NBA Knowledge
Miami-Toronto
Three series games decided by total of 14 points; two went to OT, road team won two, but Valanciunas (ankle) is done for series. Miami lost six of last eight games with Toronto, including three of last four in Miami. Home side won eight of last 12 series games overall. Seven of last eight Miami games stayed under total, as have nine of last 11 Raptor games. Lowry had 33 in Game 3 after going 10-35 from floor in first two games; Raptors are +39 with Valanciunas on floor, -37 with him on bench. and he is out for series now.
Portland-Golden State
Golden State won eight of last ten vs Portland, and covered 10 of last 13 but Curry isn't expected back here. Blazers are 8-5 in last 13 games, with seven of last 11 staying under the total. Golden State won nine of its last 12 games, covered eight of last ten- under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Warriors won three of last five visits to Portland. Over is 7-2 in last nine games between these two teams. Lillard had 40 points last game; Blazers were +25 in 30:00 with Cal alum Crabbe on floor.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 8-6, over: 7-7
Armadillosports.com
Monday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
By Covers.com
The Miami Heat and the Portland Trail Blazers both face must win games at home Monday night to avoid 3-1 series deficits. We have all of the angles covered with our NBA Playoffs betting previews.
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat (-5.5, 189)
Kyle Lowry found his shooting stroke and the Toronto Raptors jumped back into the driver’s seat in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Lowry scored 29 of his 33 points in the second half of Game 3 and will try to put together two solid games in a row when the Raptors visit the Miami Heat for Game 4 on Monday.
Lowry was shooting 30.8 percent through the first nine postseason games and went 2-of-14 from 3-point range in the first two games of the semifinals before breaking out with five 3-pointers in the second half on Saturday. “I’ve got a guy to my left, he’s probably my biggest supporter, and backbone to me right now,” Lowry told reporters in reference to All-Star teammate DeMar DeRozan. “And he said ‘Just keep going.’ He’s always going to ride or die with the decisions I make, and my teammates too. So just go out there and take the shots I’ve taken all year.” The Heat decided to ride or die with Dwyane Wade at the end of Game 3 and left Goran Dragic, who led the team in scoring in the first two games of the series, on the bench down the stretch. Wade matched Lowry with 29 of his game-high 38 points in the second half but Joe Johnson missed a tying 3-point attempt in the final seconds and the Raptors sealed the 95-91 win at the free-throw line.
LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened as 5.5-point favorites and the line hasn't move as of Sunday afternoon. The total opened at 188.5 and was bet up slightly to 189. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (62-30, 48-44 ATS, 44-47-1 O/U): Toronto hung around in Game 1 and earned an overtime win in Game 2 despite Lowry’s struggles in part because center Jonas Valanciunas controlled the middle with a pair of double-doubles. The 7-0 Lithuanian added 16 points and 12 rebounds in 22 minutes in Game 2 before leaving with a sprained ankle and is considered day-to-day. “We may not look pretty, but we have gritty guys, they’re going to play hard and compete, that’s something that we have as an identity,” Raptors coach Dwane Casey told reporters. “It may not be the way everybody wants it to be done, but you’ve got a bunch of competitors in there. Now our thing is, we’ve been all year long, next man up, whoever that may be and (Saturday) it was Kyle and he got the lid off the bucket.”
ABOUT THE HEAT (53-39, 49-42-1 ATS, 37-54-1 O/U): Miami center Hassan Whiteside lasted only six minutes into Game 3 before going down with a right knee injury, and his status for the rest of the series is up in the air. The centers being out of the game opened things for the perimeter players but Dragic, whose 3-pointer in Game 2 forced overtime, was left on the bench after a late Heat timeout that resulted in Johnson’s missed 3-pointer. "It's not fun," Dragic said. "Of course, I would like to be (in the game), but that's a coaching decision, so I respect it. It is what it is."
TRENDS:
* Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Under is 7-0 in Raptors last 7 road games.
* Under is 7-1 in Heat last 8 overall.
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers (+5, 214.5)
The Portland Trail Blazers are back in the series after a win in Game 3 and look like a different team in front of their home fans. The Trail Blazers will try to even the Western Conference semifinals at two wins apiece when they host the top-seeded Golden State Warriors in Game 4 on Monday.
The availability of reigning MVP Stephen Curry has been looming over the entire series, and the star guard is inching closer to a return. Curry (knee sprain) played 2-on-2 before Game 3 but was on the bench in street clothes when the game started and had to watch Portland guard Damian Lillard bury deep 3-pointers and spark his team to victory while rallying his teammates and the home fans. “I didn’t think it was on me to go win the game or anything, but I did think it was my job to come out and be aggressive from the start,” Lillard told reporters. “A lot of times, the team will go as I go. That goes for more than just scoring the ball, that means how focused I am, how accountable I’m holding myself.” The Trail Blazers are undefeated at home during the playoffs and went 17-of-30 from 3-point range in the 120-108 victory.
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 4.5-point favorites on the road for this critical Game 4 matchup - by Sunday afternoon the line had been bet up to Warriors -5. The total opened at 214 and has been steady since its release. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (79-11, 51-37-2 ATS, 48-41-1 O/U): Golden State grabbed a 28-22 lead after the first quarter of Game 3 but fell off the pace when Draymond Green and Klay Thompson went to the bench to begin the second and never managed to get back over the hump. “We didn’t keep that same edge,” Thompson told reporters. “We got away from our game plan at times, especially on the offensive end, too many one- or two-pass shots. We’ve got to wear these guys down with five more passes and make those guys work out there playing big minutes, but we’ll make the adjustment Monday.” Curry will ramp up his practice work on Sunday and could be available in some capacity on Monday.
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (49-42, 48-43 ATS, 48-43 O/U): Portland got a huge boost on Saturday from small forward Al-Farouq Aminu, who went 8-of-9 from the floor, including 4-of-5 from 3-point range, to give Lillard some much-needed scoring support. “He had 23 points on nine shots, he shot it with confidence,” Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts told reporters of Aminu. “I thought defensively, he was solid. You’ve got to be able to score against Golden State. If you don’t score, they’re such an explosive offensive team that you’ve got to be able to score and I liked his aggressiveness a couple times on drives to the basket and obviously going 4 for 5 from three.” Aminu is averaging 17.3 points on 59.4 percent shooting in the series.
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Trail Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 road games.
* Over is 9-0 in Trail Blazers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
* Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Toronto at Miami
After splitting two overtime games in Canada, the pair played to another close call in Game 3 on Saturday and Toronto came out on top with a 95-91 victory over Miami as a 5½-point road underdog.
All-Star Kyle Lowry finally found his shot for the Raptors and finished with 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting. Dwyane Wade posted a game-high 38 points for the Heat in the loss and has easily been the best player on the court in this series.
The bigger news coming out of Saturday’s outcome was on the injury front and both teams were deeply affected in the middle. Heat center Hassan Whiteside sprained his knee and is listed as day-to-day but he’s not expected to play Monday. Since he’s awaiting a huge offseason contract, most are assuming you won’t see him for the rest of the series. Also, Toronto announced on Sunday that its center Jonas Valanciunas will miss the remainder of the conference semifinals with a sprained right ankle.
The loss of Whiteside (28 blocks) will certainly affect the Heat defensively and a trio of Udonis Haslem, Josh McRoberts and Amar'e Stoudemire will have to fill those big shoes.
Valanciunas isn’t necessarily known for his defense but you could argue that he’s been the best Toronto player in this series. Prior to getting hurt, he was averaging 18.3 PPG and 12.7 RPG against Miami.
For what it’s worth, the Raptors went 16-6 without the big man during the regular season while the Heat were 6-3 without Whiteside.
Even with key injuries to both sides, Miami opened as a five-point home favorite for Game 4 and that number has been pushed up to 5½ at most betting shops as of Monday morning.
Considering the underdog has gone 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in this series, I’m a little surprised that Miami has caught the early attention. I understand that they face a must-win situation but the Heat have gone 3-2 at home in the playoffs and including the results from this series, Toronto has won seven of the last 10 encounters between the pair.
For those believing that Miami won’t drop three straight, make a note that Charlotte beat them three consecutive times in the first round before the Heat rallied to win Game 6 and 7. The money-line for Monday has the Heat listed at minus-240 (Bet $100 to win $41) while the takeback on Toronto is 2/1.
The total for Game 4 opened at 188 and after the injury news came out on Sunday afternoon, the ‘over’ caught received attention and pushed the number up to 189 and even 190 at a few outfits. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the first three games and the lone ‘over’ connected in Game 1 thanks to the bomb from Lowry that forced the extra session.
The obvious handicap is that both teams are going to push the pace with small ball since the big men are out and that will lead to easy buckets. While I agree with that theory, neither of these teams are the Golden State Warriors.
Miami started the playoffs with 123 and 115 against Charlotte in the first round but has averaged 92.6 points per game since then which has resulted in a 7-1 ‘under’ record. Toronto has seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in the postseason, which includes a 4-0 record on the road.
After Monday’s contest the series heads back to Toronto with Game 5 taking place from Air Canada Centre on Wednesday.
Golden State at Portland
Portland came to play last Saturday as it captured a 120-108 victory over Golden State as a three-point home underdog. Damian Lillard led the Trail Blazers with 40 points, which included an eye opening 8-of-13 effort from 3-point land. Portland hit 57% (17-of-30) from 3-point land as a team and they also made 23-of-29 free throws, compared to just 10 freebies from Golden State.
The Warriors got great efforts from Draymond Green (37 points) and Klay Thompson (35 points) but it wasn’t enough to overcome the 3-point shooting barrage from Portland.
Reigning MVP Steph Curry hasn’t played in this series and early report had him scheduled to play on Monday but Warriors head coach Steve Kerr listed his status to ‘doubtful’ for Game 4. Curry has missed six of the last eight playoff games for the Warriors and the team has gone 4-2 without him.
Even though Curry is in doubt tonight, the oddsmakers opened Golden State as a 4 ½-point road favorite for Monday. The Warriors are minus-210 on the money line with Portland listed at plus-180.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Portland even up this series just based on what we’ve seen from them in this year’s playoffs. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 (3-1 ATS) at home in the playoffs and that shouldn’t be surprising since they went 28-13 SU and 21-20 ATS at the Moda Center during the regular season.
They’ve been fortunate to face some short-handed squads but wins are wins and if they continue to shoot a ridiculous percentage from 3-point land, the Blazers can play with anybody.
While Portland has been a great investment at home this season, backing the Warriors after a setback has been better. Golden State has gone 10-0 following a loss this season and it’s produced a 6-3-1 against the spread mark in those situations. The offense of the Warriors has been very sharp in these spots, averaging 120.2 PPG.
In the first round, Golden State pasted Houston 121-94 in Game 4 after dropping a one-point decision (97-96) to the Rockets in Game 3.
Knowing that the Spurs and Thunder are locked up at 2-2 in their conference semifinal matchup, I believe Golden State will have a greater sense of urgency on Monday and look to close out this series as quickly as possible.
Road favorites have gone 13-4 in this year’s NBA playoffs and have produced a 10-7 mark versus the number.
The adjusted series price has Golden State listed at minus-3000 while Portland is a 12/1 longshot.
The total for Game 4 has been pushed up to 214 after the first three games ranged from 210 to 212. The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in this series and could easily be 3-0 if Portland didn’t lay an egg in the fourth quarter of Game 2.
The pair will square off in Game 5 on Wednesday from Oracle Arena.
Monday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
TORONTO RAPTORS (62-30) at MIAMI HEAT (53-39)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Miami -5.5, Total: 190.0
The Raptors will be looking to take a 3-1 series lead when they face the Heat in Miami on Monday.
The Heat hosted the Raptors in Game 3 and Toronto ended up winning that one 95-91 as a 5.5-point road underdog. The Raptors now have control of this series and could really improve their chances of advancing by defeating Miami on Monday night.
A 3-1 lead with two games left to play in Toronto would likely be insurmountable for the Heat, so they’ll be playing with a lot of desperation in this game. One thing worth noting is that the Raptors are an impressive 72-49 ATS in a road game where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996. The Heat, meanwhile, are 16-7 ATS after having lost two of their past three games this season.
C Jonas Valanciunas (Ankle) is likely out for the remainder of the series for Toronto and Miami will likely be without C Hassan Whiteside (Knee) in this game. C Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) also remains out for the year for the Heat.
The Raptors are coming off of a huge victory and PG Kyle Lowry (15.5 PPG, 6.7 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) finally came through for Toronto in that one. Lowry finished the game with 33 points on 11-for-19 shooting from the field and 5-for-8 shooting from the outside in the win. He had been just 2-for-14 from three in the previous two games, so it’s important that he continues to knock down shots the rest of this series. Lowry was a 38.8% shooter from the outside during the regular season, so perhaps he’ll start to creep towards the norm moving forward.
It’s important that he and SG DeMar DeRozan (18.6 PPG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) are able to score moving forward. With Valanciunas out, this team is going to need more from its backcourt.
C Bismack Biyombo (4.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG in playoffs) is a player to watch as well. He’ll draw the start for the Raptors in Game 4 and the team will need him to bring a ton of energy on both ends of the floor. He’s a very good rebounder and should also be able to protect the rim moving forward.
The Heat are also going to need a lot out of their backcourt in the remainder of this series, as the team is not very sure when Whiteside will be making a return to the court.
SG Dwyane Wade (21.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.6 APG in playoffs) was unstoppable last game, finishing with 38 points, eight boards and four assists in 36 minutes of action. He’ll need to put forth a similar performance on Monday and it should be possible. Wade has had a lot of success going to the bucket and he’s also shooting very well from the outside, which is an added bonus for somebody that didn’t really shoot any threes during the regular season. PG Goran Dragic (15.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.7 APG in playoffs) will need to be better in Game 4 for Miami. Lowry torched him in Game 3 and the Heat desperately need him to hold his own in that matchup.
PF Luol Deng (15.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs) must also step it up for Miami. He had just four points in 39 minutes of action in Game 3 and that is not going to cut it moving forward. Deng was a big part of Miami’s first round victory and will need to start knocking down some outside shots in this series.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Raptors at Heat (-5, 194.5)
Miami won the first game of this series in overtime, but Toronto has won the last two games, including their 95-91 win in Game 3 on Saturday. All three games have been highly competitive (2 went into overtime) with the winning margins coming by 6, 4, and 4 points. Based on that alone, taking the points looks like the right way to play this series. However, it’s unpredictable what will happen in Game 4 based on two significant injuries on both teams. The Raptors will be without center Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) while the Heat will be without their center, Hassan Whiteside, because of a knee injury. Both teams will be forced to play ‘small ball’ and how that alters Game 4 is anyone’s guess. This total has risen nearly 7 points higher from the opening number, which indicates a faster pace of play is expected tonight.
Warriors (-6, 215.5) at Trail Blazers
Portland was down 0-2 in this series before winning Game 3 on Saturday night. The Trail Blazers shot the ball incredibly well as they hit 56.7% (17-30) from three-point land. As mentioned before, Portland is simply a much better team at home (32-13 SU) than they are on the road (17-29 SU). Golden State is obviously the better team even without Stephen Curry, and it’s expected they’ll come with a strong bounce back effort tonight. However, I have no interest in laying 6 points into a very strong home team, especially since the Warriors might still be without their best player (Curry is listed as questionable tonight).