Sunday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (-3.5, 191)
Carmelo Anthony scored a league-best 30.6 points in the 13 straight games Amare Stoudemire missed with a bulging disc, as the Knicks went 9-4. When Stoudemire returned Friday, Anthony looked out of sorts and shot 5 for 13 with four turnovers.
As Stoudemire works off the rust and Melo adjusts to fewer touches, New York could continue to struggle.
Now the Knicks visit Atlanta, which has won three straight, including a 97-92 home win over depleted Boston on Friday. Joe Johnson scored 30 on 11-of-18 shooting, but the Hawks played down to the level of the Celtics’ scrubs.
“We were just careless,” forward Josh Smith said. “When you get geared up to play a team with the high potential of Boston and you come out right before the game see that [their starters] are not going to play, I don’t know if it does something mentally to you but … it makes it unpredictable.”
Atlanta won’t have any trouble getting up for New York. And the Hawks are on the verge of clinching homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Pick: Hawks
Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons (-5, 187.5)
The Raptors have been blown out in their last two games by average of 23 points.
But the Pistons haven’t been any better. They’ve dropped seven of nine, including Thursday’s 91-80 loss to Minnesota in which they had a 1-for-20 shooting stretch in the first half.
Neither team has broken 90 points in its last two outings. The Pistons rank 28th in scoring, and the Raptors rank 27th. Toronto point guard Jose Calderon (10.5 ppg, 8.8 apg) is expected to remain sidelined with his eye injury.
The under is 8-3 in Toronto’s last 11 games.
Pick: Under
Thunder at Lakers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (1, 200)
THE STORY: With just a few games left in the regular season slate, the Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder are still fighting for position in the West. The Thunder sit one-half game behind the San Antonio Spurs for the top spot while the Lakers sit in third, one-half game ahead of the Los Angeles Clippers. Kobe Bryant’s return from a seven-game absence wasn't much help for Los Angeles in a blowout loss to the Spurs Friday.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (46-17, 35-28 ATS): Oklahoma City is a game back of San Antonio in the loss column and sits on the wrong side of the tiebreaker, so the No. 1 seed is getting closer to a long shot with three games left. Sunday marks the final road contest for the Thunder, who own the best road record in the West at 21-11.
Oklahoma City has had a relatively easy slate in April, with only two of its last eight games against teams that have clinched playoff berths. Of course, the Thunder dropped both of those to the Clippers. They have yet to lose to the Lakers this season, taking a 100-85 decision at Staples Center on Feb. 23 and winning at home, 102-93, on March 29.
ABOUT THE LAKERS (40-24, 27-37 ATS): Los Angeles has missed two opportunities to help out the Thunder in the last week, dropping a 112-91 decision at home to San Antonio Tuesday and falling at the Spurs, 121-97, Friday. Bryant, who had sat out due to a left shin bruise, went 7 for 12 from the floor for 18 points in 29 minutes.
“I’m back now,” Bryant told reporters after the game. “It took me a half. The second half it felt like I was back in a good rhythm.”
In Bryant’s absence, Los Angeles had gotten strong play from Metta World Peace in addition to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. World Peace is averaging 16.3 points over the last nine games, up from his season average of 7.6.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Pacific.
* Lakers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The Thunder have won in each of their last two trips to Staples Center
2. Bryant has averaged 24.9 points in 55 career games against the Oklahoma City franchise.
3. Kevin Durant is at the same 24.9 points in 16 career games against the Lakers.
PREDICTION: Thunder 106, Lakers 97
NEW YORK (33 - 30) at ATLANTA (38 - 25) - 4/22/2012, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 80-66 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
NEW YORK is 41-28 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 6-4 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-4 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA CITY (46 - 17) at LA LAKERS (40 - 24) - 4/22/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 137-110 ATS (+16.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 72-52 ATS (+14.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 26-37 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games this season.
LA LAKERS are 31-47 ATS (-20.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
LA LAKERS are 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
LA LAKERS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 24-37 ATS (-16.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-6 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 9-6 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SACRAMENTO (20 - 43) at CHARLOTTE (7 - 55) - 4/22/2012, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 26-37 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in April games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHARLOTTE is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
CHARLOTTE is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) after scoring 85 points or less this season.
CHARLOTTE is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 3-1 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 4-0 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TORONTO (22 - 41) at DETROIT (23 - 40) - 4/22/2012, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-4 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (33 - 31) at MIAMI (45 - 18) - 4/22/2012, 6:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEVELAND (21 - 41) at SAN ANTONIO (46 - 16) - 4/22/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 39-53 ATS (-19.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 29-9 ATS (+19.1 Units) second half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 297-245 ATS (+27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GOLDEN STATE (22 - 41) at MINNESOTA (26 - 38) - 4/22/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 7-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ORLANDO (36 - 27) at DENVER (35 - 28) - 4/22/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 18-41 ATS (-27.1 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
ORLANDO is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 27-40 ATS (-17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
DENVER is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
DENVER is 129-177 ATS (-65.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-0 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ORLEANS (20 - 43) at LA CLIPPERS (39 - 24) - 4/22/2012, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 76-51 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 7-2 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 7-2 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK vs. ATLANTA
New York is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against New York
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. LA LAKERS
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 6 games at home
LA Lakers are 16-5 SU in their last 21 games at home
TORONTO vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games
Toronto is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Toronto
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
HOUSTON vs. MIAMI
Houston is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing at home against Houston
Miami is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
SACRAMENTO vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Sacramento is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Charlotte is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
CLEVELAND vs. SAN ANTONIO
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
San Antonio is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Cleveland
GOLDEN STATE vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
ORLANDO vs. DENVER
Orlando is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Orlando is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
NEW ORLEANS vs. LA CLIPPERS
New Orleans is 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 6 games at home
LA Clippers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
New York at Atlanta
New York: 24-10 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less
Atlanta: 5-20 ATS at home after playing as a home favorite
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers
Oklahoma City: 10-0 Under after playing BB games as a road favorite
LA Lakers: 6-1 ATS off 3+ games allowing 45 or less rebounds
Sacramento at Charlotte
Sacramento: 19-8 Over off a home loss by 10+ points
Charlotte: 8-18 ATS off BB games scoring 90 points or less
Toronto at Detroit
Toronto: 21-12 Over with a total of 180 to 189.5 points
Detroit: 10-1 ATS at home off a home loss by 10+ points
Houston at Miami
Houston: 49-21 ATS away off 3+ ATS losses
Miami: 5-18 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less
Cleveland at San Antonio
Cleveland: 3-11 ATS off BB home games
San Antonio: 14-3 ATS with a total of 200+ points
Golden State at Minnesota
Golden State: 8-0 ATS away off 3+ losses
Minnesota: 2-14 ATS at home vs. Pacific Division opponents
Orlando at Denver
Orlando: 18-41 ATS away off 3+ Overs
Denver: 15-5 ATS off BB games allowing 100+ points
New Orleans at LA Clippers
New Orleans: 3-13 ATS after winning 4 of their last 5 games
LA Clippers: 17-5 Under at home playing with 2 days rest
Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Antony Dinero
VegasInsider.com
New York at Atlanta
The Hawks nearly played the part of extremely rude host on Friday night.
Boston showed up, hat in hand, with Doc Rivers resting future Hall of Famers Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in addition to the injured Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen and Mickael Pietrus. Enjoy the gift, Boston basically said, opting to put health and rest for its team over homecourt advantage in a first-round series that will likely open next weekend.
Atlanta nearly returned the thoughtful gesture as if it were a wedding gift given more than one year later.
Despite Joe Johnson's 30 points, the Hawks nearly fumbled away a substantial edge in the fourth quarter and held on for a 97-92 win. New York was having its own issues, stumbling to a 98-90 loss in Cleveland that made the outlook for catching Orlando for the No. 6 seed bleak. The Knicks are left to jockey for the final two positions in the Eastern Conference playoff picture with Philadelphia, with whoever finishes No. 7 likely to draw the Miami Heat.
Of greater importance to former Hawks coach Mike Woodson and Knicks nation is developing chemistry and cohesion with Amar'e Stoudemire returning to the starting lineup. The Knicks forward returned from a back ailment on Friday with some spring in his step, but was unable to spark his surging team or co-exist effectively with Carmelo Anthony, who went back to his conventional small forward spot. Look for that to be the focus in front of what should be a packed house at Atlanta's Philips Arena that's likely to include a vocal contingent of Knicks fans.
Woodson, who coached the Hawks from 2004-10, was elevated to interim head coach on Mar. 14 upon Mike D'Antoni's dismissal and has guided the team to a playoff appearance. He's already lost, 100-90, in his return to Atlanta on Mar. 30 thanks to unexpected bench production from Willie Green (8-for-9, 20 points) helping offset a 36-point night from Anthony and a career-high 25 points from Georgia Tech product Iman Shumpert, who thrived in his return to the area.
Stoudemire was out for that game but had 10 rebounds in the only other meeting between these teams, a Jeremy Lin-led 99-82 rout at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 22 that seems like forever and a day ago. Because that result was produced by D'Antoni's system and came in the midst of Linsanity, there isn't much to take from that first encounter.
Expect the keys to this one to include stopping Jeff Teague from getting the Hawks transition game going, Shumpert and Landry Fields attempting to limit Joe Johnson, Stoudemire getting re-acclimated to a major role and Josh Smith and Anthony going at one another. Zaza Pachulia remains out for Atlanta, but Erick Dampier could return to help Jason Collins deal with Tyson Chandler in the post, giving the Hawks a fighting chance on the boards.
Atlanta opened as a 3½-point favorite but the number is sitting at 2 ½-points at most shops. The total is 191.
Oklahoma City at L.A. Lakers
In a huge game for both teams, the L.A. Lakers hope to prevent the Oklahoma City Thunder from sweeping all three encounters in this lockout-shortened season.
Not only is this a matter of pride for Laker nation, but also a must-win if they want to keep the Clippers behind them in the race for the Pacific Division and the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs. OKC is in its own race for the top spot with San Antonio, which holds the tie-breaker should the teams end up with identical records.
Kobe Bryant returned from resting a shin injury that resulted in two weeks of inactivity, but struggled to make an impact against the Spurs in a 121-97 loss on Friday. Bryant, who pledged to be a more effective teammate after watching Andrew Bynum and Ramon Sessions thrive with greater responsibility, took few shots and early and picked his spot, ultimately finishing 7-for-12 from the field for a team-high 18 points.
His effort against the Thunder this season hasn't been as efficient, nor his shot selection as judicious. In the Feb. 24 loss in Oklahoma City, Bryant shot 7-for-24 and came up empty in clutch situations despite not having to face Thunder stopper Thabo Sefolosha. OKC's top perimeter defender was back for the Mar. 30 meeting at Staples Center and helped hold Bryant to 7-for-25 shooting in a game where Andrew Bynum's 10-for-15 night and a 30-18 first-quarter lead wound up wasted.
Los Angeles natives Russell Westbrook and James Harden look forward to coming home and thriving against the team they grew up watching, so count on an emotional effort from both, especially given what's at stake. Bynum has been on a tear, so another point of emphasis is going to be how he fares against Kendrick Perkins and the NBA's top shot-blocker, Serge Ibaka.
Another interesting story line revolves around Derek Fisher, who received a standing ovation when he checked in off the Thunder bench last month. Often the defensive scapegoat against elite athletes like Westbrook, Fisher has found a more suitable role knocking down perimeter looks and leaving the playmaking to Harden in OKC's second unit.
Given the ties that bind them and the likelihood these teams run into each other in next month's Western Conference semifinals, count on plenty of messages being sent in what should be a physical showdown. Oklahoma City has earned the rebounding edge in both games and imposed its will. Count on the Lakers looking to reverse that trend at home as they ratchet up their intensity with the playoffs looming.
The Thunder are listed as one-point road favorites over the Lakers, while the total is hovering between 199 and 200 points.