NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, May 6th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Utah hasn’t led for one second of a game in this series. Warriors were 14-31 on arc in Game 2, led by 13 at half, jogged to an easy win. Golden State won its first six playoff games by total of 95 points (they’re 0-2 vs spread in this series); they won 9 of last 10 games with Utah- under is 6-1-1 in last 8 series games- over is 4-2 in Golden State playoff games this spring. Utah is 8-2-1 vs spread in its last 11 games overall; they lost two of last three home games in Clipper series. Golden State won/covered its last seven road tilts; last time they didn’t cover a road game was March 11.
Armadillosports.com
Game 3 - Warriors at Jazz
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Warriors are on a quest to return to the NBA Finals for the third straight season, while trying to erase the bad taste in their mouth from blowing a 3-1 lead to the Cavaliers last June. Golden State has yet to lose a playoff game this postseason after sweeping Portland in the opening round and jumping out to a 2-0 advantage over Utah in the semifinals. Can the Warriors keep up this momentum with a trip to Salt Lake City on Saturday?
Before answering the question if Golden State and continue its winning streak, will the Warriors cover a game against the Jazz? In the series opener, Golden State jumped out to a 12-point halftime advantage and even led by 20 with 4:30 minutes in regulation. The Warriors held on for a 106-94 victory, but failed to cash as 13-point favorites as all five Golden State starters scored in double-figures. Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 22 points, but Golden State struggled from long-distance by hitting only 7-of-29 shots.
Golden State teased backers once again in Game 2 by grabbing a quick 18-point cushion after one quarter, but the Jazz rallied back to cut the deficit to 63-57 two minutes into the third quarter. The Warriors went on one of their patented runs by outscoring the Jazz, 12-3 in a three-minute span to regain a 15-point edge. However, Utah crept within 11 points at the 5:47 mark of the fourth quarter and Golden State never managed to get back in covering range by winning, 115-104 as 13 ½-point favorites.
Now the venue shifts to the arena formerly known as the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Vivint Smart Home Arena. Quin Snyder’s squad lost two of three home games in the opening round to the Clippers, while needing a fourth quarter rally in their only home win in that series back in Game 4. Utah has been excellent against the number in the playoffs at 7-2 ATS, including a 6-1 ATS mark in the underdog role.
Underdogs returning home for Game 3 trailing, 2-0 in this season’s playoffs have compiled a 1-2 SU/ATS mark. Despite the two losses, doesn’t mean these teams haven’t been competitive as the Pacers squandered a 25-point lead in a loss to the Cavaliers, while the Blazers blew a 13-point halftime edge in a six-point setback to the Warriors. The lone ‘dog to come through in this situation in the opening round was Memphis, who pulled away from San Antonio in a 105-94 triumph.
The boxing phrase ‘styles make fights’ often gets heard in NBA playoff circles and some pundits believed Utah’s defense-first scheme could slow down Golden State. VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David expected the Jazz to get swept and he’s pressing that prediction.
He explained, “Utah had a great season and it was nice to see them make a return to the playoffs but they were listed as 25/1 underdog to win the series for the reason. The Jazz had the fourth best record in the NBA this season against teams below .500 but against winning teams, they had the third worst record amongst the 16 teams in the playoffs. While I give Utah credit for beating who they’re supposed to beat, it’s fair to say that they’ve been nothing but a bully and we’re watching them get punched in the mouth against Golden State.”
“From a betting perspective, Salt Lake City is considered one of the tougher venues to play at but Utah hasn’t been able to overcome the expectations of the oddsmakers. When listed as home underdogs, the Jazz have gone 6-11 (35%) over the last three seasons and that includes a 2-4 record this season. They have managed to produce a winning mark versus the spread (11-7) over this span and one of those covers came in 106-99 loss against the Warriors in December as 11½-point underdogs. The spread is much shorter for Game 3 and it’s hard to ignore the fact that Golden State has left Utah with victories in six of its last seven trips.”
NBA handicapper Tony Mejia says the Warriors need to put together better finishes to these games, “Garbage time has been just that for Warriors backers over the first two games in the series, as the Jazz have managed to cover in both losses despite not yet holding a lead in the series. The Warriors committed 17 turnovers against a defense missing catalyst George Hill at the point and will be playing both road games without head coach Steve Kerr, who won't travel to Salt Lake City.”
Hill is listed as questionable for Game 3 with a toe injury, but the Jazz have won four consecutive home games with the point guard sidelined dating back to March.
The ‘over’ (206) connected in Game 2 and oddsmakers opened Game 3 with a total of 208 ½ for Saturday’s matchup. David weighed in on the adjusted number.
“This is a tough total to handicap because Utah wasn’t able to dictate the style at Golden State and wound up taking 61 attempts from 3-point land in the first two games, which is much higher than its season average (26). The Jazz caught fire in the middle quarters and that helped get the result ‘over’ on Thursday,” said David.
“I have to believe that Snyder knows he can’t win this way and he’ll try to muck it up at home on Saturday, which is easier said than done against Golden State. It should be noted that Warriors are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs over the last three seasons when they’re held under 100 points. When they bust the century mark, they’ve gone 13-4. With that being said, your side wager could very easily be tied into a total result in Game 3.”
The Jazz have dropped six of their last seven home meetings with the Warriors since the start of the 2013-14 season. The lone victory in this stretch came on January 30, 2015 as Utah upset Golden State as 10-point underdogs, 110-100, while limiting the Warriors to 43% shooting from the floor.
In the previous round, the Warriors knocked off the Blazers in Game 3 at Portland. That victory snapped a five-game skid in Game 3’s in the postseason, as Golden State posted an 0-4 ATS mark as a favorite during that span before outscoring Portland, 65-46 in the second half of Game 3 in the opening round to grab the victory and the cover.
Golden State opened up as a 5½-point favorite, but that number dropped to five on Friday. The total sits between 208 and 208½ at most sports books, which is the highest total in the series. Game 3 tips off at 8:30 PM EST from Salt Lake City and can be seen on ABC.
Saturday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz (+5.5, 209)
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (73-15 SU, 43-42-3 ATS, 36-52-0 O/U): Golden State's hot start in Game 2 was driven by the long-range prowess of All-Star forward Draymond Green, who knocked down four of his five 3-pointers in the first quarter and finished with 21 points before leaving after a scary fall in the fourth quarter. Green, who went largely unguarded on the perimeter with the Jazz trying to cut off Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson beyond the arc, seemed unconcerned about the injury following the contest. "I knew my knee was just locking up a little bit," Green told reporters. "I had it before. A little tweak. It wasn't like this huge sigh of relief because I kind of knew exactly what it was from the jump. But it's always good to know you're OK."
ABOUT THE JAZZ (55-36 SU, 43-44-4 ATS, 46-45 O/U): All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward scored a game-high 33 points in Game 2 after slumping to 12 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 1 and is looking forward to heading back to Utah. "It seems like it's been a while since we've been home," Hayward told reporters. "So definitely excited to play in front of our fans. I know they'll be excited to have us, and we're going to need them. They'll be really important for us. They always bring us a lot of energy." The Jazz are awaiting the return of point guard George Hill, who sat out Game 2 with a toe injury and remains day-to-day.
LINE HISTORY: The Jazz opened as 5.5-point home pups in a must-win Game 3 and that number has been bet down to 5. The total hit the betting board at 209 has dropped a full point to 208
INJURY REPORT:
Warriors - SF Kevon Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).
Jazz - PG George Hill (Questionable, toe), SG Alec Burks (Out Indefinitely, knee)
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.