NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, May 13

Heat at Bulls: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (7.5, 186.5)

Heat lead best-of-seven series 2-1.

The Chicago Bulls badly need victory to maintain a realistic chance of the winning the Eastern Conference semifinal series when they host the Miami Heat in Monday’s Game 4. The Heat have a 2-1 edge in the best-of-seven series and a third straight win would severely hinder Chicago’s attempts at an upset. The fifth-seeded Bulls are playing a physical brand of ball against the top-seeded Heat and figure to again be without starters Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich.

Miami star LeBron James was less than thrilled with Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau calling him a flopper after Game 3 and Thibodeau’s pointed comments about the officiating drew him a $35,000 fine on Sunday. James got mixed up with Chicago’s Nazr Mohammed and was called for a technical foul while Mohammed was ejected for shoving James to the floor. “I play an aggressive game,” James said. “I don’t flop. I’ve never been one of those guys.” Deng (complications from a recent spinal tap) is expected to miss his sixth straight game while Hinrich (calf) will likely sit out for the seventh consecutive game.

ABOUT THE HEAT: Center Chris Bosh was a force in Game 3 with 20 points and 19 rebounds after a quiet first two games in which he totaled 22 points and 11 boards. “I try to get behind the defense to get easy baskets, but if I move to the open spot, usually they find me,” Bosh said. “Those are my opportunities to be aggressive. If I’m open, I’m going to shoot or make the extra pass if need be.” Backup guard Norris Cole has been sensational in the series. Cole has made 16-of-20 shots – including all eight of his 3-pointers – while averaging 14.3 points.

ABOUT THE BULLS: Chicago has very little depth with Deng and Hinrich joining guard Derrick Rose (knee) on the sidelines and the situation was a factor in the Game 3 loss. Miami had a 36-8 edge in bench points and four Chicago starters played 42 or more minutes. Forward Jimmy Butler played 48 minutes for the second time in the series and the fourth time in five games. Butler had 21 points and 14 rebounds in Game 1 and said Sunday that the physical play is going to continue. “I feel like that’s what it’s been from the very beginning and I don’t expect it to change,” Butler said. “We’re coming in and we want to be the aggressor.”

TRENDS:

* Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on 2 days of rest.
* Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 6-1 in Bulls’ last seven overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Heat’s last six Conference Semifinals games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Miami averaged 109.5 points in its two victories after scoring only 86 in the Game 1 loss.

2. James had a series-best 25 points in Game 3 and is averaging 22.7 points and 7.7 assists.

3. Bulls C Joakim Noah has two double-doubles in the series and five over his last seven games.

Thunder at Grizzlies: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5, 184.5)

Grizzlies lead best-of-seven series 2-1.

The Memphis Grizzlies haven’t forgotten the opportunity they let get away two seasons ago. They are in a similar situation Monday when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinal series. Memphis had a 2-1 lead over the Thunder in the 2011 semis but Oklahoma City notched an epic triple-overtime victory and eventually won the series. A win would put the Grizzlies in position of winning the series in Oklahoma City on Wednesday.

Thunder forward Kevin Durant is well aware of what happened in 2011 and doesn’t see the deficit as a cause for worry or panic. “Same situation we was in a few years ago, so we know how to handle it,” Durant said on Sunday. Memphis is facing better odds this time around with Oklahoma City star Russell Westbrook sidelined but know a loss will even the series with the Thunder having two of the final three at home. “We’re in the same position now,” said guard Tony Allen, “so it’s time for us to conquer that moment and take advantage of these games ahead of us and try to win two games.”

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City shot just 36.4 percent from the field in the Game 3 loss to drop its series accuracy rate to 39.9. The Thunder have been bottled up by the Memphis defense and miss the way Westbrook opens up the floor for easy scoring opportunities. Forward Serge Ibaka has been woeful with 12-for-39 shooting and guard Thabo Sefolosha is averaging only 4.3 points. Backup guard Kevin Martin scored 25 points in Game 1 and has just 19 on 8-of-28 shooting over the last two games. “This is a broken record but I know we can hit shots,” Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks said. “I’ve seen the ball go in the basket many, many times with our team and I have confidence that will happen and hopefully soon.”

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Allen is known for his standout defense but he has averaged 13 points – and 3.5 steals – in the two Memphis wins. He’s not a very good shooter but has stellar court presence and his hustle creates opportunities as well as his thefts on the defensive end. He pairs well with solid point guard Mike Conley to make things tough on opponents. Conley dropped to 14 points in Game 3 after his epic performance in Game 2 when he hit the go-ahead basket and had 26 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. Power forward Zach Randolph is coming off a subpar eight-point outing but is averaging 9.3 rebounds while thriving in the post with center Marc Gasol (averages of 21.3 points and eight rebounds).

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Thunder’s last five road games.
* Road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Oklahoma City is averaging just 89 points in the series. The Thunder averaged 105.7 during the regular season.

2. Durant has three straight double-doubles in the series and is averaging 32 points and 12.3 rebounds.

3. Grizzlies reserve F Quincy Pondexter is shooting 55.6 percent in the series and has made five 3-pointers.

Monday's Playoff Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Monday NBA card showcases two series going in different directions, as one road team and one home club seek a 3-1 series advantage. The Heat goes for a third straight victory over the Bulls, while the Grizzlies seek another home triumph against the Thunder. We'll begin in the Windy City as Miami and Chicago look to control their emotions in another high-intensity matchup.

Heat (-7½, 187) at Bulls

The defending champions overcame the physical (and sometimes mindless) play of Chicago in Game 3, as the Heat grabbed a 2-1 advantage with a 104-94 victory. Miami barely cashed as 8 ½-point favorites, needing several free throws down the stretch to capture its fifth cover in seven postseason contests.

LeBron James didn't shoot well from the floor, hitting just 6-of-17 shots, but finished with 25 points, while being on the receiving end of a nice shove from Chicago's Nazr Mohammed in the second quarter. Mohammed was ejected, as the Bulls' bench provided just eight points in the loss. Chris Bosh stepped up with a 20-point, 19-rebound effort, while Norris Cole continued to have a solid series off the bench by putting up 18 points, including 3-for-3 from long-distance.

The Bulls haven't been able to figure out the Heat since a major upset in the series opener, getting outscored by 47 points in the last eight quarters. Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich are expected to be out again tonight after missing each of the previous four contests, while Derrick Rose isn't likely to return anytime soon. Chicago is actually sitting in an opportunistic spot tonight, as the Bulls own a 9-1 ATS record the last 10 games off a home loss dating back to early January.

Miami continues to be an ATS machine, cashing 15 of its last 19 games since having its 27-game winning streak snapped at the United Center on March 27. In this stretch, Erik Spoelstra's team has covered eight consecutive road contests, including four as a favorite of at least seven points. The Heat has not allowed over 94 points in a playoff game yet, but the Bulls are riding a 6-1 'over' run in the last seven contests.

Thunder at Grizzlies (-4½, 184½)

Oklahoma City is on the ropes right now, trailing 2-1, as the Thunder needs a strong punch to even up this series with the physical Grizzlies. Memphis is one bad fourth quarter away from being up 3-0 on the defending Western Conference champs, but the Grizzlies used a late 6-0 run to stave off OKC in Saturday's Game 3 triumph.

The Grizzlies topped the Thunder, 87-81, to barely cash as 5½-point favorites, while easily cashing the 'under' of 187½. Memphis overcame a poor offensive outing from Zach Randolph (8 points) thanks to his frontcourt mate Marc Gasol, who scored a team-high 20 points. Lionel Hollins' squad shot just 40% from the floor, but Memphis limited OKC to 36% shooting. The Thunder uncharacteristically missed seven free throws, including four misses from the normally-reliable Kevin Durant. The league's second-leading scorer put up 25 points, while Kevin Martin and Serge Ibaka combined to shoot just 12-of-34 from the field.

The series price has flipped dramatically after both teams were basically a pick-em to advance to the conference finals. Now, Memphis is listed at -310 to win this series, while OKC is +260 to win three of the next four games. If you have enough faith to believe the Thunder can reach the NBA Finals for the second straight season, the odds are favorable at 12/1 right now at Sportsbook.ag.

Since getting blown out by the Clippers in the opener of the first round, the Grizzlies have covered eight consecutive games, including all four contests at FedEx Forum. The Thunder have gone the opposite way since routing the Rockets in the playoff opener, while posting a 2-6 ATS record the last eight games. It's probably no coincidence that since Russell Westbrook's knee injury in Game 2 against Houston that the Thunder have had issues covering games.

2013 NBA Playoffs

Miami shot 50.7/51.4/60.0/50.0% in four games they beat Chicago this year, 46.2/48.1/39.7% in three losses. Miami won 14 of last 15 games overall; they're 6-1 in playoffs, with no wins by less than 10 points. Team that led at halftime won all six series games so far this season (one game was tied). Under is 4-2-1 in Heat's last seven away games. Chicago has been mentally tough in playoffs, they compete like hell, but reality is their 3rd string PG starts now. Hard to beat Miami that way.

Memphis won six of last seven games, losing by hoop in Game 1; if you want a barometer for the Thunder, check out Kevin Martin, who they got in the Harden trade- he reverted to 2-11/6-17 from floor in last two games, failing to give Oklahoma City a scoring threat to compliment the team's star, Durant. Last five series games were decided by six or less points. Thunder PG Westbrook is out for this series, which puts onus on vet PG Fisher and BC alum Jackson, who has five turnovers in 98 minutes in series, not bad. 18 of last 23 Thunder games stayed under the total. Oklahoma City covered four of last six as an underdog.

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