NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, October 23rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, until these teams get some games under their belts. I’ll give you what relevant information I have:
Pistons won six of last seven games with Philly (6-1 vs spread); 76ers lost four of last five visits to the Motor City (1-4 vs spread, under 3-0 in last three). Philly is 0-3 to start season, losing by 5-10-34 points (1-2 vs spread, over 2-1). Detroit is 2-1 to start season, 3-0 vs spread- over is 2-1 in their games. Pistons beat Charlotte by 12 in their only home game.
Miami won five of its last seven games with Atlanta (7-0 vs spread); under is 8-2 in last 10 series games. Hawks are 1-3-1 vs spread in last five visits to Miami. Atlanta lost two of its first three games, all on road (under 2-1). Heat split its first two games (0-2 vs spread, over 2-0); they beat Indiana by 4 in their only home game.
Rockets won four of last six games with Memphis (over 4-2). Grizzlies are 3-2 vs spread in last six visits to Houston. Memphis opened with home wins over Pelicans/Warriors (under 2-0); this is their road opener. Rockets won their first three games (2-1 vs spread, under 2-1); they beat Dallas by 16 in their home opener.
Hornets/Bucks split their last eight meetings; Milwaukee was 5-3 vs spread in those games. Over is 3-1 in last four series games. Charlotte covered four of last five games in this building. Bucks won two of first three games (over 3-0), splitting pair of home games- they lost to the Cavaliers. Charlotte split its first two games (under 2-0), losing only road game by 12 in Detroit.
Warriors won their last six games with Dallas; they’re 7-3 vs spread in last ten series games. Over is 4-2 in last six series games. Golden State covered three of last four visits to Dallas; they’re 1-2 to start season (0-3 vs spread, over 2-1), with only win at New Orleans by 8, Mavericks are 0-3 to start season, losing by 6-5-16 points (under 2-1)- they’re 0-2 at home.
Spurs are 8-2 in last ten games with Toronto, but 3-3 vs spread in last six; over is 6-2 in last eight series games. Raptors are 1-4 vs spread in last five visits to the Alamo. Toronto won/covered their first two games (over 2-0) but this is their road opener. Spurs won their first two games by 8-10 points (over 1-1)— they beat Minnesota by 8 in their home opener.
Wizards won four of last six games with Denver; over is 4-1 in last five. Washington is 2-3 vs spread in its last five games in this building- they won their first two games by 5-4 points, both at home (0-2 vs spread, over 2-0). Nuggets split their first two games (under 2-0), beating Kings by 17 in their home opener.
Suns fired their coach after three games; they lost six of last seven games vs Sacramento-under is 5-1 in last six series games. Kings are 8-2 vs spread in last 10 series games, 4-1 in last five visits here. Sacramento lost two of three games to open season (under 3-0); they split pair of road games. Phoenix is 0-3 with two 40-point losses (under 2-1); they’re a mess.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Monday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Monday’s NBA slate has eight games on tap and seven of the matchups will likely have the home squad close as a favorite. No overnight line was posted on the Golden State-Dallas matchup due to the possible suspension of Warriors point guard Stephen Curry. With or without the All-Star, the Mavericks will be healthy home underdogs for this game. Also, the Atlanta-Miami game didn’t open due to key injuries for both clubs.
Opening Week Notes
The Phoenix Suns fired head coach Earl Watson on Sunday after the team started 0-3 both straight up and against the spread behind a defense that has allowed 128.7 points per game. Oddsmakers at BookMaker.eu offered up a “First Coach Fired” prop and they didn’t even have Watson listed as a contender, which put him in the Field Odds at 4/1.
The firing led to Suns point guard Eric Bledsoe posting a Tweet – “I Don’t wanna be here.” Bledsoe only has one year left on his deal and he’s cheap by NBA standards but the loss of Brandon Knight to injury this summer might make it tough to deal him.
Along with the Suns, the 76ers, Mavericks sit at 0-3 while the Bulls and Knicks are also winless at 0-2. If you read my NBA pieces on VegasInsider.com, you’ll probably read the phrase “Make or Miss” league. It’s early but the Suns (39.7%) are the worst shooting team in the league while the Bulls (39.8%), Mavs (40.8%) and 76ers (41%) are next in line.
New York hasn’t been as bad but if continues to blow 21-point leads like it did last Saturday at home to Detroit, then head coach Jeff Hornacek might be joining Watson for an early vacation.
Ten teams are attempting more than 30 field goals a game from 3-point land and there are another three just below at 29. Last season, only six averaged more than 30 and just two teams did so in the 2015-16.
If those numbers don’t turn your head then check out this one on New Orleans forward DeMarcus Cousins. The All-Star ‘big man’ is leading the Pelicans with 7.7 three-pointers taken per game.
If you’ve been backing the both Cleveland (1-2 ATS) and Golden State (0-3 ATS) early this season, please accept my apologies. Since the public is attracted to these clubs, the numbers are always going to be inflated.
The Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook had Giannis Antetokounmpo listed at 7/1 odds to win the NBA regular season MVP before the season tipped off. I would expect an adjustment after watching him post 38.3 PPG, 9.7 rebounds and five assists.
As far as rookies go, Lonzo Ball (8.7 APG) and Ben Simmons (6 APG) can certainly dish the ball, but neither shoot from the outside with confidence. The kid Dillon Brooks on Memphis has looked sharp and De’Aaron Fox on Sacramento reminds me of John Wall, just a couple notches slower but so is everybody else.
Game of the Night – Toronto at San Antonio
We’re almost one week into the regular season and only six of the 30 teams in the league remain undefeated, which includes the two clubs squaring off in this matchup.
The Spurs opened as 2½-point home favorites and I still think the rating on them is a tad low, even with All-Star Kawhi Leonard (quad) and point guard Tony Parker (quad) still sidelined.
San Antonio has opened 2-0 (1-0-1 ATS) and its winning with defense, ranked first in scoring with 88 PPG. LaMarcus Aldridge just inked a new extension and he’s already notched a pair of double-doubles in those wins.
This will be the first road test of the season for Toronto (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) who opened with a pair of wire-to-wire victories at home albeit against the Bulls and 76ers. The ‘over’ connected in both those games and Toronto is currently ranked second in scoring (122.5 PPG).
After this game, the Raptors head to Golden State on Wednesday before meeting the Lakers at the Staples Center on Friday. The six-game road trip, the longest of the season, will finish after stops in Portland, Denver and Utah. Fortunately for Toronto, it plays in the Atlantic Division.
San Antonio swept Toronto last season and that’s been a common theme in this series. Including those wins, the Spurs have won 11 of the previous 13 matchups against the Raptors. Make a note that Toronto has not won at San Antonio since 2007 and is 0-8 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight trips to the AT&T Center.
Head-to-Head Trends & Notes
The Pistons have gone 6-1 both SU and ATS against the 76ers the last two seasons and every outcome during this span was decided by double digits. Detroit has started the season 3-0 versus the number.
The Heat have covered seven straight games (5-2 SU) against the Hawks. Miami won without Hassan Whiteside (knee) on Saturday and he’s ‘doubtful’ for this game. Atlanta point guard Dennis Schroder (ankle) is ‘doubtful’ as well.
Houston has won and covered four of the last six meetings against the Grizzlies, which includes a 2-1 mark at the Toyota Center. This will be the first road game for Memphis.
The Warriors have won six straight and 13 of the last 14 against the Mavericks. The club has gone 10-4 ATS during this run. Dallas rookie Dennis Smith Jr. (knee) sat out the last two games and could skip this contest as well.
Washington swept the season series last season and in the 2014-15 campaign but Denver captured both wins in 2016. Will the Nuggets keep the trend rolling and win Monday? I thought this line would be closer to pick ‘em knowing John Wall and Bradley Beal should play well against the youngsters in Denver’s backcourt. However, Washington wasn’t great on the road last season (19-21) and it will be difficult to run with the Nuggets, who are much deeper.
The Kings won and covered three of four against the Suns last season and are an eye opening 8-2 both SU and ATS in the last 10 games in this series. Sacramento should do better offensively against the Phoenix defense but with all the aforementioned factors going on, I’d tread lightly on this game.
Total Notes
The Hawks and Heat are 8-2 to the ‘under’ in the last 10 meetings.
Philadelphia has allowed 120 and 128 in two road games, both ‘over’ winners. Early movement pushed tonight’s number at Detroit from 213 to 214.
Memphis and Houston have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in their last six encounters.
Washington and Denver are looking at the highest total posted on Tuesday with an opener of 223. The Wizards have gone ‘over’ in their first two games while the Nuggets are 2-0 to the ‘under.’ Denver has played a pair of teams (Utah, Sacramento) that don’t exactly play fast and neither are juggernauts.
The Kings and Suns had three totals listed between 218 and 219 last season and Monday’s opener of 211 has been steamed down to 209½ at a few books this morning.
NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Monday's Picks and Analysis
Covers.com
The Phoenix Suns are 0-3 straight up and against the spread this season. Starting point guard Eric Bledsoe tweeted out his frustrations and head coach Earl Watson was fired shortly afterward.
Photo By - USA Today Images
We're two games under .500 for the season with our daily NBA picks and in desperate need of a 2-0 day. Is today that day? Our fingers are crossed and we're working on the toes but crossing your toes isn't as easy as it sounds.
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns (-1.5, 209.5)
The sun has set on the Earl Watson era in Phoenix. The Suns fired their head coach and appointed longtime NBA assistant coach Jay Triano as the interim head coach. It’s believed Triano will coach the team for the rest of the season.
Watson didn’t prove to be anything special as a sideline boss since replacing Jeff Hornacek as the Suns HC back in February 2016. The Suns went 33-85 straight up and 58-56-1 against the spread with Watson in command.
Then again, it’s not like there has been much talent for Watson to coach. Phoenix is on the treadmill of being two years away from being two years away from contending. The Suns rested starters Eric Bledsoe and Tyson Chandler regularly during the last 30 games of last season and Bledsoe tweeted out “I Dont wanna be here” late afternoon on Sunday.
Pick: Kings +1.5
Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets (-7.5, 211.5)
The Grizz lost the heart and soul of the team slogan grit ‘n’ grind when Zach Randolph and Tony Allen left as free agents and they’re down three players (Wayne Seldon, Ben McLemore and JaMychal Green) who figured to pick up major minutes with Randolph and Allen’s departures.
But Memphis is 2-0 SU and ATS two games into the new season and its bench is the chief reason despite the missing bodies. The Grizzlies second unit is outscoring opposing benches by 30 points a night – the top bench point differential in the league.
Houston traded most of its best role players to the Clippers to acquire Chris Paul and now the All-Star point guard is expected to miss the first month of the season.
Pick: Grizzlies +7.5
Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season record: 5-7
Total Streaks
*There are five teams with perfect over records so far this season: Detroit, Toronto, Washington, Milwaukee and Miami. All five teams play Monday night with the lowest total at 203.5 in the Hornets-Bucks game at Milwaukee.
*There are four teams remaining with perfect under records so far this season: Charlotte, Denver, Sacramento and Memphis. All four teams play Monday night with the highest total listed at 222.5 in the Wizards-Nuggets contest at Denver.
Injury To Note
The uncertain health of Dennis Schroder is the reason the Hawks-Heat line was off the board this morning. Schroder, Atlanta’s starting point guard and leading scorer, had to be helped off the court because of an ankle injury against the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. The German native is not expected to play at Miami on Monday.
Top Trends
*The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against the Heat.
*The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Suns.
*The Hornets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
*The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
Ref Assignment To Watch
The under is a combined 6-0 for the members of the crew calling the Sixers-Pistons game.
The over is a combined 5-0 for the members of the crew calling the Grizzlies-Rockets matchup.
Consensus
Bettors like the Spurs to cover against the visiting Raptors. Around 64 percent of consensus players have San Antonio covering as 3-point home chalk.
Monday's Best NBA Bet
By Sportsbetting.ag
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets
Odds - Sportsbetting.ag: Houston (-7.5); Total 213
Tonight we've got a battle in Houston between the two teams that have already knocked off the defending champs from Golden State this year. Houston squeaked out a 122-121 win over the Warriors on opening night, while Memphis was able to beat Golden State 111-101 on Saturday night behind Marc Gasol's 34-point effort. The new-look Grizzlies are now 2-0 SU and ATS on the year, but tonight's game is their first venture away from home, and dealing with a second championship favorite in three nights isn't exactly the best spot for them.
Houston is a perfect 3-0 SU themselves so far this year, but they have failed to cover the point spread once. That ATS loss came 24 hours after beating Golden State with a 105-100 win in Sacramento as 7-point favorites. That was unquestionably a bit of a letdown spot for Houston – especially after finding out Chris Paul would be on the shelf for a few weeks – but they were able to “survive and advance” with the W. Houston followed that performance up with a 16-point win over Dallas on Saturday night and would love to push their record to 4-0 SU before heading out on the road for five of their next six games.
The Grizzlies organization decided to go younger and more athletic this off-season as they try to embrace the offensive style today's NBA has now become. Memphis has put up 100+ in both games so far – a rarity for this organization in recent memory, but they've still showcased sound defensive fundamentals in both of their wins. They were up 17 on Golden State going into the 4th quarter on Saturday and it was that defense that was able to hold off any push from the Warriors coming down the stretch.
Not only is Memphis 2-0 ATS this year, but they are also a perfect 2-0 to the 'under' in 2017 and it will be interesting to see the meshing and growth of the Grizzlies desire to keep their defensive characteristics while also pushing the pace at times offensively. It will likely be the latter that becomes more important tonight against a Houston team who's on their own floor and loves to shoot in seven seconds or less.
However, this is simply a brutal spot for the Grizzlies after unleashing their best “shot” against the Warriors over the weekend. They at least got a day off in-between games in comparison to Houston's next contest after their best “shot” in beating Golden State, but the situation is nearly the same outside of that. There is little chance that Memphis brings the same sort of execution to the mix tonight, especially with this being their first trip to hostile territory this season. Even with it being this early in the season, a two-game stretch against Golden State and Houston is going to be tough to handle for any team, let alone play their best both times.
With the entire NBA knowing how big of a juggernaut Golden State is looking to be, I have no problem fading any team the next time out after beating – likely in upset fashion – the Warriors outright all year long. I did it last week in that Houston/Sacramento game that turned out to be a winner, and I'll be doing it again tonight with Memphis the ones being faded this time around.
Houston will not be taking this game lightly at all after watching the film of what Memphis did to the Warriors on Saturday, and with Houston more comfortable in their identity of being an uptempo team that loves to run teams into the ground, I don't believe Memphis can keep up for the full 48 minutes tonight.
If the Rockets don't already have a double-digit lead entering the 4th this evening, they'll look to pull away early on in that final frame for what should be a 10+ point victory.
Best Bet: Houston -7.5