NBA Knowledge
Oklahoma City-Golden State
Thunder led 72-47/72-53 at half of their two home wins in this series. Warriors stayed alive by holding serve on their home court, but home side won/covered last four games in this series; three of five games in series stayed under the total. Warriors need to tighten up, play slower and also play better defense. Golden State is 10-5 in playoffs after going 73-9 during year. Oklahoma City is 6-2 at home in playoffs- they ended last two series at home.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 6-5, over: 5-5-1
Armadillosports.com
Game 6 - Warriors at Thunder
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
After getting walloped by a combined 52 points in two losses at Oklahoma City, the Warriors rebounded on Thursday with a 120-11 win in Game 5 and kept their playoff hopes alive.
Golden State built a 58-50 lead at half before Oklahoma City trimmed that lead to four points (81-77) after three quarters. The Warriors came out strong in the fourth and led by as many as 13 points midway through the final stanza. The Thunder made a late run and cut the lead to six points and could’ve been down three if Kevin Durant connects on a 3-pointer in the final minute.
Unfortunately for OKC bettors grabbing the points (+7½) in Game 5, Durant’s shot missed and so did a pair of attempts from Nazr Mohammed and Dion Waiters. While those shots came up short, Golden State made 6-of-6 free throws down the stretch and earned the cover.
Sticking with free throws, Thunder head coach Billy Donovan felt his team was slighted on Thursday. He said, "The difference in the game to me was the fact they went to the free throw line 34 times."
As much as I like Donovan, I believe he’d take that quote back. Oklahoma City went to the line 24 times and while Golden State did have 10 more attempts, nine of them came in the final minute and one was given for Donovan getting a technical.
I guess he also forgot how Durant was gifted three freebies when his team was down 11 on Thursday and did Donovan complain when his team won the free throw battle (40-29, 37-25) in their home victories?
It’s easy to see where Donovan is coming from considering the winner of the first five games in this series also won the battle at the charity stripe. However, gauging how many free throws a team will take in basketball is comparable to handicapping penalties and turnovers in football, practically impossible.
The reason Oklahoma City lost in Game 5 is because they didn’t shoot well from the field (43%) and the Warriors bench had a plus-17 edge (30-13).
Golden State also won the rebound battle (52-50) and the role-player matchup with Andrew Bogut (15 points) and Marreese Speights (14) making Andre Roberson (6) and Steven Adams (8.) of the Thunder forgettable. Plus backup big man Enes Kanter had his minutes (6) cut once again and OKC certainly could’ve used his size.
Durant led the Thunder with 41 points in the loss while Russell Westbrook had 31 points but both All-Stars shot less than 40 percent from the field and were a combined 6-of-19 from 3-point land.
Stephen Curry (31) and Klay Thompson (27) combined for 58 points despite making 5-of-17 (29%) of their shots from downtown. The pair made up for that effort by making 19-of-20 free throws.
For the first time in this series, Oklahoma City has been installed as favorite with the club laying two points at most betting shops for Game 6.
Based on what we’ve seen in this round of the playoffs, VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers believes Oklahoma City could be a look in the close-out game. He explained, “Home teams have been fantastic against the spread in the conference finals. They own a terrific 9-2 record ATS, including a 4-1 ATS mark in the Western Conference finals. “
The Warriors have only been listed as underdogs four times this season and they posted a 3-1 record both straight up and against the spread. The lone loss took place in mid-March when San Antonio stifled Golden State 87-79 as a 4½-point home favorite.
Rogers also noted strong postseason trends on the Warriors as underdogs, something they haven’t been familiar with recently. “Golden State hasn’t been listed as a playoff underdog since the opening round of the 2014 playoffs against the Clippers, as the Warriors covered in five of seven opportunities when getting points in that series,” said Rogers.
Not only has Golden State been a great bet as an underdog, it’s also shown the ability to win on the road in the playoffs. Since the Warriors made a return to the national scene in the 2013 playoffs, they’ve won at least one road game in nine straight playoff series. Since they have homecourt for Game 7, Saturday’s matchup will be their last chance to extend that streak.
Oklahoma City usually gives larger margins at Chesapeake Energy Arena and it’s rare to see them lay small spreads at home. As a short home favorite (5 points or less) this season, the Thunder went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in these roles, losses coming to the Cavaliers (115-92) and Celtics (100-85) in the regular season. One of the three wins came in the postseason when Oklahoma City defeated San Antonio in the conference semifinals.
The Thunder are still listed as a favorite (-230) on the adjusted series price while Golden State is listed as a plus-195 underdog. Prior to Game 5, OKC was as high as a 1/3 favorite while the Warriors were close to 5/2 ‘dogs.
The ‘over’ (219½) connected in Game 5 and it was helped with a big fourth quarter (73 points). Despite that result going to the high side, the ‘under’ has gone 5-3 in the eight head-to-head meetings between the pair this season and that includes a 3-2 mark in this series.
Considering the winner of those eight games has averaged 119 points per game, you’d think the ‘over’ would do better but only two of those outcomes were by six point or less.
Oddsmakers opened Game 6’s total at 221 but some action on Friday evening pushed the number down to 220. Oklahoma City (111) and Golden State (109) have team totals for Game 6 in the same neighborhood and knowing that the winner in the first five games has posted big numbers, you could be better suited leaning to that wager on Saturday.
Another betting option for Game 6 that might strike your interest is the first half. In the first five games of this series, the home team has lead not only at the half but at the end of the first quarter as well.
Game 1 - 60-47 (27-21)
Game 2 - 57-49 (27-20)
Game 3 - 72-47 (34-28)
Game 4 - 72-53 (30-26)
Game 5 - 58-50 (25-21)
Along with the visitors struggling early on the road, total bettors can see that the scoreboard operator was working from the get-go in Oklahoma City and that production helped 'over' wagers in both Game 3 and 4.
Oklahoma City is currently laying 1½-points in the first-half of Game 6 while the total is 112.
Do you ride that streak or buck the trend?
Good luck either way!
If necessary, Game 7 will take place on Monday from Oracle Arena.
Western Conference Finals Betting Preview: Warriors at Thunder
By Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder (-3, 220)
The Golden State Warriors managed to keep their historic season alive for at least one more game but will have to win in an arena that wasn’t very friendly earlier in the series if they want to force a seventh game. The Warriors, who lost games 3 and 4 by an average of 26 points, will try to pick off the Thunder in Oklahoma City and even the series when they visit for Game 6 on Saturday.
Golden State, which notched a record 73 wins during the regular season, was down 3-1 in the series before squeezing out a 120-111 victory at home in Game 5 on Thursday. “We’re the reigning champs,” backup point guard Shaun Livingston told the San Francisco Chronicle. “We’ve done this before, and we have to remember that and stay confident, regardless of if they go on a run. It’ll be a lot harder at their place, but we can do it.” The Thunder would prefer to close out the series at home in Game 6 and avoid having to go back to Golden State for a potential Game 7. "Oh, we know we're going back home," star forward Kevin Durant told reporters. "But we can't relax. We've got to keep our foot on the gas, and we've got to play much better. I thought we played extremely hard (Thursday). They didn't outplay us. They didn't outwork us. I thought both teams were in a slugfest (Thursday). So we've got to bring that energy back home.”
LINE HISTORY: The Thunder opened as 2-point home favorites, but bettors didn't think that was enough, with the line moving to -3. The total opened 221 and has been bet down to 220. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State needs the Draymond Green that delivered 11 points, 13 rebounds, four blocks and only two turnovers in Game 5 to make the trip back to Oklahoma City with the team. The Warriors emotional leader was off his game in the two big losses at the Thunder, combining to go 2-of-16 from the field and commit 10 turnovers. “The one thing I can control is how I go out there and fight and battle,” Green told reporters. “That was my mind-set (Thursday): I was coming to a fight. That’s it. I’m going to go out there and do that. If all else fails, I’m going to fight. That’s what I did, and that’ll be my mind-set for the rest of the series.”
ABOUT THE THUNDER: Durant scored 40 points in Thursday’s loss and Russell Westbrook added 31 but the two could not get enough help from anyone else to close out the series. Oklahoma City received a combined 30 points from Andre Roberson and 23 from Dion Waiters in Games 3 and 4 but watched the pair of guards put up a total of six points (all from Roberson) in Game 5. "It's a series right now," Thunder coach Billy Donovan told reporters. "…Travel back, again, try to continually evolve and get better from this. Find ways that we need to improve, things that we need to do, and then get ready to play again for this next one. Get ready to play Game 6."
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 0-5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.
* Over is 4-1 in Warriors last five games following a ATS win.
* Over is 9-2 in Thunder last 11 games following a ATS loss.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of bettors are backing the Thunder to finish off the series, while 63 percent of bettors are on the Over.