NBA Situational Sports Betting Tips October 23-29, 2017
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
The first full week of the NBA season is upon us. Honestly, it feels like the NBA has been playing for a couple of weeks already, even though things just started last Tuesday. In any event, the NBA schedule is notorious for giving us good situational betting spots. The addition of some more off days this season may put a dent in the number of advantageous betting spots, but they are still going to be there. We won’t see as many 4 in 5s or 5 in 7s, but we should still get some good chances to fade teams.
Speaking of which, let’s go ahead and do that for the week ending October 29:
Monday October 23
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat – The Hawks were already in for a long season, but a stretch of five road games in nine nights to open the year just seems like a few too many cherries on top. The road trip continues with the fourth game in six nights on Monday. That game is in Miami against the Heat and it comes on a back-to-back with travel from Brooklyn. At least the schedule makers were kind enough to make the Nets game a daytime matinee, but still. Miami has had three off days sandwiched around the home opener on Saturday against the Pacers. Atlanta has had two off days this season and has traveled for both of them. Miami is in a very good spot here.
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks – The Warriors embarrassed themselves on Saturday against Memphis. That was an emotional game for them, since the Grizzlies are the only team possessing the kryptonite to slow the Warriors. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant were both ejected and things were a mess. I think that leads to a lot of uncertainty for Monday’s game. Most will expect the Warriors to use it as a rallying point and blow out a vastly inferior team. The line should reflect that same sentiment. The Mavericks just played Houston on Saturday and fell to 0-3. In a season where moral victories may be hard to come by, scoring win #1 by knocking off the reigning champs would be a good footnote, right? I think we get a motivated Mavericks team. If we get a motivated Warriors team, this could be a hide the women and children game. If we don’t, well, Dallas might hang around. With the Warriors heading back home for three after this one, I’m not sure what we’ll get, so if the number looks too high, grab it.
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns – How awful have the Suns looked so far? Goodness gracious. This is a tough spot for the Kings, who are playing their third road game in four nights. The Suns are also playing their third game in four nights off a quick trip to Los Angeles, but they weren’t in town long enough to cause any damage. The Suns are -30.7 points per game so far. The Kings aren’t a very good team, but they have a lot of young and hungry players. I have to think the Suns get things figured out, but it’s tough. Also, can the Kings possibly be road chalk here? The line value will be on the Suns, if you can back a team that has looked as bad as it has.
Tuesday October 24
Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic – Your prototypical look-ahead spot is upcoming on Tuesday night. The Nets visit the Magic and then fly right back home to host the Cleveland Cavaliers. This is a not a game that the Nets will be invested in. It is a standalone trip down to Florida against a fellow bottom feeder. This spot is pretty simple. It will be Orlando or nothing. The Magic will be laying a responsible number here and should be able to cover it.
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics – The Boston Celtics need some feel-good moments. The start of this season has been about as much of a disaster as it could possibly be. The Knicks come to town on Tuesday and the Celtics are very well-rested. They have three days off before this game to work on some new things in practice and adjust to life without Gordon Hayward. The Knicks have two days off before and after this standalone road game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boston put it all together and thump somebody here to let out some frustrations.
Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves – I’m not sure what sort of effort we’ll get from the Pacers on Tuesday night. This is an odd spot, with a road game in Miami as the tail end of a back-to-back with long travel on Saturday and then two days off in the Twin Cities before taking on the Timberwolves. With the Oklahoma City Thunder and former friend Paul George on deck, I’m not sure how invested the Pacers will be. An up-and-down game like what Indiana has played to date certainly favors the better team, which is Minnesota. Will Tom Thibodeau let his team run and do what it does best? Will the commitment to improving on defense overshadow the urge to run? So far, it has, which could make for a contrast of styles on Tuesday night. I wouldn’t lay a big number with Minnesota, even with the spot in mind.
Wednesday October 25
Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets – The Nuggets play at something resembling sea level for the first time in the regular season on Wednesday as they kick off a stretch of four road games in six nights. The Hornets have nothing concerning from a situational aspect before or after this game. The Rockets come to town on Friday, but Charlotte has its own business to take care of. I would expect Charlotte to have the upper hand with Denver traveling to a place that they don’t normally go. Sometimes teams use that first road game as a rallying point to try and get the trip off on the right foot. In this case, though, Charlotte is the best team that the Nuggets will play on this East Coast swing and they should be fully aware of that.
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder – We expected a bit of a transition period for the Thunder. They’ll have three games in the books when this one tips off on Wednesday. With two solid days of practice in advance of this game, will we see OKC start to look more like the team that we expect to see when all is said and done? Obviously this is an interesting one with Paul George up against his former team. The Pacers are in a back-to-back with travel. Russell Westbrook has looked a little bit uncomfortable with his new teammates thus far. The Pacers might be the preferred side here.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons – I’m going to be very interested to see how Pistons games go at the new Little Caesars Arena. Crowd support should be better with a more centralized downtown location and a shiny new building. How will the shooting backdrop differ from the Palace of Auburn Hills? I’d probably take the first game out of the equation, so let’s see how it looks on Monday and then also on Wednesday. With the Pistons out west after this game, this should be a point of emphasis game for them. With the Timberwolves on a back-to-back and Thibodeau forcing his defensive ideology, I’m not sure Minnesota is going to cover on the road here. I’d look to back the Pistons, who should be a slight dog.
Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers – Anytime teams have a night off in Los Angeles, there are reasons to be concerned. This game is also a look-ahead spot to playing Golden State on Friday. The Lakers will be catching points at home and the Wizards have had some issues defensively at the outset against some lackluster offensive teams. This looks like a strong spot to back the host team.
Thursday October 26
Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies – The Rapid Revenge Theory is in play for the conclusion of this home-and-home between the Mavs and the Grizz. Dallas hosts Memphis on Wednesday and returns the favor by visiting the FedEx Forum on Thursday. These are always interesting, to see the line adjustments and the movement in the market. See how Wednesday’s game plays out and then bet accordingly. It is a standalone road game for Dallas, which isn’t great, but Memphis played Golden State on Saturday, Houston on Monday, and hosts Houston against on Saturday. Dallas is far less exciting when it comes to opponents.
New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings – The Pelicans wrap up a three-game road trip and look ahead to just their second home game of the young season on Saturday against Cleveland. Sacramento will be back in action after a couple of days off following a three games in four nights stretch. The Pelicans have gotten very little from guys not named Anthony Davis or DeMarcus Cousins. Hey, speaking of Cousins, he’ll be back in Sacramento here. Players take those emotional spots in different ways. My guess is that Cousins will get his, but he’s been getting his and it hasn’t really been enough. I think the Kings should be motivated to be back at home and to have a chance to go up against two good bigs with their young guys.
Friday October 27
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers – Playing the Spurs is a big deal. Playing the Warriors is a big deal. Playing the Lakers? Meh, not so much. Will the Raptors sleep on this game on Friday night? They’ll be a road favorite here and could have something to prove after losses to the Spurs and Warriors. If they can grab one of those games, though, the dynamics of this spot change a little bit. Also, we have another situation with a team having a night off in Los Angeles to hit the nightlife. This is the third game of a very long six-game trip for the Raptors and we should have spots along the way to play on or against them. This could very well be a spot to play against them, depending on how the first two games go.
Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks home opener will be on Friday night, a week and a half after the NBA season started. The Nuggets are in a bit of a tough spot with this road trip, but they do have a day off in between the game against the Hornets and the game against the Hawks. They are very clearly the better team. Old friend Paul Millsap should get a nice ovation from the Hawks crowd and he should be very comfortable in this setting. The Nuggets will be a small favorite and don’t be surprised if they ruin the party. This is a back-to-back with travel for the Hawks.
Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks – Borough bragging rights are on the line at MSG when the Nets visit the Knicks. This looks like a standalone road game, but we all know that it isn’t. If the Nets are coming off of a Cleveland upset, that would change how this spot looks, but I’d be all Brooklyn here. The Knicks have two days off prior to this one, but they’re just a terrible team. The Knicks can’t score and they’re not great defensively. The Nets have some guys that can make buckets, but they struggle to defend. This looks like the Nets or nothing.
Saturday October 28
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz – Jazz or nothing here. The Lakers hit the road for a standalone game after hosting Toronto on Friday night. Utah has two days off before this one. Say what you will about the post-Hayward Jazz, but they’re still going to defend. The Lakers don’t really defend a whole lot. Add in the altitude factor for the Lakers, who are playing just their second road game of the season, and Utah should be in great shape in this spot. You may pay for it a little bit, but the perception of Utah is down a little bit without Hayward, so this should be a manageable number below double digits.
Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies – The Grizzlies and Rockets have a Rapid Revenge Theory game here. The winner of Monday night’s game in Houston will be looking to avoid giving that game back on Saturday. This is a pretty rough spot for Houston with a back-to-back with travel off of playing Charlotte on Friday night. It is the third game in four nights for both teams and a little bit of a stylistic battle with Memphis’s hard-nosed defensive style up against the Mike D’Antoni up-tempo style. That might actually favor the Rockets, since it is more tiring to defend than it is to play offense, but tired legs mean short jump shots. See what sort of workload the Rockets have earlier in the week before deciding on this one.
Sunday October 29
Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings – The Wizards wrap up the California part of their four-game road trip on Sunday. It started with a game in altitude, continued with a day off in LA, continued with a game against the Warriors, and now what looks like a flat spot against the Kings before heading back home. Sacramento may lack polish, but they shouldn’t lack effort in the early part of the season. The spot certainly favors Sacramento here and catching points as a home dog will make them an attractive option on Sunday.
Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors – The Pistons are going to be getting a big number on Sunday at Oracle Arena. Deservedly so, of course, in what is a really weird spot. Detroit plays at STAPLES Center on Saturday against the Clippers and then returns back to STAPLES Center to take on the Lakers on Tuesday. The Warriors aren’t in a great spot here, though. The rivalry against the Clippers is less pronounced without Chris Paul, but Monday’s road game in LA is a bigger deal than this game. The Pistons might be able to take advantage of that and keep this one close. Golden State may not be all that motivated to blow out a marginal Pistons team after games against Toronto and Washington, two of the better Eastern Conference competitors, and with that Clippers game the next night. I think the Pistons will be a solid look on Sunday.
NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 2
By Al McMordie
Covers.com
We are back with our NBA Betting Roadmap Series. A year ago, in our first issue, I predicted the Warriors would not only win the NBA Championship (at -130 odds), but also go 16-0 in the Playoffs. Unfortunately (for me), the Warriors won their first 15 Playoff games, but couldn't win #16. And it would have been my biggest payoff ever, as I rolled over 4 Series Sweep wagers: GSW to sweep Portland (@ +100 odds), Utah (@ +150 odds), San Antonio (@ +350 odds) and Cleveland (@ +800 odds) for an effective payout of 179-1. Instead, I had to settle for just cashing my futures ticket on the Warriors at -130. This year, I'm coming right back with the Warriors at -195 odds to win the title. Let's take a look at the upcoming week's action.
Spread Watch
The World Champion Warriors have not exactly burst out of the gate this season. They did defeat New Orleans in their second game of the season, but that win was sandwiched between two upset losses -- at home vs. Houston, and on the road against Memphis. Even worse for Golden State bettors: Steve Kerr's crew is 0-3 against the spread. Of course, there's no doubt that the Warriors are (by far) the best team in the league, and arguably the best team in history. But since their 24-0 start to the 2015 season, they've been fairly pedestrian in Vegas, with a 95-86-3 ATS record, including 36-39-3 as a road favorite. This week, the Warriors will travel to Dallas on Monday, before coming back home for dates with Toronto, Washington and Detroit. The game in Dallas looks to be another trouble spot for the Warriors, as defending NBA Champs have struggled early in the season as road favorites. Since 1990, such teams are just 11-21 ATS within the season's first four games. I look for another ATS loss for the Dubs.
Total Watch
The more things change, the more they remain the same. Many thought the San Antonio Spurs would have a significant drop-off this season. After all, Tony Parker suffered a major injury in last year's playoffs, and will miss the first few months of this season. LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol struggled in the post-season after Kawhi Leonard went down, and Leonard remains sidelined this season with a (new) quad injury. And the Spurs lost key contributors Jonathon Simmons and Dewayne Dedmon to free agency. But, lo and behold, the Spurs are 2-0 and once again have the league's best defense (they ranked #1 in defensive efficiency the last two seasons), as they've given up just 88 ppg, with an adjusted efficiency rating of 88.32, even though they're missing Leonard, the league's best defensive player. This week, the Spurs will welcome the Raptors to the AT&T Center before hitting the road to face the Heat, Magic and Pacers. Friday's game in Orlando has all the makings of an 'under,' as each of the last five meetings between these two teams have gone 'under.' And the two games last season did so by a wide margin, as the game in San Antonio finished with 178 points, while the one in Orlando totaled 186, going 'under' by 16 and 21 points respectively.
Injury Watch
There have been several high-profile injuries to star players. Gordon Hayward, Chris Paul, Kawhi Leonard and Isaiah Thomas are all currently on the shelf for varying lengths of time. But each of their respective teams have enough talent to soldier on. One injury, though, which could have much more of a short-term impact involves the Miami Heat's center, Hassan Whiteside. He's currently out with a bone bruise on his left knee, and is listed as "day-to-day." Last year, he averaged 17 points and 14.1 rebounds in 32.6 minutes per game, and was invaluable for the Heat. He also got this season off to a rip-roaring start, when he scored 26 and pulled down 26 boards in Miami's season opener vs. Orlando. Even worse for Miami: Dion Waiters is playing, but a bit banged-up, as he tweaked his left ankle in the game vs. Orlando, as well. The Heat struggled without Whiteside in their lineup last season. He missed five games, and Miami was 2-3 in those games, with losses by 9+ points to some of the league's worst teams (Suns, Lakers, Pistons). This week, Miami will host Atlanta, San Antonio and Boston. If there is a silver lining, it's that the Hawks, Spurs and Celtics are also dealing with the absence of key players. The Hawks lost Dennis Schroder to an ankle injury on Sunday, while the Spurs and Celtics have had much more time to adjust to their player rotations. Miami's game on Wednesday vs. San Antonio would be the one I would target to play against the Heat, should Whiteside be in street clothes. San Antone has a lot of size inside, with LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, and Joffrey Lauvergne. And the Spurs have also won nine straight in the series (8-1 ATS).
Schedule Watch
There are six undefeated teams in the NBA, and none more surprising than the Memphis Grizzlies, who are projected to finish with 38 wins, and miss the Playoffs. The Grizzlies opened the season with a 12-point win vs. New Orleans, and followed that up with an impressive, double-digit upset win over the Warriors. Of course, Memphis also benefited from the fact that both of their games have been at home. This week, Memphis has leave Beale Street for the first time, and will play road games at Houston and Dallas, before returning home to play re-matches against those same two teams. Monday's game vs. the Rockets looks to be a great spot to fade the Grizzlies, as undefeated teams are just 1-14 straight-up and 2-13 ATS since 2009 in their first road game, if they are off an upset win, including 0-8 ATS when getting 8 or less points.
NBA Betting Sheet Oct 24-26
By Cole Ryan
Bangthebook.com
The National Basketball Association has tipped off yet another season. For the professional basketball handicapper it presents an opportunity to win big betting on basketball, nearly every day of the week. As sports betting fans that love to bet on every sport we realize that this is the busiest time of the season.
After all this is the time of year when you can bet on the World Series, NBA, college football, the NHL and of course the NFL. That is not even considering other popular sports like soccer. If you like to bet on any or all of these sports then it can be difficult to handicap every even without stretching yourself too thin. When a handicapper does not do sufficient research on the games they bet on it usually ends up in a losing streak that can break even the best of bettors.
Since we know that this is a dilemma that many sports bettors face we set out to make an NBA Betting Sheet. Our NBA betting sheet will provide the vital information that you need to know before betting on basketball. This will include, but not be limited to the best information on teams in the league. Everything from betting trends, breaking news, injuries and information that you need to bang the book when betting on basketball.
Phoenix Suns: Say Bye Bye to Bledsoe
The Phoenix Suns are one of the worst teams in the league and they are about to get rid of one of their best players. Guard Eric Bledsoe took to Twitter to post the following “I Dont want to be here”. You can’t make it any clearer than that. It is not a surprise that he is not happy. The Suns have been torched all season long as they two losses that eclipsed a 40 point differential. Bledsoe has averaged 15 this season in just three games, but has always been a big trade target for other teams. The team held him out in the Monday night game against the Kings. Bledsoe is important to the team. That showed when it was announced he was sitting out because the lines moved five points in favor of the Kings. The Suns will not get better with a trade right away, but another team could really do well by adding Bledsoe.
Wizards Out West
The Washington Wizards have started off playing some very good basketball. They will make the playoffs and can even threaten the Cavs to win the East if they are healthy during the playoffs. Although they had failed to lose a game, they were winless against the spread at 0-2 heading into Monday night. Monday night started off a west coast road trip for the Wizards. The Wizards played the Nuggets on Monday night. They follow that up with a game in LA against the Lakers, and then wrap up the trip with games against the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings. They are going to play four games in seven days which is not as bad as it could be, but the Wizards have a history of struggling on the west coast. The Wizards are 0-4 against the spread in the last four road games and 1-5 ATS in the last six games against a team from the Western Conference. The Wizards could be in for a rough road trip out West.
Grizzlies Looking Great But Don’t Bite
When the Grizzlies entered the season, it was assured that they would struggle this season. It would be difficult to compete in the West and they lost their gritty leader in Zach Randolph and their defensive stalwart in Tony Allen. The Grizzlies may not have a lot of stars but they do have depth. Although they have only played a few games the Grizzlies have the best bench point differential in the league. To make it even more impressive, they beat two quality opponents in the Pelicans and the Warriors. Don’t overreact to this start. The Grizzlies may be a good squad but they will be overvalued this week when they hit the hard wood. The play back-back games against the Dallas Mavericks in a home and home series. Since Dallas is so bad early in the season, the line will be over inflated two wards the Grizzlies. It does not mean this is a game(s) to bet against the Grizzlies, but beware before backing the Grizzlies. When everyone starts buying into a basketball team is usually when they fall apart.