Sunday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic
The Pacers and Magic just faced each other on Tuesday in Indiana, where Orlando dominated 102-83. You wouldn't think a lot could change in just a few days to turn the tide all the way in the Pacers' favor, but that is exactly the case.
Orlando followed up the win with an eight-point home loss to Boston on Thursday and a humiliating 93-67 road loss at New Orleans on Friday. Furthermore, the victory over Indiana was preceded by a shocking 87-56 road loss to the Celtics.
“Looked like guys didn’t want to play,” Dwight Howard vented after getting routed by the Hornets. “I told them at halftime, 'If you don’t want to play, just stay in the locker room.' It doesn’t make sense for a team we should beat to just demolish us. It hurts me to get out there and play your hardest. I expect everybody to play the same. I’m not calling anybody out by no means because we all have to get better."
Howard, of course, was calling out his teammates...and he could be down a few teammates on Sunday. Ryan Anderson (calf) and Jameer Nelson (jaw) are both listed as questionable.
Pick: Pacers
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets (-6, 204.5)
The Nuggets are 14-5 and trailing only Oklahoma City and Chicago in the overall NBA standings as of Saturday night.
They are positively on fire heading into Sunday's home date with the Clippers. Denver has won six in a row (5-1 ATS), including five on the road and its last two by a combined 44 points. George Karl's squad hammered Sacramento 122-93 on Wednesday and drubbed Toronto 96-81 at home on Friday.
The Nuggets could be without Ty Lawson, who is questionable with a left ankle sprain sustained on Wednesday at Sacramento. He missed Friday's blowout of the Raptors, but that only opened the door for shooting guard Rudy Fernandez. Fernandez played a season-high 33 minutes and poured in a season-high 23 points.
"No, I don't think so; I'm just going day by day to see how it feels," Lawson said on Friday when asked if he could miss up to a week. "It's feeling better than (on Wednesday). We're not missing a beat. Andre (Miller) is a seasoned point guard, one of the best point guards out there."
The Clippers have been up-and-down of late, alternating wins and losses over their last six; resulting in a 3-3 record (3-3 ATS)
Pick: Nuggets
Game of the day: Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
By Covers.com
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (-4.5, 191.5)
THE STORY: One of the most hotly anticipated rematches finally hits the hardcourt Sunday when the Chicago Bulls visit the Miami Heat.
It's the first meeting between the NBA powerhouses since last season's Eastern Conference final, won by the Heat in five decisive games. Not much changed for either team in the offseason, and both clubs are off to predictably strong starts.
The Bulls have the best record in the East, already own a 3.5-game lead in the Central Division and are an impressive 8-3 on the road. Chicago is coming off a 107-100 triumph over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks behind a season-high 34 points from reigning MVP Derrick Rose. Sunday marks the kickoff of a marathon nine-game road trip for the Bulls, who won't play again at the United Center until Feb. 14.
Their first opponent on the trek may be their toughest, as they encounter a Heat squad finally back at full strength after missing guard Dwyane Wade for six games with an ankle injury. He made an impressive return Friday night, scoring 28 points as the Heat rolled past the New York Knicks 99-89 for their third consecutive victory.
LINE: The Heat opened as 4.5-point favorites. The total opended at 191.5.
ABOUT THE BULLS (17-4, 12-9 ATS): With mixed martial arts and other activities taking over the United Center for the next two weeks, Chicago faces the longest road trip any team in the league will endure this season. As for Sunday's East final rematch, Rose says it's no big deal. "It's another game because it's the next game," he said. "We're not worried about all the hype. We know that people are going to try to blow it up to be this championship game and all that. But we're not worried about that.
ABOUT THE HEAT (14-5, 8-11 ATS): Wade wasted no time getting back into the swing of things, hammering home an early dunk that showed everyone his ankle is just fine. "I just tried to be aggressive, after being out for a while, one of the best ways to get your rhythm is to attack the basket," he said afterward. Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra said the club opted to keep Wade out longer than it might have in years past in order to ensure he was completely healthy.
TRENDS:
* Bulls are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.
* Bulls are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Chicago won all three regular-season meetings in 2010-11.
2. Wade, a Chicago native, averages 22.2 points in 26 career games against the Bulls.
3. Chicago is 11-2 against Eastern Conference foes, while the Heat are 10-2.
PREDICTION: Heat 90, Bulls 88
Inside the Paint - Sunday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Matchup of the Day - Chicago at Miami
The Bulls (17-4 straight up, 12-9 against the spread) had the best record in the NBA last season and they’re on pace to repeat that feat. Three of Chicago’s four losses (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) have come on the road, but one did come without the duties of point guard Derrick Rose. The Bulls haven’t been underdogs all season, but they’ll be catching points today at Miami (14-5 SU, 8-11 ATS) and deservingly so. The Heat has outscored opponents by an average of 14 points per game at American Airlines Arena, which has produced an 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS ledger. Dwyane Wade (ankle) returned to action on Friday in the team’s 99-89 home win over New York. Wade looked sharp in his return, scoring 28 points in 32 minutes. Miami is 6-1 SU in its last seven, but just 3-4 ATS and that includes four straight losses versus the number. Make a note that this will be the first of nine straight games on the road for Chicago.
In last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Chicago captured Game 1 at home before the Heat ripped off four straight wins and covers en route to their trip to the NBA Finals. The Bulls put up 103 in their victory, but were held to 75, 85, 93 and 80 in the setbacks as the Heat took Rose out of the offensive equation.
Close Second - L.A. Clippers at Denver
The last game on Sunday’s NBA slate could have gamblers scratching their heads when the Clippers (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) and Nuggets (14-5 SU, 14-5 ATS). However, it looks like an easy winner when you look at the opening line (Denver -6), the tendencies and the matchup. Los Angeles has been awful on the road (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS), with the lone win coming on opening night at Golden State (105-86). Denver has a lot of solid players and its style frustrates everybody it’s faced so far. At home, George Karl’s team is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. Can you believe this team lost to the Hornets and Jazz at Pepsi Center as double-digit favorites? Letdowns certainly happen, but most would assume Denver should get up for this game. The two teams will square off again on Thursday from Staples Center. Total players are looking at a 204 opener and Denver is 8-2 to the ‘over’ with totals listed at 200-plus.
We meet again
Orlando (12-7 SU, 10-9 ATS) and Indiana (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS) are decent teams yet they’re impossible to figure out, especially from a handicapping standpoint. For example, the Magic were embarrassed by the Celtics (56-87) last Monday before rebounding at Indiana (102-83) on Tuesday. Sure enough, Stan Van Gundy’s team follows up the road win by blowing a 27-point lead at home to Boston (83-91) on Thursday. To make matters worse, the Magic get blasted at New Orleans by 26 points (67-93) on Friday. Indiana isn’t as confusing as the Magic but losses to the Pistons and Kings certainly make you think, especially when this team owns road wins over the Celtics, Lakers and Bulls. The one thing that’s impressive about Indiana so far is it hasn’t lost two games in a row. Since it loss on Friday to Boston (87-94), is a win in order tonight?
Road Kill
San Antonio has played nine games on the road this season and its gone 2-7 both SU and ATS, and both of the wins came by exactly two points. On Sunday the Spurs visit Dallas, who’s been a tough out at home (8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS) this season. Despite those tendencies, the Spurs have won and covered four in a row against the Mavs, including a 93-71 decision at home this season on Jan. 5.
While the Spurs have been bad away from home, the Los Angeles Lakers have been worse (1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS). The oddsmakers have taken notice, listing the Lakers as short underdogs to Minnesota (9-10 SU, 12-7 ATS) on Sunday. The Timberwolves have been very competitive this season, evidenced by a pair of wins against both the Mavericks and Spurs. Before you play Minnesota, be aware that the Lakers have won 15 (8-6-1 ATS) in a row over the Wolves, which includes seven straight on the road.
Hot Teams
-- Miami won six of last seven games, but is 0-4 vs spread in its last four away games. Bulls won/covered seven of their last nine road games.
-- Nets won four of their last six games (2-0 as home favorite).
-- Celtics won/covered their last four games.
-- Pacers won six of their last nine games (3-2 as road dog).
-- Mavericks won/covered eight of their last nine home games.
-- Minnesota won five of last seven games, is 6-2-1 vs spread last nine.
-- Nuggets won/covered five of their last six games.
Cold Teams
-- Raptors lost nine of their last eleven games (7-6 as road dog).
-- Cavaliers lost five of last six games, but covered four of last five on the road.
-- Orlando lost four of its last six games; they were outscored by 55 points in their last six quarters.
-- Spurs lost seven of eight road games (1-2-1 as road dog).
-- Lakers are 1-6 away from the Staples Center.
-- Atlanta covered once in its last six road games. New Orleans lost nine of last ten games, but covered last five.
-- Clippers are 1-3 away from Staples Center, losing by 25-8-29.
Wear and Tear
-- Bulls: 3rd game/five days. Heat: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Raptors: 4th game/6 nites. Nets: 3rd game/5 days.
-- Cavaliers: 4th game/6 nites. Celtics: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Pacers: 4th game/6 nites. Magic: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Spurs: 3rd game/5 nites. Mavericks: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Lakers: 2nd nite in row after two nites off. Timberwolves: 3rd game in five nites.
-- Hawks: 3rd game/5 nites. Hornets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Clippers: Had last two nites off. Nuggets: 3rd game/5 nites.
Totals
-- Six of last seven Chicago games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Toronto games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Boston home games stayed under the total. Six of last eight Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Last four Indiana games all went over the total. Six of Orlando's last seven games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight San Antonio road games went over the total.
-- Last three Laker games went over the total.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Atlanta games.
-- Three of last four Clipper games went over the total.
CHICAGO (17 - 4) at MIAMI (14 - 5) - 1/29/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 68-50 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 63-38 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road games in January games since 1996.
CHICAGO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-4 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-5 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TORONTO (6 - 14) at NEW JERSEY (7 - 13) - 1/29/2012, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 80-103 ATS (-33.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-3 against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-3 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEVELAND (7 - 11) at BOSTON (9 - 9) - 1/29/2012, 6:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 8-5 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANA (12 - 6) at ORLANDO (12 - 7) - 1/29/2012, 6:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 4-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 7-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN ANTONIO (12 - 8) at DALLAS (12 - 8) - 1/29/2012, 6:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-5 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-6 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA LAKERS (11 - 9) at MINNESOTA (9 - 10) - 1/29/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 49-63 ATS (-20.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 102-64 ATS (+31.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (14 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 15) - 1/29/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=91 points/game since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 152-109 ATS (+32.1 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA CLIPPERS (10 - 6) at DENVER (14 - 5) - 1/29/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 381-454 ATS (-118.4 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games in January games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 138-181 ATS (-61.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
DENVER is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-3 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Chicago's last 18 games when playing Miami
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
CLEVELAND vs. BOSTON
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cleveland's last 13 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Boston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Cleveland
INDIANA vs. ORLANDO
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Orlando is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games at home
TORONTO vs. NEW JERSEY
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
Toronto is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New Jersey's last 13 games
New Jersey is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 10 games when playing Dallas
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Dallas's last 17 games
LA LAKERS vs. MINNESOTA
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
LA Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing LA Lakers
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 13 games
LA CLIPPERS vs. DENVER
LA Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Hoop Trends - Sunday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Bulls are 10-0 ATS (13.6 ppg) since December 26, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a game in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Lakers are 0-18-1 OU (-14.1 ppg) since May 27, 2008 after a road loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
PLAYER BASED TREND OF THE DAY:
The Spurs are 11-0 OU (9.4 ppg) since January 29, 2003 on the road after a loss on the road in which Tim Duncan shot worse than 33% from the field.
CHOICE TREND:
The Raptors are 0-13 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since January 10, 2010 as a dog after losing the previous matchup in which Demar Derozan scored fewer than 10 points.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Hawks are 11-0 OU (14.2 ppg) since January 13, 2008 with at most one day of rest off an overtime game as a favorite.
CHICAGO at MIAMI
CHICAGO: 38-19 ATS off home game
MIAMI: 18-7 Over off 3+ ATS losses
TORONTO at NEW JERSEY
TORONTO: 9-20 ATS revenging home loss
NEW JERSEY: 18-8 Over off BB road games
CLEVELAND at BOSTON
CLEVELAND: 96-49 Under on Sunday
BOSTON: 17-31 ATS off ATS win
INDIANA at ORLANDO
INDIANA: 16-5 Under revenging double digit home loss
ORLANDO: 20-7 Under on Sunday
SAN ANTONIO at DALLAS
SAN ANTONIO: 17-6 Over as underdog
DALLAS: 18-5 ATS off home win by 10+
LA LAKERS at MINNESOTA
LA LAKERS: 22-9 Under as an underdog
MINNESOTA: 24-11 Under if line is +3 to -3
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA: 11-23 ATS vs. non-conference
NEW ORLEANS: 9-1 ATS vs. Southeast Division
LA CLIPPERS at DENVER
LA CLIPPERS: 6-1 ATS vs. Denver
DENVER: 5-1 Under vs. Clippers