NBA Knowledge
Toronto-Cleveland
Cavaliers won six of last nine games with Toronto; over is 5-3-1 in last nine series games. Raptors kept series alive by winning Game 3 99-84; Lowry/Derozan combined for 52 points, Biyombo had 26 rebounds and was as dominant as a guy can be while scoring 7 points- Raptors are 7-2 at home in playoffs. Cavs are 10-1 SU in playoffs, 7-4 vs spread (over 5-5-1); how will they react after their first loss? . Toronto won five of last six home games; three of last five went over.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 3-3, over: 2-3-1
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Cleveland at Toronto
Toronto led by DeMar DeRozan (32 pts), Kyle Lowry (20.0 pts) along with a monster night in the paint by Biyombo grabbing a franchise playoff record 26 rebounds the Raptors proved they aren't dead yet, beating the Cavaliers 99-84 as 6 point home underdogs. At the other end, LeBron James scored 24 points for the Cavaliers, J.R. Smith added 22 points, Kyrie Irving had 13 and Kevin Love managed just 3 in the losing effort.
Toronto is a tough sell, but leaving +6.0 points on the table could be costly. Home-court is something Raptors can tap into. On the season Raptors are 39-11 in front of the home audience with a 27-23 record against the betting line including a solid 6-1 ATS in an underdog roll. Additionally, Raptors hit the hardwood with confidence knowing Cavaliers havent' won on this floor this year (0-3 SU/ATS).
Monday's NBA Conference Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+6, 197)
Everybody was writing off the Toronto Raptors after they lost the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals by an average of 25 points. Toronto countered with a superb Game 3 performance and aims to tie the series at 2-2 when it host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday.
The Raptors posted a 99-84 home victory over the Cavaliers on Saturday when they limited Cleveland to 35.4 percent shooting from the field while center Bismack Biyombo was busy setting a franchise playoff record with 26 rebounds. "It's a long series," Raptors coach Dwane Casey told reporters afterward. "It's not over with yet, but everybody thought we were going to get swept. I think that fuels us and if that's what it takes, so be it." The Cavaliers won their first 10 games of the postseason before Saturday's mediocre showing and forward LeBron James attributed the result to a combination of Toronto's stellar play and his own club's shortcomings. "We didn't play our game, and they made us pay for it," James said at his postgame press conference. "It is a little adversity. Why not? It's the postseason, and you lose a game. This is our first loss of the postseason. I would count it as a little adversity."
LINE HISTORY: The Rapors hit the board for this pivotal Game 4 as 6-point home dogs and, at the time of publication of this preview, the line hasn't moved off that number. The total opened at 197 and has also yet to move. Check out the up-to-date and complete line history here.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (67-26, 44-46-3 ATS, 46-47 O/U): James scored 24 points in Game 3 but point guard Kyrie Irving (13 points on 3-of-19 shooting) and power forward Kevin Love (three points, 1-of-9) both had awful shooting nights. Love, who didn't play in the fourth quarter, is averaging just 12 points and 4.3 rebounds in the series and said the following to reporters: "I felt like I was a little passive. From a mentality standpoint, it's an easy fix." Irving averaged 26.5 points in the first two games before a woeful performance that included a 1-of-7 showing from 3-point range.
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (65-34, 51-48 ATS, 48-50-1 O/U): Biyombo has an increased role with starting center Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) sidelined and he averaged just 4.5 rebounds over the first two games before going on a board rage - including eight offensive - in Game 3. Biyombo set the tone by collecting 10 rebounds in the first quarter and had 16 at halftime as Toronto finished with a 54-40 rebounding edge. "I'm playing for my teammates, honestly, and for us it's just that we're going to play hard no matter what, and we're going to play our game," Biyombo told reporters after Game 3. "I've been saying that since we started the series, and our game is to protect the paint. And my job is to make sure that I protect the paint no matter what."
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
* Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 games following a ATS win.
* Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
* Under is 22-5-1 in the last 28 meetings in Toronto.
CONSENSUS: Early Consensus data is showing a massive shift in public opinion. For Saturday's game it seemed like the entire world was picking the Cavaliers to win and cover the spread but the current numbers are drastically different with only 54 percent thinking that the Cavs can cover the six points on the road. Total wagering is, pretty much, where it's been all series with 63 percent of Covers users picking the Over.
Game 4 - Cavaliers at Raptors
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Cleveland’s undefeated run in the playoffs came to an end in Saturday’s Game 3 loss at Toronto as the Cavaliers are guaranteed another home game in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, the Raptors are going to take advantage of their home court and look to even up this series at 2-2 with a victory at the Air Canada Center on Monday.
Toronto was wiped out in the first two contests of this series as double-digit underdogs, but rebounded with a wire-to-wire 99-84 triumph as six-point underdogs in Game 3. The Cavaliers put together their worst shooting performance of the postseason by hitting 35% of their shots from the field, as Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love combined to make 4-of-28 attempts, including a 3-of-19 performance from Irving for 13 points. Cleveland hoisted 41 attempts from three-point range, converting 14 treys, including six from J.R. Smith. The Cavs were paced by LeBron James’ 24 points, but Cleveland suffered its fourth ATS loss in the playoffs in 11 tries.
The Raptors received a huge boost from the struggling Kyle Lowry, who shot 1-of-15 from three-point range in the first two losses. The Toronto point guard knocked down 4-of-8 from downtown in Game 3, while putting up 20 points after scoring a total of 18 points in the first two games. DeMar DeRozan continued to play well for Toronto in this series by posting his best game against Cleveland by scoring 32 points on 12-of-24 shooting. Cory Joseph and Patrick Patterson combined for 24 points off the bench, while Bismack Biyombo pulled down 26 rebounds as Toronto out-boarded Cleveland, 54-40.
Game 3 was on a good pace to finish ‘over’ the total of 199½, but the two teams combined for 33 points in the final quarter to cash the second straight ‘under.’ Three of five road playoff games for Tyronn Lue’s club have stayed ‘under’ the total, while Cleveland scored fewer than 100 points for the first time in this postseason. The Raptors are now 5-4 to the ‘over’ in nine home playoff games, while scoring 99 points or less in seven of those contests.
Dwane Casey’s team hasn’t responded well off a victory in the playoffs by owning a 2-6 SU/ATS record off a win, while not winning consecutive games at Air Canada Center in the postseason. Toronto hasn’t covered back-to-back home games in the playoffs since the opening round of the 2002 postseason against Detroit. The Raptors owned a dreadful 1-10-1 ATS record at home in the playoffs from 2014 through Game 2 of the conference semifinals against Miami, but Toronto is riding a 3-0 ATS mark the last three home playoff contests.
Cleveland opened as a six-point road favorite for Game 4 and Chris David of VegasInsider.com believes that bettors shouldn’t be afraid to lay the wood if you’re leaning to the Cavaliers.
He explained, “It was nice to see Toronto show a good effort at home on Saturday and I’m not sure if we’ll see a repeat effort from the team in Game 4. The Raptors are front-runners and they’re very tough to beat when they’re ahead but when they’re down, it’s been lights out. They’ve dropped eight games in this year’s playoffs by an average of 15 points with the closest margins being six and seven points. If you do believe Toronto can win the game, you’re better option is to take the Raptors on the money-line (+225) since the point-spread hasn’t mattered in the playoffs when it’s been listed as an underdog. Just pick the winner!”
Toronto is now 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS as a home underdog this season following Saturday’s victory. The Raptors have beaten the Cavaliers three times at home, all in the ‘dog role, while limiting Cleveland to less than 100 points in all three victories. The Cavaliers never lost consecutive road games during its run to the NBA Finals last season, winning by two points over Chicago in the second round (86-84) and edging Golden State by two points in overtime in Game 2 of the NBA Finals (95-93).
David feels that the oddsmakers have done a great job with the totals in this series and another sweatshop should be expected Monday. “Depending when you bet and where you shop, you could’ve cashed the ‘under’ in the first three games of this series. These outcomes have been tight and although Game 3 was the lowest-scoring matchup thus far, you could argue that the ‘over’ was the right side. You had a great first-half (107 points) but the final 24 minutes only saw a combined 76 points and that kind of production usually leans to ‘under’ tickets.”
Despite the poor offensive effort from Cleveland, David is expecting the offense to rebound in Game 4. He said, “Since Lue took over as head coach of the Cavaliers, the offense has only scored in the eighties three times and that includes a 96-83 loss to Chicago in his head coaching debut. In the three following games, Cleveland has posted 114, 114 and 99 points. Along with a poor shooting night from 3-point land on Saturday, the Cavs only got to the free throw line 16 times. Toronto has allowed 100-plus points in seven of its eight playoff losses and I believe Cleveland’s team total of 101½ for Game 4 is the right lean.”
From the days of the week department, Cleveland has gone 11-4 on Mondays this season, which includes a 1-0 record in the playoffs and 3-1 overall mark on the road. Toronto has struggled to a 5-7 ledger on Mondays this season, including a 1-1 record in the playoffs.
Raptors look to even series
By Sportsbook.ag
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (67-26) at TORONTO RAPTORS (65-34)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -6.0, Total: 197.0
The Raptors will be looking to even up the series when they host the Cavaliers in Game 4 on Monday.
The Cavaliers thought they were going to breeze through the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Raptors have other ideas. Toronto came out in Game 3 and dominated Cleveland, winning 99-84 as a 5.5-point home favorite. The Raptors played a flawless game on both ends of the floor, shooting 45.8% from the floor and holding the Cavaliers to just 35.4% shooting. They’ll need to bring another solid two-way effort on Monday night or they’ll be facing an insurmountable 3-1 deficit.
One thing that bodes well for Cleveland is the fact that the team is 8-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss versus an opponent as a road favorite on the season. Toronto does, however, get to face a Cavaliers team that is just 1-8 ATS in road games after four straight contests forcing its opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers on the year.
C Jonas Valanciunas (Ankle) is likely to miss this game for the Raptors, but he is the only player that is expected to be out for either team in this one.
The Cavaliers are going to need to play with some passion on Monday night, as this series is now competitive once again. If Cleveland is going to win Game 4 and take a 3-1 lead then the team is going to need PG Kyrie Irving (23.7 PPG, 4.8 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) and PF Kevin Love (17.0 PPG, 10.3 RPG in playoffs) to play a lot better. The two of them were absolutely dreadful on Saturday, combining to shoot 4-for-28 from the floor and 2-for-11 from the outside. These are two guys that are considered superstars around the league and they will need to play like it on Monday.
SF LeBron James (23.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 7.1 APG, 2.4 SPG in playoffs) will also need to be more aggressive for Cleveland on Monday. James was just 1-for-5 from three in Game 3 and he should probably not be taking that many outside shots moving forward. He is at his best when attacking the rim and will need to start doing that early and often in Game 4. If he does then the Cavaliers should be able to keep this game close.
The Raptors showed a ton of heart in Game 3 and now have a chance to tie the series up in Game 4 on Monday. One guy who really came up big on Saturday was C Bismack Biyombo (6.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 1.3 BPG in playoffs). The big man scored just seven points in the game, but he did grab an absurd 26 rebounds and also blocked four shots for Toronto. He’ll need to continue to do the little things for the Raptors moving forward.
Another guy that really played well for the Raptors in Game 3 was PG Kyle Lowry (17.6 PPG, 6.2 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs). Lowry finished the game with 20 points, six boards and three assists in 33 minutes of action in that one. He was 7-for-13 from the floor and 4-for-8 from the outside, but he also shut down Kyrie Irving on the defensive end. If he can continue to outplay the Cavaliers’ point guard then the Raptors could tie this series up.
SG DeMar DeRozan (20.7 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) was also incredible in Game 3, scoring 32 points on 12-for-24 shooting from the floor. If he can continue to find a way to score efficiently then it’d be huge for the Raptors moving forward.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Cavaliers (-6.5, 197) at Raptors
The situation favors the Cavaliers as this should be a focused bounce-back spot after losing by 15 points (99-84) in Game 3 on Saturday night. In four of the five meetings in which Cleveland was at full strength this season, the Cavaliers have held 22-2, 14-3, 35-7, and 22-2 largest lead advantages in each game. Toronto held an 18-1 largest lead edge in Game 3 on Saturday, but that was a fantastic situational spot for the Raptors, and a flat spot for the Cavaliers. Cleveland is certainly the much better team, but unfortunately this line remains way too inflated. Using all games this season would make a fair line Pick'em.
Games 1 & 2 had misleading Unders as limited scoring in the final minutes barely kept both games Under the total. My mathematical re-scoring model had those two games finishing with 202.5 points each. Game 3 was legitimately lower scoring with 183 total points scored with my math model re-scoring at 184.5. Overall, in the six head-to-head meetings this season, the average total score has been 199.8 points per game with median scores of 197/199. My re-scores have averaged just 193.4 ppg with median re-scores of 190/194.5.