Sunday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons (8, 184)
Barring a stunning collapse, the Chicago Bulls are on their way to wrapping up the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference.
Holding a 3.5-game lead over Miami with only seven to play, the Bulls can work on ironing out any wrinkles as they prepare to visit one of their favorite opponents, the Detroit Pistons, on Sunday night. Chicago has beaten the Pistons 14 consecutive times, including three double-digit victories this season.
Derrick Rose showed the effects of missing 13 of the previous 14 games, scoring a season-low two points on a horrid 1-for-13 shooting performance against Miami. Per usual, the Bulls still found a way to win, showing why they are 16-7 without their start point guard in the lineup.
Backup C.J. Watson had 16 points and nine assists and Kyle Korver had another exceptional effort off the bench. Korver has scored a combined 31 points in his last two games, drilling eight of 11 3-point attempts.
Detroit was playing its best ball of the season, winning 17 of 30 games, until going into a tailspin in the past 10 days and losing four of five.
Pick: Bulls
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings (-2.5, 207.5)
The Sacramento Kings are a team without a home. Word came out Friday that the agreement reached last month to keep the team in Sacramento with a new arena had fallen through, leaving the team’s future up in the air.
That, plus a season-high seven-game losing streak, could have the fans in a sour mood when the Kings host the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday. The Blazers have dropped three of four.
Portland does not have any arena problems but it does appear to have given up on the season by opting to have LaMarcus Aldridge undergo hip surgery. The Blazers started out hot but sold off a pair of starters and dismissed coach Nate McMillan at the trade deadline, signaling to many that the team was looking toward the future.
J.J. Hickson, who was let go by the Kings last month, has stepped into Aldridge’s spot in the starting lineup and is averaging 14.0 points for his new team.
Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have played under and this total looks high.
Pick: Under
MIAMI (41 - 17) at NEW YORK (31 - 28) - 4/15/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 78-64 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) second half of the season this season.
NEW YORK is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DALLAS (34 - 26) at LA LAKERS (38 - 22) - 4/15/2012, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 8-6 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-7 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORONTO (21 - 39) at ATLANTA (35 - 24) - 4/15/2012, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 8-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO (45 - 14) at DETROIT (22 - 37) - 4/15/2012, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 72-58 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games this season.
CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points this season.
CHICAGO is 45-31 ATS (+10.9 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 8-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 11-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ORLANDO (34 - 25) at CLEVELAND (20 - 38) - 4/15/2012, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 66-80 ATS (-22.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 47-67 ATS (-26.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 6-4 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 8-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOSTON (35 - 25) at CHARLOTTE (7 - 51) - 4/15/2012, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 78-100 ATS (-32.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) on Sunday games this season.
BOSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against Southeast division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after allowing 85 points or less this season.
CHARLOTTE is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHARLOTTE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points this season.
CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games in April games over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
CHARLOTTE is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
CHARLOTTE is 11-31 ATS (-23.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
CHARLOTTE is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
CHARLOTTE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after scoring 85 points or less this season.
CHARLOTTE is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
CHARLOTTE is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 5-4 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PORTLAND (28 - 32) at SACRAMENTO (19 - 41) - 4/15/2012, 6:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 7-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 8-2 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MEMPHIS (35 - 24) at NEW ORLEANS (17 - 42) - 4/15/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 30-20 ATS (+8.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
MEMPHIS is 88-64 ATS (+17.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 45-31 ATS (+10.9 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 7-3 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 6-4 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSTON (32 - 27) at DENVER (32 - 27) - 4/15/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 77-40 ATS (+33.0 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 85-44 ATS (+36.6 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
HOUSTON is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
DENVER is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New York is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New York's last 15 games
DALLAS vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Dallas's last 19 games
Dallas is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
LA Lakers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when playing at home against Dallas
LA Lakers are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games when playing at home against Dallas
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 16-2-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
PORTLAND vs. SACRAMENTO
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Sacramento is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
Sacramento is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
TORONTO vs. ATLANTA
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 17 games when playing at home against Toronto
ORLANDO vs. CLEVELAND
Orlando is 18-6-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Cleveland
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Orlando
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
BOSTON vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Boston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing Boston
Charlotte is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Boston
MEMPHIS vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games on the road
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
HOUSTON vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Houston's last 23 games
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games at home
Miami at New York
Miami: 9-1 Under off home division win
New York: 21-9 Under off SU win
Dallas at LA Lakers
Dallas: 0-4 ATS on Sunday
LA Lakers: 4-8 on Sunday
Toronto at Atlanta
Toronto: 13-5 ATS revenging 10+ pt loss
Atlanta: 12-29 ATS at home if favored last game
Chicago at Detroit
Chicago: 19-10 ATS in road games
Detroit: 9-28 ATS at home off division loss by 10+
Orlando at Cleveland
Orlando: 1-10 ATS Away off BB division losses
Cleveland: 13-4 Under revenging road loss
Boston at Charlotte
Boston: 8-1 ATS Away after allowing 85 pts or less
Charlotte: 11-31 ATS w/ revenge
Portland at Sacramento
Portland: 0-8 ATS off BB ATS wins
Sacramento: 8-2 Under vs. Portland
Memphis at New Orleans
Memphis: 28-9 ATS playing on back to back days
New Orleans: 12-2 Under at home off SU dog win at home
Houston at Denver
Houston: 21-8 Under as road dog of 6 pts or less
Denver: 24-14 Under as favorite
Inside the Paint - Sunday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Toronto at Atlanta: Just when we thought the Raptors decided to pack it in, they come out with an 84-79 victory against Boston on Friday as 7 ½-point home underdogs. The club now heads to Atlanta, who’s been playing much better of late. The Hawks are 5-2 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven and the two losses were by a combined seven points. Atlanta has won six straight (4-2 ATS) against Toronto and oddsmakers opened the home squad as a healthy 9 ½-point favorite for this spot. The ‘over/under’ is hovering between 184 and 185 points. The Raptors are missing two key players in Jose Calderon (eye) and Andrea Bargnani (calf), which has hurt the offense. In turn, the inconsistency has helped the ‘under’ notch a 7-1 mark in the last eight games for Toronto. Make a note that Atlanta is on a 5-2 run to the ‘over.’
Chicago at Detroit: Possible let down for the Bulls here after they just beat the Knicks (98-86) and Heat (96-86) in their last two games. The status of point guard Derrick Rose is going to be up in the air again but that shouldn’t matter against the Pistons, who were blown out by the Bucks (97-113) on Friday. This series has been one-sided recently, with Chicago winning the last 14 matchups (12-2-1 ATS) against Detroit, including three this season by double digits. Total players should note that Detroit is on a 7-1 run to the ‘over.’ Chicago has been installed as a 9-point road favorite, while the total is 184.
Orlando at Cleveland: Dwight Howard (back) won’t be in the lineup tonight, which means Orlando will be chucking early and often from 3-point land. Despite missing the big man, the Magic are listed as six-point road favorites over Cleveland. That line seems rich to lay on an Orlando team that is 2-7 both SU and ATS in its last nine games. However, Cleveland is off a win last night against Washington (98-89) and it hasn’t strung together back-to-back wins since early March. Also, this will be the third game in three nights (see link above) for the Cavaliers, who are 4-13 on zero days rest this season.
Boston at Charlotte: The Celtics will also be playing their third game in three nights as well but does it really matter when you face Charlotte? Boston rebounded from the Toronto loss on Friday to beat New Jersey (94-82) last night. Fading the C’s on the road with no rest has been a good bet but again, this is the Bobcats folks! Michael Jordan’s team has dropped 15 straight (4-14 ATS) and the last five were by margins of 20, 28, 13, 24 and 23 points. It’s embarrassing to watch this team play and more embarrassing if you grab the points with them too. The best bet here is a pass, especially with the Celtics’ scheduling.
Portland at Sacramento: Is it a coincidence that the Kings are crumbling both on and off the court. The latest news out of Sacramento is that a new arena won’t be built and after watching the current product, it makes you wonder why they would. The Kings have some nice pieces to build around but the lack of chemistry has watched this team drop seven straight and eight of nine, both straight up and against the spread. Portland appears to be regrouping for next season as well, which could make this game a shootout tonight. The total opened at 207 and jumped to 208. The home team has won and covered all three meetings in this series this season and the ‘under’ has cashed in all three too.
Memphis at New Orleans: The Grizzlies currently sit in the fifth spot of the Western Conference but it has a legit shot to earn the No. 3 seed for the playoffs. Memphis closes the season with six games against non-playoff teams and the other matchup is versus Orlando, who probably won’t have Dwight Howard playing. The Grizzlies are giving five points tonight and they already beat New Orleans twice this season. The two teams will hook up again on Wednesday from Memphis. The Hornets have covered four straight (3-1 SU) at home, the lone loss coming to the L.A. Lakers (91-93). A win by the home team wouldn’t be surprising but VI handicapper Antony Dinero believes the Grizzlies’ depth will be an issue for the Hornets. “Tony Allen returned from his facial injury and O.J. Mayo stayed hot with 20 points in 24 minutes to help the Grizzlies roll past Utah last night. With Zach Randolph still coming off the bench, Memphis is the league's deepest team and should take advantage of that against the consistently banged-up Hornets,” explained Dinero. Make a note that Memphis is 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS when playing on zero days rest this season.
Houston at Denver: These two teams are tied for the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference, which means one will play the Thunder in the first round, while the other gets San Antonio. Tonight’s battle will be the first of a home-and-home set with the latter coming tomorrow in Houston. After returning from an impressive four-game road set (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS), the Rockets dropped two straight at home to the Jazz (91-103) and Suns (105-112). Should we expect Houston to bounce back on the road tonight? Denver has won four straight (2-2 ATS) at home but George Karl’s team inability to close games could have you scratching your head. On Friday, the Nuggets came up empty to the Kobe-less Lakers (97-103) and on Wednesday, they nearly coughed up a big lead in a win over Minnesota (113-107). The visitor has won and covered both of the first two meetings this season. The total has gone 1-1.
Miami at New York
Miami: 9-1 Under off home division win
New York: 21-9 Under off SU win
Dallas at LA Lakers
Dallas: 0-4 ATS on Sunday
LA Lakers: 4-8 on Sunday
Toronto at Atlanta
Toronto: 13-5 ATS revenging 10+ pt loss
Atlanta: 12-29 ATS at home if favored last game
Chicago at Detroit
Chicago: 19-10 ATS in road games
Detroit: 9-28 ATS at home off division loss by 10+
Orlando at Cleveland
Orlando: 1-10 ATS Away off BB division losses
Cleveland: 13-4 Under revenging road loss
Boston at Charlotte
Boston: 8-1 ATS Away after allowing 85 pts or less
Charlotte: 11-31 ATS w/ revenge
Portland at Sacramento
Portland: 0-8 ATS off BB ATS wins
Sacramento: 8-2 Under vs. Portland
Memphis at New Orleans
Memphis: 28-9 ATS playing on back to back days
New Orleans: 12-2 Under at home off SU dog win at home
Houston at Denver
Houston: 21-8 Under as road dog of 6 pts or less
Denver: 24-14 Under as favorite
Hot Teams
-- New York won/covered all nine home games under Woodson.
-- Dallas won its last three games, by 10-9-3 points.
-- Hawks won six of last seven at home, covered four of last six.
-- Cavaliers covered six of their last seven games.
-- Celtics won five of last six games; they're 4-6-1 as a road favorite.
-- New Orleans covered its last seven home games. Grizzlies won five of their last six games.
-- Nuggets won their last four home games.
Cold Teams
-- Miami lost four of its last five road games.
-- Lakers covered only twice in last dozen home games.
-- Raptors lost four of their last five games.
-- Detroit lost four of last five games, covered three of last nine. Bulls lost three of their last five games.
-- Orlando lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Bobcats are 0-5 vs spread in last five games; their last win was March 17, 16 games ago.
-- Sacramento lost its last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread). Trailblazers lost three of their last four games.
-- Rockets lost last two games, by 12-7 points, but they've won last four road games.
Wear-and-Tear
-- Heat: 3rd game/4 days. Knicks: 4th game/6 days.
-- Mavericks: 3rd game/4 nites. Lakers: 3rd game/5 days.
-- Raptors: 3rd game/5 nites. Hawks: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Bulls: Had last two nites off. Pistons: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Magic: 2nd game/5 nites. Cavaliers: 3rd in row, 5th game/6 days.
-- Celtics: 3rd in row, 9th game/12 days. Bobcats: 9th game/13 days.
-- Blazers: 3rd game/5 nites. Kings: 6th game/9 nites.
-- Grizzlies: 10th game/14 nites. Hornets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Rockets: 3rd game/5 nites. Nuggets: 3rd game/5 nites.
Totals
-- Five of last six Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-0-2 in last five Dallas games.
-- Six of last seven Toronto games stayed under total; six of Atlanta's last seven games went over.
-- Four of last five Chicago road games stayed under total. Seven of last eight Piston games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Orlando games went over total.
-- Four of last five Charlotte games went over the total.
-- Last three Sacramento home games stayed under total.
-- Last three Memphis games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Houston road games stayed under total.
Back-to-Back
-- Cavaliers are 2-3 vs spread if they won the night before.
-- Celtics are 3-8-1 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Memphis is 6-3 vs spread if it played on road the night before.
Armadillosports.com