NBA Knowledge
Oklahoma City-Golden State
Thunder led this series 3-1, now need road win to advance; they won/covered once in last five visits to Oakland. Warriors scored 108+ pts (115.3 ppg) in its three wins. 105 or less (100.3 ppg) in its three series losses. Four of six games in series stayed under total. Warriors are 11-5 in playoffs after going 73-9 during year. Oklahoma City had 8-point lead in 4th quarter in Game 6, couldn't close out the defending champs. Westbrook/Durant were combined 20-58 (1-13 on arc) last game, who steps up if they are struggling?
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 6-6, over: 5-6-1
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NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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Oklahoma City at Golden State
Golden State Warriors behind Klay Thompson's playoff record 11 three-pointers scoring 41 points with Stephen Curry chipping in 29 points forced a seventh game in the Western Conference Final with 108-101 victory in Oklahoma City Saturday night.
Home-court is certainly something the defending Champions can tap into. Warriors were 39-2 (22-19 ATS) at home in regular season netting 116.3 points/game and enter this decisive game-seven 8-1 (7-2 ATS) on home court in second season dropping 114.0 per/contest.
Warriors thriving at the betting window during these playoffs as 7 to 9.5 point home chalk posting a profitable 6-1 record, 6-1 ATS last seven running the hardwood with Thunder in Oakland have opened -7 point favorites at Sports Interaction with the total set at 218.0.
Game 7 - Thunder at Warriors
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The NBA was granted one of its wishes with LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers making the Finals for a second straight season. The second wish came true when the Warriors extended the Western Conference Finals to a pivotal Game 7 against the Thunder, setting up for an epic finale of this series at Oracle Arena.
Oklahoma City seemed in control of the conference finals less than a week ago when Billy Donovan’s squad held a 3-1 advantage over the defending champions. The Warriors pulled away from the Thunder in Game 5 at Oracle Arena, 120-111 to cash as seven-point favorites and improve to 13-1 off a loss this season. Golden State rallied past Oklahoma City in Game 6 at Chesapeake Energy Arena to even up the Western Conference Finals at 3-3 as the Warriors turned to the “Splash Brothers” to save their season.
The Warriors erased a 13-point deficit in Saturday’s 108-101 triumph as three-point road underdogs thanks to outscoring the Thunder, 33-18 in the fourth quarter. Klay Thompson drilled a playoff-record 11 treys and scored 41 points as Golden State extended its streak to 10 consecutive postseason series with at least one road victory. Stephen Curry heated up in the second half to contribute 31 points as the Warriors’ dynamic duo combined to hit 17-of-32 shots from downtown. Golden State connected on 21-of-45 attempts from three-point range, even though only three Warriors scored in double-figures (Draymond Green scored 12 points).
Obviously Oklahoma City has to feel like this series has slipped through its fingers following the Game 6 meltdown, as the Thunder managed to hit on only 3-of-23 shots from long distance. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to go 1-of-13 from three-point range, but the two Thunder stars put up 57 of Oklahoma City’s 101 points. Durant missed 21 shots from the floor following his 40-point effort in Game 5, while attempting 31 shots in each of the last two games (22-of-62). The Thunder didn’t get much help from its bench in Game 6, receiving 11 points as the only player to log more than 10 minutes was Dion Waiters, who scored just three points in 36 minutes.
Nine teams in NBA postseason history have erased a 3-1 series deficit to capture a series victory with the Rockets being the last to do so in the 2015 conference semifinals against the Clippers. The last time a team squandered a 3-1 series advantage but ended up winning Game 7 was the Bulls over the Nets in the 2013 opening round, as Chicago won outright as 7½-point road underdogs, 99-93.
Home clubs have fared well in the history of Game 7, owning a 100-24 record (80%) since 1948. In the past four postseasons, home teams have compiled an 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS mark in Game 7’s, including a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS mark in the 2016 playoffs. Steve Kerr hasn’t coached in a Game 7 of the playoffs in his short career as head coach of the Warriors, as the last Game 7 that Golden State played in came in the 2014 opening round. The Warriors fell to the Clippers, 126-121, but covered as seven-point underdogs.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David provides his thoughts for Monday’s decisive contest, “If you’re handicapping this matchup based on Game 7 history and seasonal trends, it’s hard to go against Golden State. Including the playoffs, Oklahoma City has been a road underdog 16 times this season and it’s gone 4-12 in those games. They did manage to play competitive in three of the losses, which helped them go 7-9 against the spread. Golden State rarely lays less than a touchdown (-7) at home and when it does, it wins. The Warriors have gone 8-1 (89%) in these spots with the lone loss coming to the Thunder in Game 1 of this series. Golden State has covered five of those victories, three coming by double digits.”
Will the public jump off the OKC bandwagon following Saturday’s meltdown? “Those angles could easily have you leaning to the Warriors but if you bet on a regular basis, it’s never that easy and we saw what happened on Saturday with many so-called pundits penciling the Thunder into the NBA Finals already. While I don’t like to back teams off bad losses and it was ugly, I believe the value is with Oklahoma City in this spot and the line is inflated by a couple points. The Thunder have gone 5-3 on the road in the playoffs and Billy Donovan’s team has played well when facing adversity. During the regular season, the team went 7-1 off back-to-back losses and the lone three-game losing streak occurred back in early November,” David says.
After seeing totals range between 219½ and 225 in the first six games of this series, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 219 for Game 7 and some savvy bettors knocked it down to 218. “I agree with the early move and history tells us that it’s rare to see both teams eclipse 100-plus points in decisive matchups. While both clubs certainly have the ability to light up the scoreboard, I don’t see the pace being fast and expect possessions to be played at a premium. In Oklahoma City’s four wins as road underdogs this season, it allowed 102, 91, 97 and 89 points. The ‘under’ cashed easily in all four of those wins and went 11-5 overall when the Thunder were catching points on the road. Since I’m buying Oklahoma City with the points, I’ll also lean to the team total ‘under’ for Golden State (112½) and buy the game ‘under’ (218) as well,” David notes.
For the first time in the conference finals, we’ve seen home teams lose consecutive games following a 9-1 start by the four squads that played in this round. Cleveland knocked out Toronto in Game 6 on Friday night at Air Canada Center, followed by Golden State’s comeback victory over Oklahoma City on Saturday. Five of the last six close-out wins for the Warriors in the playoffs have come by nine points or more with the lowest margin of victory being four points in the second round against Portland.
In Saturday’s Game 6 preview written by David, he noted how impressive the home team has been in this series in the first quarter and first half. Those angles continued on Saturday as Oklahoma City led after the first 12 and 24 minutes.
Game 1 - 58-50 (27-21)
Game 2 - 72-53 (27-20)
Game 3 - 72-47 (34-28)
Game 4 - 57-49 (30-26)
Game 5 - 60-47 (25-21)
Game 6 – 53-48 (23-20)
Golden State is favored by 2½ points in the first quarter at Sportsbook.ag, while the Warriors are laying 4½ points in the first half. For the game, the Warriors are seven-point ‘chalk,’ as the total is sitting at 218. The contest tips off at 9:00 p.m. EST from Oracle Arena and can be seen on TNT.
NBA Conference Finals Game 7 Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-7, 218)
The Golden State Warriors turned to their stars down the stretch in Game 6, and Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry delivered a Game 7. The Warriors will have the chance to close out the Western Conference finals and advance to the NBA Finals for the second straight year when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 on Monday.
Golden State looked beaten and broken after getting crushed in Games 3 and 4 to fall into a 3-1 hole in the series, but a tough win at home in Game 5 coupled with a transcendent performance from Thompson in Game 6 knotted it back at three wins apiece. “We played for each other,” Thompson told reporters after burying an NBA playoff-record 11 3-pointers in the 108-101 win. “… It was just so much fun to play with the fire and emotion we did for the whole 48 minutes.” The Thunder held a seven-point lead with five minutes left on Sunday but were outscored 19-5 the rest of the way and committed six turnovers in that span. “I felt like we didn’t do a great job coming down the stretch,” Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. “We got a little stagnant coming down the stretch. Defensively, we were a little bit late, but they made some tough shots and made some plays.”
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 7.5-point favorites at most shops immediately following Game 6 on Saturday night, however, after only a couple of hours at that number the line was moved back to -7. The total opened at 219 but the public bet the Under and forced the books to lower the number by by a full point down to 218. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (66-33, 47-51-1 ATS, 47-52 O/U): Oklahoma City already has one win at Golden State under its belt in the series and believes it can overcome the devastation of dropping Game 6 at home. “We know exactly what they do, they know exactly what we do,” Kevin Durant told. “It’s just a matter of who wants it more. Both teams went out there and played extremely hard (in Game 6). They made more shots than we did, especially from the three. That’s the name of the game.” Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 57 points but went 1-of-13 from 3-point range in the loss and 3-of-14 from the field in the fourth quarter.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (84-14, 55-41-2 ATS, 52-45-1 O/U): Golden State outscored the Thunder 63-9 from 3-point range led by Thompson, who buried a flat-footed 3-pointer from over 28 feet away at the top of the key and nailed another in transition to provide the go-ahead bucket in the late-game surge. "Obviously, Klay Thompson was ridiculous," Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "The shooting was some of the most incredible shooting you'll ever see." Curry added 29 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists and found his shot late with a pair of 3-pointers and a runner on the right side of the lane that sealed it in the final seconds.
TRENDS:
* Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.
* Thunder are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
CONSENSUS: The early returns for the consensus bets are showing a 50/50 split on the point spread and 65 percent of wagers on the Over.
Warriors look to close out OKC
By Sportsbook.ag
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (66-33) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (84-14)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -7.0, Total: 218.0
Both the Thunder and the Warriors will be looking to claim a spot in the NBA Finals with a victory in Game 7 on Monday.
The Warriors once trailed 3-1 in this series, but they earned a gutsy 108-101 victory as three-point road underdogs in Game 6 on Saturday.
This series is now all tied up and both teams have won-and-covered in three contests. The big difference for the Warriors has been their ability to do a bit better on the glass in this series. They were outrebounded by 33 in Games 3 and 4 of this series, but have only been outrebounded by two in the past two games.
Golden State will need to continue to fight on the boards or the team could easily find a way to lose this Game 7 on Monday.
The Warriors are, however, 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS when hosting the Thunder over the past three seasons.
One trend that sticks out and favors the Thunder is that Oklahoma City is 16-7 ATS revenging a same season loss versus an opponent this season.
The Warriors, meanwhile, are 22-8 ATS after two straight games where they had 10 or more steals over the past two seasons.
Both teams will be at full strength coming into this one, so injuries should not play a major factor in this exciting Game 7 matchup.
The Thunder had a chance to win this series on their home floor, but they collapsed late in the game and ended up allowing the Warriors to push this series to Game 7.
If Oklahoma City is going to win this game on Monday then PG Russell Westbrook (26.4 PPG, 10.9 APG, 6.9 RPG, 2.6 SPG in playoffs) will need to be a lot better than he was in Game 6.
He had 28 points, 11 assists and nine boards in that game, but he was also a miserable 10-for-27 from the floor and 0-for-5 from three.
Westbrook was not shooting the ball well and needs to be a lot better on Monday.
He also needs to cut down on his turnovers, as five is too many to win against a team like Golden State.
SF Kevin Durant (28.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs) must also play at a much higher level on Monday.
He was just 10-for-31 from the field and 1-for-8 from three in Game 6 and that is just not going to cut it in this one.
The Thunder need Durant to make some shots or this series is going to go down as one of the biggest missed opportunities of his career.
The Warriors have shocked a lot of people by battling back from a 3-1 deficit in this series and the reason they were able to win Game 6 was because SG Klay Thompson (26.5 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) was as hot as could be.
Thompson scored 41 points in that game and was an absurd 11-for-18 from three. He hit some ridiculously deep shots and did not have much room to get them off either. He’ll be hoping to carry that momentum into Game 7 on Monday.
PG Stephen Curry (25.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 5.9 APG, 2.0 SPG in playoffs) also played very well in Game 6, finishing the contest with 31 points, 10 boards and nine assists.
Curry, like Thompson, hit some huge shots late and is now averaging 31.0 PPG over the past two contests. If he can stay hot then the Warriors should be able to win this game and advance to the Finals.
It’s just a matter of whether or not Curry’s knee is feeling good when the ball tips on Monday.