NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, May 8th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Warriors were only up a hoop after three quarters, but won Game 3 102-91 to go up 3-0 in series (3-0 ATS); they can mercifully end this series here. Klay Thompson was 1-9 from floor, had 6 points, but Golden State has lot more answers than Utah has questions. Jazz bench was 4-22 from floor in Game 3. Warriors won last four games in Utah, by 3-7-7-11 points (2-2 vs spread). Under is 6-1 in last seven series games. Utah lost three of its last four home games. Cavaliers are 8-0 in playoffs; you know Warriors want to match that here. Road team is 4-3 in last seven series games.
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz
Warriors are undoubtedly the better team in this matchup but Jazz are hanging tough cashing two of three tickets in the semifinals. For Monday night's clash Bodog.eu currently has Warriors -8.0 point road favorites.
A little generous ??. Warriors are just 2-4 ATS in their last six Conference Semifinals games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. On the other side, Jazz 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an SU loss, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against Western Conference opponents.
Monday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Golden State at Utah
Even though they've been playing games on opposite sides of the country, the Warriors are well aware of what the Cavs have been doing. Heck, they've actually played games in different countries over the weekend, but that doesn't change the fact that Cleveland is currently where Golden State wants to be, back home relaxing, waiting on a series that is currently tied to play out and produce a conference finals opponent.
Although there were some struggles in play, LeBron James' Cavs utilized big fourth quarters to overcome the Kyle Lowry-less Raptors. Similarly, Golden State found themselves down 75-74 with the finish line within sight and compleltely turned things around, utilizing a 10-4 run to pull away. As if to flex muscles no other team has, former MVPs Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant put the game out of reach with back-to-back 3-pointers.
Durant wound up with 38 points and 13 rebounds to make up for a terrible shooting day from the Splash Brothers, who finished 7-for-29 and shot 3-for-15 from 3-point range. If the Jazz didn't take advantage of that, they're probably heading for a sweep. Utah led by as many as nine points in the second half, overcoming the absence of starting point guard George Hill, who missed his second straight game with a a big toe issue. He's listed as questionable to participate on Monday night and would again be replaced by Shelvin Mack if he can't go. Young backups Raul Neto and Dante Exum have also gotten minutes, which bodes well for their future if nothing else. Still, having Hill, one of the league's top defensive point guards, available, would make a major difference.
"It is really just a question of his effectiveness," head coach Quin Snyder said. "There are situations in the game where he lands on it and pushes off and just aggravates it. It aggravates it to a point where he's just not able to be effective."
Hill and Derrick Favors are free agents, so this could be Utah's final game with its current core as constituted. The team chose not to practice on Sunday and would welcome Hill back if he's ready to go. Mack was a plus-6 in his time on the floor, so Snyder has stated he's comfortable whether he gets his starter back or not.
Golden State would probably be worse off if Hill plays since it would offer a different look from the one it was forced to adjust to on Saturday night. Utah shot just 28 percent in the first quarter and has started off extremely slowly without Hill, who doesn't get enough credit for getting teammates going.
Despite those struggles and the fact they didn't take a lead in the series until Game 3, the Jazz did cover both games in Oakland and were in position to do so again in Salt Lake City before Golden State's late run. If Rudy Gobert were a better free-throw shooter, there's a good chance Utah would've secured another backdoor cover in the final minute, which they accomplished in the first two games of the series. Gordon Hayward and Gobert combined for 50 points, so there are reasons to be optimistic if you're the Jazz.
Utah's bench has been a strength all season due to the team's depth, but reserves shot just 4-for-22 and scored only 10 points in contributing to the Game 3 loss. If they had been more efficient, the Warriors likely would've been unable to make their fourth-quarter run hold up as the difference.
"I think the problem we had was we stopped moving the ball," said Gobert, who drew the ire of Durant in the final minutes, drawing a flagrant foul and a technical from the Warriors' star, who didn't take kindly to excessively physical play and retaliated with an emphatic push in the middle of play with the outcome already decided. "We started having some tougher shots, and they got going in transition. Steph got going and KD got going. They're very tough to guard."
This season has seen the Warriors and Cavs on a collision course towards a third consecutive NBA Finals meeting ever since Durant agreed to leave Oklahoma City for Oakland last July 4, so there's no doubt the teams are aware of what the other is doing. Cleveland started 10-0 in the 2016 postseason and has won all eight games to date, while Golden State's 7-0 run through series with Portland and Utah has set a franchise playoff record.
The Warriors have remained dominant despite the absence of head coach Steve Kerr, who has missed most of the postseason due to complications from back surgery that have often rendered him to move or enter a bright room. He didn't make the trip to Salt Lake City and there's no timetable for his return, which means Mike Brown could be the acting head coach for the duration of the playoffs. It was therefore a positive sign that the team responded to their first bout with adversity on the road as emphatically as they did on Saturday night.
"Give our guys credit. They stayed poised," Brown said. "They could've caved at any time, especially in the third when Utah went on a run, but they stayed with it. There was no panic involved or anything like that, especially during timeouts in the huddle."
Oddsmakers have apparently seen enough of this series and determined that the Warriors should be 8.5-point favorites for this close-out game after laying 6.5-to-7 in Game 3. The Jazz have covered four of the last six meetings between the teams, so be aware of that. The total has been set at 206-206.5, which is right were it resided for the first two games of the series before climbing to 209 in Game 3. The 'under' has connected twice in the series and is 7-1-1 over the last nine meetings between these teams.
Monday’s NBA Playoffs Semifinals Betting Preview
Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz (+8, 206.5)
The Golden State Warriors are getting good news both on and off the court and can earn a four-game sweep of the Western Conference semifinals when they visit the Utah Jazz for Game 4 on Monday. Warriors coach Steve Kerr, who has been out since the first round while dealing with complications from back surgery, reportedly underwent a procedure to address a spinal cord leak and could resume his coaching career as early as later this postseason.
Kerr did not travel with the team to Utah and is not expected back soon, but owner Joe Lacob gave a radio interview over the weekend and suggested that he may be getting closer to rejoining a Golden State squad that is 7-0 in the playoffs and on the verge of a second consecutive sweep after coming alive in the fourth quarter of a 102-91 triumph in Saturday's Game 3. "Hopefully the leak was solved; he had another procedure. It's gone on for nearly two years. Very unusual, I believe," Lacob said to Bloomberg Radio. "We feel really bad for him, the players. Everybody understands it. We just have to be in his court here and support whatever it takes for him to get back, and I'm sure they will eventually solve it. Hopefully sooner rather than later, and hopefully we'll have him coaching on the court sooner rather than later." The Jazz led by as much as nine points in the third quarter on Saturday and held Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to a combined 7-of-29 from the floor but still lost. "We played like we're capable of playing for the first time in the series," Utah coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "But … that's why they are who they are."
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as eight-point road favorites as they attempt to finish off the Utah Jazz and that point spread has yet to move. The total hit the betting board at 206.5. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Warriors - SF K. Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).
Jazz - PG G. Hill (Questionable, toe), SG R. Hood (Questionable, undisclosed), SG A. Burks (Out Indefinitely, knee).
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (74-15 SU, 44-42-3 ATS, 36-53 O/U): With Curry and Thompson suffering through poor shooting nights in Game 3, Golden State let Kevin Durant take the lead and watched the former MVP collect 38 points on 15-of-26 shooting and 13 rebounds. "I want to try to say this as humbly as I can," Durant told reporters in the postgame press conference. "But I’ve been doing this for so long, and every time I roll out of the bed and we have a game that day, I feel like I can go out there and score." Forward Draymond Green heard loud boos from the crowd most of the game and had a little fun with the opposing fans early, holding up two fingers to represent the Warriors being up 2-0 in the series.
ABOUT THE JAZZ (55-37 SU, 43-45-4 ATS, 46-46 O/U): All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward had another strong game on Saturday with 29 points and six assists but Utah struggled to 39 percent shooting from the field. "I don't think we shot the ball as well as we wanted," Hayward told reporters. "There were times where we got some bad shots. I think that's going to happen because they're a good defensive team. But the ones we did get, that were open, it seemed like we didn't knock them down like we normally do." Utah has been without second-leading scorer George Hill (toe) the last two games and he remains questionable for Game 4.
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Jazz are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 20-5-1 in Warriors last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Warriors go for sweep over Jazz
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
Golden State looks for a second straight series sweep when they take on the Jazz Monday night.
You may have heard about the guy who laid a $50,000 bet on the Warriors to beat the Jazz at -10,000 odds to beat the Jazz in the Western Conference Semifinals series between the team, and how he was subsequently mocked for his stupidity on the internet. While it can certainly still be regarded as a foolish decision in retrospect, that man stands in a strong position to win $500 as the Warriors lead the Jazz 3-0 in the series heading into Monday night’s Game 4. In losing the first three games of the series by 12 points, 11 points and 11 points, respectively, the Jazz have managed to avoid being blown out but have also not posed a significant challenge to this dominant Warriors team. They were only 6.5-point underdogs for Game 3, their first home game of the series, and trailed by only two points with just under four minutes remaining on the clock. Less than 90 seconds of game time later, though, the Warriors had built up an 11-point lead and cruised to victory from there. Since 1996, favorites with a winning percentage of at least .750 and leading a playoff series are 38-73 ATS when playing a team with a winning record. In the same timeframe, games involving a home team that is revenging a loss of 10 points or more against an opponent coming off a road win of 10 points or more are 99-49 Under against totals between 200 and 209.5. Jazz PG George Hill has missed Games 2 and 3 of this series with a toe injury, and he is questionable to play Monday night. Also injured for Utah is SG Rodney Hood, who is probable, and SG Alec Burks, who is doubtful.
Thanks to a nagging calf injury that kept him out of two games in Round 1, Golden State SF Kevin Durant (24.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.0 BPG; all player stats are playoffs) was playing only his fifth game of the 2017 playoffs in Game 3 against Utah on Saturday. It was easily his best, as he led the Warriors to victory with 38 points on 15-of-26 shooting and 13 rebounds. He played 39 minutes, meaning he posted personal highs for this postseason in points, shot attempts, rebounds and minutes played. He had a busy final few minutes, scoring seven points after the Jazz had cut the lead to two with 3:56 remaining and also committing a flagrant foul on defense. (Admittedly, it was pretty soft, as far as flagrants go.) PG Stephen Curry (26.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.6 SPG) didn’t have his best shooting game, going 6-of-20 from the floor and 3-of-11 from three. He did, however, shoot 8-of-9 from the free throw line and finish with 23 points, five rebounds and four assists. He has scored either 22 or 23 points in all three games in this series. SG Klay Thompson (15.4 PPG, 1.0 SPG) has been quite quiet this postseason, and his six points on 1-of-9 shooting in Game 3 was easily his worst performance in the playoffs so far. PF Draymond Green (14.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.7 APG, 2.0 SPG, 3.0 BPG) continues to be a floor general all over the court especially on defense.
Hill (15.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.6 APG) was Utah’s second-leading scorer in the regular season and has also been so in the playoffs, so losing him for the majority of this series thus far has just further stacked the odds against the Jazz as they look to take down a superior Warriors team. In his place, Utah has started PG Shelvin Mack (4.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 2.0 APG). He is averaging 12.5 PPG in his two starts, but has only shot a combined 7-of-22 on field goal attempts (31.8%). He played 37 minutes in Game 3 while backup PGs Dante Exum (2.8 PPG) and Raul Neto (2.4 PPG) only played a total of five. Mack had a team-best plus-minus of +6 in that one. Hill’s absence has put even more scoring pressure on SF Gordon Hayward (24.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.4 APG), and, after scoring only 12 points in Game 1, he had 33 in G2 and 29 in G3. He made 13 of 14 free throw attempts in Game 3, which seems to be an effective way of both scoring and limiting transition opportunities for the Warriors. Utah’s other young star, C Rudy Gobert (11.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 1.4 BPG) hasn’t exactly dominated against size-challenged Golden State, but he has been more than adequate. Game 3 was his best of the series, as he put up 21 points and 15 rebounds. His 7-of-15 night at the charity stripe, however, left much to be desired.
Monday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Golden State vs. Utah
The entire second round of the NBA playoffs has been all about blowouts as 14 of the 15 games played so far have been decided by double digits. That's not exactly the type of entertaining basketball the league was hoping for to sustain strong viewership, but it speaks to just how much home court advantage means to some of these upper-echelon teams, and how wide the gap is between the likes of Cleveland/Golden State and everyone else behind them.
Thankfully, at least two of the series' that have featured all four games decided by 10+ points are tied at two games apiece (Boston/Washington and San Antonio/Houston), so there may be some entertaining basketball for fans in store soon, but the only game on tonight's card is Game 4 of the Golden State/Utah series where the Warriors could sweep away their second straight opponent and do so by double digits in each win.
Golden State has gone 3-0 SU and ATS so far in this series as Game 3 was a masterful performance by Kevin Durant and the coaching staff to turn Utah's biggest strength on defense – Rudy Gobert – into their biggest liability. Whenever the Warriors needed a bucket, or simply wanted to extend their lead, they ran a high pick-and-roll between Durant and Gobert's man to get the switch with Durant vs. Gobert. If the Jazz big man stayed back near the paint and gave KD a cushion, Durant had no problem shooting and hitting outside shots.
When Gobert and the Jazz realized he had to close on Durant in those switches, Durant's speed and length were too much for Gobert to deal with and he'd drive to the bucket for an easy hoop. It was a classic Catch-22 for Utah as they were damned if they do (close out) and damned if they don't. There isn't too many other things more demoralizing then for a team to turn your greatest strength on one end of the floor into your greatest weakness and Utah never had a chance once Durant started knocking down those outside shots with regularity.
However, with a day off to make some adjustments, Utah should be more prepared for those situations tonight and with their season on the line, everyone's got to step up and play their best. It's often said that the fourth game of a series is the hardest to win, and getting back to the 14 of 15 games in this round being decided by 10+ points, the lone game that wasn't was Cleveland's fourth win over Toronto yesterday to complete the sweep.
The Raptors may have been overmatched and undermanned, but the guys who were on the floor showed tremendous fight during the final 24 minutes and managed to actually “win” the 2nd half by five points. Utah is going to need a similar performance from everyone on their roster tonight if they have any hope of extending their season for at least one more game.
Truth be told, Utah isn't likely to win this game SU, but that doesn't mean we will see yet another double digit win by Golden State. The Warriors would love to get as much extended rest as possible before the Conference Finals, but with the only game this round being decided by less than 10 points being the only potential close-out game of a series, bettors should expect a similar result tonight.
For one, the fourth game of a series is the hardest to win and that process is magnified even more when it's on the road. Utah has no choice but to fire everything they've got at Golden State tonight, and they'll be much more prepared to counter those Durant vs. Gobert switches that come up. Utah is 5-1 ATS the last six times coming off a double digit loss and the inflated number of -9 here is too many points for a close out game – even in a mismatch series like this.
Unless this game ends up with a 20+ point margin in the final five minutes, Utah is likely to fight down to the final buzzer meaning that a back-door cover is always a possibility, but I'm not sure we will even need that as bettors. This Game 4 draws a lot of parallels to the Cleveland/Toronto Game 4 and like we saw in that one, the home dog will either push or cover this many points tonight.
Best Bet: Utah +9