NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, November 14th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Pacers won seven of last eight games with Orlando (7-1 vs spread); three of last four series games stayed under. Magic lost four of last five visits here (1-4 vs spread) but won last one. Orlando snapped 3-game skid with win at OKC yesterday; they’re 2-2 as road underdogs, Four of last six Magic games stayed under. Indiana is 2-2 as home favorite; they lost three of last four games. Over is 6-2 in Pacers’ last eight games.
Thunder won eight of last ten games with Detroit, but Pistons covered four of last five; last four series games stayed under the total. OKC won three of last four visits here (1-3 vs spread). Thunder lost at home to Orlando yesterday; they lost last three games, are 1-1 as road dogs. Detroit won/covered all four of its home games; they’ve lost three of last four games overall. Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Knicks lost their last five games with Dallas; Mavericks won last three visits here, by 2-20-7 points. Over is 3-2 in last five series games. Dallas is 2-3 as a road underdog; they’ve lost six of their first eight games, with five of last seven staying under total. New York is 2-1 as a home favorite; they’ve lost five of last seven series games. Over is 2-2 in Knicks’ home games.
Celtics won their last four games with New Orleans (3-1 vs spread); they won last two visits to Bourbon Street by 6-18 points. Over is 3-2 in their last five visits here. Boston is 2-0 as a road favorite; favorite covered four of their five road games (2-3 SU). Last three Boston games stayed under the total. New Orleans is 0-5 at home; they were favored in four of five games. Four of last five Pelican games went over total.
Houston won its last five games with Philly; 76ers covered three of last four series games. Sixers lost their last five visits here (2-3 vs spread) but covered last two. Over is 6-2 in last eight series games. 76ers are 1-8 this season, 1-2 as a road underdog, losing road games by 16-7-21 points. Houston split its two home games, which were decided by total of 7 points; under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Spurs won/covered their last eight games with Miami, last three of which went over the total. Heat lost last three visits to Alamo by 13-17-24 points. Miami lost six of its last seven games; they’re 1-4 as an underdog, 1-2 on road, losing last two away games by 9-12 points. Spurs won last two games by 6-10 points; they’re 2-3 as home favorites, losing three of last four SU at home. Spurs’ last three games stayed under the total.
Memphis is 6-4 in its last ten games with Utah; under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Grizzlies lost last two visits here, by 5-10 points. Memphis lost three of last four games; they’re 0-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 7-36-10 points. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Jazz won six of its last eight games; they’re 2-1 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Five of last six Jazz games went over the total.
Clippers won five of last seven games with Brooklyn; four of last five series games stayed under the total. Nets lost last five visits to Staples to play the Clippers, covering three of last four. LA is off to a 9-1 start; they’re 4-1 as home favorites, with all four of their home wins by 13+ points. Clippers’ last three home games stayed under. Brooklyn won three of last five games; they’re 3-1 as a road underdog. Over is 3-1 in their road games.
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers
Historically, Orlando hasn't had many Magic tricks up its sleeve when clashing with Pacers. In nine meetings the result has been one win vs eight losses for Orlando with a money-burning 1-8 record against the betting line. Here in Indiana, Magic are 1-6 SU, 5-2 ATS. Additionally, Orlando has been a terrible play for bettors on the road going 3-9 ATS mark last 12 away from the Magic Kingdom and are playing without rest.
Monday's Top Bets
By Sportsbook.ag
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Houston Rockets
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Houston (-11.5); Total set at 214.5
This is definitely not the most attractive NBA game on tonight's card from a pure fan perspective, but that doesn't mean you can't add a unit or two to your bankroll from it.
The 1-8 SU Philadelphia 76ers are in Houston to take on a Rockets team that just split a home-and-home with the title contending Spurs. The 106-100 home loss by Houston on Saturday night was the first game back after a five-game road trip that saw Houston go 3-2 SU, close it out with a road victory at San Antonio as 8.5-point underdogs, and play some quality teams like Atlanta and Cleveland along the way.
After all those tough games against elite competition, the Rockets get to welcome in the lowly 76ers tonight and we should see a high-tempo, up-and-down game.
Houston has had a tendency to play down to the level of their competition in year's past and that has to be a little concerning if you are considering laying the double digit points tonight.
However, it's not the point spread that I'm looking at as this total – as high as it is – still seems a bucket or two too low. Yes, the 214.5 number is in line with the season average of points allowed for both teams – Houston allows 106.7 and Philly gives up 108.2 – but the likely game script of this game suggests we won't see much defense.
Houston has had trouble keeping the opposition below the century mark this year, and only once have they held an opponent under 98 points. For all of Philadelphia's youth and inexperience, the 76ers have shown lately that their offense is starting to take shape with three of their last five games seeing 101 or more points scored.
Two of those three outings came in a home-and-home series with Indiana, but the 101 points they put up on Cleveland raised some eyebrows about the potential of the 76ers offense.
With the Rockets knack for playing down to their opponent, and in this case it will be Houston's defense that slacks, Philly's young scorers like Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid should have strong performances.
As a double-digit home favorite, Houston's got to be looking at this game as one they should easily take simply by relying on James Harden and the offense. Philly has not held an opponent to less than 102 points all year (ironically it was the defending champion Cavaliers) and Harden and company should take full advantage.
Houston has gone 'under' the total in four of their last five games overall, and are 0-2 O/U at home this year, but this is exactly the spot and opponent where the home fans should see one of those memorable offensive performances from this team.
With everyone basically shooting the lights out against the 76ers this year, one of the league's best scorers in Harden will reach 30+. Houston has to believe that they should have no problem winning this game easily by not worrying about defense too much and baiting the Sixers into a track meet.
The Rockets have more depth and better shooters all around and that's definitely the style of play we should see.
What puts this total play 'over' the top – pun intended – is the fact that current betting percentages on this total at Vegasinsider.com show it's about a 50/50 split. Yet, this number has actually already been bumped up a point from opening up at 213.5 and I've got to agree with this move.
Houston fans are used to seeing plenty of points from both teams in their building and this should be the first time this year that they'll get to see that.
Best Bet: Take Over 214.5 points.