Heat-Pacers Outlook
By Antony Dinero
VegasInsider.com
No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 3 Indiana Pacers
Series Price: Miami -900, Indiana +625
Series Format: Miami, 2-2-1-1-1
Game 1 - Sunday, May 13
Game 2 - Tuesday, May 15
Game 3 - Thursday, May 17
Game 4 - Sunday, May 20
Game 5* - Tuesday, May 22
Game 6* - Thursday, May 24
Game 7* - Saturday, May 26
Skinny: Miami treated the Pacers like a D-League squad the first two times they crossed paths back in January and February. Never mind that Indiana has consistently been among the East's best since the lockout-shortened season tipped off, the Heat made sure they sent the message that they weren't looking for any company atop a conference they had to wrestle away from Boston.
Over the last two months, the gap appeared to close. Indiana lost on a Dwyane Wade-winner in OT down in Miami on Mar. 10 and routed the Heat, 105-90, two weeks later.
The Pacers sport a better record than Miami since the All-Star break and are talking the talk as they trek down to South Florida for the start of their first conference semifinal appearance since 2005. Not only do they say they're dreaming big and set to walk in stride with the league's emerging superpower, they're being downright antagonistic, poking the top seed squarely in the eye.
Roy Hibbert said his Pacers came together through trials and tribulations, more than insinuating Miami took a shortcut by opening the checkboook and putting three $100-million players together. Coach Frank Vogel took real talk further, pulling no punches in calling the Heat out for playing to the officials.
"They are the biggest flopping team in the NBA," Vogel told the Indianapolis Star. "It'll be very interesting to see how the referees officiate the series and how much flopping they reward... Every drive to the basket, they have guys not making a play on the ball," Vogel said, "but sliding in front of drivers. Oftentimes they're falling down even before contact is even being made. It'll be interesting to see how the series is officiated."
What will really be interesting is whether Miami can punish the Pacers for their bravado. It goes without saying that they'll set out to embarrass them. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra promised a physical series worthy of a cage. That this will not be friendly is a given. Whether it can be competitive is where the intrigue lies.
The Pacers can't afford Danny Granger to shoot poorly and wilt in the presence of LeBron James. They need Hibbert to impose his will in the paint, not his rendition of a 7-foot-2 disappearing act. Paul George can't play like a 22-year-old NBA sophomore, even though he just celebrated that birthday on May 2 in the midst of his second postseason. Multiple pieces must play over their heads. Miami's supporting cast must fail its star teammates when the extra pass is made. The Heat will have to meet them in the middle, creating some breaks and opportunities.
It remains to be seen whether the Pacers will have the bite to match the bark. They've set the tone that they don't intend to cower, but we won't know until Game 1 tips if they've simply been digging themselves a deeper grave.
Head-to-Head Matchups: The second quarter of that first game went 33-12, Miami, leading to a 118-83 wince-worthy humiliation. The first half of the second encounter ended with the Heat up 68-39 at halftime. If that's a bit confusing, the gist is that Indiana didn't belong on the same court.
In the March meetings, the Pacers had the fresher legs. They were coming off lengthy layoffs prior to both, while Miami was playing its third road game in four night in its only loss. The Heat lacked the energy that helped them steamroll through those first few weeks. Remember the Chip Kelly-inspired pace? All the talk of angles and superior athletes executing at a tempo that can't be slowed? Indiana certainly couldn't keep up.
That changed post All-Star, as Indiana held the Heat to 39 first-half points in that third showdown, limiting James to just six at the break, one of his lowest-scoring first halves since arriving from Cleveland. They forced 17 turnovers in the final regular-season meeting, building up a 56-44 second-half edge to roll to victory.
After being out-rebounded in all three losses by a combined margin of 137-108, Indiana dominated the boards by a 49-33 count in its win, holding Chris Bosh to two in 36 minutes. The Pacers saw David West, Hibbert, Granger and George combine for 40 boards, as each grabbed at least nine. Count on the gang-rebounding approach to continue as Vogel attempts to keep the pressure off Hibbert.
Leandro Barbosa added 14 points in his only game as a Pacer against Miami, so count on him, Darren Collison and Tyler Hansbrough being factors off the bench to try and exploit the Heat's lack of depth. One curveball they haven't seen is George Hill in the starting lineup, as Indiana's new point guard missed all three losses and played just 15 minutes in the win, going scoreless. His ability to defend both Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers will be a major asset.
Betting Notes: Game 1 will set the tone as to whether you'll have to lay double-digits at home when backing Miami. Oddsmakers installed the Heat as 8-point favorites, similar to what they did against Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks. Following the loss of Iman Shumpert and how convincingly Miami thrashed New York in the series opener, it became a little dicey to back Heat blowouts. Don't expect to see the Pacers favored at all in the series, as they were a home 'dog in both regular-season meetings. Vogel has only beaten Spoelstra's Heat once in six tries since taking over for Jim O'Brien. The average score of those meetings is 105.5-99, and the teams have split against the spread.
Four of the six meetings have gone 'under' the posted total. The Pacers have a better record against the number on the road than they do at Banker's Life Fieldhouse, where they were just 15-18 in the regular season and 2-1 against the Magic. They were 17-16 in away games and 1-1 at Amway Center, failing to cover despite winning in OT and sweeping a pair in Orlando. The Heat are a combined 31-5 at home counting their unblemished playoff mark, beating the Knicks three times by double-digits.
Series Outlook: James has been exceptional against the Pacers and has a history of terrorizing Granger, who was one of his chief rivals when he played for the Cavs in the Central Division. He's averaging 27.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists against Indiana this season, so even though Granger and George have the requisite size to deal with him on the perimeter, neither has proven strong enough to stop him. If the Pacers are to reverse that trend, it will be up to George to frustrate him with his length, putting the bulk of his energy in to the defensive assignment. Hill's insertion into the starting lineup means he'll see a lot of Wade, freeing up Granger to shadow Chalmers, help where he can and concentrate on spreading the floor on the offensive end.
On paper, it all sounds great. Indiana has players that have participated in All-Star Games across the front line in Granger, West and Hibbert, so the arsenal is there to give the Heat problems. That said, you saw what happened when they got down to business against New York, so its disconcerting for Indiana that its viewed as a stronger challenger. Mix in the rattling of cages the Pacers have done and you can expect Miami in message-sending mode throughout this semifinal series. Most are already penciling in the Heat into the Eastern Confernce finals given how unlikely it is that the Pacers can score four wins, so these first games in South Florida will be crucial in determining how much fight the underdog is actually packing. Ultimately, whether in a sweep or a series that goes the distance, Miami will advance.
Pacers at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-8.5, 188)
SERIES ODDS: Pacers +600, Heat -1429
THE STORY: The Miami Heat had little trouble dispatching the New York Knicks in five games in round one, leaning on newly-crowned MVP LeBron James and a strong team defensive effort. The Indiana Pacers had just as easy a time with the Orlando Magic in the first round, under far less scrutiny. Danny Granger took charge with 21.4 points and will likely draw James as a defender on Sunday when the Eastern Conference semifinals start.
ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana has been largely overlooked despite being the No. 3 seed in the East and going 12-3 in April to finish the regular season. The Pacers put on a convincing display in the first round, dropping the first game to the Magic and then controlling the rest of the series. They outscored Orlando 36-16 in the fourth quarter of Game 5 to cruise to a 105-87 victory. While Granger was the main scorer, Indiana got strong performances from Roy Hibbert, George Hill and David West. The Pacers dropped the first three regular season meetings with Miami but took the last one, 105-90, behind 25 points from Granger on Mar. 26.
ABOUT THE HEAT: James received his third MVP Award on Saturday, picking up 85 of 121 first place votes. The star forward was humbled but spoke of a “bigger goal,” saying “I want that championship. That’s all that matters to me.” James certainly played like that was the case in the first round, averaging 27.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.6 assists. With the top-seeded Chicago Bulls making an early exit, Miami is the clear favorite to advance to the NBA Finals for a second-straight season. The only issue that crops up for the Heat is with the supporting cast, which has been inconsistent all season. Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier and Mike Miller each had strong games against the Knicks.
TRENDS:
- The underdog is 24-9-1 ATS in the last 34 meetings.
- The under is 22-7 in Heat last 29 home games.
- The Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. James is the eighth player in NBA history to have won at least three MVP awards.
2. James has averaged 27.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 6.6 assists in his career against Indiana.
3. Granger has been held to 17 points on 40.5 percent shooting in his career against Miami.
Clippers at Grizzlies: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies (-8, 178)
Series tied 3-3
THE STORY: The Memphis Grizzlies barely edged the Los Angeles Clippers for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage, putting them in position to host Sunday’s winner-take-all Game 7. The Grizzlies have clawed back from a 3-1 series deficit with two straight victories, including Friday's night's 90-88 win in Los Angeles over the hobbled Clippers. Memphis has won two of three at home in the series, but blew a 27-point lead in Game 1 and frittered away most of a 24-point edge in Game 5.
ODDS: The Grizzlies opened as low as 6.5-point favorites and were bet up to -8. The total was posted at 179.5 and has come down to 178 points.
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Los Angeles has displayed amazing resiliency in Memphis, but that will be tested due to the injuries sustained by All-Stars Chris Paul (hip) and Blake Griffin (knee) in Game 5. Both players were clearly limited Friday and Paul, considered one of the game’s great closers, was a non-factor with one point in the fourth quarter. "I couldn't move as much as I like to," Paul admitted. Backup point guard Eric Bledsoe and reserve forward Kenyon Martin combined to score 24 points in Game 6, but Nick Young has been missing in action since 19- and 11-point efforts in the first two games. He has a combined two points on 1-for-8 shooting in the last two contests.
ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Leading scorer Rudy Gay has a combined 27 points in the last two games but Memphis has used the same blueprint to twice stave off elimination. The tandem of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph has overpowered the Clippers in the back-to-back wins. The 7-foot-1 Gasol was all but invisible during a three-game stretch before bouncing back with consecutive 23-point outings. Randolph, the hero of last season’s playoff run, submitted his second straight double-double with 18 points and 16 boards in Game 6. After having missed 2 1/2 months due to knee surgery, he was less than sympathetic about Los Angeles’ injuries. ''Everybody's hurting. My knee is hurting. I ain't looking for no excuse,” Randolph said.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Home team is 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Only eight teams in NBA history have rebounded from a 3-1 deficit to win a seven-game series.
2. Since 1948, the home team has prevailed in Game 7 a whopping 80 percent of the time.
3. Memphis has won 13 of its last 14 home games, the only loss coming when it squandered the 27-point lead in Game 1.
NBA Preview
Clippers (3-3) @ Grizzlies -- Health of Paul/Griffin is again key to this game, as Clippers are dead if Paul can't be explosive off the dribble. He had only 11 points in 35 minutes in Game 6 loss (Clippers led by 8 in 4th quarter); flying cross-country twice in four days can't help. LA has three series wins by combined total of six points, with couple of one-point wins and one in OT. Three of last four series games stayed under total, as teams know each other's sets like the back of their hands.
Pacers @ Heat -- Home side won three of four series games, with Pacers losing two games here by 25-15 points; Indiana lucked out in first round with Orlando missing Dwight Howard- they've won last seven games on road, with last away loss March 31 at San Antonio. Miami breezed past the Knicks in five games in first round, winning three home games by 33-10-12 points. Indiana allowed 84.5 ppg in winning last four games with Orlando, after losing the opener by four points.
Armadillosports.com
INDIANA (46 - 25) at MIAMI (50 - 21)
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS (43 - 29) at MEMPHIS (44 - 28)
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 393-461 ATS (-114.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 148-188 ATS (-58.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 136-187 ATS (-69.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 31-39 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 8-8 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-8 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS vs. MEMPHIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing on the road against Memphis
LA Clippers are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Memphis is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Memphis is 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
INDIANA vs. MIAMI
Indiana is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Miami is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
LA Clippers at Memphis
LA Clippers: 7-0 ATS Away w/ same season revenge
Memphis: 61-35 Under off BB road games
Indiana at Miami
Indiana: 9-26 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points
Miami: 14-5 ATS at home off ATS loss
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies Game 7
By Jeff Scott Sports
It’s fitting that a series with four games decided by four points or less comes down to a seventh game. Three of those close wins have been in favor of Los Angeles, winning by one point, one point and four points. Memphis had its narrow victory on Friday night, edging the Clips on the road 90-88. The Clippers are 17-19 SU (17-17-2 ATS) on the road this season, but are just 1-5 (SU and ATS) in their past six road games dating back to the regular season. After scoring 101 points in its Game 4 win, L.A. has been held to just 84.0 PPG on 40.3% FG in its past two losses. L.A.’s two stars both had subpar performances playing through injuries on Friday as PF Blake Griffin (sprained knee) was held to 17 points and five rebounds, and PG Chris Paul (hip flexor) scored a paltry 11 points before fouling out. But Paul continues to dominate the series with 20.7 PPG (47% FG), 7.7 APG and 5.2 RPG. Griffin has scored at least 15 points in each game this series, averaging 19.7 PPG on 56% FG, which his nearly as high as his 58% free-throw rate (28-of-48 FT). SF Caron Butler injured his non-shooting hand in Game 1, and has made just 13-of-36 shots (36%) since the injury. But he does have a respectable 10.3 PPG over the past three games. SG Nick Young has cooled down considerably since his 15.0 PPG on 10-of-16 FG (6-of-7 threes) in Games 1-2, both in Memphis. In the past four contests, Young has a total of 14 points on 5-of-17 FG (2-for-9 threes), logging just 16.3 MPG. Memphis is 28-8 SU, but just 17-18-1 ATS at home this season. SF Rudy Gay (19.0 PPG, 41.4% FG in series) is especially happy to return home, considering he’s shot 49% FG in Memphis this series, and just 35% FG on the road. SG O.J. Mayo (9.7 PPG in series) continues to struggle putting the ball in the basket. After averaging 18.5 PPG in Games 1-2, he has scored a total of 21 points over his past four games, making just 5-of-23 FG (1-for-8 threes). Memphis. however, has used the same blueprint to twice stave off elimination. The tandem of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph has overpowered the Clippers in the back-to-back wins. Both of the Memphis big men had huge nights, as C Marc Gasol scored a game-high 23 points with nine rebounds (four offensive) and PF Zach Randolph added 18 points and 16 boards (six offensive). This was almost a carbon copy of Game 5, where Gasol had 23 points and seven rebounds in Game 5, and Randolph pitched in 19 points and 10 rebounds. Since 1948, the home team has prevailed in Game 7 a whopping 80 percent of the time, while only eight teams in NBA history have rebounded from a 3-1 deficit to win a seven-game series.
Free Pick: This has been a close series indeed, but Memphis has all the momentum in the world right now, they are at home and they also have the time advantage in this one, as this is equal to a 10 AM LA start time. A little early for the Clippers to be starting a game. There have been 4 games that have been decided by 4 or less points, but the tigers do have the two biggest wins in the series (7 & 12 points) and both have been on this floor. The Clippers look a bit down and having this early start time won't help them at all. I expect them to fall behind early and never be able to catch up as the Grizzlies complete the 3-1 deficit comeback with an easy DD win.
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat Game 1
By Jeff Scott Sports
Indiana has been largely overlooked despite being the No. 3 seed in the East and going 12-3 in April to finish the regular season. The Pacers put on a convincing display in the first round, dropping the first game to the Magic and then controlling the rest of the series. Indiana’s starting frontcourt of C Roy Hibbert, PF David West and SF Danny Granger combined for 48.2 PPG and 27.4 RPG against Orlando, but none of the three was extremely efficient against the Heat this season. Granger scored just 13.3 PPG on 34% FG in the four meetings, far below his 18.7 PPG in the regular season. Hibbert had 10.5 PPG and 8.3 PPG versus Miami this year, but made just 41.9% FG. West shot even worse at 35.7% FG to get his 12.0 PPG against the Heat. SG George Hill is coming off a nice playoff series (14.2 PPG, 43% threes), but Miami held him to 4.5 PPG on 14% FG in two meetings. PG Paul George had 9.4 PPG and 7.0 RPG in the first round, but shot a dismal 2-for-17 from three-point land, well below his strong 39% clip from long range during the regular season. George scored 13.3 PPG in four meetings with the Heat this year. Indiana has been an outstanding road team at 21-14 (18-17 ATS). This includes seven straight road wins (5-2 ATS) since losing at San Antonio on the last day of March. The Miami Heat had little trouble dispatching the New York Knicks in five games in round one, leaning on newly-crowned MVP LeBron James and a strong team defensive effort. Winning in Miami has been quite a difficult task for opposing NBA teams. The Heat are 31-5 (20-15-1 ATS) at AmericanAirlines Arena, outscoring these visitors 100.6 to 89.1 PPG and outshooting them 48% to 43% FG. Newly-named league MVP SF LeBron James started off his 2012 postseason with a bang, averaging 27.8 PPG (48% FG), 6.2 RPG, 5.6 APG and 2.2 SPG in the five-game series win over New York. He also performed at a high level versus Indiana this year, averaging 26.8 PPG (47% FG), 8.5 RPG, 6.5 APG and 2.8 SPG. SG Dwyane Wade’s production was nearly parallel with James, as Wade lit up the Knicks for 21.0 PPG (51% FG), 4.0 APG and 2.8 SPG. Wade’s numbers against the Pacers this season were also stellar: 22.7 PPG (52% FG), 5.3 APG, 5.0 RPG and 2.0 BPG. PF Chris Bosh had an up-and-down series against the Knicks, scoring 9, 21, 9, 17 and 19 points. His numbers versus Indiana this season were nothing to write home about either at 15.5 PPG (46% FG) and 5.3 RPG. Miami has won nine of the 11 meetings (7-4 ATS), with the Pacers, over the past three seasons with seven of those nine victories coming by at least seven points.
Free Pick: I like the Over in this one. 3 of the 4 meetings this year and 5 orf their last 6 overall have hit at least 195 points. Just 12 of Miami's 36 home games have gone over the total this year, yet their home games have averaged 189.7 ppg. Miami has averaged 100.6 ppg at home on the year, but in their 3 home playoff games they have upped that to an average of 103.3 ppg. The Pacers did allow just 83.5 ppg in their 1st round series, but that was vs a depleted Orlando team that just didn't have enough offense to compete. Prior to that series the Pacers did allow 100.8 ppg in their last 5 regular season games. Miami plays great defense at home (89.1 ppg), but did allow NY 94 points in each of their last 2 homes games in round 1. Indiana is not a great offensive team, but they have averaged 95.9 ppg on the road this year, while in their last 4 of round 1 they put up 99 ppg. Lokk for the low 90's form the Pacers here, while Miami should get right around 100.