NBA Betting News and Notes Saturday, April 27

Inside the Paint - Saturday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

The NBA playoffs continue Saturday night with a double-header and the two matchups feature teams facing 2-0 deficits. In case you’re wondering, only 15 teams in NBA history have overcome this hole and managed to win a best-of-seven series, which doesn’t bode well for the Hawks and Rockets.

Let’s break down the primetime battles.

Indiana at Atlanta

In my opinion, the Pacers have been the biggest surprise of this year’s playoffs so far. After humbling Atlanta 107-90 in Game 1 last Sunday, Indiana outdid itself in Game 2 and cruised to a 113-98 victory in Game 2 on Wednesday. The 113 points scored by the Pacers was the highest output in a playoff game since the team crushed the L.A. Lakers 120-87 in Game 5 of the 2000 NBA Finals.

What’s even more surprising about the 2-0 lead is that Indiana wasn’t in great form heading into this series. Head coach Frank Vogel and the Pacers closed the season with a 1-5 straight up and 0-6 against the spread mark, yet they still earned the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.

For the second straight game, the Pacers’ Paul George led all scorers with 27 points. The second-year player is now the face of Indiana franchise and he can do it all, which was proven with his triple-double performance (23 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists) in Game 1.

Along with George’s dominance, the Pacers have received great production from their bench. The reserves put up 24 in Game 1 and 38 in Game 2. The top sub in Wednesday’s win was Gerald Green, who scored 15 points in 27 minutes.

Offensively, Atlanta was far from terrible. It shot 49 and 50 percent in the two losses but the defense and constant foul trouble disrupted any chemistry and screwed up the rotation. The Pacers went to the free throw line 63 times in the first two games and connected on 51 of the freebies. Meanwhile, Atlanta has gone 18-of-34 in this series from the charity stripe.

Despite losing both games in Indiana by double-digits, oddsmakers aren’t selling off the Hawks just yet. Atlanta opened as a two-point home favorite for Game 3 and the number has been bumped up to 2 ½ at most shops.

Including the two wins in this series, Indiana has won four straight games against the Hawks. So why is Atlanta favored? For starters, all four of those wins came at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. And more importantly, the Hawks have won 11 straight home meetings against Indiana, eight of them by double digits. Indiana went 19-21 SU and 20-20 ATS on the road this season, which includes two straight losses away from home. Also, the Pacers had their Apr. 16 road battle at Boston cancelled due to the bombings.

Atlanta has produced a 25-16 record at home but gamblers should be weary of backing a team that’s just 14-25 ATS at home. Keep in mind this line is short and Atlanta has gone 11-5 ATS as a favorite of 3½-points or less this season and the Pacers are 4-8 ATS (33%) in the same scenario as underdogs.

Including the two games in this series, the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 between the pair this season. The total is sitting at 190 for Game 3, which is a slight jump from the closing numbers (185, 187) in the first two installments.

The Hawks are listed at an 8/1 price (Bet $100 to win $800) to win the best-of-seven series. The two teams will square off in Game 4 on Monday from Philips Arena.

Oklahoma City at Houston

On Friday afternoon, the Thunder announced that All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook will undergo surgery to repair a lateral meniscus tear in his right knee. He’s been ruled ‘out’ for Game 3 and possibly the rest of this series and the playoffs. How will Oklahoma City respond? That’s a difficult to question to answer considering Westbrook has never missed a game in his NBA career.

Oddsmakers had Oklahoma City listed a listed as a three-point road favorite for Game 3 prior to the Westbrook injury. After the announcement, Houston is now being listed as a one-point home favorite for Saturday’s matchup.

With Westbrook, Oklahoma City finished the regular season as the top seed in the Western Conference and it has lived up to the billing in the first round. The Thunder blasted the Rockets by 29 points (120-91) in Game 1 last Sunday and followed up the wire-to-wire victory with a 105-102 win in Game 2 on Wednesday. Oklahoma City failed to cover as an 11-point home favorite in the second installment and they almost blew a 15-point lead late in the fourth quarter. The Rockets used a 21-2 in the final 12 minutes and led 95-91 with a little over three minutes left on the clock. Then OKC decided to play defense and they closed the game with a 14-6 burst, which include crucial 3-pointers from Kevin Durant and Thabo Sefolosha. Durant finished the game with 29 points and nine assists while Westbrook added 29 points as well. Houston’s James Harden led all scorers with 36 points, 17 of them coming from the free throw line.

Can Houston rebound from the tough setback? They will be at home for two games and they seem to be ready for the challenge. "We were down 15, we could have just given up the game and said, `Let's go to Game 3,' but we fought back and took the lead," Harden said. "So, we definitely have some confidence going into Game 3 and going back home."

Including the victories in this series, OKC has won four of five against Houston this season. The lone win for the Rockets came on Feb. 20 from the Toyota Center as they notched a 122-119 win as three-point home ‘dogs. In that game, Harden scored 46 points and Jeremy Lin added 29 points.

Lin sat out the second-half of Game 2 due to a chest bruise but is listed as ‘probable’ for Game 3. Head coach Kevin McHale switched things up on Wednesday and started Patrick Beverly with Harden and Lin in the backcourt, which worked. The Rockets have conceded that they can’t stop OKC so they’re going to win with offense. Now with Westbrook banged up, you wonder if McHale goes back to his normal lineup for Game 3 or does he push the tempo even more without Westbrook.

OKC went 26-15 SU and 22-17 ATS on the road this year, which included five straight wins and covers to close the season. Houston has gone 29-12 SU and 24-17 ATS at home.

If you believe the Rockets can create a rally and still win this series against the short-handed Thunder, then you should take a look at the series price. Houston was listed at a 30/1 price (Bet $100 to win $3,000) to overcome the 0-2 deficit and win the best-of-seven battle but that number has dropped to 24/1 (Bet $100 to win $2,400) due to the injury.

Total players have watched the ‘under’ go 2-0 in the first two games and those results were helped with some scoring droughts in the second-halves. The total for Game 3 opened at 211 and dropped to 209. After the Westbrook news, the number was adjusted to 208.

A possible elimination matchup in Game 4 is set for Monday from Toyota Center.

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Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls (-2.5, 178)

Bulls lead series 2-1.

The Chicago Bulls are now in position to take a commanding 3-1 lead when they host the Brooklyn Nets in Saturday’s Game 4 of the Eastern Conference best-of-seven series. Chicago squeezed out a 79-76 victory in Thursday’s Game 3 in a contest in which both teams shot poorly. Nets guard Joe Johnson and Bulls center Joakim Noah are both dealing with foot ailments. Game 5 is in Brooklyn and the Nets would like to go home even.

Fourth-seeded Chicago shot just 39.7 percent on Thursday while holding the Nets to 34.6 percent. The Bulls know the contest wasn’t aesthetically pleasing but it was the results that mattered to them. “We did what we had to do to win the game,” said Bulls forward Carlos Boozer, who had 22 points and 16 rebounds. “In the playoffs, you have to win different ways. Nothing is perfect.” Fifth-seeded Brooklyn has averaged 79 points while losing the last two games and point guard Deron Williams is frustrated with the offense. “When we get the ball swung to the weak side and we get some movement, we’re fine,” Williams said. “But when we just let them keep us on one side, we’re struggling.”

ABOUT THE NETS: Johnson received a cortisone shot in his sore left foot prior to Game 3 so he could play and scored 15 points on 6-of-14 shooting. Johnson indicated he wouldn’t have been able to play without the injection. “I felt pretty good the whole game other than probably about the last two to three minutes,” Johnson said. “It kind of tightened up. But other than that, I felt all right.” Johnson is averaging 16 points and shooting 42.2 percent in the series and it remains to be seen whether he will need another shot prior to Saturday’s game.

ABOUT THE BULLS: Boozer is averaging 20 points and 12 rebounds and shooting 57.4 percent in the series. He had a 25-point game in the opener and was sensational in the Game 3 victory. “Carlos is huge, man,” forward Luol Deng said. “He was hitting some big shots for us. He’s been playing great. Every time they made a run, he was just giving them an answer. Carlos is a great player, man.” Deng also had a fine outing with 21 points and 10 rebounds for his second straight double-double. Noah missed all seven of his field-goal attempts but contributed eight boards in 27 minutes despite the foot issues.

TRENDS:

* Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 7-1 in Nets’ last eight games following a loss.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Nets C Brook Lopez had 22 points, nine rebounds and seven blocked shots in Game 3. He is averaging 21.3 points in the series.

2. Bulls PG Kirk Hinrich is averaging 12.5 points in Chicago’s two victories and had just two points in the one loss.

3. Brooklyn is 15-for-56 from 3-point range in the series and the Bulls are just 8-for-35.

Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks (-2.5, 190.5)

Pacers lead series 2-0.

The Atlanta Hawks have not done a very good job defensively in the first two games of the series against the Indiana Pacers. The Hawks will try to improve on that end when the series shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Saturday. The Pacers were not exactly known for an uptempo style in the regular season but have put up 220 points in the first two games of the series behind a pair of strong efforts from Paul George.

George recorded a triple-double in the first game and added some offensive aggression en route to 27 points in Game 2. The small forward also provides a tough matchup on the other end for Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, DeShawn Stevenson or any other player Atlanta has sent at the defensively-sound George. Indiana has taken each of the first two games by at least 15 points and has been strong enough in the post to force the Hawks to settle for shots on the perimeter.

ABOUT THE PACERS: George has gotten plenty of help from George Hill and Gerald Green on the outside, taking some of the focus away from Roy Hibbert and David West in the middle. West struggled with foul trouble in Game 2 and was held to seven points and one rebound in 20 minutes. Indiana still managed to make the 113-98 victory look easy as seldom-used forward Jeff Pendergraph came off the bench to provide a lift. The Pacers are using the athleticism on the wings of George and Green to explode into the paint and attack, which gives an offense that finished 23rd in the regular season in scoring average some extra burst.

ABOUT THE HAWKS: Atlanta battled through foul trouble in each of the first two games and is hoping a change in venue will even up a discrepancy that has seen the Pacers attempt 63 free throws to the Hawks’ 34. Atlanta was even called for three technical fouls in Game 2, including one that had Al Horford in disbelief. Horford put up a double-double in Game 2 but Smith was limited by an ankle injury and foul trouble to 20 minutes. The Hawks tried bigger lineups with Ivan Johnson or Johan Petro in the middle but could not keep the Pacers off the offensive glass. “They handled their home court and now Game 3 is crucial for us, and now we have to handle ours,” Horford said.

TRENDS:

* Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Pacers’ last seven overall.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Pacers have won each of their first two playoff games by at least 15 points for the first time since joining the NBA in 1976.

2. Atlanta took both meetings on its home court during the regular season, 89-86 on Nov. 7 and 109-100 on Dec. 29.

3. Indiana G Lance Stephenson suffered a bruised right hip in Game 2 but returned to the floor and is probable for Game 3.

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Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies (-3.5, 177)

Clippers lead series 2-1.

The Memphis Grizzlies attempt to tie their Western Conference series with Los Angeles when they host the Clippers on Saturday in Game 4 of the best-of-seven series. Memphis recovered from two losses in Los Angeles to post a 94-82 victory in Thursday’s Game 3 and played with a higher level of aggressiveness. Clippers point guard Chris Paul seeks to bounce back from a performance in which he had more turnovers (five) than assists (four).

Paul was upset with himself after the contest as the fourth-seeded Clippers opened the door for Memphis to get back into the series. “They made some good adjustments and now it will be our opportunity to make our adjustments,” Paul said. “Game 4 will be a big game for both of us. We know we need this game so we can go back home and have an opportunity to close it out.” The fifth-seeded Grizzlies were glad to avoid a 0-3 hole but know there is plenty of work to do. “We haven’t done anything yet,” guard Tony Allen said. “We’ve won one game. There is a Game 4. We’re not even too happy about it. We just have to focus on Game 4 and take care of business.”

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Los Angeles averaged 102.5 points in its two victories and never got into the flow in Game 3 while shooting 38.8 percent. Paul had eight points on 4-of-11 shooting but wasn’t the lone player to have a subpar outing. Sixth man Jamal Crawford had 10 points on 3-of-10 shooting and backup guard Eric Bledsoe missed all four of his shots after going 10-for-13 over the first two games. The Clippers committed 18 turnovers with the usually reliable Paul being the biggest culprit. “It’s uncharacteristic of us,” Paul said. “I mean especially me. I had five turnovers and our turnovers led to 17 of their points.”

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Power forward Zach Randolph had a monster game with 27 points and 11 rebounds in Game 3 after totaling just 26 points and 12 rebounds in the first two games. It was the type of performance Memphis has come to expect from a player who had 45 double-doubles in the regular season. “I definitely wanted to come out and be aggressive,” Randolph said afterward. “They’ve been double-teaming, triple-teaming me. So just go fast, hit a couple jump shots and open it up. Most definitely, I wanted to come out and be aggressive.” Allen also had a fine game with 13 points and nine rebounds, falling one board short of his second straight double-double.

TRENDS:

* Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Clippers’ last five road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies’ last five home games.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Memphis.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Grizzlies have won the battle of the boards in each of the past two games after Los Angeles had a dominating 47-23 edge in the opener.

2. Clippers F Blake Griffin had just two rebounds in Game 3 and is grabbing just five per game in the series.

3. Memphis swingman Quincy Pondexter had 13 points in Game 3 after totaling just five in the first two contests.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets (1, 208.5)

Thunder lead series 2-0.

The Houston Rockets weren’t given much of a shot of upsetting Oklahoma City in the first place and the odds will become nearly impossible if they don’t defeat the visiting Thunder in Game 3 on Saturday. However, the Rockets' odds of winning Game 3 became a lot better Friday. Oklahoma City point guard Russell Westbrook will require surgery for a torn meniscus in his right knee. The team said that Westbrook suffered his injury in the second quarter of Game 2 against the Rockets on Wednesday and be out indefinitely. Houston lost the first two games of the Western Conference best-of-seven series and the eighth-seeded Rockets are in must-win mode after falling three points short in Game 2. Top-seeded Oklahoma City let a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead get away before sealing the 105-102 win.

The Thunder struggled with Houston’s lineup and strategy revisions in Game 2. Rookie guard Patrick Beverley moved into the starting lineup and contributed 16 points and 12 rebounds while going toe-to-toe with Oklahoma star Russell Westbrook. “I thought the lineup gave them a little issue,” forward Chandler Parsons said. “When we space the floor like that, they can’t guard us. I think we showed that and proved that we can score on them.” Houston also had 18 offensive rebounds and had a 57-40 overall edge on the boards and Thunder coach Scott Brooks wasn’t thrilled with the overall performance. “We won the game so we’re happy with that,” Brooks said. “We’re not saying we’re satisfied but we’re happy. We did a lot of good things, but we also have to understand that they’re really good.”

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City stars Kevin Durant (10-for-26) and Westbrook (10-for-25) had trouble shooting in Game 2 as the Rockets played a zone most of the contest. The defensive alignment also forced the Thunder into several uncharacteristic turnovers. “It’s not easy. We haven’t seen it much during the year,” guard Thabo Sefolosha said. “When a team throws a zone at us like this, we try to keep the ball moving, keep bodies moving and really try to attack the paint. I think this is where the weakness is. We’ve got to do a better job at driving the ball and then maybe kicking it out.” Taking advantage in the interior didn’t happen in Game 2 as Houston had a 50-30 edge in points in the paint.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS: Whether or not Houston has point guard Jeremy Lin available will be decided prior to Game 3. Lin missed the second half of Game 2 and underwent an MRI exam on Thursday that revealed he has a bruised muscle in his chest. Lin hopes he can play but his optimism was tempered by the fact he was unable to shoot the basketball on Thursday. “I really don’t know because this is something that should heal quickly but right now I’m not there yet so I don’t know when I will be (able to play).” Lin was 4-of-14 shooting for 11 total points in the first two games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Houston G James Harden had 36 points in Game 2 and is averaging 28 points and 8.5 rebounds in the series.

2. Thunder F Serge Ibaka has nine blocks in the two games while averaging 14.5 points and nine rebounds.

3. The Rockets are 18-of-71 from 3-point range through two games.

2013 NBA Playoffs

Four of six Chicago-Brooklyn games this season were decided by 4 or less points; Nets shot 35.4/34.6% in last two games, after making 55.8% of shots in Game 1- Brooklyn guards are 18-55 from the floor in last two games. Bulls haven't had Rose all year, so you can make case that he is not missed as much as someone who played part of season. Chicago led Game 3 76-62 with 5:42 left, held on for dear life, scoring three points in rest of 79-76 win. Home favorites are 13-9 vs spread league-wide so far in playoffs, 6-5 in Eastern Conference so far.

Home side won all three LA-Memphis games; Grizzlies bench rallied to -9 last game, after being -43 in Game 2- they held their own, let starters win game. Clippers made 18-57 from arc in series- so far in series, their FG% has dropped from 55.4% to 47.4% to 38.8% in series- they need more easy baskets. Memphis outrebounded LA by 10 in last two games, after beig -24 in Game 1. Clippers won five of seven series games this year, winning two of three here- they've taken 20 less FTs than Griz so far in this series. LA's bench was just 10-26 in Game 3.

Home side won all six Atlanta-Indiana games this season; Pacers lost its visits to Atlanta this season, by 3-9 points, with five of six series games going over total. Atlanta is 2-7 in its last nine games overall, with six of last seven going over total. Pacers outscored Atlanta 51-17 from foul line in its first two series games; Hawks haven't figured out how to stop the Pacers' best player George, who is +42 in two games, scoring 50 points- they put him on line less in Game 2, only seven times after he 17-18 in Game 1. Under is 11-10-1 in playoffs, 6-4-1 in Eastern Conference.

Westbrook had knee surgery, is out for Thunder, huge blow to its title hopes; he was +30 in 67 minutes in series. Derek Fisher is only true PG on roster, he's little old to be playing major minutes. Thunder scored 120-124-119-120-105 in winning four of its five games with Houston this season, splitting pair here, winning 124-94 (68-50 at half), then losing 122-119, when Harden had 46 points. Lin/Harden combined to go 19-57 from floor in first two series games; team is 18-71 on arc. Asik is +9 in 61 minutes in series; Rockets are -41 other 37 minutes on series.

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