NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, November 6th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
BOSTON (8 - 2) at ATLANTA (2 - 8 ) - 11/6/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the first half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=98 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 8-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 9-4 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN (3 - 6) at PHOENIX (4 - 6) - 11/6/2017, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 31-48 ATS (-21.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 4-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 4-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI (4 - 5) at GOLDEN STATE (7 - 3) - 11/6/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 120-156 ATS (-51.6 Units) in November games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-38 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-0 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON @ ATLANTA
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Boston
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
BROOKLYN @ PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Brooklyn is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games
MIAMI @ GOLDEN STATE
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Golden State is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games at home
Golden State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 game
StatFox Super Situations
BOSTON at ATLANTA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games 95-49 since 1997. ( 66.0% | 41.1 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
BROOKLYN at PHOENIX
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, first half of the season 133-75 since 1997 ( 63.9% | 50.5 units )
BROOKLYN at PHOENIX
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (BROOKLYN) revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more 21-9 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.0% | 19.9 units )
NBA Knowledge
Hawks won/covered four of last five games with Boston; under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Celtics are 2-4 vs spread in last six games in this building. Boston won/covered its last eight games; they’re 5-1 SU on road, 2-0 as a road favorite. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Hawks won in Cleveland Sunday, anding an 8-game losing skid. Hawks are 0-3 at home, 1-2 as a home underdog. Last three Atlanta games went over the total.
Nets won/covered four of last five games with Phoenix; over is 3-1 in last four series games. Brooklyn covered three of last four games in this building. Nets lost their last four games; they’re 1-3 vs spread as a road underdog. Last three Brooklyn games went over. Phoenix won four of its last seven games after an 0-3 start; they won their last two home games. Four of Suns’ last five games went over the total.
Warriors won five of last six games with Miami, but Heat covered the last four. Miami is 3-0-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Oakland. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Heat lost four of its last six games; they’re 2-0 as a road underdog. Four of their last five games stayed under. Golden State won six of its last seven games; they’re 0-4 as a home favorite. Four of their last five games went over the total.
Armadillosports.com
Nets, Suns meet in Phoenix
By: StatFox.com
The Nets look to rebound against the Suns on Monday after surrendering a big lead to Phoenix just day earlier.
In a matchup of two young, rebuilding teams on Tuesday night, the Brooklyn Nets appeared to have gotten the better of the Phoenix Suns at home when they took an 18-point lead in the third quarter. The Suns erased the lead before the quarter was even over, though, and thoroughly outplayed the Nets in the fourth quarter to come away with a 122-114 win on the road. It was a tough loss for Brooklyn, their third straight after a triumphant win over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers just days earlier. And it was an especially triumphant win for the Suns, their third in four games after starting the season 0-3 and seeing head coach Earl Watson fired. Brooklyn doesn't have to wait long for a shot at revenge, though, as they head to Phoenix for a rematch on Monday night. PG Eric Bledsoe remains off the court and on the trade block for the Suns, and the team knows that any day could bring his official departure and an influx of new talent (or draft picks).
The Nets will have to hope that their new point guard D'Angelo Russell isn't too mentally drained on Sunday, as he's likely spent all summer focusing on the preceding game: A Friday night showdown with the team that traded him, the Los Angeles Lakers. With two days off in between, though, it's not a huge concern. Largely, he's been the player people expected to see in his third season: A scoring point guard that is also a creative enough passer to make plays in the halfcourt. He scored 33 points on 21 shots in the first go-round against Phoenix, but had a game-worst +/- of -22 on the evening. Even without PG Jeremy Lin, who was lost early in the year to a season-ending injury, the overall talent is significantly higher in Brooklyn than it has been the past couple year. That includes SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who, like, Russell, is in his third year in the league and has taken a significant step forward in scoring. He had 21 against the Suns on Tuesday. PG Spencer Dinwiddie had 15 points off the bench. Second-year SG Caris LeVert and trade acquisition SG Allen Crabbe provide further talent at the wing, although Crabbe had a dismal 2-of-10 shooting performance in the loss to Phoenix. C Timofey Mozgov and SF DeMarre Carroll, also new to town this season, round out the starting lineup alongside Russell, Hollis-Jefferson and LeVert.
Fans of the NBA are keeping a close eye on the development of third-year Suns SG Devin Booker, who is still remarkably young—he turned 21 on October 30th. On an incredibly young team last year, he assumed a hefty usage load for the Suns, and while it's good that he's gotten so much experience, one wonders if he might be developing bad habits that can often be seen in volume scorers on bad teams. Early on this year, though, it looks like he has taken another step forward. Through eight games this season, he was averaging 22.1 PPG, his exact same scoring total from 2016-17. The difference? His PER through eight games sits at 20.0, while his 2016-17 PER was an unimpressive 14.6. Time will tell if this performance holds up, but interim head coach Jay Triano appears to have him doing all the right things. He had 32 points on 11-of-22 shooting against Brooklyn on Tuesday, adding seven rebounds and four assists. PG Mike James, who has somehow found himself in an NBA starting lineup after a career as a journeyman, scored 24, and SF T.J. Warren scored 20. The next night, in a 122-116 road win over an excellent Washington team, Warren dropped a staggering 40 points and 10 rebounds. He had 27 a week earlier against Utah. He's also had three single-digit scoring games so far this season, though, so the fourth-year player needs to figure out how to bring it on a nightly basis. Despite only scoring two points against Brooklyn, C Tyson Chandler had a game-best +/- of +26 thanks to his 13 rebounds and stiff interior defense.
Monday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Last time the Heat saw the Warriors on the floor, Dion Waiters drained a game-winning 3-pointer over Klay Thompson, walking off as conquering hero in an unlikely win that was one of the defining moments of Miami's resurgence last season.
An encore isn't expected. At least not Monday night.
Waiters, who returned back to South Florida when his new daughter was born Sunday, is unlikely to rejoin the team in time to play this one but will probably be back before the week is up. The Warriors have long memories, so we'll see whether they choose to send a message to his teammates instead.
Oddsmakers certainly believe that to be a possibility, installing Golden State as a 16.5-point favorite on Monday, the largest spread of the young season that the defending champs have been saddled with. Previously, that number had been 14.5 on Oct. 29 against Detroit, and the Heat can take some hope from the fact the Pistons won that game outright, shocking the Dubs at Oracle 115-107 after erasing a 16-point deficit.
Golden State hasn't lost since, winning all three of last week's games by a combined 67 points. No slouches were in the mix, either, as the Clippers Spurs and Nuggets were the victims. After an inconsistent 4-3 start, the Warriors look like themselves again. They'll attempt to notch their first home cover after coming up short in each of their first four, losing two games outirght.
The Heat won their first road game in three tries this season on Sunday afternoon, surviving the squandering a 23-point lead to open the fourth quarter against the Clips before making enough plays in the closing stages to post a 104-101 win at Staples Center.
Ideally, Miami would've been able to rest its starters in preparation for the massive challenge that awaits in Oakland on Monday night, but L.A. sixth man Lou Williams had other ideas, sparking a comeback thanks to a 29-4 run that incredibly helped his team grab a 95-93 lead with 2:55 left. The lead was swapped multiple times in the final minute before the Heat ultimately won when a pair of James Johnson free throws held up after Blake Griffin missed a long fadeaway jumper with three seconds remaining.
It's strange to call any win this early in the season important, but considering it had already lost a late lead in a 95-94 loss to Denver to open a season-long six-game road trip that is arguably the toughest of its season, Miami needed to leave L.A. with what it had earned itself after an excellent first 36 minutes on Sunday. It makes you wonder whether that satisfaction will have the Heat feeling a little complacent as they face their first back-to-back situation of the season, but making their lone trip into Oracle Arena to face the defending champs could offset those concerns.
Most teams always find a little extra when testing themselves against the best, both from a competitive standpoint and a desire to not get embarrassed. After playing tough games in Denver and L.A., we'll see how much Miami has left in the tank for this one.
Josh Richardson, who had been starting at small forward, swtiched to shooting guard to fill in for Waiters, allowing Justise Winslow to man his more natural position upon entering the starting lineup. Expect that to continue against the Warriors, which if nothing else, gives head coach Erik Spoelstra the opportunity to put his top defensive lineup out there from the onset. Guards Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington are in line to continue seeing their minutes increase off the bench. Fellow reserve James Johnson had been deeling with knee tendinitis last week, so after averaging nearly 30 minutes off the bench on the first two games of this trip and beginning to look like the version of himself that helped key last year's resurgence, his level here could be the x-factor as the Heat attempt to hang around.
Center Hassan Whiteside will provide matchup problems for the smaller Warriors with his ability to control the paint, but he also was dealing with knee discomfort late last month that could have Miami cautious about how they utilize him on the second night of a back-to-back. The 7-footer had 26 points and 20 rebounds in a 107-95 loss at Golden State last January and added a double-double in the Waiters-led win.
Golden State has won four games by at least 19 points this season, including all three last week. Minnesota, currently sporting the longest unbeaten streak in the West at five games, comes in Wednesday, while the exciting 76ers, entering the week with three straight wins, arrive Friday, so this could be a tune-up spot. Steve Kerr got his entire team's attention following the loss to Detroit, saying the game has to matter to them despite how early in the season we are. He got the results he wanted on an impressive three-game skid and declared they "turned the corner." Now that the real Warriors have joined us, we'll see whether the blowouts continue.
Kerr thought Golden State took some of those early home games for granted, so we'll see if a revival that has seen it shoot 55 percent in its three wins continues against short-handed Miami. The 'over' is 7-3 in Warriors' games this season but just 2-4-1 over the Heat's last seven. The total has been placed at 227.
Injury Concerns
The night's biggest injury concern involves Brooklyn forward Trevor Booker, a key part of the bench mob who has averaged 10.8 points and 7.4 rebounds. Due to back trouble that sidelined him for last Friday's loss to the Lakers, he's considered questionable to face Phoenix and should be considered a game-time decision.
Suns forward T.J. Warren returned from a head injury on Sunday in a 112-95 loss to San Antonio after leaving last Friday's loss to the Knicks. He didn't look as sharp prior to taking a shot to the head, but avoided a concussion and should be fine to participate against the Nets.
Atlanta, which didn't allow its injuries to prevent it from pulling a shocking road upset (+600) at Cleveland, return home for a date with the Celtics and could get backup point guard Malcolm Delaney back. According to the AJC's Michael Cunningham, starting power forward Mike Muscala (knee), who was filling in for Ersan Ilyasova (knee), won't participate again and joins center Miles Plumlee (quad) and DeAndre Bembry (wrist) as out. The team signed Tyler Cavanaugh to a two-way contract to provide frontcourt depth.
Boston, which also played last night, suffered no injury issues in beating Orlando.
Head-to-head Trends
The Celtics have struggled with Atlanta under Brad Stevens. Since 2013, the Hawks are 13-7 straight up in this series, which includes falling in the 2016 first-round series they dropped in six. Of course, Al Horford was on Atlanta's side back then, but even with him clad in green last season, the Hawks went 2-1 SU/ATS.
Despite their brutal run of late, the Nets had won four straight (3-1 ATS) in the series before losing at home on Halloween night 122-114. Three of the four meeting have gone 'over' the posted total, while the lone outlier featured 224 points and was a missed 3-pointer away from also clearing the number. Both teams have pledged to run this season, so it's not surprising to see tonight's figure open at 234.
NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Monday's Picks and Analysis
Covers.com
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks (+8.5, 204.5)
Who would have ever thought it possible a team with Kyrie Irving manning the point guard position would possess the league’s best defense? Irving is famous for his matador defense and while he still gets lost on most screens, you can tell from watching the Celtics play he’s putting more effort into his defense than he ever did in Cleveland.
Irving leads the league in steals with 2.4 per game and the Celtics are tops in defensive rating at 94.7 points allowed per 100 possessions.
The Hawks are coming off a win over the Cavaliers, but don’t put too much stalk in that. Four of the five previous teams to beat the Cavs failed to cover in their next contest.
Pick: Under 204.5
Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns (-1.5, 234)
The shot in the arm the Suns got when they let go of Earl Watson and appointed Jay Triano as the new bench boss seems to be wearing off. Phoenix got outscored by 21 points in the third quarter Sunday night in San Antonio and lost to the Spurs 112 - 95. And on Friday night they were victims of Kristaps Porzingis going into Godzilla mode.
This is the Suns’ third game in four nights and their first game back home after a six-game away stint. That’s normally a tough spot for a team to give its best effort.
Pick: Nets +1.5
Yesterday’s picks: 0-2
Season record: 20-20
Total Streaks
*The Under is 21-5-2 in the Celtics’ last 28 road games and 6-2 in their last eight games overall.
*The Over is 4-0 in the Hawks last four games.
*The Over is 6-2 in the Suns’ last eight games playing on zero days’ rest.
*The Over is 5-1 in the Warriors last six home games.
Injury to Watch
Miami Heat guard Dion Waiters flew back to Florida over the weekend to be present for the birth of his daughter. It’s unclear whether Waiters will be able to rejoin the Heat in time to suit up against the Warriors on Monday night. He has a $1.1 million incentive in his contract if he plays 70 or more games this season and he already missed the Heat’s game on Sunday against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Waiters is the Heat’s third-leading scorer at 15.9 points per game. Justice Winslow would be the likely replacement in the starting lineup if Waiters doesn’t make it back in time.
Ref to Watch
Ken Mauer is the lead official in the Nets-Suns game and that’s good news for Over bettors. The Over is 5-1 in games reffed by Mauer this season and 13-5 in games worked by any of the three members working tonight’s game.
Trends
*The Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.
*The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The Heat are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.
Consensus
About 65 percent of players like the Miami Heat to cover as 16-point away dogs against the Golden State Warriors.