Saturday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers (N/A)
When the Clippers downed the Kings on Thursday, DeMarcus Cousins and Blake Griffin were close to throwing punches.
After Cousins fouled out, he reportedly challenged Griffin to meet him in the tunnel to settle the score. That didn’t materialize, but it’s clear this one could be a spirited affair.
"He's babied," Cousins told SI.com about Griffin. "He's the poster child of the league. He sells tickets, but he's babied. Bottom line. He gets away with [everything]. He taunts players. Nothing is done. He's babied."
Babied or not, Griffin is averaging 20.7 points 10.9 rebounds and three assists per game this season, while the Clippers have won seven of their last eight, covering six times over that stretch.
Meanwhile, Cousins was fined $25,000 for his tirade about Griffin and the referees. Sacramento has cashed just twice over the last nine games.
Pick: Clippers
Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5, 180)
This Dwight Howard-Stan Van Gundy fiasco just isn’t going away.
Word is that Van Gundy will be manning the bench for Saturday’s game, but at this point anything could happen.
It’s pretty clear Howard has no interest in playing for Van Gundy after he managed just eight points and eight rebounds in 39 minutes of work during Thursday’s loss to New York.
Still, Howard insists he hasn’t requested Van Gundy be fired, pointing the finger at the media.
"We're capable of getting through anything," Howard told reporters. "Right now, the leader is being attacked from all angles, and it's my job to stay strong for the team and not allow anything to break my spirit or break who I am as a person or a player. And the rest of the guys will follow."
We’re not buying it.
Pick: 76ers
ATLANTA (32 - 23) at CHARLOTTE (7 - 45) - 4/7/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 36-58 ATS (-27.8 Units) in road games on Saturday games since 1996.
ATLANTA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 19-30 ATS (-14.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHARLOTTE is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
CHARLOTTE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 6-5 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-4 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BOSTON (30 - 24) at INDIANA (33 - 21) - 4/7/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 5-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ORLANDO (32 - 23) at PHILADELPHIA (29 - 25) - 4/7/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 64-78 ATS (-21.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 24-38 ATS (-17.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 77-63 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 101-73 ATS (+20.7 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 8-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 8-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (25 - 31) at NEW ORLEANS (14 - 40) - 4/7/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 51-37 ATS (+10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in home games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-31 ATS (-15.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-3 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 6-3 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DALLAS (31 - 24) at MEMPHIS (30 - 23) - 4/7/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 84-62 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 43-28 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 88-67 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 102-73 ATS (+21.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents since 1996.
DALLAS is 56-32 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 6-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 5-5 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PORTLAND (26 - 29) at MILWAUKEE (26 - 28) - 4/7/2012, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 121-99 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 60-41 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 139-177 ATS (-55.7 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 3-2 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA LAKERS (35 - 20) at PHOENIX (28 - 26) - 4/7/2012, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 22-32 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games this season.
LA LAKERS are 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA LAKERS are 47-65 ATS (-24.5 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) second half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 9-8 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 12-5 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SACRAMENTO (19 - 36) at LA CLIPPERS (33 - 22) - 4/7/2012, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-4 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 6-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (29 - 25) at GOLDEN STATE (21 - 32) - 4/7/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games this season.
DENVER is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 5-3 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 6-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON vs. INDIANA
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing Indiana
Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing Boston
ORLANDO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Orlando is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Philadelphia's last 23 games at home
MINNESOTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Minnesota is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
New Orleans is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Minnesota
DALLAS vs. MEMPHIS
Dallas is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Dallas is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
ATLANTA vs. CHARLOTTE
Atlanta is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Atlanta is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Charlotte is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
PORTLAND vs. MILWAUKEE
Portland is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Portland's last 17 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Milwaukee's last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 17 games when playing Portland
LA LAKERS vs. PHOENIX
LA Lakers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Phoenix
LA Lakers are 8-17 SU in their last 25 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Phoenix is 17-8 SU in their last 25 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
DENVER vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Golden State
Denver is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Golden State's last 9 games when playing Denver
Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
SACRAMENTO vs. LA CLIPPERS
Sacramento is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Sacramento's last 13 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento
LA Clippers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Hoop Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Magic are 18-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since February 26, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Warriors are 11-0 OU (11.7 ppg) since March 26, 2007 as a home dog with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Trailblazers are 10-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since March 19, 2009 with no rest after a win on the road in which Lamarcus Aldridge was not the Trailblazers’ high scorer.
CHOICE TREND:
The 76ers are 12-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since October 29, 2010 at home after a loss in which Thaddeus Young took fewer than 10 shots.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Magic are 0-16 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since March 03, 2002 after a loss in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
The Suns are 15-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since January 15, 2007 after winning the previous matchup in which Steve Nash shot worse than 33% from the field.
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Sacramento Kings at L.A. Clippers
L.A. (33-22, 28-27 ATS) clipping Kings (19-36, 26-29 ATS) 93-85 Thursday night in Sacramento have conditions on their side to make it two in-a-row when the Pacific Division rivals complete this home-home series at the Staples Center. Clippers ridding a 7-1 (6-2 ATS) stretch averaging 99.9 points/game on 48.9% shooting have won five of six meetings with Sacramento (4-1-1 ATS) and have won six of eight encounters in their own back yard (6-2 ATS). Chris Paul / Blake Griffin duo on a tear averaging a combined 37.9 PPG over the past eight should have their way vs Kings who struggle on the defensive end allowing a whopping 104.5 per contest on the road. The Clippers cashing 9-of-12 tickets vs division foes busting the century mark in scoring and taking the loot in 17-of-23 scoring =>100 points this season are worth a second look.
Insider the Paint - Saturday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Some might agree or disagree, but I’ve always said that handicapping the Association on Saturday can be difficult because you never know who is going to show up on the last day of the week. Plus, tomorrow is Easter which could have some teams going through the motions before the holiday.
Fortunately, we have nine opportunities on the hardwood tonight, including a televised double-header on ESPN.
Let’s break them down!
Double-Header
Orlando at Philadelphia: The drama in the Magic Kingdom continues to heat up and it’s not helping Orlando, who has dropped five straight both straight up and against the spread. Along with the soap opera antics, the Magic have been hit by the injury bug. Ryan Anderson (ankle) and Hedo Turkoglu (face) are both ‘out’ for tonight. Philadelphia has gone 9-11 in the second-half and it enters this matchup off back-to-back losses, which includes an embarrassing 21-point (78-99) home setback to Toronto on Wednesday. Doug Collins’ team has a real mediocre offense and the once proven defense has become suspect. The home team has won the two meetings this season, but Orlando has covered four straight. The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 in the last six encounters between the pair.
Denver at Golden State: Saturday’s affair will be the first of a home-and-home set between the Nuggets and Warriors, with second battle taking place in Denver on Monday. Golden State is listed as a home underdog (+3.5) tonight and deservingly so when you look at the Nuggets road record (14-13 SU, 18-9 ATS). However, the Warriors have covered four straight (1-3 SU) games, all on the road too. VegasInsider.com’s hottest NBA handicapper Antony Dinero believes talent is the key factor when looking at this matchup. “Golden State continues to play over its head for Mark Jackson, but there's no question that the Warriors are executing with inferior talent at the moment. That's going to catch up to them against George Karl team that is playing great basketball of late, led by guards Ty Lawson, Andre Miller and emerging standout Arron Afflalo. The Warriors’ David Lee is playing hurt and will see a lot of big bodies thrown at him, starting with dynamic rookie Kenneth Faried. I expect the Nuggets to wear the Warriors out with their depth here,” explained Dinero. Make a note that Golden State did beat Denver 109-101 on Feb. 9 as a six-point road underdog. The ‘under’ (211.5) barely cashed and total players saw the opener drop two points to 208. Denver has seen the ‘under’ cash in four of its last five, while Golden State has seen the ‘under’ cash in its last three.
We meet again!
Three games on the card tonight where teams will be playing for the second time this week.
Atlanta at Charlotte: Atlanta has won and covered all three meetings against Charlotte this season, including a 120-93 romp on Wednesday as a 13-point home favorite. The Hawks are giving 8½-points to the Bobcats on the road in this spot. Both teams played last night and Atlanta (see below) has been great on zero days rest. It’s tough to justify a play on Charlotte considering it’s dropped 10 straight games but it has covered four of the last six.
Dallas at Memphis: The Grizzlies are listed as four-point favorites over the Mavericks in what appears to be an impossible game to handicap. Dallas beat Memphis 95-85 on Wednesday as a six-point home favorite but that was due to the Grizzlies collapsing in the fourth quarter. It was also the third game in three nights for Memphis, so fatigue was expected. It was also expected last night and Memphis embarrassed Miami 97-82 as a 7 ½-point road underdog. So now the Grizzlies are playing their fifth game in six nights when they meet the Mavs. You would believe that Memphis is out of gas, but you also realize that Dallas played last night too, losing to Portland (97-99) in overtime too. Perhaps the total (183) is the better look! Memphis has seen the ‘under’ cash in seven straight and three of the last four in this series have been ‘under’ tickets too.
Sacramento at L.A. Clippers: Los Angeles beat Sacramento on the road by eight points (93-85) on Thursday and that’s the point-spread for tonight’s second go around at Staples Center. DeMarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans get all the press in Sacramento but shooting guard Marcus Thornton has been great for the club this year. Unfortunately the “Bayou Bomber” missed the last two games, both losses, and he’s ‘doubtful’ for tonight too. This is a must-win spot for the Clippers, who can trim the Lakers’ lead in the Pacific with a win here, plus Los Angeles has a key three-game roadie on deck.
Back-to-Back Spots
Eleven teams will be playing on zero days rest tonight. We have their records listed below with some quick betting notes too.
Atlanta: 10-7 SU, 12-4 ATS
Charlotte: 2-15 SU, 6-11 ATS
That record dips to 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS when playing another team on no rest. Is Atlanta too easy here? Pass for me.
Indiana: 11-9 SU, 9-11 ATS
Even though the Pacers have won and covered four straight, this could be the letdown game. You just beat Oklahoma City (103-98) last night and now you face Boston, who is coming off back-to-back tough losses to San Antonio (86-87) and Chicago (86-93).
New Orleans: 3-12 SU, 8-7 ATS
Portland: 5-13 SU, 8-10 ATS
The Trail Blazers have been more up-tempo lately, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 in the last six. Also, Portland has seen the ‘over’ go 12-6 (67%) when playing on no rest. Tonight’s total has jumped from 204 to 206, but it has something to with the run ‘n gun Bucks too.
Milwaukee: 6-12 SU, 6-12 ATS
The Bucks are 1-6 both SU and ATS when playing another team on no rest, in this case Portland. Plus, the ‘over’ has posted a 13-4 mark for Milwaukee in back-to-back situations. Is the Blazers and the ‘over’ parlay too easy?
Memphis: 11-4 SU, 10-5 ATS
Despite the good record, make a note that the Grizzlies are 0-2 both SU and ATS in their last two on zero days rest.
L.A. Lakers: 9-8 SU, 7-10 ATS
Phoenix: 10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS
Denver: 7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS
Golden State: 7-8 SU, 11-4 ATS
The ‘under’ has gone 10-5 for Golden State in the second game of a back-to-back set.
Atlanta at Charlotte
Atlanta: 18-6 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points
Charlotte: 5-15 ATS at home off 3+ losses
Boston at Indiana
Boston: 2-11 ATS away off an ATS loss
Indiana: 20-8 Over playing with revenge
Orlando at Philadelphia
Orlando: 8-2 ATS vs. Philadelphia
Philadelphia: 8-20 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points
Minnesota at New Orleans
Minnesota: 3-14 ATS in April
New Orleans: 13-3 Under at home after playing 3+ games as an underdog
Dallas at Memphis
Dallas: 35-19 Under after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Memphis: 20-8 ATS off an outright win as an underdog
Portland at Milwaukee
Portland: 0-7 ATS off BB ATS wins
Milwaukee: 8-1 ATS off a win by 6 points or less
LA Lakers at Phoenix
LA Lakers: 4-15 ATS off a home loss
Phoenix: 18-8 Under with a total of 190 to 199.5 points
Sacramento at LA Clippers
Sacramento: 9-18 ATS playing 8+ games in 14 days
LA Clippers: 8-1 ATS with a total of 200+ points
Denver at Golden State
Denver: 18-9 ATS in road games
Golden State: 11-22 ATS off BB ATS wins
Hot Teams
-- Pacers won four of their last five games.
-- Nets covered five of last seven games, won two of last three at home.
-- Atlanta won five of its last six home games. Pistons won five of their last six games overall.
-- Miami won its last six home games (3-3 vs spread).
-- Raptors won four of their last five games.
-- San Antonio won its last nine games (6-2-1 vs spread). Hornets are 12-4 against spread in their last 16 road games.
-- Bucks won four of last five games, but covered just one of last five at home.
-- Mavericks won seven of their last nine home games (4-5 vs spread).
-- Suns won/covered five of their last seven road games.
-- Warriors covered nine of their last ten road games.
-- Lakers won last four games at Staples (1-9 vs spread in last ten).
Cold Teams
-- Thunder lost last two games, scoring 88-93 points.
-- Washington lost its last four games, but is 6-3 vs spread in its last nine road games.
-- Cavaliers lost last nine games, covered one of last eight.
-- Bobcats lost ten of their last eleven road games (4-7 vs spread).
-- Portland lost nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Nuggets are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine home games.
-- Utah lost its last five games, three of last four by 5 or less points.
-- Rockets covered only three of last dozen road games.
Wear-and-Tear
-- Thunder: 3rd game/4 nites. Pacers: 7th game/10 nites.
-- Wizards: 7th game/9 nites. Nets: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Pistons: 3rd game/4 nites. Hawks: 2nd game/6 nites.
-- Grizzlies: 6th game/8 nites. Heat: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Cavaliers: 3rd game/4 nites. Raptors: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Hornets: 2nd game/5 nites. Spurs: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Bobcats: 3rd game/4 nites. Bucks: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Blazers: 6th game/9 nites. Mavericks: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Suns: 3rd game/4 nites. Nuggets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Warriors: 3rd game/4 nites. Jazz: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Rockets: Had last three nites off. Lakers: 5th game/7 nites.
Totals
-- Five of last six Thunder games stayed under the total. Indiana's last four games went over.
-- Seven of last nine New Jersey games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Detroit road games stayed under total. Atlanta's last three games all went over.
-- Eight of last nine Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-4 in Toronto's last ten games.
-- Four of last five Hornet games stayed under the total. Four of last five Milwaukee games went over.
-- Over is 8-4 in Charlotte's last twelve games.
-- Five of last six Portland games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3 in last ten Phoenix road games.
-- Under is 7-2 in Golden State's last nine road games.
-- Over is 8-3 in Lakers' last eleven games.
Back-to-Back
-- Washington is 4-2 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Detroit is 2-0 if it won the night before.
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