NBA Knowledge
Hot Teams
-- Rockets won seven of their last eight games (3-0 last three AU).
-- Toronto won three of last four home games (3-5 last eight HF).
-- Kings won four of their last five games (3-7 last ten AU).
-- Portland won its last three games, by 3-6-6 points (5-3 last eight HF).
Cold Teams
-- Celtics lost five of last seven games (5-1 last six AU).
-- Charlotte lost six of its last eight games (4-8 last 12 HF).
-- Lakers lost 11 of their last 15 games (7-2 last nine AU).
-- 76ers lost four of their last five games (2-0 HF).
-- Atlanta lost four of last six games; they've clinched home court thru the Eastern Conference playoffs.
-- Bucks lost seven of their last eight games (4-1 last five AU).
-- Jazz lost four of their last five games (2-1 AF).
-- Minnesota lost four of its last five games (0-3 last three HU).
-- Memphis lost last three games, by 22-23-14. (2-5 last seven HF).
-- Suns lost last three games, by 9-6-12 points (5-1 last six AU).
Series Records
-- Celtics lost three of last four visits to Charlotte.
-- 76ers lost seven of last ten games with Lakers.
-- Home side won last ten Houston-Toronto games.
-- Hawks won nine of last ten games with Milwaukee.
-- Road team won five of last six Utah-Minnesota games.
-- Kings lost nine of last ten games with Memphis.
-- Suns are 5-3 in their last eight games with Portland.
Totals
-- Seven of last eight Charlotte home games went over.
-- Last three Laker-Philly games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Toronto home games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Milwaukee-Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Under is 4-1 in Utah's last five visits to Minnesota.
-- Six of last seven King-Grizzlies games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Phoenix-Portland games stayed under.
Back-to-Backs
-- Celtics are 11-3 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Philly is 5-3 vs spread at home if they played night before.
-- Lakers are 5-1 vs spread on road if they were on road night before.
-- Rockets are 6-3 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Memphis is 2-3 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Minnesota is 2-5 vs spread at home if it played night before.
East vs West
SU: West 239-169 ATS: West 210-195-3
East teams HF vs West: 52-56
East teams HU vs West: 45-50
West teams HF vs East: 81-78-3
West teams HU vs East: 24-19
Armadillosports.com
NBA Eastern Conference Betting Road Map
By Sean Murphy
Covers.com
The playoff picture hasn't gotten any clearer in the Eastern Conference, with no fewer than four teams battling it out for the eighth and final playoff spot. Things are more settled at the top, where the Hawks own an eight-game edge over the second place Cavs.
Spread watch
The Boston Celtics are reeling at the absolute worst time, losers of five of their last seven games and winless ATS over their last three contests.
There is reason to believe they can turn things around this week, however. Boston will sandwich a pair of manageable road games around back-to-back contests at TD Garden. All four games are winnable, coming against the Hornets, Pacers, Bucks and Raptors. I expect to see the C's go 3-1 ATS at worst.
Note that Boston remains 10 games over .500 from an ATS perspective this season. This isn't the time to jump ship in my opinion.
Total watch
The 'under' has been a solid bet in games involving the Milwaukee Bucks but not so much lately.
Milwaukee has seen four of its last six games go 'over' the total but that's a short-term trend that will hold little weight this week. The Bucks have a big week ahead, with four games on tap against Eastern Conference opponents. It starts on Monday in Atlanta as Milwaukee aims to respond following a poor defensive showing against the sharp-shooting Warriors on Saturday night.
With major playoff implications, I expect to see the Bucks tighten things up considerably. Take a good look at the 'under' when they take the floor this week.
Injury impact
Sunday's narrow win over the lowly Philadelphia 76ers may have been a costly one for the Cleveland Cavaliers as they lost both Kevin Love and Iman Shumpert to injuries. The extent of those injuries is not known, so for now they're both listed as day-to-day.
Perhaps it's a good thing that the Cavs don't play again until Thursday when they host the Miami Heat. Needless to say, these injuries are worth paying attention to as we've already seen Cleveland cool off slightly, going just 3-4 ATS over its last seven games following an extended hot streak against the number.
After Thursday's game against the Heat, the Cavs will enjoy another couple of days off before hosting the Chicago Bulls on Sunday.
Playbook
At this time last week the Indiana Pacers' biggest concern was a sagging offense that had played a major role in a five-game losing streak that ultimately would reach six before it was snapped last Wednesday against Washington.
We've certainly seen the Pacers step up their game offensively, however, scoring 100 points or more in five straight games. They've managed to win two of their last three contests, so the turnaround at that end of the floor has paid dividends.
Expect to see the Pacers continue to push the pace as they face four beatable Eastern Conference foes this week. Don't be surprised if their run of five consecutive 'overs' continues and they may be worth a shot against the number as well.
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
www.sportspic.com
Houston at Toronto
Two teams capable of an explosive offense clash in a non-conference tilt at the Air Canada Center Monday when Raptors (104.2) host Rockets (103.4). The home team considered to have an advantage over the visitors a result of playing in familiar facilities and in front of supportive fans the betting market has pegged Raptors -1.5 to -2.0 point favorite. However, the view from here is that Raptors can't be trusted with its defensive woes allowing the competition 106.6 points per 100 possessions since the break posting a 7-13 SU/ATS record. Not only are Raptors 7-16 ATS facing a team with a winning record of .600 or higher, the Purple Dino's have faltered against the betting line running the hardwood against teams averaging 102 or more points/game (9-17 ATS). Finally, -3.5 or less home chalk has not worked well for Raptors, they're 3-8 ATS last eleven situations including 0-3 ATS this season. Factor all that data together and the arrow is clearly pointing toward taking red hot Rockets on a 7-1 (6-2 ATS) tear dropping 106.5 per game through the iron.
NBA Pick of the Day - Lakers at 76ers
By Rohit Ghosh
AccuScore.com
Heading into Monday night's matchup, the Philadelphia 76ers own the third-worst record in the NBA, just barely ahead of the fourth-worst Los Angeles Lakers. The 76ers will be looking for their third home victory in four chances. Don't forget, the league's third-worst record has 15.6 percent chance at winning the top pick at the NBA draft lottery, compared to the 11.9 percent chance for the fourth-worst record.
Line: 76ers -4.5, Total: 192.5
AccuScore has the 76ers as slight 55.4 percent favorites to win Monday night. The average score after AccuScore ran its 10,000-plus simulations is 100.6-99.9.
AccuScore Best Bet: There's a 58.4 percent chance the Lakers cover a +4.5 spread, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. In the past week, AccuScore has gone 28-23 (54.9%, +270 units) when picking against the spread. When the home team has been favored by 4 to 5.5 points, AccuScore has gone 3-0 (100%, +300 units).
Keep in mind that Philadelphia is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games at home.
Projected Leaders
Jordan Clarkson: 14 points, 4 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 steal, 2 TOs
Nerlens Noel: 15 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 2 TOs
Monday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
HOUSTON ROCKETS (50-23) at TORONTO RAPTORS (43-30)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Toronto -1.5, Total: 208
The Houston Rockets will attempt to extend their winning streak to five games when they head north and take on the Toronto Raptors this Monday night.
The Rockets have continued to be one of the elite teams out west as they have won seven of their past eight contests (6-2 ATS), winning by an average of 7.9 PPG over that period. Three of those victories came on the road as they put up 100+ points in all but two of the outings. They had a tough draw on Sunday when they traveled to Washington as 2-point favorites and came away with a 99-91 win. Six different players hit double-digits in points as they overcame a 19 turnover game with the defense holding the Wizards to 29-of-75 shooting (39% FG).
The Raptors certainly haven’t been the same since the All-Star break, going 7-13 both SU and ATS, but have been a little better of late with victories in five of their past nine games. The offense has made better than 46% of their shots in each of the past four contests as they put up 101.8 PPG. An easy opponent came into town on Friday when they hosted the Lakers as 8.5-point favorites and were victorious by a score of 94-83. They held L.A. to a putrid 34.5% shooting and the only reason it was as close as it was is because Toronto allowed the Lakers to grab 16 offensive rebounds. Houston has managed a solid 23-13 SU (20-15-1 ATS) when playing as the road team and will be facing a Raptors group which is 25-13 SU (16-22 ATS) at Air Canada Centre.
This is the second time that these teams have matched up on the year and it was all the Rockets in the first game as they dominated in a 98-76 win as 2-point home favorites. Neither team shot better than 42% from the floor as they each had 23 turnovers, but Toronto was worse with a mere 24-of-77 shots going in (33% FG). Trends show that Toronto has gone 8-18 ATS (31%) after a win by 10 points or more this year as Houston has managed a poor 13-24 ATS record (35%) in road games after having won five or six of its past seven games in the past two years. The Rockets will be quite thin with all their injuries as C Dwight Howard (Rest), PF Donatas Motiejunas (Back), PG Patrick Beverley (Wrist), PF Terrence Jones (Ribs) and SF Kostas Papanikolaou (Ankle) are all expected to be out while PG Kyle Lowry (Back) is listed as doubtful for the Raptors.
Houston has been a great offensive team for the past few years and is once again as it is putting up 103.4 PPG (6th in league) on 44.1% shooting (10th-worst in league). On the defensive side of things, the Rockets are letting opponents get 100.1 PPG (16th in league) with 44.1% of shots going in (10th in league). SG James Harden (27.2 PPG, 7.0 APG, 5.8 RPG, 1.9 SPG) has made just 40.4% of his shots in the past five contests but is still averaging 28.4 PPG as he made 10 free throws per game. He had a sub-par performance, by his standards, the last time he met Toronto with 20 points on 5-of-12 shooting as he added seven assists, five rebounds and two steals.
SF Trevor Ariza (12.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.9 SPG) has been doing better from the field recently with 47% of his shots dropping in the month of March but he had just nine points and five rebounds against the Raptors in February. SG Corey Brewer (11.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG) has been vital in this team’s success and has hit double-digit points in four of the past five games despite shooting a mere 39% from the field. He had one of his best performances of the year in the win over Toronto with 26 points, 10 rebounds and five steals.
The Raptors are the best offensive group in the Eastern Conference as they are netting 104.2 PPG (3rd in league) and making 45.4% of their shots (13th in league). They haven’t been able to do much on defense, though, with their opposition scoring 101.2 PPG (9th-worst in league) behind 46.1% shooting (4th-worst in league). SG DeMar DeRozan (19.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG) has been playing a ton of minutes in March (38.2 MPG) but is coming off a 1-for-10 shooting performance with six points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in the win over the Lakers. He was also poor in the loss against Houston earlier in the season with 10 points (4-for-14 FG), three steals and a block.
SG Louis Williams (15.1 PPG, 1.1 SPG) has been one of the most explosive offensive bench players this year and has scored 18.3 PPG over the past three outings. He did not play in the one game facing the Rockets this year and had six points with eight assists in a single contest off the bench last season. C Jonas Valanciunas (12.1 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.2 BPG) had one of his better recent offensive showings against L.A. with 19 points on 8-of-12 shooting as he added seven rebounds and a block. He had 11 points, seven rebounds and three steals when his team was dismantled in the last matchup with Houston.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS (36-37) at ATLANTA HAWKS (55-18)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Atlanta -8.5, Total: 194
The Bucks continue to fight for playoff positioning when they head to Atlanta Monday and face a Hawks team that has already clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Bucks hosted the Warriors on Saturday and lost 108-95 as 5-point home underdogs. Milwaukee had won two straight games coming into that one and will now look to turn things around quickly against Atlanta. The team is allowing 107.5 PPG over the past two contests and must find a way to play better defense moving forward.
The Hawks, meanwhile, lost their most recent game 115-110 as 6.5-point underdogs in Charlotte. They had won-and-covered in two straight games before that loss and the difference was that they held their opponents to just 84.5 PPG in the victories. The Hawks will need to be better defensively against Milwaukee and they’ll also need to get back to playing their efficient brand of offense.
These teams have met three times this season and Atlanta is 2-1 SU and 1-1-1 ATS in those games. The home team has not won a single game SU in this series. Over the past three seasons, however, the Hawks are 9-1 SU and 6-3 ATS against the Bucks. They are 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS when playing as the host in that time.
Milwaukee is 15-6 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive Unders this season and 19-10 ATS as a road underdog as well. Atlanta, however, is 24-11 ATS after two straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds this season. SF Jared Dudley (Back) is doubtful for the Bucks, who are already without SF Jabari Parker (Knee) and SF Damien Inglis (Foot) for the season. PG Jeff Teague (Ankle) is doubtful for the Hawks, who are without PF Mike Scott (Toe) indefinitely.
The Bucks are still playing to determine where they’ll be seeded in the Eastern Conference playoffs and they need PG Michael Carter-Williams (14.5 PPG, 6.8 APG, 5.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG) to play much better. He had just eight points and three assists in 22 minutes against Golden State last game, picking up three personal fouls and also turning the ball over three times in the process. He has not been able to avoid foul trouble recently and his lack of ball security is alarming. Carter-Williams needs to slow down and start playing much more efficiently moving forward.
PF Ersan Ilyasova (11.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG) had a bad game against the Warriors, scoring just eight points (1-for-10 FG, 0-for-5 3PT) in 23 minutes of action. He had been on a tear for the team, scoring 15+ points in five of the six games before losing to Golden State. He should be able to play a little better in this one, as it’s unlikely that a good outside shooter (37% 3PT) will be that inaccurate two games in a row.
SG Khris Middleton (13.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.5 SPG) is averaging 14.0 PPG in three games against the Hawks this season. Middleton will really need to step it up in this one if Ilyasova were to somehow not find his touch. With Dudley out, Middleton is one of the only reliable shooters on the team (42% 3PT).
SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (12.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.1 BPG. 1.0 SPG) has really struggled against the Hawks this season, averaging just 10.3 PPG on 36.7% shooting from the field in three meetings. He’ll need to find a way to be more effective in this one.
C Zaza Pachulia (8.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0 SPG) comes into this meeting with his former team on a tear. He’s now scored in double figures in 10 straight games and will need to do the same against Al Horford Monday.
The Hawks have been one of the best teams in basketball all season long, but they have not looked that way in recent weeks. The team needs to get back on track heading into the playoffs or it will be very prone to an early round upset.
PG Dennis Schroder (9.9 PPG, 4.2 APG) has been playing outstanding over the past five games for the Hawks. He’s averaging 15.8 PPG, 6.8 APG and 3.2 RPG in 26.8 MPG in those contests. Schroder’s play is crucial for this Hawks team because PG Jeff Teague (16.3 PPG, 7.0 APG) is out with an injured ankle.
C Al Horford (15.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.3 BPG) was given the game off against the Hornets on Saturday and will now be fresh for this meeting with his old teammate, Zaza Pachulia. Horford is averaging 16.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 2.0 BPG against the Bucks this season and will need to play the same brand of two-way basketball on Monday.
PF Paul Millsap (17.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.0 BPG) is coming off of a day off as well and had been scorching hot before resting. He was averaging 21.8 PPG in the four games before not playing against the Hornets. The Bucks don’t defend power forwards that well and Millsap should be able to take advantage of that.
SG Kyle Korver (12.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.5 APG) also got the game off against Charlotte Saturday. Korver has struggled against Milwaukee this season, averaging just 7.0 PPG on 25% shooting in three meetings with the team. He’ll need to knock down his outside shots in this one or the Hawks might not have the spacing they need to win.
PHOENIX SUNS (38-36) at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (47-25)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Portland -8.5, Total: 199.5
The Blazers look to win their fourth straight game when they host the struggling Suns Monday.
The Suns hosted the Thunder on Sunday and lost 109-97 as 2.5-point favorites. Phoenix has lost three straight games both SU and ATS and has failed to score 100 or more points in four straight contests. This is a team that wins games because of its offense and it will need to start putting up points or it will miss the playoffs once again.
The Blazers, on the other hand, have now won three straight games after beating the Nuggets 120-114 as 9-point home favorites. These teams have met three times this season and the Blazers are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in those contests. They blew out the Suns 108-87 in the only home game they’ve played against the team this season and are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS when hosting Phoenix over the past three seasons.
The Suns are an impressive 48-25 ATS in road games over the past two seasons, and are also 29-16 ATS in road games after playing a game as a favorite in that time. The Blazers are 14-1 ATS after three straight wins by six points or less since 1996. SG Brandon Knight (Ankle) and SG Marcus Thornton (Toe) are questionable for Phoenix and SG Wesley Matthews (Achilles) is out for the season for Portland.
The Suns have struggled recently and they’ll need to string together a big winning streak or they will miss the playoffs this season. PG Eric Bledsoe (17.2 PPG, 6.0 APG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG) has done everything he can to will his team to victories, averaging 20.2 PPG, 5.6 APG, 4.6 RPG and 1.4 SPG over the past five contests. Bledsoe will need to have a good game against the Blazers on Monday. He struggled with just 13 points and seven rebounds on 5-for-20 shooting from the floor against Portland last Friday and can’t afford to do it again in this one.
PF Markieff Morris (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.3 SPG) and SF Marcus Morris (10.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG) combined to rack up 34 points and 21 rebounds in that game against Portland. The two of them were able to find their shots offensively, but neither had an answer for LaMarcus Aldridge on the defensive end. One of them will need to step it up and defend at a high level on Monday.
SG Brandon Knight (17.0 PPG, 5.2 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.4 SPG) returned from his eight game absence to face Oklahoma City on Sunday. He was awful in the game though, finishing with just three points (1-for-10 FG, 0-for-6 3PT) and four assists in 22 minutes. He is questionable in this game, but he’ll really need to find his stroke if he plays. He is not a great defender, so his presence can hurt the team when he is not knocking down shots.
The Blazers have gotten themselves on track recently, winning three straight games after a five game losing streak. PF LaMarcus Aldridge (23.6 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1.0 BPG) was a monster against the Nuggets on Saturday, pouring in 32 points and also grabbing 11 boards in 35 minutes of action. The last time he faced the Suns, he could not miss in crunch time and was ultimately the reason Portland came away with a road victory. He’ll need to continue to use his size to his advantage against a small Suns frontcourt.
PG Damian Lillard (21.1 PPG, 6.3 APG, 4.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG) struggled against the Suns last game, finishing with just 11 points (4-for-15 FG) and four assists in what was a very off game for the All-Star. Lillard is just 8-for-26 over the past two games and needs to find his stroke soon because the playoffs are quickly approaching.
SF Nicolas Batum (9.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.1 SPG) had just five points in 32 minutes the last time he faced Phoenix. He did have nine rebounds and five assists in that game though, and followed it up with 15 points and seven assists in a win over Denver the following night. Batum is averaging 17.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG and 5.7 APG in three games against the Suns this season and will need to be more effective as a scorer than he was in the most recent meeting.
C Robin Lopez (9.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.5 BPG) was big in the victory over Phoenix Friday, finishing with 12 points, 10 boards and a block in 29 minutes. He’ll need to continue to to protect the rim moving forward.