Saturday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (-4.5, 210.5)
The recent head-to-head history does not bode well for Phoenix heading into Saturday's home contest against Denver. The Nuggets have won five in a row over the Suns and are 4-0-1 ATS in that span. George Karl's crew has won twice this season at home; 109-92 on February 14 and 105-99 on April 6.
Kenneth Faried, "the Manimal," averaged 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in those two games. He has been hot of late, too, with double-doubles in three of his last six outings and double-digit scoring outputs in 12 of his last 18 games. He went for 27 and 17 in an April 9 blowout of Golden State.
The Nuggets are coming off a 104-98 loss to the Clippers on Wednesday but they have not dropped back-to-back contests since March 25. The team is in good shape to snag home-court advantage in a first-round series with a few more wins down the stretch.
"I think everything is in a good scenario even though there is a nervousness and a stress to it," Karl told the Denver Post. "But it is a privilege to be stressed. It's a privilege to be in the battle to compete at the highest level of sport. We've worked very hard to get here and now it's our opportunity to go to the next step."
Pick: Nuggets
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls (N/A)
Derrick Rose has missed three consecutive games for the Bulls and he is listed as doubtful for Saturday's home showdown against Dallas. Chicago is 1-2 in those contests (1-2 ATS) and 1-3 ATS in its last four overall.
Dallas won't be missing any players due to injury, but playing time will be something to think about. They clinched a playoff spot on Thursday and are now simply jostling for seeding position, Still, head coach Rick Carlisle insists on 100 percent effort.
"We want to be playing good basketball heading into the playoffs," Carlisle told the Dallas Morning News. "We'll watch some minutes, but the emphasis is going to be on hard play, continuing to trend the right way."
The Mavericks especially don't want Dirk Nowitzki slowing down right now. The big man has heated up after a lackluster start to the season, and the last two games were no exception. Dirk dropped 40 on Utah in an overtime loss on Monday before scoring 35 in a 117-110 win over Houston on Wednesday.
Pick: Mavericks
DENVER (34 - 28) at PHOENIX (33 - 30) - 4/21/2012, 5:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 67-48 ATS (+14.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
PHOENIX is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
PHOENIX is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 57-40 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 6-4 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHILADELPHIA (32 - 30) at INDIANA (41 - 22) - 4/21/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-4 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 6-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WASHINGTON (16 - 46) at MIAMI (45 - 17) - 4/21/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-4 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DALLAS (36 - 28) at CHICAGO (47 - 16) - 4/21/2012, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PORTLAND (28 - 35) at MEMPHIS (38 - 25) - 4/21/2012, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 5-3 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-3 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GOLDEN STATE (22 - 40) at HOUSTON (32 - 31) - 4/21/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 6-3 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW JERSEY (22 - 41) at MILWAUKEE (29 - 33) - 4/21/2012, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 9-0 against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 9-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ORLANDO (36 - 26) at UTAH (33 - 30) - 4/21/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 102-73 ATS (+21.7 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 4-0 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 3-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Phoenix is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
PHILADELPHIA vs. INDIANA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Indiana
Philadelphia is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indiana's last 13 games
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
WASHINGTON vs. MIAMI
Washington is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games at home
PORTLAND vs. MEMPHIS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Portland's last 7 games on the road
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Memphis's last 16 games
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
GOLDEN STATE vs. HOUSTON
Golden State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Golden State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Golden State
DALLAS vs. CHICAGO
Dallas is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Chicago's last 16 games when playing at home against Dallas
Chicago is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Dallas
NEW JERSEY vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Jersey's last 12 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Jersey
ORLANDO vs. UTAH
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Orlando's last 13 games
Orlando is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Utah is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Orlando
Denver at Phoenix
Denver: 13-3 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points
Phoenix: 11-30 ATS w/ double revenge
Philadelphia at Indiana
Philadelphia: 12-3 Under if the total is between 190 and 199.5
Indiana: 16-29 ATS off home win
Washington at Miami
Washington: 1-7 ATS off BB ATS wins
Miami: 137-95 Under off win by 10+ at home
Dallas at Chicago
Dallas: 8-0 Under if they made 95% of their FT's or better
Chicago: 40-19 ATS off BB road games
Portland at Memphis
Portland: 8-1 ATS off BB losses by 10+
Memphis: 10-1 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less
Golden State at Houston
Golden State: 13-0 ATS Away off BB losses
Houston: 7-0 Over off 4+ ATS losses
New Jersey at Milwaukee
New Jersey: 5-1 Over vs. division loss
Milwaukee: 36-10 ATS vs. Atlantic Division
Orlando at Utah
Orlando: 0-4 ATS vs. Utah
Utah: 20-10 Under if the total is between 190 and 199.5
Hoop Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Wizards are 0-13 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since November 28, 2009 after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Pacers are 0-16-1 OU (-12.2 ppg) since January 24, 2003 as a home favorite with at least one day of rest after a win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Wizards are 0-11 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since December 05, 2010 on the road after a win at home in which John Wall was not the Wizards’ high scorer.
CHOICE TREND:
The Magic are 0-12 OU (-8.2 ppg) since January 29, 2006 off a loss of four points or fewer as a dog in which they trailed by double digits.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Pacers are 11-0-2 ATS (5.0 ppg) since February 09, 2008 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.
The Rockets are 0-10 OU (-13.7 ppg) since November 19, 2003 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a game in which they attmpted at least 10 more three pointers than their season-to-date average.
The Wizards are 0-12-2 OU (-11.5 ppg) since April 13, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.