Saturday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-9, 196)
Miami heads into Saturday’s date with the Pacers just 1.5 games back of the Eastern Conference-leading Chicago Bulls and while there are lots of games left in the regular season, they’re already keeping a close eye on the standings.
Miami has won 11 of its last 13 after downing Atlanta 89-86 on Wednesday. LeBron James posted 31 points and 11 rebounds, but couldn’t do enough to help the Heat cash as 12.5-point favorites.
"At this point of the year, you start looking at tiebreakers," forward Shane Battier told reporters. "That's a big issue when it comes to the playoffs, and so, obviously, you want to win the season series against the teams you may play in the playoffs.”
The Heat have covered just once over the last four games and are now 20-19 against the spread this season. They’ll probably continue to see fat lines down the stretch, but you have to wonder about their value as the season wears on.
That said, after a couple of days off, Miami should be able to beat up on the Pacers.
Pick: Heat
Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns (2, 193)
Phoenix is another team that knows how important wins are right now.
With a big win over Dallas, a team the Suns hadn’t beaten in nine tries, they at least stayed within view of the eighth and final playoff spot in the West.
"We couldn't lose both of these (Oklahoma City and Dallas) and stay in the playoff picture," Steve Nash told reporters. "It's an early crunch time for us. We've got to keep crawling back to that eight-nine-ten spots and try to give ourselves a chance to sneak in there."
The next week or so will probably play a huge role in whether Nash stays with the team too. He has been mentioned in trade rumors for much of the season, but if Phoenix thinks it has a shot at the playoffs, the club will need the veteran point guard.
We like Phoenix to ride the momentum of its big win over Dallas into this one.
Pick: Suns
PORTLAND (19 - 21) at WASHINGTON (9 - 29) - 3/10/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 42-61 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 90-127 ATS (-49.7 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 89-120 ATS (-43.0 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORONTO (13 - 26) at DETROIT (14 - 26) - 3/10/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-3 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIANA (23 - 14) at MIAMI (30 - 9) - 3/10/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
MIAMI is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW ORLEANS (9 - 31) at MINNESOTA (21 - 20) - 3/10/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 5-3 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSTON (21 - 19) at NEW JERSEY (14 - 27) - 3/10/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 239-186 ATS (+34.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 76-40 ATS (+32.0 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 83-42 ATS (+36.8 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
HOUSTON is 50-20 ATS (+28.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
NEW JERSEY is 88-115 ATS (-38.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 40-57 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTAH (19 - 20) at CHICAGO (33 - 9) - 3/10/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 81-58 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHARLOTTE (5 - 33) at OKLAHOMA CITY (31 - 9) - 3/10/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 124-100 ATS (+14.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in March games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MEMPHIS (23 - 15) at PHOENIX (18 - 21) - 3/10/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 79-52 ATS (+21.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 5-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 4-4 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DALLAS (23 - 19) at GOLDEN STATE (15 - 21) - 3/10/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 82-60 ATS (+16.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 4-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND vs. WASHINGTON
Portland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games when playing at home against Portland
INDIANA vs. MIAMI
Indiana is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
TORONTO vs. DETROIT
Toronto is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
HOUSTON vs. NEW JERSEY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games on the road
New Jersey is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing Houston
NEW ORLEANS vs. MINNESOTA
New Orleans is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
CHARLOTTE vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Charlotte is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Charlotte is 1-16 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing Charlotte
UTAH vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games on the road
Utah is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Utah
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Utah
MEMPHIS vs. PHOENIX
Memphis is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing Phoenix
Memphis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Phoenix's last 8 games when playing at home against Memphis
DALLAS vs. GOLDEN STATE
Dallas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Dallas
PORTLAND at WASHINGTON
PORTLAND: 14-6 ATS off ATS loss
WASHINGTON: 4-21 ATS off home win
TORONTO at DETROIT
TORONTO: 12-3 ATS L15 games
DETROIT: 13-4 ATS L17 games
INDIANA at MIAMI
INDIANA: 12-4 Under when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points
MIAMI: 0-8 ATS at home w/ 2 days rest
NEW ORLEANS at MINNESOTA,
NEW ORLEANS: 30-18 ATS as road underdog
MINNESOTA: 21-35 ATS off an Over
HOUSTON at NEW JERSEY
HOUSTON: 21-7 ATS Away off SU loss as road favorite
NEW JERSEY: 0-8 ATS at home off ATS win
UTAH at CHICAGO
UTAH: 8-18 ATS off BB road games
CHICAGO: 27-15 ATS vs. non-conference
CHARLOTTE at OKLAHOMA CITY
CHARLOTTE: 0-7 ATS Away if home dog last game
OKLAHOMA CITY: 20-8 ATS off home loss
MEMPHIS at PHOENIX
MEMPHIS: 28-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
PHOENIX: 14-3 Under when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points
DALLAS at GOLDEN STATE
DALLAS: 4-16 ATS playing 4th time in 5 days
GOLDEN STATE: 1-9 ATS off double digit home loss
Hoop Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Bobcats are 10-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since February 13, 2005 on the road after a home loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Raptors are 0-11-1 OU (-11.4 ppg) since December 05, 2010 after a game in which they outshot their opponent by at least 10 percent.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Pacers are 11-0-1 ATS (13.2 ppg) since February 27, 2010 with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Danny Granger played more than 40 minutes.
CHOICE TREND:
The Jazz are 0-11 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since December 22, 2010 when they are playing in at least their third straight road game.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Trailblazers are 0-11 OU (-13.3 ppg) since February 13, 2005 after a game on the road in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.
Hot Teams
-- Pistons won five of their last six home games. Toronto is 13-2-1 vs spread in its last sixteen games.
-- Minnesota won five of its last six home games.
-- Bulls won eight of their last nine games.
-- Thunder won nine of last 11 games, covered one of last four.
-- Phoenix won/covered six of its last seven home games. Grizzlies won their last five games (4-1 vs spread).
Cold Teams
-- Washington covered two of last eight home games. Trailblazers lost five of their last six games.
-- Pacers lost last two games, by 20-5 points; they're 2-4 vs spread in last six road games. Miami lost three of its last four games.
-- Hornets lost last four games (1-3 vs spread).
-- Nets lost six of their last seven home games. Rockets lost last five games, are 0-5 vs spread in last five on road.
-- Jazz lost seven of its last nine road games.
-- Bobcats are 8-12 as road underdogs this year, 0-3 in last three tries.
-- Mavericks lost their last six road games (1-5 vs spread). Golden State lost four of its last six games.
Wear-and-Tear
-- Blazers: 3rd game/4 nites. Wizards: Had last two nites off.
-- Raptors: Had last two nites off. Pistons: 2nd nite in row, after 2 off.
-- Pacers: Had last three nites off. Heat: Had last two nites off.
-- Hornets: 6th game/9 nites. T'wolves: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Rockets: Had last two nites off. Nets: 4th game/5 nites.
-- Jazz: 6th game/9 nites. Bulls: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Bobcats: 6th game/9 nites. Thunder: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Grizzlies: Had last two nites off. Suns: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Mavericks: 3rd nite in row, 7th/10 nites. Warriors: Had last two off.
Totals
-- Four of last five Portland games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Toronto road games stayed under total.
-- Over is 8-4 in Indiana's last twelve road games.
-- Seven of last nine New Orleans games went over the total.
-- Last four Houston games went over the total.
-- Last four Utah games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-4 in Charlotte's last fourteen road games.
-- Seven of last nine Memphis games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Portland is 2-5 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Detroit is 4-2 at home if it played night before.
-- Minnesota is 2-3 vs spread if it lost the night before.
-- Nets are 2-6 vs spread at home if they played night before.
-- Jazz are 2-5 vs spread if they lost the night before.
-- Thunder is 5-7-1 vs spread if they played nite before. Charlotte is 4-7 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Mavericks are 3-4 on road if they played night before.