Spurs at Thunder Game 4: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5, 202.5)
THE STORY: It's often said that a playoff series doesn't truly begin until the home team loses, and the Oklahoma City Thunder sent a loud reminder of that to the San Antonio Spurs with a rout in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. The host Thunder will look to even the series at two games apiece Saturday night after snapping the Spurs' 20-game winning streak. It was only the second win in 12 meetings for Oklahoma City, which improved to 6-0 at home in the playoffs.
ABOUT THE SPURS: San Antonio went from unstoppable in Game 2 to overwhelmed in Game 3. In losing for the first time since April 11, the Spurs were held to their lowest point total since Jan. 27. Although the Spurs were due for a dud after winning 31 of their last 33 games, one troublesome aspect in the past two games has been the performance of future Hall of Famer Tim Duncan. After playing brilliantly through the first nine games of the postseason, Duncan is coming off back-to-back 11-point efforts and has shot a combined 7 of 26 in the two contests. He managed only two rebounds but did have five blocked shots to surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for first place on the career postseason blocks list.
ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City needed to get more contributions from beyond its Big 3, and Thabo Sefolosha provided more than the Thunder – and Spurs – could imagine with a standout performance at both ends of the court in Game 3. Sefolosha, who entered the game averaging four points in the playoffs, matched his season high with 19 points to go along with six steals and six rebounds. Sefolosha also drew the defensive assignment on Spurs point guard Tony Parker, forcing him into more turnovers (five) than assists (four) two days after Parker shredded the Thunder for 34 points. Also stepping up was forward Serge Ibaka, who scored 14 points – one more than his first two games combined – and blocked three shots.
TRENDS:
- Over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings.
- The Spurs are 18-8-3 ATS in their last 29 road games.
- The over is 8-2 in the Thunder's last 10 games as a favorite.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. San Antonio was denied in its bid to join the Los Angeles Lakers as the only teams to open the postseason with 11 straight victories.
2. Thunder All-Star PG Russell Westbrook scored a playoff-low 10 points, but he had nine assists and four steals.
3. The Spurs had scored more than 100 points 18 times during the 20-game winning streak.
Game 4, Spurs-Thunder
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Western Conference Finals took an interesting turn as the home team held serve for the third consecutive game in Oklahoma City's blowout of San Antonio. Not only did the Thunder hand the Spurs their first loss in 21 games, but OKC proved it is ready to extend this series at least back to San Antonio. The Game 3 number (Oklahoma City -4) told us everything, as the Thunder helped backers in a 102-82 rout of the Spurs, while easily staying 'under' the inflated total of 206.
After the two teams combined for 231 points in San Antonio's 11-point victory in Game 2, Oklahoma City's defense clamped down by holding Gregg Popovich's club to exactly 41 points in each half of Game 3. The Spurs overcame an early 8-0 deficit to eventually lead after the first quarter, 24-22, thus killing OKC (-2) bets in the opening period. However, the Thunder roared back in the second quarter to cover the first half number of -3 by outscoring the Spurs, 32-17 to take a 54-41 advantage at the intermission.
One of the keys to Oklahoma City's success on Thursday was scoring help past the usual production from Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. The Thunder received unexpected contributions from defensive specialists Thabo Sefolosha (19 points) and Serge Ibaka (14 points), while OKC limited San Antonio to 39.5% shooting from the field. The trio of Durant, Westbrook, and Harden scored just 47 points combined, but another key to OKC's success is its consistency from the free throw line (16-for-17).
It's an unrealistic thought to believe Tony Parker would duplicate his Game 2 scoring line of 34 points on 16-for-21 shooting from the floor again in Game 3, as the Spurs' All-Star converted just six field goals en route to 16 points on Thursday. Tim Duncan's struggles continued in Game 3 by shooting just 5-for-15 from the field, dropping the future Hall-of-Famer to 7-for 26 from the floor the last two games.
Oklahoma City improved to 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS at home in the playoffs, while winning 12 of its previous 15 postseason contests at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Scott Brooks' team owned a 21-6 SU and 12-15 ATS home record off a home victory this season, but is 4-9 ATS the last 13 games in this situation since March 9. The win by the Thunder over the Spurs was only the second in the previous 12 meetings, while moving to 3-5 SU/ATS at home against San Antonio since relocating from Seattle in 2008.
The last time the Spurs lost a game prior to Game 3 was against the Lakers without Kobe Bryant at home on April 11. During San Antonio's 20-game winning streak, the Spurs cashed for backers on 17 occasions, while eclipsing the 100-point mark 18 times. However, it was clear on Thursday that when the Spurs are losing by double-digits, Popovich pulls the plug as evidenced by six defeats this season by 10 points or more.
The Spurs have proven to get things back on track after a loss this season by posting a 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS record the last nine games off a setback. San Antonio has cashed in five of its past six opportunities on the road off a loss, including outright victories at Orlando, Denver, and Memphis.
VegasInsider.com's Chris David gives some perspective on the line movement for Saturday's contest, "If you bet strictly on the odds and line moves, then the play in Game 4 is San Antonio. "Why? The number opened 4 for Saturday's game and has been hit down to 3 at most shops, with a couple offshore outfits still holding 3 ½. Yet, when you check out any betting trend on this matchup, the public is backing OKC, yet the number is going in the opposite direction, which tells you where the smart money is. I'm fully aware that the sharps don't always win, but they do take advantage of value and they come ahead in the end."
The favorites have dominated recently in the postseason, as David says that can be a solid reason to go with OKC, "If you want to go with current form and playoff trends, then you can back up your rationale on the Thunder. This year's playoffs at least the last two rounds have been all about the favorites. The last healthy underdog to win outright came in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals when Indiana upset Miami on the road. With that being said, OKC is the play and it's hard to argue against a team that is 6-0 at home in the playoffs. However, you could be a little hesitant to back the Thunder since they're just 3-3 ATS during this span and three of the wins came by three points or less."
David notes the Spurs are 4-1 to the 'under' away from the AT&T Center in the postseason, but the total is a tough call in Game 4, "I normally have a good feel on totals but this is a pass for me for a few reasons. You do get some value in the line drop but you don't know what you're going to get from the Spurs if the game gets out of control again. Pop rested his players and will probably do the same if they trailed by double digits, which means it turns into a 3-point shooting barrage from his bench. If they hit, you got a shot, otherwise you're most likely looking at an 'under' winner."
The Thunder is set as 3½-point favorites in Game 4, while the total sits at 202½. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST from Chesapeake Energy Arena and will be televised nationally on TNT.
SAN ANTONIO (60 - 17) at OKLAHOMA CITY (56 - 22)
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 144-117 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 50-24 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 108-74 ATS (+26.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 155-112 ATS (+31.8 Units) after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-5 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-3 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 16 of San Antonio's last 24 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio
San Antonio at Oklahoma City
San Antonio: 8-0 ATS off loss by 20+
Oklahoma City: 0-8 ATS off win by 20+