What Bettors Need to Know: NBA Christmas Day
By Covers.com
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (-5, 193.5)
THE STORY: Two of the NBA's most storied franchises enter the shortened 2011-12 season in vastly different mindsets. The Boston Celtics look to squeeze the last bit of playoff glory out of their aging Big Three, while the New York Knicks carry high aspirations thanks to a full season of Carmelo Anthony and the arrival of center Tyson Chandler. The northeast U.S. rivals meet Sunday afternoon at Madison Square Garden in the first game of the NBA season. The Celtics have had a rough offseason already, learning they'll be without talented forward Jeff Green due to heart issues. His absence carves into the depth of a Boston club already dealing with a heel injury to forward Paul Pierce that will likely keep him out of Sunday's game. Pierce (34), Kevin Garnett (35) and Ray Allen (36) will be relied upon to lead the Celtics to one final postseason push before the club decides what direction to head in next. New York is led by Anthony, Chandler and sensational power forward Amar'e Stoudemire, who join forces in what will be one of the most imposing frontcourts in the league.
ABOUT THE CELTICS (2010-11: 56-26): Boston intends to dip into its bench more than in seasons past due to a condensed schedule that could play havoc with its older players. Green's loss hurts even more in that regard, but head coach Doc Rivers remains confident about his group of reserves led by offseason acquisition Brandon Bass and bruising forward Chris Wilcox. One weakness may be at center, where the club opens with brittle veteran Jermaine O'Neal as its starter.
ABOUT THE KNICKS (2010-11: 42-40): The acquisition of Chandler from the defending NBA-champion Dallas Mavericks was met with rabid optimism by a majority of Knicks fans who believed the team needed a third star to join Anthony and Stoudemire. While Chandler won't turn the Knicks into instant title contenders, his rebounding (9.4 per game last season) and shot blocking (1.1) will make a formidable frontcourt even more impressive.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The Celtics swept the Knicks in the first round of last year's playoffs. Boston also won the regular-season series by a 4-0 count.
2. Rivers plans to use Garnett at center much more than he has in the past. "I think that at this point in his career it's not a bad spot for him," he said.
3. The Knicks signed veteran PG Baron Davis even though he will likely miss half the season with a herniated disk in his back. Davis was waived by the Cleveland Cavaliers last week.
TRENDS:
* Celtics are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings in New York.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
PREDICTION: Knicks 98, Celtics 95
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (+4.5, 189)
THE STORY: If it wasn’t embarrassing enough for the Miami Heat to lose in the NBA Finals after bringing in LeBron James and Chris Bosh for the specific purpose of winning a championship, now they have to start over by watching the Dallas Mavericks raise the championship banner. The Mavericks, who downed the Heat in six games last June for their first ever NBA title, will hold a ceremony before hosting Miami in the Christmas Day opener. James, who was loudly criticized for his performance in that series, reportedly spent the summer and extended break working on a post game and trying to recover some of the swagger that was absent in the fourth quarter of nearly every finals game. Miami president Pat Reilly was busy as well, locking coach Eric Spoelstra up with a long-term contract and adding veterans Shane Battier and Eddy Curry to the roster. Dallas has seen a few of its championship pieces leave town - most notably center Tyson Chandler - but traded for Lamar Odom and expects to defend its title.
ABOUT THE HEAT (2010-11: 58-24): James, who averaged 26.7 points in the 2010-11 regular season, slumped to 17.8 in the finals and often looked timid with the ball in the fourth quarter. He committed six turnovers in the decisive Game 6. But after playing the villains all of last season, James, Bosh and Dwyane Wade are no longer alone in the “super team” game and should have some of the pressure off. Wade is expected to assume more of the ball-handling responsibilities with Mike Bibby gone.
ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (2010-11: 57-25): No one expected Dallas to cruise through the playoffs last season. But Dirk Nowitzki turned in a performance for the ages, averaging 27.7 points and 8.1 rebounds in the playoffs while shooting 94.1 percent from the free throw line and 46 percent from beyond the arc. The Mavericks will miss Chandler on the inside and did not get any younger when they lost J.J. Barea and brought in Odom and Vince Carter.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Dallas’ projected starting lineup has an average age of 34, with top reserves Jason Terry and Odom each over 32.
2. Nowitzki recorded a double-double in four of the last five games against Miami last June.
3. James has averaged 26.9 points in 16 career regular season games against the Mavericks.
TRENDS:
* Heat are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Dallas.
* Heat are 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 13-3-2 ATS in the last 18 meetings.
PREDICTION: Mavericks 100, Heat 94
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5, 185.5)
THE STORY: The Los Angeles Lakers swirled through the headlines during the compacted free agency/training camp period for all the wrong reasons. They were controversially stymied by the commissioner in their pursuit of Chris Paul and sent away Lamar Odom to a top rival for nothing more than a trade exception. But nothing has the potential to impact the Lakers’ season more than Kobe Bryant’s wrist injury. The superstar was hurt in the first preseason game and diagnosed with a torn ligament. Medical predictions have him out at least 2-3 weeks, but this is the same player who taught himself to shoot left-handed a few years ago so that he could stay in the lineup with a right shoulder injury. Bryant is considered day-to-day and has participated in practice. He should be ready for Christmas Day, when Los Angeles opens its season by hosting the Chicago Bulls. While the Lakers look like they are on the way down, the Bulls are trending upward. Reigning MVP Derrick Rose just signed a five-year contract extension and Chicago looms as the logical rival to the Miami Heat in the East for years to come.
ABOUT THE BULLS (2010-11: 62-20): Chicago posted the best record in the NBA during the 2010-11 regular season but ended up falling in the Eastern Conference finals to the Heat. Exposed in that series was the Bulls’ lack of a second perimeter scorer to take the pressure off Rose. In to fill that gap is former All-Star Richard Hamilton, who signed a three-year deal after being released by the Detroit Pistons.
ABOUT THE LAKERS (2010-11: 57-25): It was widely reported that Los Angeles had re-made its team with a trade for Paul a few weeks ago, sending out Pau Gasol and Odom in the proposed deal. When David Stern squashed the trade, the Lakers were left standing with an aging team that had been swept out of the playoffs by the Dallas Mavericks. Josh McRoberts is the only significant new piece added to the roster.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Bryant is averaging 24.7 points in 26 career games against the Bulls.
2. Rose collected 23 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists on Christmas Day last season but the Bulls fell at the New York Knicks, 103-95.
3. The Lakers are starting out under new coach Mike Brown, who took over for legendary boss Phil Jackson over the summer.
TRENDS:
* Under is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.
* Underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
PREDICTION: Bulls 94, Lakers 85
Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder (-8, 197.5)
THE STORY: Expectations are high in Oklahoma City as the Thunder enter the season as one of the favorites to reach the NBA Finals. That quest begins in earnest Sunday night as the Thunder entertain the Orlando Magic in the season opener for both teams. Oklahoma City rode one of the youngest rosters in the league to a berth in the Western Conference finals a season ago - and with the core of the team still intact, a conference title may not be out of the question. "Chemistry is a big part of winning," says Thunder superstar Kevin Durant. "We continue to grow as a group. We didn't make any really big changes. We stayed together." The same can be said to some degree for the Magic, though that may not remain the case for long. Rumors continue to swirl around the possible future destination of franchise center Dwight Howard, who has waffled over whether he's interested in signing long-term with Orlando or heading elsewhere. That uncertainty may torpedo the team's chances of competing for the East title, though Howard's talent alone will win them more than a handful of games throughout the season.
ABOUT THE MAGIC (2010-11: 52-30): Howard's concerns about the quality of the roster being built around him haven't been addressed - at least, not to his satisfaction. The team opted to amnesty guard Gilbert Arenas, then dealt Brandon Bass to Boston for fellow big man Glen Davis. The rest of the core cast remains the same, with Jameer Nelson and Jason Richardson manning the backcourt and Howard joined up front by Hedo Turkoglu and either Davis or Ryan Anderson.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (2010-11: 55-27): Oklahoma City head coach Scott Brooks doesn't want to mess with a good thing. As a result, fans should expect to see the exact same starting five the Thunder trotted out at the end of last season. Durant is joined by versatile point guard Russell Westbrook, forming a sensational 1-2 scoring punch. Add in shot-blocking specialist Serge Ibaka and top-flight sixth man James Harden, and the Thunder should challenge for the West crown.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The teams split a pair of meetings last season, with the home team prevailing each time.
2. Durant has averaged just 21 points in seven career games against the Magic, his lowest total against any NBA team.
3. Howard averaged 39.5 points, 16.5 rebounds and four blocks in two games against the Thunder a season ago.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
PREDICTION: Thunder 113, Magic 103
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors (+5, 210.5)
THE STORY: Twenty years after the retirement of Magic Johnson, “Showtime” is back in vogue on the West Coast. Only this time it looks to be domain of the Los Angeles Clippers, who are trying to escape the shadow of the mighty Los Angeles Lakers with the stunning trade for superstar point guard Chris Paul. The move to acquire Paul – which came after the NBA blocked a trade that would have sent him to the Lakers – has left Clippers fans with visions of the postseason in their heads, not to mention a nightly highlight reel with dunk-meister Blake Griffin on the receiving end of Paul's alley-oop passes. “We are trying to establish ourselves in the entire league,” Griffin said. "The Lakers are popular for a reason. Sixteen championships. Two in the last three years. It’s not about us versus them. It’s about us versus everybody.” The Clippers kick off the season with a visit to Golden State on Christmas night.
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (2010-11: 32-50): Los Angeles did a nice job of putting pieces around Paul, signing veteran G Chauncey Billups and F Caron Butler – both former All-Stars – and matching a pricey offer sheet (by the Warriors) to retain C DeAndre Jordan. Billups must make the transition to shooting guard and Butler needs to show he’s healthy after having knee surgery. Griffin was the first rookie to earn an All-Star spot since 2003 and looks primed for a monster season.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (2010-11: 36-46): For a team that will rely heavily on its vaunted backcourt, Golden State absorbed a double whammy in the past week. Leading scorer Monta Ellis was named in a sexual-harassment lawsuit by a former team employee and point guard Stephen Curry suffered a sprained of his surgically repaired ankle. That’s more than 42 points per game of concern for rookie coach Mark Jackson. F David Lee is the best threat among an unimposing front line.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Jackson has zero coaching experience, but the former point guard played 17 seasons in the NBA.
2. Los Angeles has made only four postseason appearances in franchise history, the last coming in the 2005-06 season.
3. The teams have split the past 10 meetings. The Warriors have scored at least 121 points in four of their wins.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
* Clippers are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Clippers are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Golden State.
PREDICTION: Clippers 106, Warriors 102
Sunday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (4.5, 189.5)
Get your popcorn ready for Christmas Day. Among five blockbuster games kicking off the 2011-12 NBA season is a rematch of last year's finals between the Heat and Mavs.
For champion Dallas, Tyson Chandler is gone and Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and Shawn Marion are one year older. However, Lamar Odom is on board and so is Vince Carter. Chandler's absence will be damaging in the long run, but it should not be too much of a factor in one game against an opponent that lacks any kind of dominant center.
The Heat generally have their team intact from last season, plus they acquired valuable role player Shane Battier and big man Eddie Curry. However, both Battier (quadriceps) and Curry (hip flexor) are questionable for Sunday's contest along with Eddie House (knee). Jason Terry (illness) is questionable for Dallas.
The Mavericks will raise their championship banner prior to the game, but Miami will remain in its locker room during the ceremony.
“I don’t know what I would do,’’ Dirk Nowitzki said. “Maybe I would watch it as motivation. Either way, that is not really about the Miami Heat. That's about us and our fans and what we did last year.But then we’ve got to forget about that and play a good game.’’
The Mavericks will, and while this season as a whole may be about the favored Heat, Nowitzki is correct in saying Sunday will be about the Mavs.
Pick: Mavericks
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers (2, 186)
You know it's been a tough offseason when the least of your concerns is losing two in a row to the Los Angeles Clippers.
But that's life for the Lakers, who tried to trade away Odom and Pau Gasol and in a deal for Chris Paul. David Stern banned the trade, and L.A. then sent an unhappy Odom to Dallas for basically nothing.
What the Lakers are left with is a frustrated Paul Gasol, an injured Kobe Bryant, and a suspended Andrew Bynum. Bryant will probably play on Sunday against the Bulls, but he tore ligaments in his right wrist during the preseason and is certainly less than 100 percent. Bynum is suspended for five games for last season's elbow to the Mavericks' J.J. Barea.
Oh yeah, and the Lakers also have someone named Metta World Peace on their team.
"I don't know what else could happen," new head coach Mike Brown said. "You see all the changes here and at times it can catch you off guard.... We still have a good opportunity to accomplish our ultimate goal at the end of the season, and that's why maybe I'm not in much of a panic mode as what some people may be around here. Let's let it play out."
Meanwhile, the Bulls are coming off a season in which they compiled an NBA-best 62-20 record and they appear to firing on all cylinders. Reigning MVP Derrick Rose averaged 12 points and seven assists in very limited minutes during two preseason victories and Carlos Boozer dropped 24 points in Chicago's second game against Indiana.
Pick: Bulls
Christmas Day Action
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The start of the NBA season is finally here after the lengthy lockout delayed the debut for over seven weeks. There is no shortage of storylines to get this fast-paced, 66-game campaign going with five intriguing matchups on Christmas Day. We'll begin in the Big Apple with a meeting of two old rivals and a score to settle from this past April's first round of the playoffs.
Celtics at Knicks (-4½, 194)
Boston bounced New York in the opening round of last season's playoffs with a four-game sweep, including two blowout wins at Madison Square Garden. The re-tooled Knicks look to return the favor, while the aging Celtics will likely be without forward Paul Pierce, who is doubtful with a heel injury.
New York made one of the big free-agent splashes last summer with the signing of Amare Stoudemire, but the focus turned to the Knicks in February when Carmelo Anthony was dealt to New York from Denver. However, the Knicks didn't do their backers a service by going 12-15 SU/ATS in the final 27 regular season games with Anthony in the lineup, including a 6-10 ATS mark as a favorite. New York was busy in this short offseason by waiving veteran point guard Chauncey Billups, while solidifying the middle with the signing of former Mavericks' center Tyson Chandler and picking up point guard Baron Davis off waivers (Davis is out with a back injury).
The Celtics cashed seven of 11 times last season as a road underdog, including outright victories over the Thunder, Heat, Lakers, and Spurs. Boston may have some depth issues past Pierce being likely out, as swingman Jeff Green is set to miss the entire season as he will have surgery on his heart. Doc Rivers' club has won eight straight games in the series, while going 3-1 ATS at New York in this span.
Heat (-4½, 189½) at Mavericks
The rematch everyone is waiting for takes place at American Airlines Center as Dallas opens up its title defense against Miami. The Mavs won their first ever championship in six games over LeBron James and the Heat in June, while capturing the final three games of the series. Meanwhile, the Heat burned up the headlines all of last season with the "Big Three" of James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, as Miami is expected to return to the NBA Finals this June.
The Heat lost three of four road meetings in Dallas last season, including a 106-95 defeat in November to fall to 9-8 through 17 games. Miami rebounded to win 12 consecutive games, but its winning streak went up in flames with a 98-96 home loss to Dallas in late December. The first four games of the Finals were all relatively low-scoring with both teams failing to reach 100 points. Dallas eclipsed the 100-point mark in each of the last two victories, while cashing the 'over' in Games 5 and 6.
Erik Spoelstra's club owned a 21-13 ATS ledger as a road favorite last season, but lost in the opener at Boston as one-point 'chalk,' 88-80. Dallas put together a 1-4 ATS record as a home underdog last season, but three of those losses came with Dirk Nowitzki out of the lineup. However, the Mavs stepped up in the playoffs as a 'dog with an 8-2-1 ATS mark, although none of those games came in the Lone Star State.
Bulls (-4, 186½) at Lakers
The mighty has fallen fast as the Lakers aren't even the talk of their own town heading into the opener against Chicago. The Purple and Gold lost head coach Phil Jackson to retirement, while the anticipated Chris Paul deal fell through before training camp. Making matters even worse, veteran swingman Lamar Odom was traded to rival Dallas and superstar Kobe Bryant tore ligaments in his right wrist. Bryant said he will play against the Bulls, who look to prove their for real after last year's deep run in the playoffs.
Chicago finished last season as the top seed in the Eastern Conference at 62-20, while owning the best record in the entire league. The Bulls failed to make the NBA Finals after getting knocked out by the Heat in five games of the Eastern Conference Finals, but Chicago's team stayed in tact around the nucleus of Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer, and Joakim Noah. Chicago put together a solid 26-15 record away from the United Center, while going 18-14 ATS as road 'chalk.'
The Lakers will have issues in the frontcourt with center Andrew Bynum suspended for the first four games of the season following a flagrant foul committed in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals at Dallas. Los Angeles was not listed as a home underdog last season, as the Lakers went 32-14 SU and 16-30 ATS record at Staples Center, but 13 of those ATS losses came as double-digit favorites.
What else to watch for:
The Thunder is expected to do big things again this season after making the Western Conference Finals last June as Oklahoma City hosts Orlando. Dwight Howard begins this shortened season in a Magic uniform after the trade rumors of him going potentially to the Lakers or Nets. The Magic finished with 50 wins or more for the fourth straight season, but couldn't get out of the first round after falling to the Hawks in six games. Oklahoma City and Orlando split a pair of meetings last season as the Thunder is listed as an eight-point home favorite.
The new-look Clippers wrap up the night with a trip to the Bay Area to take on the Warriors at Oracle Arena. Los Angeles claimed the biggest prize of the short offseason with the acquisition of point guard Chris Paul from New Orleans. The Clips opened up as 2½-point underdogs when these lines were released earlier this month, but with the Paul trade and L.A. going 2-0 in the preseason, that line has swung to the Clips laying five points. The Warriors will feature their dynamic duo of young scorers in the backcourt, as Monta Ellis (shoulder) and Stephen Curry (ankle) are listed as probable after getting hurt in the preseason.
BOSTON (61 - 30) at NEW YORK (42 - 44)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 7-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI (72 - 31) at DALLAS (73 - 30)
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 61-40 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in December games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 7-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 8-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO (71 - 27) at LA LAKERS (61 - 31)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in road games in December games since 1996.
CHICAGO is 88-120 ATS (-44.0 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
CHICAGO is 56-41 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO (54 - 34) at OKLAHOMA CITY (64 - 35)
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 36-51 ATS (-20.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS (32 - 50) at GOLDEN STATE (36 - 46)
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 32-48 ATS (-20.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 5-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New York's last 9 games at home
New York is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games when playing at home against Boston
MIAMI vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Dallas is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
CHICAGO vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Chicago's last 15 games when playing LA Lakers
Chicago is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Chicago
LA Lakers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing Chicago
ORLANDO vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando's last 9 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Orlando is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games when playing at home against Orlando
LA CLIPPERS vs. GOLDEN STATE
LA Clippers are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games
Golden State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
BOSTON at NEW YORK
BOSTON: 23-25 ATS as a road underdog
NEW YORK: 22-11 OVER as a home favorite
MIAMI at DALLAS
MIAMI: 9-1 ATS in road games in December games
DALLAS: 10-22 ATS in home games in non-conference games
CHICAGO at LA LAKERS
CHICAGO: 56-41 ATS in all games
LA LAKERS: 16-30 ATS in home games
ORLANDO at OKLAHOMA CITY
ORLANDO: 36-51 ATS in all games
OKLAHOMA CITY: 15-5 ATS against Southeast division opponents
LA CLIPPERS at GOLDEN STATE
LA CLIPPERS: 32-48 ATS in road games
GOLDEN STATE: 59-36 OVER in home games in December games