NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, March 20th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
76ers won three of last four games, covered 15 of last 18 games. Four of their last five games stayed under. Magic lost four of last five games; they’re 4-9 vs spread in last 13 home games. Four of their last six games stayed under the total. Road team won six of last seven Philly-Orlando games; 76ers won three of last five visits to Magic Kingdom. Six of last eight series games went over.
Atlanta lost its last three games; they’re 5-7 vs spread in last 12 road games. Three of their last four road games stayed under. Charlotte lost three of last four games; 3-10 vs spread in last 13 home games. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Hornets won three of last four games with Atlanta; Hawks lost four of last five visits here (0-4-1 vs spread). Last seven series games stayed under the total.
Utah lost three of last five games; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven road games- their last three games stayed under the total. Pacers won their last four home games; 5-0-1 vs spread in game following their last six losses. Under is 12-2 in their last 14 games. Jazz won their last three games with Indiana, but they lost four of last five visits here. Three of last four series games went over.
Washington lost three of last four games; they’re 9-4-2 vs spread in last 15 road games. Over is 9-1 in their last ten games. Boston won three of last four games; they won/covered last three home games. Under is 11-1-2 in their last 14 games. Celtics won five of last seven games with Washington; last two series games went over. Wizards lost last four visits to Boston (0-4 vs spread).
Nuggets won/covered four of last five games, including last three on road. Seven of their last nine road games stayed under. Houston won four of last five games; they’re 7-10 vs spread in last 17 home games. Eight of their last ten home games went over. Rockets won six of last nine games with Denver; Nuggets lost two of last three games played here. Under is 3-2 in last five series games.
Golden State won its last three games; they’re 1-7 vs spread in last eight road games. Under is 11-1 in their last 12 games. Thunder won/covered last five games; they’re 10-2 vs spread in last 12 home games. Three of their last four games went over. Warriors won their last six games with Oklahoma City, beating them by 26-21-16 this season. Teams split last four series games played here- four of last five series games stayed under the total.
New York lost four of last five games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight road games. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Clippers lost three of last four games; they’re 3-7 vs spread in last ten home games. Under is 6-3-2 in their last 11 games. Knicks lost their last nine games with the Clippers (2-7 vs spread); they lost last four series games played here (2-2 vs spread). Seven of last nine series games stayed under.
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets
The matchup between Hornets and Hawks at Spectrum Center in Charlotte has the signs of a low-scoring game that makes 'Under' a good choice.
Hawks have made a habit of playing 'Under' recently posting 10 'Under', 4 'Over' with 1 'Push'. The Hornets have also shown a habit of playing 'Under' in front of the home audience of late recording 12 'Under', 3 'Over'.
Matching that, 'Under' has been the correct betting option in six straight meetings between Bugs-Hawks and in seven of the past eight encounters.
Another positive for 'Under' gamblers. Hawks are 10-2 'Under' running the hardwood vs a division opponent. Finally, the fact Bugs are off a win vs Wizards fits perfectly. Teams have tended to play 'Under' this season after beating Washington posting 19 'Under', 7 'Over'.
Inside the Paint - Monday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Now that the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournaments have concluded, the NBA will step in slowly and take over the national attention on the hardwood once again.
Bettors finishing or starting their weeks on Sunday watched the favorites go 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread while the ‘over’ produced a 7-1 record.
Monday’s slate has seven games on tap, which includes a nationally televised double-header and that’s where we begin.
Game of the Night – Golden State at Oklahoma City
The Warriors (55-14 SU, 31-36-2 ATS) and Thunder (40-29 SU, 39-29-1 ATS) will meet for fourth and final time this season on Monday from the Chesapeake Energy Arena. The last meeting at this venue didn’t turn out so well for the Oklahoma City, who were blasted 130-114 by Golden State on Feb. 11.
Including that win, the Warriors have and covered all three games this season versus the Thunder by an average of 21 points per game.
The big difference for this matchup is the status of Golden State forward Kevin Durant, who is still ‘out’ with a knee injury. In the three games against his former team this season, the All-Star posted 37.7 PPG and 9.3 rebounds while connecting on 63 percent of his shots from 3-point land.
You can make a case that Golden State is still solid with the trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green but it's obvious that it's nowhere close to the level with KD in the lineup.
Oddsmakers opened Golden State as a two-point road favorite for Monday and the Warriors have gone 26-10 as visitors this season but are just 14-21-1 versus the number.
The Thunder have been a great bet at home (26-9 SU, 24-10-1 ATS) this season and they’ve won and covered six of the last seven in front of its fans. OKC has won its last two games as a home underdog and is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS overall on the season.
Billy Donovan’s team has been a very streaky this season and they enter this matchup with momentum, winners in their last five games. The defense has been outstanding during this span, holding opponents to 99 PPG. Keeping Golden State and the league’s best offense (116.2 PPG) in check will be a much stiffer test but the Warriors haven’t been as prolific on the road (112.9 PPG).
The Warriors come into this game with some defensive swagger as well, holding its last two opponents to 92 points apiece. Albeit the wins and covers came versus the Magic and Bucks, Golden State needed a couple shots of confidence after roasting bettors with a 1-10 ATS drought (6-5 SU).
Monday’s total opened 221 and a couple shops moved to 222½ and that seems a little strange based on the form from the Warriors. Golden State has watched the ‘under’ cash in six straight and 11 of their last 12 games. Plus, they’ve been the best ‘under’ bet in the NBA on the road this season (25-11, 69%).
Golden State holds a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference playoff race over San Antonio but it’s future odds to win the NBA Finals have been dropped to even money (Bet $100 to win $100).
We Meet Again
Denver (33-36 SU, 37-31 ATS) and Houston (48-22 SU, 40-30 ATS) will complete their home-and-home matchup on Monday night from the Toyota Center.
The pair met Saturday and the Rockets stopped the Nuggets 109-105 as 2½-point road favorites at the Pepsi Center. Denver did play with a short-handed squad as forwards Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari both sat out. Chandler is possible to return for the rematch but Gallinari remains 'doubtful' with a knee injury.
Houston didn’t shoot well from the field, going 5-of-24 (21%) from 3-point land and Saturday’s win was the first this season when making less than 10 triples. The Rockets made up for the poor shooting with a solid 28-of-35 performance from the free throw line.
Including this win, Houston is now 2-0 versus Denver this season and both wins came on the road. Prior to those outcomes, the Nuggets had won and covered three straight in this series.
Despite the loss, Denver has gone 8-4 both SU and ATS since the All-Star break. Also, the Nuggets haven’t dropped two straight games during this span and they’ve gone 3-1 on the road.
Houston doesn’t lose often at home (25-9 SU) but it’s certainly not a great team to back at the betting counter (16-18 ATS) either.
The Nuggets are currently holding onto the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and will likely see an early exit in the postseason because they haven’t proven themselves versus quality opponents. Against wining clubs, Denver has gone 9-22 this season while Houston has produced an eye opening 34-6 mark against clubs below .500.
For what it’s worth, Houston has gone 9-4 versus the Northwest Division this season while Denver has struggled with a 3-9 mark against the Southwest.
Saturday’s total closed as high as 241 and the game never had a shot to get there. Denver is tied for the best ‘over’ mark in the league with a 43-25 record to the high side. Houston leans to the ‘over’ (36-33-1) and that includes a 19-15 mark at home.
Houston opned as a nine-point favorite on Monday and the total is hovering between 236 and 237 at most shops.
H2H Trends to Watch
The Hornets and Hawks have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last seven encounters. Tonight’s total opened 203 and jumped up to 204 as of Monday morning.
Utah has won and covered three in a row against Indiana, including a 109-100 win on Jan. 21 as a seven-point home favorite. The Jazz are listed as a three-point road favorite over the Pacers.
In the last seven meetings, the winner of the Boston-Washington matchup has scored 111 points or more. The Wizards have won two of three this season while posting 123 and 118 in its victories.
The Clippers have won nine straight against the Knicks, which includes a 119-115 comeback win on Feb. 8 as one-point road favorites. Los Angeles has gone 7-1-1 ATS during this winning streak and the ‘under’ is 7-2.
Back-to-Back Notes
There are three teams that will be playing with no rest on Monday.
Listed below are their SU and ATS records, plus any notable trends that are in play.
Philadelphia (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS) – The 76ers have been a great look on no rest recently, especially versus the number. The club is 6-1 ATS in its last seven and they’ve won four of those games. Philadelphia has seen the ‘over’ go 11-5 and that includes a 6-2 run to the high side in its last eight B2B matchups.
Monday’s Opponent – at Orlando (+5)
Indiana (4-11 SU, 4-11 ATS) – The Pacers have struggled all season on zero days rest but they did win their last back-to-back spot, a 98-77 victory on Mar. 15 over Charlotte as three-point favorites. Indiana has had trouble scoring of late, averaging just 97.3 PPG in its last six. Not surprising, the ‘under’ has gone 5-1 in those games.
Monday’s Opponent – vs. Utah (+2.5)
Boston (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) – After winning six straight and nine of 10 on no rest, Boston has surrendered three consecutive losses when facing back-to-back situations. The defense gave up 116, 114 and 104 points in those losses.
Monday’s Opponent – vs. Washington (-3)
Warriors, Thunder meet
By: StatFox.com
Russell Westbrook and the Thunder take on the Warriors in Oklahoma City on Monday night.
The Warriors have had some trouble over the past few weeks, but people have still overreacted a bit. Golden State is still at the top of the Western Conference, and the team would have home court advantage throughout the course of the postseason if the season ended today. This matchup with Oklahoma City will, however, be a tough one. These teams have some bad blood this season, as SF Kevin Durant left the Thunder to play for the Warriors after Golden State beat Oklahoma City in a seven-game series in last year’s Western Conference Finals. This has turned into something of a rivalry due to the emotions, but the results don’t really suggest that this has been a competitive matchup. Golden State has won all three matchups with Oklahoma City by double digits this season. That includes a win in Chesapeake Energy Arena, where the crowd was very hostile towards Durant. It is worth noting, however, that Durant is not going to be playing in this game. Durant hurt his knee against the Wizards on Feb. 28 and he has missed each of the past nine games for Golden State. He is expected to be back for the postseason, but that is no guarantee.
With Durant out, PG Steph Curry (25.0 PPG, 6.3 APG, 1.8 SPG) is going to need to take over for Golden State on Monday. In three meetings with the Thunder this season, Curry is averaging 23.7 PPG, 8.0 APG and 2.3 SPG. He is, however, shooting just 34.8% from three in those games. He’ll be hoping to be a bit better from there in this one, but he’ll also need to play well defensively. If he does not hold his own when matched up with Westbrook then the Thunder will likely win this game. SG Klay Thompson (22.1 PPG) will also spend some time guarding Westbrook. Thompson can be one of the better perimeter defenders in the league when he’s engaged, and he must be on Monday. He’ll also need to get hot from deep, as the Warriors will need his scoring in this game. They’ll also need PF Draymond Green (10.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 7.2 APG, 2.1 SPG, 1.5 BPG) to continue to play his elite two-way game. If he can defend the inside then the Thunder are going to have a lot of trouble in this game. It is, however, possible that Golden State will need to play him more at the four. Oklahoma City is huge up front, and Green might have trouble with that.
If the Thunder are going to win their first game against the Warriors this season then this would be it. With Durant out, it’s probably safe to say that PG Russell Westbrook (31.7 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 10.3 APG, 1.7 SPG) is going to be the best player on the floor in this one. Westbrook is still averaging a triple-double this season, and it’s hard to imagine him not posting yet another one on Monday. He’s going to attack the basket relentlessly in this game, but he’ll also do his best to get his teammates involved. It’d be big if guys like SG Victor Oladipo (16.4 PPG, 1.2 SPG), C Enes Kanter (14.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and C Steven Adams (11.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 1.0 BPG) can step it up here. Oladipo has been playing well recently, and he can take pressure off of Westbrook on the perimeter. Kanter and Adams, meanwhile, will need to dominate the paint.
Monday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
Atlanta vs. Charlotte
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Charlotte (-6); Total set at 204.5
With only a few weeks left in the regular season, the Charlotte Hornets are trying to do everything they can to leapfrog multiple teams in the East and sneak into the postseason.
Two wins over their last six games hasn't exactly helped that cause, but tonight they host an Atlanta team that they are already 2-0 SU and ATS against.
Will it be three in a row tonight or will the Atlanta Hawks finally step up and beat this pesky Hornets squad for the first time this season?
Atlanta isn't exactly playing great basketball at the moment either as they have lost three in a row, with the last two being double-digit defeats when they entered the game as favorites. They won't have F Paul Millsap available to them tonight as he'll sit with a sore knee and that's a big loss for Atlanta considering he scored 20+ in both prior meetings with Charlotte. Millsap was one of the few Hawks that did have two solid games vs. Charlotte this year but this team is much different then they were a few months ago and the last meeting between these two was back in mid-December.
The Hawks were wavering back and forth between the decision to “tank or not tank” at the time, and dealt away Kyle Korver a few weeks later. Clearly Atlanta thought it was best to take their run at a title this year as they now sit 5th in the East and with Charlotte well behind them now (11th), this is not a situation where the Hawks can afford to no-show again.
Granted, both of those earlier defeats came in close contests (lost by 4 and 8 points) but with how the rest of the season has gone for both teams since their last meeting, six points is a few too many to be giving the better team tonight, even if they have lost three in a row.
That being said, the better betting opportunity might be on the total tonight as the majority of bettors according to VegasInsider.com numbers are riding with the prevailing trend of these two teams playing low-scoring games.
VegasInsider.com shows about 90% of the bets so far on this total are on the 'under' as both meetings this year cashed that side, as well as the last seven meetings between the two clubs. However, the total has actually moved up a point despite all that action to the contrary and in spots like that it's better to side with the move and be in the visible minority.
I've already touched on the fact that both teams aren't playing great at the moment, and for Atlanta, it's been poor defensive play that's been at the root of the issues. The Hawks have allowed three straight foes to reach the century mark against them, and overall on the year they allow 104.5 points per game. Combine that number with Charlotte giving up an average of 104.2 points per game this year and there is significant room for error on a number of 204.5.
Finally, despite the long string of 'unders' the past few years, the last 17 times they've played in Charlotte the 'over' has gone 12-5, and the Hawks are on a 9-3 O/U run at the moment when a losing team is on the other side of the floor.
Streaks like this are meant to be broken and with bettors flooding to the low side of this number, the number going up, and the fact that both teams have to view this game as a must-win and will rely on their strength (offense) to get it done, this is a great spot to go against the grain and take the high side of this total.