NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday 4/29

Spurs-Jazz Outlook
By Antony Dinero
VegasInsider.com

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8 Utah Jazz

Series Price: San Antonio -2000, Utah +1200

Series Format: San Antonio, 2-2-1-1-1

Skinny: Despite a lockout-shortened season, San Antonio won 50 games again. That they managed to do that for an NBA-record 13th consecutive time will probably be spun into a negative by naysayers hanging on to the tired take that this team should be collecting Social Security, not another top seed in the mighty Western Conference.

Because Coach of the Year favorite Gregg Popovich was so cautious with his veteran key components down the stretch, the Spurs enter this first-round series completely healthy. That wasn't the case last year against Memphis, when an injured Manu Ginobili gutted through a debilitating elbow injury and his performance and team suffered for it. Although he's missed more games than any other Spur this season, Ginobili has been healthy the last two months and has scored 20 or more four times this month, a sign he's hitting his groove at the perfect time.

The Jazz can't be happy about that development, but considering the streamers that fell from the sky when they clinched this playoff berth with Tuesday's elimination of Phoenix, this particular group is just happy to be part of the postseason party. After missing out when Jerry Sloan resigned, Deron Williams was dealt and Tyrone Corbin dealt with a learning curve, Utah is again an above-average squad.

Al Jefferson ended a personal six-year drought between playoff appearances and will be the key to any realistic thoughts of an upset. He'll have to overcome the defense of Tim Duncan, whose impact at that end of the floor isn't what it used to be but remains formidable due to his length and savvy.

Tony Parker and Devin Harris have had playoff battles earlier in their careers when the Jazz point guard was still in Dallas, so look for that matchup to hotly contested. Harris has the size and speed to make Parker work and must have a great series if Utah is to have any shot.

No one can touch San Antonio's depth, which has been flexed all month as Popovich has juggled personnel to keep everyone fresh. It does help that the Jazz have gotten Josh Howard and Raja Bell back from major injuries this week. Youngsters Gordon Hayward, DeMarre Carroll and Alec Burks have been putting in work on the wing, but there's no question Corbin is likely to ride with his playoff-tested veterans once they knock some of the rust off.

Head-to-Head Matchups: San Antonio won three of four meetings with the Jazz, with the only loss coming on the second part of a home-and-home where Popovich opted to rest his Big 3, who had combined for 64 points and 24 rebounds to key a 114-104 win the night before.

Ginobili has only played in two of the meetings, but scored 23 points -- one off his season-high -- both times. Parker has gotten to the free-throw line against Utah more than against any other team he's seen this season, excelling by knocking down 27-of-28. Duncan is averaging 15 points and 10.7 rebounds against the Jazz, participating in all three wins.

Jefferson played in all four meetings with the Spurs and averaged 18 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks, but tag-team partner Paul Millsap has really struggled, averaging only 11 points and 7.8 boards. He's just 5-for-15 in San Antonio (5 ppg, 5 rpg) and must step up his production there to keep the Jazz from digging themselves an early hole. Hayward averaged 10 points per game over the four meetings, but hit only 14 of 37 shot attempts.

Betting Notes: Count on being forced to lay heavy if riding the Spurs at home. The geezers have been lights out at AT&T Center, going 28-5 SU and 24-8 ATS. San Antonio has won and covered each of its last 11 games. Conversely, Utah has struggled outside Salt Lake City down the stretch and finished 14-19 ATS on the road. Prior to that April 9 loss, San Antonio had won six consecutive meetings, including three at Energy Solutions Arena. Four of the last six encounters have gone over the posted total.

Series Outlook: Jefferson has it in him to put the Jazz on his back and win a couple of games in this series, but this team isn't as skilled or deep as the Grizzlies were in San Antonio's 1-8 matchup a year ago. It really helps the Spurs that they have two full days before the series starts and then again prior to Game 2, which means they'll be extremely well-rested when the series shifts to the Utah. As a result, this is likely to be a short stint for the Jazz unless everyone plays over their heads. Considering they would need Bell or Howard to emerge as an ex-factor and neither enters the postseason in game shape, the deck is stacked against them. The Spurs should be able to wrap this series up in five games or less.

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Hawks-Celtics Outlook
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

No. 4 Boston Celtics vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks

Series Price: Boston -200, Atlanta +160

Series Format: Atlanta, 2-2-1-1-1

Skinny: Since 1988, Boston and Atlanta have met twice in the playoffs with both series going the distance. In 1988, the Hawks took a 3-2 advantage with a rare win at Boston Garden but couldn't close the deal in Game 6 at the old Omni. In Game 7, Larry Bird and Dominique Wilkins put on a show for the ages in the fourth quarter and overtime with the Celtics winning a thriller by two points.

Twenty years later, the top-seeded Celtics faced a 37-45 Hawks team that was young and in the postseason for the first time in many years. Boston blew Atlanta out twice in Beantown and appeared to be on its way to dealing out broom treatment. However, the tide turned at Philips Arena with the Hawks winning Games 3 and 4. They forced a Game 7 by winning Game 6, but the Celtics cruised in all four home games and went on to win the NBA title.

Since giving the Celtics fits four years ago, the Hawks have won first-round series three consecutive seasons. They beat the Heat in '09, the Bucks in '10 and the Magic last year. Atlanta got swept in the second round in '09 and '10, but it took the Bulls to six games in the second round last season. Gamblers should also keep in mind that the Hawks haven't advanced to the Eastern Conference finals since the franchise moved to Atlanta.

Boston won the Atlantic Division to garner the East's No. 4 seed but by virtue of a better overall record, Atlanta will enjoy homecourt advantage when the series tips off Sunday night. But the Hawks are going to be without their two best big men in Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia. Horford (torn pectoral muscle) hopes to return in Round 2 if Atlanta advances. As for Pachulia (sprained foot), he's expected to return at some point against Boston but is 'out' for Game 1 at least.

Doc Rivers's team is also dealing with a key injury. Ray Allen's sprained ankle has him 'questionable' for Game 1 and has kept him on the sidelines for the Celtics' last eight games. Allen averages 14.2 points per game and is one of the league's best pure shooters.

Boston has won 16 of its last 22 games and is 15-5-2 ATS during this span. Meanwhile, Atlanta has won five of its last six games despite the absence of Pachulia. The lone loss was a one-point defeat against the Knicks.

Atlanta's perennial All-Star guard Joe Johnson is playing extremely well, averaging 23.8 points per game in the last four contests. During the regular season, Johnson posted his best shooting percentages from 3-point land (38.8%) and the free-throw line (84.9%) since joining the Hawks.

But the key for Atlanta is Josh Smith, who enjoyed his finest season as a pro. Smith averaged 18.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.7 blocked shots and 1.4 steals per game. With his length, athleticism and versatility, Smith creates matchup problems for the Celtics.

Without Horford and Pachulia, the C's will key on Johnson and Smith and that means Atlanta will need production from guards Kirk Hinrich and Jeff Teague. They'll also need Marvin Williams to help out on the boards.

In 2008, Boston was all about The Big Three of Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. But these days, Rajon Rondo is the catalyst and second-year guard Avery Bradley (7.6 PPG) has taken on a larger role. Bradley has scored in double figures in seven of Boston's last eight games.

Rondo averages 11.9 points, 11.8 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game. With the possible exception of San Antonio's Tony Parker, Rondo gets into the lane and makes things happen off the dribble better than any other point guard in the league.

Pierce (19.4 PPG) remains a dynamite player and is still the guy that Rivers looks to at crunch time. On the flip side, KG has clearly lost a step (or two).

Head-to-Head Matchups: These clubs played three nail-biters this year with Boston prevailing in two of the three meetings. On March 19, the Celtics won a 79-76 decision at Atlanta as two-point road underdogs. Allen scored a team-high 19 points for the winners, while Rondo tallied 10 points, 13 assists and six steals. The 155 combined points easily stayed 'under' the 182-point total.

The Hawks played without Horford, Willie Green and Marvin Williams in this game due to injuries. Johnson scored a game-high 25 points.

In the second encounter at Boston, the Celtics captured an 88-86 win in overtime. However, the Hawks took the cash as 2½-point road underdogs, and the 'under' (180) hit again despite the extra session. Rondo led the winners with a triple-double, scoring 10 points, pulling down 10 rebounds and dishing out 20 assists. Garnett finished with 22 points and 12 rebounds, while Brandon Bass also had a double-double with 21 points and 10 boards.

In the losing effort, Smith had 20 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and a pair of blocked shots. Teague finished with 21 points and six assists.

The third meeting on April 20 can't really be taken into account because the Celtics rested KG, Rondo, Pierce and Allen. Atlanta won by a 97-92 count but Boston covered as a 10½-point underdog. The 189 points went 'over' the 179½-point tally. Johnson scored a game-high 30 points, while Bradley had a career-high 28 in defeat.

Betting Notes: Most betting shops are listing Atlanta as a 1½-point favorite with the total in the 178-179 range. The Hawks are minus-125 on the money line, while the Celtics are available for a plus-105 return (risk $100 to win $105).

The 'over' is on a 10-1 run in Atlanta's last 11 home games to improve to 19-13-1. When the series moves to Boston, bettors should note that the 'under' is 19-13-1 for the C's at home, 19-14 for the Hawks on the road.

Series Outlook: When will Pachulia be able to play and be effective? Will Ray Allen be 100 percent from the series opener and beyond? Can Jeff Teague and Kirk Hinrich knock down perimeter shots to take the pressure off of Josh Smith and Joe Johnson?

With homecourt advantage and a healthy Pachulia, I'd pick the Hawks to win the series. But with the unknowns around Pachulia, I've got to predict the Celtics to win in six games behind the play of Rondo.

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets

Game 1 is scheduled to tip Sunday at 7:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

Boston's odds to win the NBA title are 15/1 per Sportsbook.com. The Hawks own 60/1 odds.

Gamblers backing the 'over' for Atlanta's regular-season win total (35½) cashed tickets despite the fact that Al Horford missed most of the season.

Grizzlies-Clippers Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

No. 4 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers

Series Price: Memphis -200, Los Angeles +170

Series Format: Memphis, 2-2-1-1-1

Skinny: The 4/5 matchup in the Western Conference is extremely intriguing between a pair of up and coming squads. The Grizzlies made plenty of noise last spring with a run to Game 7 of the conference semifinals before bowing out to Oklahoma City. The flavor of this season is L.A.'s other team, as the Clippers finished with their best winning percentage since 2006, while being led by Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.

Paul was destined to be traded to the Lakers after the lockout, but commissioner David Stern negated the potential three-team deal that also included the Rockets. Instead, the former Hornets' All-Star became a Clipper right before Christmas, which was no doubt a present for Vinny Del Negro. The Clippers started the season at 16-7, while invigorating a fan base that needed something to get excited about it following years of disappointment.

Since losing at Staples Center to the Clippers on March 24, the Grizzlies put together a 17-4 run to close out the regular season and the fourth seed in the Western Conference. Memphis finished the campaign with six consecutive wins, but only one of those is headed to the playoffs (Orlando). However, the Grizzlies stumbled to a 1-8 ATS record down the stretch, including a 1-4 ATS mark at FedEx Forum.

Head-to-Head Matchups: The home favorite and 'under' combination hit in all three meetings, as each game between these two teams was decided by seven points or more. The Clippers claimed the first contest in Southern California on January 26 as 3 ½-point favorites, 98-91 on throwback night at Staples Center. The Grizzlies shot 35% from the field, while the Clippers knocked down nine treys in the win.

Nearly two months later, Los Angeles turned the trick again, but the Clippers did in blowout fashion, 101-85. The Clips jumped out to a 16-point advantage after one quarter, as Griffin (20) and Paul (19) led Los Angeles to an easy victory as two-point favorites. Zach Randolph scored 14 points against his former squad, but the Grizzlies allowed at least 48% shooting from the floor for the second time in two meetings.

Memphis grabbed the final meeting of the season at FedEx Forum on April 9 by a 94-85 count. The Grizzlies cruised to an 11-point halftime lead before the Clippers rallied to cut the deficit to three points in the final minute. Lionel Hollins' squad put together an 8-2 run at the end to cash as 4 ½-point favorites, as the Clippers' offense was held in check by shooting 40% from the field.

Betting Notes: The Grizzlies closed the season at 23-5 SU and 13-15 ATS as a home favorite, while winning each of their last 11 games in this role. Memphis turned into a terrific 'under' team as a road underdog, cashing in 15 of 21 opportunities. The Clippers compiled a 8-10-1 ATS mark when receiving points on the highway, while hitting the 'over' in seven of the last 10. Los Angeles turned in a 5-6 ATS record as a home favorite of six points or less, but two of those victories came against Memphis.

Series Outlook: Obviously few people will believe that any 4/5 series will end in a sweep. There's no way to predict that this series ends in four games, but it's hard to believe that a team with very few good outside shooters like Los Angeles can win. The Grizzlies proved last season they can advance at least a round in the Western Conference, as Memphis will advance in six games.

What Bettors Need to Know: Sunday's NBA Playoffs Action
By Covers.com

Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs (-10.5, 207)

THE STORY: The Utah Jazz survived a spirited battle with the Phoenix Suns to secure the eighth and final playoff berth in the Western Conference. The reward: a first-round meeting with the powerhouse Spurs beginning with Game 1 Sunday afternoon in San Antonio. Utah was one of the hottest teams to close out the regular season - winning five in a row - but will be in tough against a Spurs club that ended the campaign with 10 consecutive victories despite giving their key players plenty of rest.

ABOUT THE JAZZ (36-30, 34-31-1 ATS): Utah surprised many by emerging as one of the top offensive teams in the league this season, averaging nearly 100 points per game. The Jazz's balanced attack was led by veteran power forward Al Jefferson, who averaged 19.2 points and 9.6 rebounds to earn his way back to the playoffs after a seven-year absence. Utah will also lean heavily on swingman Gordon Hayward, who capitalized on extra playing time to average 14.1 points in 34 games after the All-Star break.

ABOUT THE SPURS (50-16, 42-20-4 ATS): San Antonio was one of only two teams to reach the 50-win plateau this season, marking what could be head coach Gregg Popovich's most impressive accomplishment to date. Dealing with an aging star in Tim Duncan and the absence of swingman Manu Ginobili for a major portion of the season, the Spurs still posted the second-best scoring average in the NBA (103.7 ppg). At the heart of the offensive explosion was point guard Tony Parker, who averaged 18.3 points and a career-best 7.7 assists.

TRENDS:

* Over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in San Antonio.
* Favorite is 21-7-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.
* Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
* Road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Jazz are 3-11-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in San Antonio.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Spurs won three of four regular-season meetings, though the Jazz prevailed 91-84 in their last head-to-head encounter April 9.

2. San Antonio has been eliminated from the playoffs in the opening round in two of the last three seasons.

3. Jefferson averaged 6.1 points in just over 19 minutes in his only other playoff experience as a 20-year-old with the Boston Celtics in 2005.

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5, 202)

THE STORY: This will be the sixth postseason series betweenthe Lakers and Denver Nuggets with Los Angeles prevailing in each one, mostrecently in the 2009 Western Conference finals. The Lakers earned the thirdseed in the West despite theatrics they have grown accustomed to, culminating ina seven-game suspension for Metta World Peace’s vicious elbow. He still mustsit out six games. Denver has the ability to push the ball and limited KobeBryant to 17.7 points in the four-game series this season.

ABOUT THE NUGGETS (38-28, 36-30 ATS): While the quickness of Ty Lawson willbe a strength for Denver, forwards Danilo Gallinari and Al Harrington could bekey in the absence of World Peace. The Nuggets also have a rising rookie thatis big enough to bother the Lakers’ inside game. Kenneth Faried led all rookiesin rebounding (7.7) and the self-title Manimal said he is up to the task. “Kill. We're not friends. Don't talkto me,” Faried told The Denver Post of his game strategy.

ABOUT THE LAKERS (41-25, 28-38 ATS): Los Angeleslacks depth and has had trouble on the road, but Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasolhave proved too much for the Nuggets in the regular season, where the Lakerswon three of four. And there is no better clutch player in the league than KobeBryant, who finished second in scoring and should be well rested despite shintroubles. With World Peace out and Matt Barnes nursing a sprained ankle, theLakers will use Devin Ebanks at small forward.

TRENDS:

* Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings.
* Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Los Angeles.
* Nuggets are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.
* Nuggets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Nuggets are 15-0 when scoring atleast 60 points in the first half.

2. Los Angeles has won 17 of 21 postseason games against the Nuggets.

3. When the Lakers have home-courtadvantage in the opening round, they have a 34-2 series record.

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks (-1.5, 178.5)

THE STORY: It could be the last major playoff run for Boston’s “Big Three” as the Celtics open the postseason against the host Atlanta Hawks on Sunday. Forwards Paul Pierce (34) and Kevin Garnett (35) and guard Ray Allen (36) are getting longer in the tooth and more prone to injury breakdowns. The fourth-seeded Celtics have the playoff experience edge, but the fifth-seeded Hawks appear capable of dispatching of the Celtics. Boston won two of the three regular-season meetings.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (39-27, 34-30-2 ATS): Boston likely won’t know if Allen can play until close to game time. The veteran guard has been bothered by an injured right ankle and missed the final nine games of the regular season. Pierce has sensed Allen’s distress. “It’s always frustrating when you’re sitting out,” Pierce said. “Ray is one of the great competitors in the league. I’m sure it eats at him every single day he can’t practice and every single game he can’t play.” Pierce left the regular-season finale with a sprained left big toe but will be ready for the Hawks. Point guard Rajon Rondo led the NBA in assists at 11.7 per game.

ABOUT THE HAWKS (40-26, 36-28-2 ATS): Atlanta didn’t decline in the fashion some surmised after a season-ending injury to All-Star center Al Horford. A prime reason was that forward Josh Smith stepped up to average a career-best 18.8 points to go with 9.6 rebounds. Smith accepted more responsibility as a team leader as well. “This was definitely a year where I was productive,” Smith said. “With the injury to Al, I had to step up as a scoring leader and being more of a vocal leader. Basically, it was just showing everybody what I always had in my game.” Point guard Jeff Teague will be a pivotal figure as the player who will be defending Rondo.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games as underdogs.
* Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Conference Quarterfinals games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Atlanta took Boston to seven games before falling in the first round of the 2008 playoffs and the Celtics went on to win the NBA title.

2. Boston guard Avery Bradley averaged 15.1 points over the final 15 regular-season games and will start whether or not Allen is available.

3. Hawks forward Zaza Pachulia (foot) is expected to miss the opener.

Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5, 184)

THE STORY: Reaching the postseason has not been the norm for the Los Angeles Clippers, who are in the playoffs for the first time since 2005-06. They have won just one playoff series in four appearances since moving to Los Angeles for the 1984-85 season but come into this one having set a franchise record for victories this season. Memphis earned the fourth seed with a victory over Orlando in the season finale, has won a franchise-record 11 consecutive home games and is hosting a playoff series for the first time.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (40-26, 33-33 ATS): Chris Paul came to Los Angeles in the biggest preseason trade in recent memory and is a major reason the Clippers ended a six-year playoff drought. The All-Star point guard enters the playoffs with a mild groin strain that kept him out of Friday’s practice. He insists he will play in the opener. The Clippers will miss the playoff experience of Chauncey Billups; the 15-year veteran had season-ending surgery in February for a torn Achilles’ tendon. Blake Griffin will play in his first playoff series and will have to fight through Memphis’ big front line.

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (41-25, 29-37 ATS): Memphis is not one of the flashiest teams in the NBA but has perhaps the best perimeter defense in the league. Led by Tony Allen, Mike Conley and Rudy Gay, the Grizzlies led the league in forced turnovers at 17.1 per game. All-Star Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will test the Clippers inside. “They want to make every possession a dogfight,” Clippers guard Randy Foye said. “They want to grind it out. They want you to take the shot they want you to take, not the shot that you want to take. That's what makes it tough.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Memphis.
* Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games as favorites.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Clippers won the season series 2-1. Memphis leads the overall series 33-32.

2. Griffin is the only player in the league averaging at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and three assists.

3. Paul is first in the league in steals (2.53) while Conley is second (2.19).

NBA Preview

Jazz @ Spurs -- San Antonio caught fire at end of regular season, winning last ten games (9-0-1 vs spread) with last eight going over total. Spurs won six of last seven games vs Utah, winning last three played here by 9-15-10 points. Both sides have only one playoff series win in last three years, but Spurs have won four titles under Popovich. Five of last seven series games played here went over. Utah won last five games, is 3-0-1 vs spread in its last four games as an underdog.

Nuggets @ Lakers -- LA won its first round series in six games in each of last three years; they beat Nuggets in six in Western final three years ago, and Nuggets haven't won playoff series since, losing in first round last two years (3-8 overall). Denver lost three of four against Lakers this year, losing by 3-6 in their two visits here. Nuggets won/covered six of last seven games overall. Lakers covered their last three games when the favorite, after failing to cover 12 in row as favorite before that.

Celtics @ Hawks -- Underrated Atlanta won its first round series in each of last three years, winning in 7-7-6 games, then losing in second round all three years. Celtics won their last three first round series, last couple years in five games each- they won two of three against Atlanta so far this year, with three games decided by total of 10 points. Boston is 4-2 in last six games vs Hawks. Atlanta won five of its last six games overall, with their last eight games all going over the total.

Clippers @ Grizzlies -- LA sat banged-up PG Paul (leg) in last game and blew home court in this round; this is Clippers' first shot at playoffs in six years and just second since 1997. Memphis upset the Spurs LY in first round, its first playoff appearance in five years. Clippers won four of last five series games, with home team winning five of last six series games, including all three this season. LA lost five of last seven visits to Memphis- they lost three of last four games overall. Grizzlies come in on a six-game winning streak.

Armadillosports.com

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Utah at San Antonio

The San Antonio Spurs have gone from a stifling defensive team to one that wins with it's offense. Heading into it's series against Utah, no team has been hotter than the Spurs who have won ten straight (9-0-1 ATS) netting 114.7 points/game and 21-of-23 (17-3-3 ATS) scoring 109.0 per contest. Plenty of reason to back San Antonio Sunday. Spurs have been solid at the AT&T Center in San Antonio posting a 28-5 (25-7-1 ATS) mark on the season and they'll be putting a 5-0 SU/ATS home streak on the line a span that has seen them score a whopping 114.4 per contest. This venue has been an absolute house of horrors for Utah as Spurs have posted a sparkling 19-2 record last twenty-one hosting Jazz with a smart 14-6-1 mark at the betting window. If that were not enough, Jazz have not done well on the road this season (11-21, 13-18-1 ATS) and enter just 1-15 (3-12 ATS) on the highway giving up >100 points/game. The betting market has San Antonio 10.5 point favorite a number Spurs have handled at home as they're 6-2-1 ATS as DD home faves this season.