Celtics at Heat Game 7: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (-7.5, 178)
THE STORY: LeBron James has a tough act to follow when the Miami Heat host the Boston Celtics in Saturday’s Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals. James had 45 points and 15 rebounds in a terrific performance as Miami staved off elimination in Game 6 to even the best-of-7 series at 3-3. Boston won Game 5 in Miami but needs a second road breakthrough to advance to the NBA Finals. The winner meets the Oklahoma City Thunder.
ABOUT THE CELTICS: Boston will rely on its veterans to quickly put the 98-79 home beatdown behind them with an NBA Finals berth on the line. Forward Paul Pierce will be under the microscope after a poor Game 6 in which he scored just nine points on 4-for-18 shooting. Pierce has connected on just 33.6 percent of his field-goal attempts in the series while playing on a gimpy knee. Forward Kevin Garnett had his worst contest of the series with 12 points and five rebounds after being a resounding force with four double-doubles over the first five games. Point guard Rajon Rondo has committed 12 turnovers over the past two games.
ABOUT THE HEAT: James had a focused approach in Game 6 while becoming just the second player in NBA playoff history to have a game of at least 45 points, 15 rebounds and five assists. Wilt Chamberlain had 50 points, 15 rebounds and six assists back in the 1964 playoffs against the St. Louis Hawks. James made 19 of 26 shots and dominated from the outset under the pressure of the win or go home stage. “I didn’t use any motivation,” James said. “I just went to my habits. I went to what I built over the course of the season, over the course of the years, and just went out and played.” James is averaging 34 points and 10.8 rebounds in the series.
TRENDS:
- Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall
- Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
- Celtics are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. James is the first player to score 25 or more points in six consecutive playoff games against the Celtics since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar did it seven straight times for the Milwaukee Bucks in 1974.
2. Pierce, Garnett and Ray Allen had a combined 31 points in Game 6, their lowest in a playoff game as a trio in five seasons since becoming teammates.
3. Miami forward Chris Bosh (lower abdominal strain) played 28 minutes in Game 6 and is expected to see his minutes increase for the finale.
Game 7, Heat vs. Celtics
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Who you got?
That question will be asked early and often on Saturday when Miami and Boston meet in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. According to the oddsmakers, they believe the Heat will advance to the NBA Finals, opening the home squad as an eight-point favorite over Boston. The number has dropped to 7 1/2 at a handful of offshore sports books, which is a little surprising considering the Celtics’ effort in Game 6 on Thursday.
Miami opened up a double-digit lead (26-16) after the first quarter and never looked back. The Heat cruised to a 98-79 victory, easily covering the first-half, second-half and game numbers. LeBron James had another monster effort, finishing with 45 points, 15 rebounds and five assists. He scored 30 points in the first half and lived up to his MVP billing. Bettors playing his point-total proposition in this series, which hovers around 31 points, have been able to cash in five of the six games. The one time it didn’t connect was in Game 4 at Boston when he fouled out with 29 points.
VegasInsider.com expert Kevin Rogers has had a tough time getting a pulse on this series. Rogers said, “This series has been very interesting from the standpoint that once you think you have everything figured out, it goes in a different direction. James absolutely took over in the Game 6 blowout, but will he repeat that performance in Game 7? Also, Boston shot poor from the field and Pierce picked up three quick fouls. Does that happen again?”
While James was brilliant on Thursday, Pierce was awful and truth be told, he’s had a less than stellar series but will get a pass by most because of the big 3-pointer he hit in Boston’s victory (94-90) in Game 5 at Miami. Pierce isn’t the only one to blame for the blowout loss in Game 6. The entire team shot 43 percent from the field, including 1-of-11 from the 3-point land. Miami shot 49 percent from the floor and connected on 7-of-16 (44%) bombs from downtown, plus they only missed five free throws (17-of-22) in the road win.
Those following and more importantly, those betting the NBA should have a good grip on how well the home team has performed in Game 7. The home squad has gone 88-22 (80%) in the 110 Game 7’s played in the NBA playoffs. That’s a straight-up number and if you believe Miami can keep the trend rolling, then a money-line price of minus-450 (Bet $450 to win $100) is available. Those believing Boston can steal a Game 7 can receive a generous takeback close to plus-375 (Bet $100 to win $375).
The odds are stacked against Boston here but since the franchise assembled “The Big Three” of Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, the trio has led the team to a 4-2 record in decisive Game 7’s and injuries played a toll in the two losses. KG missed the 2009 conference semifinals Game 7 against Orlando (82-101) at home, and many Boston fans believe the Celtics would’ve beaten the Lakers (79-83) in Game 7 of the 2010 NBA Finals if Kendrick Perkins didn’t blow his knee out.
Experience definitely sides with Boston in this scenario and we should point out that Miami’s “Big Three” of James (0-2), Dwyane Wade (1-2) and Chris Bosh are a combined 1-4 in Game 7’s. Saturday will be the first Game 7 in Bosh’s career and the first Game 7 for Miami with the talented trio.
Rogers delved more into the outcomes of the recent Game 7 finales in this round. “Looking from a historical standpoint, this is the ninth Game 7 in the conference finals since 1994. In the previous eight contests, six games were decided by six points or less, including Miami's 88-82 home loss to Detroit in 2005.”
“However, home teams in Game 7 that needed to win Game 6 on the road to stay alive own a 5-3 record since 2003. This situation came up once in this year’s postseason as the Grizzlies won Game 6 from Staples Center against the Los Angeles Clippers down 3-2, but failed to pick up the home victory in Game 7 of their first-round battle.”
Along with the Clippers-Grizzlies encounter, there were two other Game 7’s played in this year’s playoffs. The Lakers beat the Nuggets at home in the first round, while the Celtics stopped the 76ers from TD Garden in the conference semifinals.
Miami has gone 7-2 at American Airlines Arena in the postseason and the two losses came by a combined seven points. While those numbers are impressive, the margins of victory for the Heat during the playoffs have been eye opening. In its 11 postseason wins, 10 have come by eight points or more with the smallest outcome coming in Game 2 of this series (115-111) at home.
Boston is just 3-6 on the road in the playoffs but they have produced a 5-4 record against the spread, including a 2-1 ledger versus the Heat.
After watching the ‘over’ cash in four straight games of this series, total players watched the ‘under’ cash in Game 6. The two teams put up 97 points in the first half, which helped the ‘over’ cash again for half-time players, but only 80 points were posted in the last 24 minutes.
The total on Game 7 opened at 179½ and is currently hovering between 178 and 179 at most betting shops. Even though the ‘over’ has prevailed to a 4-2 mark, the pace hasn’t been fast and that record could be 3-3 or 4-2 to the ‘under.’
It’s understood that you handicap games based on matchups, odds, current form, etc…However, trends and tendencies are shall we say, good to know. With that being said, the three Game 7’s that were played in this year’s playoffs all went ‘under’ the number, rather easily too. And if you look at the past 10 Game 7’s, the ‘under’ is 8-2 and those who have good memories know that last year’s lone Game 7 in the playoffs between Oklahoma City and Memphis should’ve stayed ‘under’ the number too. Thanks Greivis Vasquez!
Tip-off for tonight’s Game 7 is set for 8:30 p.m. ET, with ESPN providing national coverage. In case you’re thinking ahead, the winner of this matchup will head to Oklahoma City on Tuesday for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Thunder went 3-1 both SU and ATS against the Celtics (2-0) and Heat (1-1) during the regular season and the ‘under’ cashed in three of the four meetings.
We spoke to Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports operations at the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) and got potential numbers on the Thunder vs. Boston or Miami for the finals.
Series Prices:
Oklahoma City -280
Boston +240
Oklahoma City -125
Miami +105
Game 1 Side & Total
Oklahoma City -7
Boston 194
Oklahoma City -3
Miami 197
NBA Preview
Celtics @ Heat (3-3) -- Lebron James was 19-26 from floor as he pulled Heat into series tie with dominating game, becoming 2nd player ever to score 45 points, with 15 boards/5 assists in playoff game; Chamberlain was the other. Problem for Miami in Game 6 was that rest of team was 18-50 (36%) from floor; they'll need more in this game, since expecting James to repeat that performance is unfair. Rondo had seven turnovers last game, while Pierce was 4-18 from floor. James took total of 30 foul shots in last four games, after taking 24 in Game 2. Over is 8-3 in 11 Celtic playoff wins; under is 5-2-1 in their losses, so containing Rondo is still job #1. How Boston defends James will determine flow of game. Celtics' points in wins: 101-93-94.....losses: 79-111(ot)-79
Armadillosports.com
BOSTON (50 - 35) at MIAMI (57 - 26)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 18-9 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 17-10 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
16 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
Boston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Miami's last 25 games at home
Miami is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Los Angeles at New Jersey
Los Angeles: 11-3 SU when leading in a playoff series
New Jersey: 17-5 Under in the Stanley Cup Finals