NBA Knowledge
Toronto-Cleveland
Cavaliers won six of last eight games with Toronto; over is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Raptors lost by 31-19 points in first two games this series- they're 6-2 at home in playoffs. Cavs are 10-0 SU in the playoffs, 7-3 vs spread (over 5-4-1). Toronto won four of last five home games; three of last four went over. NBA playoff faves of 8+ points are 21-6 against the spread this season.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 3-1, over: 1-2-1
Armadillosports.com
Game 3 - Cavaliers at Raptors
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Only one team remaining in the NBA playoffs has yet to lose in the postseason as the Cavaliers made it a perfect 10-0 mark with Thursday’s rout of the Raptors. Cleveland pulled away in the final five minutes of the second quarter to crush an overwhelmed Toronto squad, 108-89 to grab a 2-0 series and sit two victories away from its second consecutive NBA Finals appearance.
The Cavaliers overcame a slow start in Game 1 to steamroll the tired Raptors, 115-84 after Toronto eliminated Miami in seven games of the conference semifinals. Cleveland led Toronto, 30-28 after one quarter in Game 2 as the Raptors were expected to give their strongest punch immediately following the Game 1 blowout. The Raptors overcame an early eight-point deficit to take a 43-42 advantage with 5:37 remaining in the second quarter on Thursday. From there, the flood gates opened up and the Raptors were knocked to the mat.
Cleveland put together a 17-5 run in the final 5:30 minutes of the half, which included the Cavaliers knocking down 8-of-9 free throws. Tyronn Lue’s club went up by as many 20 points in the fourth quarter, as the Raptors could never creep within the 11½ underdog number, missing four three-point attempts in the final minutes and ultimately losing by 19. Toronto suffered consecutive losses in the playoffs for the first time in 2016, while the Raptors fell to 1-6 SU/ATS in the last seven games away from the Air Canada Center.
LeBron James did whatever he wanted for the second straight game by posting a triple-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists on 7-of-13 shooting. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 26 points, while Kevin Love contributed 19 points as Cleveland knocked down 50% of its shots from the floor. Cleveland outrebounded Toronto once again, 46-38, as James and Tristan Thompson each pulled down double-digit rebounds.
The Raptors struggled from the floor by hitting 40% of its shots, as Kyle Lowry continued his shooting woes by connecting on 4-of-14 attempts for 10 points. Lowry hasn’t been reliable from three-point range since hitting 5-of-7 shots from downtown in Game 7 against Miami, as the Toronto guard is 1-for-15 from long range in the Eastern Conference Finals. DeMar DeRozan did his part for the second straight game after putting up 18 points in Game 1 as the Raptors’ All-Star scored 22 points and pulled down five rebounds.
In four road games for Cleveland in the playoffs, the Cavaliers have allowed more than 100 points just once, coming in the Game 3 shootout victory of the second round over the Hawks, 121-108. The Cavs have scored more than 101 points on the highway in the playoffs only once, while Cleveland has scored 101 or less in 11 of the past 12 postseason games away from Quicken Loans Arena (‘under’ 7-4-1).
Since 2010, James-led teams own a solid 7-1 SU/ATS record as a road favorite when leading a playoff series, 2-0. In each of the first two rounds of the postseason, the Cavaliers took care of business against the Pistons and Hawks, while beating the Celtics in this situation in the opening round in 2015. The only loss in this span by James came as a member of the Heat in the 2014 conference semifinals at Brooklyn in a 104-90 defeat as one-point favorites.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David was upset with the effort from the Raptors in Game 2 but is hoping the club has amnesia headed backed home. He said, “I normally don’t like to wager on underdogs that I don’t believe have a shot to win and that was the case with Toronto on Thursday. I thought the value was with Raptors in Game 2, especially with the line being inflated by a couple points. They actually hung around for the first 20 minutes but like we’ve seen before, Lowry and company packed it in and gave bettors backing the Cavs another easy win and cover.”
“Fast forward to Saturday and it’s hard to make a case for Toronto but there are some betting angles that could have you grabbing the points. As home underdogs this season, the Raptors have gone 4-2 straight up and 5-1 against the spread, which includes a pair of wins against the Cavaliers. Coincidentally the losses came to the other two teams still left standing in this year’s playoffs -- Warriors (112-109) and Thunder (119-100),” David notes.
However, David makes an interesting parallel between Oklahoma City and Cleveland, “While the wins and close call against Golden State could have you buying Toronto on Saturday night, I took a closer look at the 19-point setback to Oklahoma City. That victory for the Thunder was part of an eight-game winning streak when the club was playing at its highest level and running through everybody and it looks very similar to what we’re seeing from Cleveland in the playoffs.”
The Raptors have compiled a 38-11 record at the Air Canada Center, which includes a 6-2 mark in the playoffs. All six of the victories by Toronto at home in the postseason came off a loss, but Dwane Casey’s club has put together a 5-11 ATS mark in the playoffs. That record is the worst from an ATS perspective in the postseason with a minimum of 10 games since the Thunder went 3-8 ATS in the 2013 playoffs.
David dug up some other numbers that could have you supporting Toronto as an underdog on Saturday and it focuses on the day. “Familiarity is sometimes used in handicapping and while these guys are professionals, switching up routines could cause problems. Cleveland hasn’t played on Saturday in this year’s playoffs and during the regular season, the Cavaliers went 7-6 on the sixth day of the week which includes a 1-5 record on the road. The Raptors have gone 7-3 on Saturdays but that mark has been hurt with a 1-2 effort in the postseason.”
The Cavaliers opened up as 5½-point favorites for Game 3, but that number has dropped down to 5 at most books. The total opened at 197½, while bettors jumped on the ‘over’ to push that number to 198½. The game tips off at 8:35 PM EST from the Air Canada Center and can be seen nationally on ESPN.
Saturday's NBA Conference Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+5.5, 198.5)
The Cleveland Cavaliers have dominated the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals and look to record their 11th straight victory this postseason when they visit the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. Cleveland won the first two games of the series by an average of 25 points to become the sixth team in NBA history to start the postseason with 10 or more victories.
The San Antonio Spurs (12 in 2012) and Los Angeles Lakers (11 in both 1989 and 2001) are the only teams to begin the playoffs with more consecutive wins than the red-hot Cavaliers. "I don't think it feels like a streak," James told reporters. "It feels like we won one game, we won the next game. We've taken one step at a time. We've tried to take care of business." The Raptors are returning home but there are few observers expecting them to make it a series after the way they were outclassed in Cleveland. "I don't think our guys have quit. I refuse to believe that," Toronto coach Dwane Casey said after Game 2. "We've won 56 (regular-season) games. We've been down before. We've had some rough patches and we've bounced back. I think this is the first time in the playoffs we've lost two games in a row, so this team will bounce back. I believe in them and they've got to believe in themselves, and I think they do."
LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers destroyed the Raptors in the first two games of the Eastern Conference final, and heading up to Canada for Game 3 the books opened with the Cavs as 5.5-point road favorites. The line did drop down to Raptors +5 on Friday morning but it appears, at the time of publication of this preview, that the line is beginning to move back to 5.5 at most books. The total opened at 197.5 and by Friday morning the books moved it up a full point to 198.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (67-25, 44-45-3 ATS, 46-46 O/U): James was superb with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in Game 2 for his 15th career playoff triple-double and he also moved into fourth place on the all-time playoffs scoring list with 5,255 points, passing Shaquille O'Neal (5,250). James (23.5 average on 18-of-26 shooting) and point guard Kyrie Irving (26.5 on 23-of-39 shooting) have torched the Raptors at will as Cleveland averaged 111.5 points over the first two games. Power forward Kevin Love is averaging just 16.5 points and 4.5 rebounds after posting double-doubles in each of the Cavaliers' first eight postseason games.
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (64-34, 50-48 ATS, 48-49-1 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry averaged just nine points in the first two games of the series and is 8-of-28 shooting, including 1-of-15 from 3-point range. He had seemingly put his postseason shooting slump behind him when he averaged 35.5 points over the final two games of the second-round series against Miami but he was a nonfactor in the two blowout losses in Cleveland. "I'm super confident," Lowry told reporters. "I missed countless 3s that I thought were good and that I made last series. That's why I'm not down on myself. We've got a game on Saturday, and I know I'm going to be much more effective."
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Finals games.
* Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 24-6 in Raptors last 30 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
* Under is 21-5-1 in the last 27 meetings in Toronto.
CONSENSUS: The wagering public is favoring the Cavaliers at a rate of 61 percent. Over is the popular pick on the totals board picking up 70 percent of the action.