NBA Knowledge
Oklahoma City-Golden State
Warriors won six of last seven games with Oklahoma City; over is 6-4 in last ten series games. Thunder lost last five visits to Oakland, as Warriors covered last four. OC beat Spurs in six games; they've been off since Thursday; Golden State beat Portland in five; they've been off for one more day than Thunder. Thunder won four of last five road games. Golden State won its last six home games (5-1 vs spread).
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
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NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Oklahoma City vs Golden State
The defending champion Golden State Warriors earned their trip to the finals needing ten games (7-3 ATS) in knocking off Houston and Portland. Klay Thompson (27.2), Stephen Curry (24.8.) lead Warriors in postseason helping the team net 113.0 points per 100 possessions while allowing 98.4. Warriors manhandling visitors at Oracle Arena during regular season by an average 14.4 points/game (39-2, 22-19 ATS) have kept pedal to medal at home in second season winning by a margin of 15.8 points/game (6-0, 5-1 ATS).
Thunder lead by Kevin Durant (27.4), Russell Westbrook (25.5) advanced past Mavericks, Spurs in eleven (7-4 ATS) dropping 111.3 per 100 possessions while allowing 102.0. Thunder won at a 56.1% clip on the road during regular season (23-18) defeating opponents by 4.7 points/game but were a cash draining 17-24 against the betting line. Thunder have won four of their five road games this postseason nipping host teams by an average 2.5 points/game (4-1 ATS).
Golden State took each of the three meetings by an average 8.8 points/game during the regular season (2-0-1 ATS) including a 121-106 beatdown in Oakland as -7.5 point favorite in their last encounter.
Warriors tough nuts to crack at Oracle Arena along with four full days rest have opened -7.5 point home favorites at Bovada.lv.
West Finals Game 1 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Western Conference - Game 1
2015-16 Meetings
Feb 6, 2016 - Oklahoma City 108 at Golden State 116 (Push -8, Under 233.5)
Feb 27, 2016 - Golden State 121 at Oklahoma City 118 (Thunder +3.5, Over 233.5)
Mar 3, 2016 - Oklahoma City 106 at Golden State 121 (Warriors -7.5, Under 230)
The Warriors are probably a bit surprised that this isn’t San Antonio coming into town to begin the process of deciding the West given how both teams were tied together in the regular season. Instead, it’s Oklahoma City, but there are no illusions that it will be any easier for Golden State to return to the NBA Finals and defend their title. Although they swept all three regular-season meetings, nothing comes easy against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
Sportsbook.ag has set the series prices at -350 for favored Golden State and enticing OKC backers with a return of +275.
“Golden State swept the regular season series from Oklahoma City, but the Thunder led in the fourth quarter in two of those defeats,” notes VegasInsider NBA expert Kevin Rogers. “Oklahoma City has won four of five road games in the playoffs, while Golden State has covered five of six home playoff contests. However, the Warriors are stepping up in class after knocking out a .500 Rockets squad in the opening round and drawing an overachieving Blazers' club in the second round after the Clippers lost their top two players in the opening round.”
With all due respect to Durant and Westbrook, plot lines start with two-time reigning MVP Stephen Curry, whose knee looks like it won’t be an issue barring any setbacks in the series. Although he struggled to find a rhythm at times upon coming back for Game 4 in Portland, Curry ended up shooting 50 percent in both of his games after missing most of the first round. He averaged 34.5 points, 7 rebounds and 9.5 assists while shooting 10-for-27 from 3-point range.
Although Westbrook is his counterpart in the lineup, the initial assignment of defending Curry will fall to Andre Roberson, whose length will be a major asset in attempting to slow him down. During the regular season, the NBA’s leading scorer averaged 35.0 points in the three wins over the Thunder, shooting 48 percent as the highest-scoring team in the league posted an average of 118.7 points in the three wins, twice scoring 121.
Curry’s 3-point shooting was erratic, since he enjoyed his most prolific game on a memorable Saturday night where he went 12-for-16 from beyond the arc. You remember, that was the game he won at the buzzer in OT, drilling his NBA-record tying 12th 3-pointer to the disbelief of everyone in attendance in Oklahoma City and captivated watching at home on national television.
Curry has also had a 1-for-9 effort from beyond the arc the first time he saw the Thunder, which is still his worst shooting game of the season from 3-point range at Oracle. He shot 5-for-15 (33 pct) in the most recent meeting, well below his regular season average of 45 percent. So, the Thunder have been able to make his life difficult, but they’ve lost all three times in this series despite Curry having drastically different levels of success, which means he may not be the key.
Klay Thompson shot nearly 53 percent and averaged 23.7 points in the wins, shooting better than 50 percent all three times. Draymond Green shot just 33 percent, a number weighed down by an 0-for-8 effort at OKC, but he made all the winning plays he’s become known for, helping anchor the defense while averaging 12.3 boards and nine assists. Although he’s been dealing with ankle issues, he’ll be ready to work.
The Warriors aren’t as certain about Andrew Bogut in Game 1, listing him as questionable with hip trouble, but should have their starting center available for duty. Shaun Livingston and Harrison Barnes are always x-factors, typically making Golden State unbeatable when they’re excellent. Those guys can sway the series, but deciding it?
How about Durant? Can he turn it up a few notches? Considering Elias Sports Bureau notes that he joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Wilt Chamberlain as the only players ever to average at least 36 points, 12 rebounds and six assists against an opponent they faced at least three times in a season, there’s not much improvement to be had there. He shot 53 percent despite often facing two of the top defenders in the game, Green and Andre Iguodala. Durant scored 37 points and grabbed five rebounds in the Game 6 clincher against San Antonio and had a 41-point game in the Game 4 where everything changed.
He’ll look to reverse a trend that saw him shoot just 1-for-7 in the last 3:00 and OT against the Warriors this season, but he’s still who you want with the ball in his hands down the stretch if you’re Thunder head coach Billy Donovan.
Which brings us to Westbrook, always divisive since his antics have cost the Thunder games in the past. He’s probably the NBA’s best athlete, unquestionably a superstar, but a look at his numbers in the regular-season contests tells you this series swings on his improvement. It rides on his decision-making.
Westbrook had his best game against the Warriors in that first outing, a visit to Oakland where he shot 8-for-22 but dished out 12 assists and committed just three turnovers, playing within himself despite the huge stage, one night before the Super Bowl also being played in the Bay Area, which made the Saturday evening basketball game an appetizer attended by a who’s who of celebrities.
His other performances simply weren’t as sound. In the game Curry thrived in, Westbrook was sliced up defensively, turned it over seven times, shot 10-for-29 and was an ice-cold 0-for-6 from beyond the arc. In the most recent March meeting, he was 8-for-24 from the field, including 1-for-8 from 3-point range. The Warriors provide him with multiple looks to limit his aggressiveness and try to bait him into settling for jumpers. Thus far, it’s worked.
Westbrook’s rock bottom in this postseason has been a 10-for-31 shooting performance in the last loss suffered against the Spurs, a nightmare of a Game 3 that looked like the beginning of the end for OKC. While Westbrook didn’t shoot the ball well in Game 4, he dished out 15 assists, turned it over just three times and was able to make sure everyone else got off, a chore he struggles with in balancing his ridiculous talent with the job description of a point guard. Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 this postseason when Westbrook dishes out double-digit assists. They’re 2-3 when he doesn’t.
Nobody should expect him to deviate too far from the attacking, Tazmanian devil-style that has made him great, but reining himself in enough to ensure the ball moves and everyone remains engaged against Golden State is a must if you’re going to beat a team this efficient.
Thunder big men Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Serge Ibaka must still help control the paint like they did against San Antonio, but the Warriors offer up a far different challenge than the Spurs did. They’ll have to stay focused on defense, but the Warriors are going to isolate them on occasion and make them look bad. Donovan will have to push the right buttons against reigning NBA Coach of the Year Steve Kerr, but he’ll need Westbrook responsibly at the controls to have a chance at pulling the upset to beat the champs four times. No one is doubting OKC has the talent to win a game or two, but getting out of the series will require Westbrook putting it all together. VI’s Rogers believes we’re in for a great series since Oklahoma City is playing its best basketball when it matters most.
“Currently, the Thunder are playing better than the Warriors. Golden State needed to rally from 16+ point deficits in two victories against Portland, while needing to outlast the Blazers in the series clincher of the second round,” Rogers said. “After the Thunder were blown out by the Spurs in the series opener, Oklahoma City won four of the final five games, including a pair of victories at the AT&T Center where the Spurs lost only one regular-season game.”
The Warriors went 39-2 at Oracle Arena during the regular season and are a perfect 6-0 there during these playoffs, winning by an average margin of 14.9 points per game. Golden State has a 5-1 mark ATS in Oakland, only failing to cover the series clincher against the Blazers. The Thunder were just 23-18 on the road during the season and but are 5-1 this postseason straight up and against the number. The ‘over’ has prevailed in the last three GSW games and two of the last three OKC games. The total for this Western Conference finals opener is nearly 10 points lower than two of their last three regular-season meetings closed at.
Monday's NBA Conference Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-7.5, 223.5)
The defending champion and top-seeded Golden State Warriors are one series away from another appearance in the NBA Finals but are staring at an opponent that seems to get stronger by the game. The Oklahoma City Thunder will try to steal Game 1 on the road when they visit the Warriors for the series opener on Monday.
The Thunder have won four of their five road games in the postseason and took a pair in the semifinals at San Antonio, which dropped only one home game during the regular season. "The one thing that's happened for our team, which has been good, is Dallas and San Antonio," Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. "These games helped us get better. We have improved and gotten better. I think there's an opportunity to continue to grow for our team.” The Warriors spent most of the first two rounds without two-time MVP Stephen Curry, but the star point guard returned in the final two games of the semifinals against Portland and averaged 34.5 points, 9.5 assists and seven rebounds while providing the dagger 3-pointers that clinched both wins. Golden State got four full days off between series to help heal Curry’s knee injury and buy some time for center Andrew Bogut (adductor), who left Game 5 against the Trail Blazers and sat out practices on Friday and Saturday.
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened at 7.5-point favorites an, as of Sunday evening, the line hasn't budged since its release. The total opened at 223 and came up by a half point to 223.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (63-30, 44-48-1 ATS, 45-48 O/U): Oklahoma City lost Game 1 against the Spurs by 32 points but rebounded to win the series behind stars Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Westbrook, who drew some criticism and heaped more on himself after needing 31 shots to get 31 points in a Game 3 loss, was arguably the best player on the floor in the final three games of the series, dictating the pace and relentlessly attacking the basket. “I’m excited for all of our players,” Donovan told reporters. “Those guys have done a tremendous job and have worked really hard getting prepared to play each game. I’m just happy that we get a chance to advance and continue to play.”
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (81-11, 52-38-2 ATS, 50-41-1 O/U): Golden State will start Festus Ezeli at center if Bogut is unable to go in Game 1, and the team is confident a reserve frontcourt that includes Anderson Varejao and Marreese Speights can pick up the slack. “We’ve got a lot of options, a lot of depth,” Kerr said. “The good thing is, we’ve had to play without a lot of people this year, and we’ve had to adapt to that. We’ll figure it out.” All-Star forward Draymond Green rolled his ankle in the finale against Portland but has been practicing over the weekend and is more worried about getting baited into technical fouls (he’s already been whistled for four during the postseason) than he is about the ankle.
TRENDS:
* Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 Conference Finals games.
* Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Home team is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
CONSENSUS: Somewhat surprising early Consensus data with the Thunder picking up 51 percent of the wagers as of Sunday evening. The Over is the fun play with these two offensive-minded teams, so not a huge surprise that 70 percent of Covers users are picking the Over.
Monday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (63-30) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (81-11)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -7.5, Total: 223.5
The Warriors will be looking to take a 1-0 series lead when they host the Thunder in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday.
The Thunder surprised a lot of people by defeating the Spurs last round. Oklahoma City won 113-99 as a one-point home favorite in Game 6 and that was the victory that eliminated San Antonio.
The Thunder now come into this series after having won-and-covered in four of their past five games and they have a lot going right for them.
Oklahoma City outrebounded the Spurs in the final three games of its series and also held San Antonio to less than 45% shooting from the floor in four of the six games the teams played.
The Thunder will be hoping to keep it up against the Warriors beginning Monday. Golden State has, however, won every game in which PG Steph Curry (24.8 PPG, 6.5 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) has been able to play this postseason.
The Warriors were 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS versus the Thunder this season. Oklahoma City has also lost five straight games at Oracle Arena, as the team’s last victory in the building came in 2013.
The Warriors also happen to be 11-1 ATS after two straight games where they were called for 25 or more fouls over the past three seasons.
C Andrew Bogut (Hip) is the only player listed on the injury report for either team, as he was injured last series and is questionable for this game.
The Thunder are playing their best basketball of the year at the moment and they’ll now look to knock off a Warriors team that set all kinds of records during the regular season.
The guy that has really stepped up his game for Oklahoma City has been PG Russell Westbrook (25.5 PPG, 10.8 APG, 6.8 RPG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs). In the final two games of the series against San Antonio, Westbrook averaged 31.5 PPG, 10.5 APG, 7.0 RPG and 2.0 SPG.
He has balanced his scoring and passing extremely well throughout the postseason and must continue to do so moving forward. His matchup with Steph Curry will come a long way in determining the outcome of this series and he must find a way to get it done on both ends of the floor.
SF Kevin Durant (27.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.6 APG in playoffs) has also been excellent for the Thunder. He had 37 points in Game 6 against the Spurs and will need to continue to get buckets against Golden State.
He should have no problem doing that, as he averaged 36.3 PPG on 52.9% shooting in three meetings with the Warriors this season.
Two other guys that will really need to play well for the Thunder are Cs Enes Kanter (11.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG in playoffs) and Steven Adams (10.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG).
Both guys have played very well for Oklahoma City in the postseason, as Kanter has been outstanding offensively and Adams has been getting it done on both ends of the floor.
If they can do their jobs this series then the Warriors may be forced to ditch their small-ball lineups.
The Warriors have not lost a game when playing with Steph Curry in these playoffs and they should have him at 100% heading into Game 1 of this series.
Curry was excellent in Games 4 and 5 last round, averaging 34.5 PPG and 9.5 APG on 50% shooting from the field. He was, however, just 10-for-27 from the outside and definitely is capable of shooting better this series.
Curry was unstoppable against Oklahoma City in the regular season, averaging 35.0 PPG and 6.7 APG in three meetings with the team. He has no trouble getting by Westbrook, but he must play well on him defensively on Monday and in the remainder of the series.
PF Draymond Green (17.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 7.0 APG, 2.3 BPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) just might be the most important player for the Warriors in this series, though.
Green is a triple-double threat every time he steps on the floor, but he will need to hold his own on the glass and on the defensive end when guarding the Thunder’s big men in this series.
Golden State wins games by playing small-ball and if Green can’t do those things then the Warriors will be in trouble in this series.
SG Klay Thompson (27.2 PPG, 1.2 SPG in playoffs) is one guy that the Warriors shouldn’t have to worry about.
The Thunder are very weak at the shooting guard position, so Thompson should be able to have his way on both ends of the floor in this series.