NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, October 30th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Spurs won their last ten games with Boston (8-2 vs spread); they covered their last five visits to Beantown. Last three series games went over the total. San Antonio lost its last couple games, at Orlando/Indiana; 2-2 on the road. Four of their last five games stayed under. Celtics won their last four games after an 0-2 start (under 5-1)- they split their two home games.
Denver won/covered its last five games against the Knicks, winning last two visits to Manhattan by 8-5 points. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. Nuggets won last two games after a 1-3 start; under is 5-1 in their games. Denver split its four road games. New York won its last two games after an 0-3 start (under 4-1)— they beat Cleveland by 19 yesterday- they’re 1-1 at home.
Heat won three of last four games with Minnesota; road team won six of last nine series games. Timberwolves are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games. Minnesota split its first six games this season (over 5-0-1); they split their four home games. Miami is 2-3 to start season (over 3-2), losing last two home games by 6-17 points.
Hornets won three of last four games with Memphis; road team won four of last six series games. Charlotte covered their last three games in this building- under is 3-0 in last three series games. Hornets split their first six games (under 5-1), losing their two road games by 12-9 points. Grizzlies are 5-1 to start season (under 5-0-1), 4-0 at home, 3-1 vs spread.
Home side won seven of last eight Orlando-New Orleans games; under is 6-1 in last seven series games. Magic is 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Bourbon Street. Orlando won three of its last four games; they’re 1-2 as a road underdog. Four of six Magic games went over the total. New Orleans won three of last four games; over is 4-1 in their last five. Pelicans split their two home games, against Cleveland/Golden State.
Rockets won their last eight games with Philly; they beat Sixers at the buzzer Wednesday. Sixers are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits here. Over is 6-4 in last ten series games. 76ers won two of last three games after an 0-3 start (over 3-3); they’re 3-1 vs spread on road. Houston is 5-2 to start season; their last six games stayed under total. Rockets split their two home games.
Jazz won three of last four games with Dallas, but Mavericks covered four of last five; Dallas is 3-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Utah. Mavericks are 1-6 to start season, 0-2 on road, losing by 16-5 points (1-1 vs spread, under 2-0). Jazz is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road (under 5-0-1); they’re 3-0 vs spread as a home favorite, winning home games by 10-9-15 points.
Toronto won its last four games with Portland; four of last five series games went over the total. Raptors are 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Oregon. Toronto is 3-2 to start season, 1-2 on road; all three of their road games stayed under the total. Trailblazers are 4-2 to start season (under 4-2). Portland is 2-1 at home, 1-2 vs spread as a home favorite.
Golden State won its last ten games with the Clippers, covering four of last five; Warriors are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games played here. Last three series games went over total. Warriors are only 4-3 to start season (over 5-2), 2-1 on road, 1-2 as a road favorite. Clippers won/covered four of their first five games (under 5-0); they’re 2-1 at home, losing to Detroit by 8 Saturday.
Armadillosports.com
Red-hot Clippers host Warriors
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
Will the intensity of this California rivalry live on without the involvement of Chris Paul?
By certain metrics, Clippers vs. Warriors has been the best rivalry in the NBA in recent years. No matchup brought together more total pettiness on a single court than this one, and few teams hate each other as much as these two have. Of course, there's the old line about it not being a rivalry if one team always wins, and that has certainly been the case here: The Clippers have consistently been outclassed by the Warriors over the past several seasons. The game figures to have a different tone this year, however, as star Clippers PG Chris Paul is now a Houston Rocket. Paul is an all-time antagonist and his presence will be missed, but a rejuvenated Blake Griffin will likely be looking to take it to Draymond Green. Plus, CP3 replacement Patrick Beverley may be one of the few players in the league who is actually better at getting under opponents' skin than Paul is.
Blake Griffin looks like a new man. His past few seasons have been defined by injury, controversy or both, but he appears to have a renewed comfort as the unquestioned leader of this Clippers squad. He put up big stat lines in Los Angeles's first three wins—all blowouts—but really called the league to attention with 25 points, eight rebounds and five assists against Portland. He knocked down a three at the buzzer to win the game by a 104-103 score. It was a fitting way for Griffin to grab the victory, as his season thus far has been defined by a willingness to shoot from beyond the three-point line, and success in doing so. Beyond Griffin, the team's leading scorers have been new acquisitions. Beverley and SG Lou Williams, both sent over in the Paul trade, are effective from the perimeter, and Beverley makes life hell for opposing PGs. Williams figures to be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate once again. SF Danilo Gallinari has shot poorly, but figures to see his scoring numbers increase as he finds a rhythm. Through four games, C DeAndre Jordan was averaging a monstrous 18.3 RPG. After a rough start to the year, PG Austin Rivers scored 16 points in both games three and four.
Warriors haters everywhere rejoiced when the Dubs fell to 1-2 with a loss to Memphis, a game in which Steph Curry and Kevin Durant were ejected in the final moments. They should savor it, because there's a good chance, as always, that Golden State goes a long time without losing again. They rebounded strongly, beating Dallas by 30 points two nights later (a win that rookie PF Jordan Bell punctuated with an alley oop to himself). Curry and Durant scored 29 and 25 points in that game, each needing only 15 shots to get to their respective totals. Golden State got a much closer contest in their next one, going down to the wire in a 117-112 win over Toronto. Curry and Durant scored 30 and 29, respectively, each taking 20 shots and hitting key three-pointers in the fourth quarter. SG Klay Thompson scored over 20 points in each of those games, as well. He, along with PF Draymond Green, are elite defenders, but the Warriors D looked rusty in its early games this year. Draymond is already up to his old tricks, engaging in trash talk with Dallas rookie Dennis Smith Jr. Newly added SG Nick Young is the eighth man in the rotation, but takes the most shots outside of the Big Four.
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Game of the Night: Warriors at Clippers
This series between these two Pacific division rivals has been thoroughly dominated by Golden State the last few season with the Warriors winning 10 straight meetings. Last season, Golden State captured all four matchups by 10 points each, including a pair of convincing victories at Staples Center. The Warriors are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five visits to southern California, as Golden State embarks on a tough three-game road swing that extends to San Antonio on Thursday and Denver on Saturday.
Golden State (4-3 SU, 1-6 ATS) blew a double-digit second half in a 115-107 home setback to Detroit on Sunday as hefty 14-point favorites. The Warriors lost in spite of shooting 57% from the floor and their “Big Three” of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson combining for 84 points. The defending champions fell to 0-4 ATS at Oracle Arena this season, while allowing at least 112 points in all four home games. On the road, the Warriors own a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS record, while losing in its only opportunity with no rest at Memphis on October 21.
The Clippers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) began the season at 4-0, but were also bitten by the Pistons’ bug as Detroit went into Staples Center on Saturday and handed L.A. its first loss, 95-87. Doc Rivers’ squad was limited to 32 second half points after putting up 31 second quarter points. The Clippers were limited to 33% shooting from the floor, as Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari combined to shoot 9-of-34 for 32 points. L.A. owns a perfect 5-0 mark to the UNDER this season, while limiting four opponents to 95 points or fewer.
SILVER STRUGGLES
The Spurs (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) started their four-game road swing with a solid 17-point victory at Miami. However, San Antonio was blasted at Orlando on Friday and fell in the final seconds at Indiana on Sunday to drop two in a row following a 4-0 run to begin the season. The offense is taking a step back by putting up 87 against the Magic and 94 against the Pacers following a 117-point output at Miami. The Spurs head to Boston tonight looking for their 12th straight win in the series, which includes six consecutive victories at TD Garden.
The Celtics (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) are rolling of late by winning four straight following early losses to the Cavaliers and Bucks. Boston has covered in each of those victories, while the defense has stepped up by yielding 92 points or less in those four wins, resulting in four UNDERS. The last time the Celtics were favored over the Spurs came back in 2011 as Boston edged San Antonio, 105-103, but failed to cash as 2½-point chalk.
SCRATCHING AWAY
The leaders of the Southwest division don’t reside in Texas as the Grizzlies (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) have taken the early edge. What has helped Memphis was a pair of victories over Houston in the last week, including a 103-89 home triumph over the Rockets as 2½-point favorites. The Grizzlies have allowed over 100 points only twice in six games, resulting in a solid 5-0-1 mark to the UNDER. Memphis hosts Charlotte this evening, as the Grizzlies have lost three of the past four meetings with the Hornets.
MAGIC TRICK
Orlando (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) has pulled off several surprising victories this season by blasting Cleveland and San Antonio by double-digits. However, the Magic fell short in Sunday’s 120-113 setback at Charlotte as four-point underdogs to end Orlando’s three-game winning streak. Orlando heads to New Orleans with no rest as the Magic have won in their only back-to-back situation against the Cavaliers on October 21 following a loss at Brooklyn the night before. New Orleans has been on fire from an ATS perspective by covering four of its past five games, including a 123-101 blowout of Cleveland on Saturday.
ROAD BLAZIN’
The Raptors (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) continue their six-game road swing in Portland tonight as Toronto picked up its first victory on the trip against the Lakers on Friday. It’s been an easy formula to figure out the Raptors at least early on as they will win as a favorite (3-0 SU/ATS), but lose in the underdog role (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS). Toronto is listed as a short ‘dog tonight at the Moda Center against a Portland squad that has alternated wins and losses in its last five games after holding off Phoenix on Saturday night. The Raptors have swept the Blazers each of the past two seasons, while the last four matchups in Portland have been decided by seven points or less.
HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS
The Nuggets wrap up their swing through New York City after beating the Nets on Sunday as Denver heads to Madison Square Garden tonight. Denver has won and covered five consecutive meetings with New York, while the Knicks try to follow up last night’s impressive 114-95 triumph at Cleveland as 10½-point underdogs.
The Heat try to snap a two-game losing streak as Miami hosts Minnesota. The Wolves ended a two-game skid in Saturday’s home victory over the Thunder, but Minnesota is listed in the road favorite role for the first time this season. The Heat swept the Wolves last season, while both matchups sailed OVER the total.
The Rockets and 76ers hook up for the second time in a week after Houston knocked off Philadelphia at the buzzer last Wednesday, 105-104. The two teams meet in Houston tonight as the Rockets go for their ninth consecutive win over the 76ers since March 2014. Philadelphia has covered three straight games, including in Saturday’s two-point victory at Dallas.
The Mavericks seek only their second win of the season with a trip to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz. Dallas and Utah split four games last season with two of those contests going to overtime. The Mavs have covered four of the last five meetings with the Jazz, including two of the past three visits to Salt Lake.
NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Monday's Picks and Analysis
Covers.com
We’re 5-1 with our picks in the last three editions of Pick ‘n’ Roll. Let the good times roll.
Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks (+4, 209)
Did Denver figure out its offensive issues or did the team just benefit from playing against the one of the league’s worst defenses? The Nuggets put up a season-high 124 on the scoreboard on Sunday in a 13-point victory against the Brooklyn Nets, with seven Nuggets striking double figures in points.
The final score was more in line with what NBA experts were expecting for Denver this season after the team led the league in offensive efficiency in the second half of last season once Nicola Jokic was inserted into the starting lineup.
The Nugs are middle of the pack in offensive rating this season, averaging just 102.4 points per 100 possessions. Denver was one of the best Over bets a year ago when it played above the total in 50 of its 82 regular season games, but Sunday’s result was Denver’s first Over of the new campaign.
Expect Mike Malone’s men to push the pace against the Knicks on Monday and pad a lot of player stat lines.
Pick: Nuggets -4
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz (-7.5, 192)
The Utah Jazz are struggling to find a new go-to guy on offense and Under bettors are delighting in the results. The under is 5-0-1 in Utah’s six games this season and their leading scorer, Rodney Hood, is averaging only 15.3 points per game. Ricky Rubio, a pass-first point guard, is leading the team in shot attempts per game and is shooting just 41 percent from the field.
The Jazz are hoping promising youngster Donovan Mitchell can pick up more of the scoring load but he, like most rookies, struggles to bring it on a consistent basis.
Pick: Under 192
Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season record: 14-12
Total Trends
*The Under is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last four games.
*The Over is 4-0 in the Timberwolves’ last four road games.
*The Under is 10-1 in the Nuggets’ last 11 games overall.
*The Under is 6-0 in the Rockets’ last six games.
*The Under is 7-1 in the Hornets’ last eight games.
Injury to Watch
The Miami Heat are expected to be without center Hassan Whiteside for a fifth consecutive game. Whiteside, who averaged 17 points, 14.1 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game for the Heat last season, is dealing with a bone bruise on his knee. Miami is 2-2 straight up and 0-3-1 against the spread without its big man this season.
Ref to Watch
The Boston Celtics are 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games officiated by Gary Zielinski. He’s part of Ken Mauer’s crew working the Spurs-Celtics game tonight in Boston.
Today’s NBA referee assignments. More NBA referee statistics.
Top Trends
*The Warriors are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.
*The 76ers’ are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.
*The Heat are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Consensus
Seventy percent of players expect the Minnesota Timberwolves to cover as 3-point road favorites against the Miami Heat on Monday.