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NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday 5/27

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Western Conference Finals Preview Capsule
By Associated Press

A look at the Western Conference finals, which begin Sunday (with regular-season and playoff records)

Season series: Spurs, 2-1. San Antonio won the last two meetings, including a victory at Oklahoma City, as it charged past the Thunder to earn the No. 1 seed. None of the games was particularly close, with Oklahoma City leading by 22 after three quarters in its Jan. 8 home victory, before the Spurs built leads of 24 and 27 points in their two wins. The last was back on March 16, before the Spurs upgraded their rotation. Tim Duncan averaged 14.5 points and 17 rebounds in San Antonio's victories, while rookie Kawhi Leonard added 14.3 points in the series. Kevin Durant scored 22.7 per game for the Thunder.

Story line: The best of the West, who have been the most impressive teams in the playoffs, meet for a trip to the NBA finals. The Thunder were the conference favorites for much of the season, but the Spurs seem to have assumed that role now after winning 18 straight games by an average of 14 points. They are looking for a fifth NBA title, while Durant and Russell Westbrook are trying to lead the Thunder to their first since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City.

Key Matchup I: Tony Parker vs. Westbrook. The Parker-Chris Paul matchup didn't live up to expectations last round because Paul was banged up, but this one very well might. Both All-Stars are among the best at running the pick-and-roll, Parker rarely looking better than when he torched the Thunder for 42 points and nine assists in the Spurs' 107-96 victory Feb. 4. Westbrook, who averaged 25.6 points in the Thunder's five-game victory over the Lakers in the second round, had a 36-point outing against the Spurs in the regular season but shot only 13 of 29 in that game.

Key Matchup II: Manu Ginobili vs. James Harden. Ginobili has long been one of the NBA's top sixth men, but Harden won the award this season. He was terrific against the Spurs in the regular season, averaging 19 points on 59 percent shooting. Ginobili sat out all three meetings but is healthy now when it matters most, eliminating what has been the Spurs' biggest problem since their last title in 2007.

X-Factor: Danny Green. A reserve who totaled only 12 points in the teams' first two meetings, Green was a starter by the finale, when he made five 3-pointers and scored 21 points. He's fourth on the Spurs after their Big Three in scoring during the playoffs, averaging 10.4 points.

Prediction: Spurs in 7

 
Posted : May 24, 2012 1:28 pm
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Western Conference Final Preview
Sportspic.com

San Antonio Spurs going from a stifling defensive team to one that wins with it's offense have not lost since April 11 posting an impressive 18-0 streak (15-2-1 ATS) including 8-0 in these playoffs (6-2 ATS). Netting a whopping 109.3 points/game on 50.8% shooting over the stretch while holding opponents to a messily 93.4 per contest (43.3% FG) it's fair to say Spurs are the best team standing right now in the NBA playoffs.

Duncan and Company face Oklahoma City Thunder next. San Antonio has been far more dominant these playoffs with six of their eight wins coming by double digits, Thunder have won five of their nine by three or less. Not to say that Spurs won't lose a game against a very good Oklahoma City team. However with home court advantage coach of the year Popovich and his 'Big Three' should move on. Keep in mind, the AT&T Center in San Antonio has been a House-of-Horrors for visitors as Spurs are on a 17-1 stretch in Alamo City (16-1-1 ATS) winning by an average 15.8 points/game. For the record, Spurs won 2-of-3 SU/ATS vs Thunder this season and enter the Western Conference Final on an 8-2 SU/ATS stretch vs OKC including 4-1 (3-2 ATS) hosting OKC. The Thunder are +155 underdogs against Spurs in the West finals and 5-point underdogs in Game 1 on Sunday.

 
Posted : May 24, 2012 2:01 pm
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Spurs-Thunder Outlook
By Antony Dinero
VegasInsider.com

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 2 Oklahoma City

Series Price: San Antonio -175, Oklahoma City +155

Series Format: San Antonio, 2-2-1-1-1 (All games on TNT)

Game 1 - Sunday, May 27
Game 2 - Tuesday, May 29
Game 3 - Thursday, May 31
Game 4 - Saturday, June 2
Game 5* - Monday, June 4
Game 6* - Wednesday, June 6
Game 7* - Friday, June 8

Skinny: San Antonio waited eight days for its series with the L.A. Clippers to start and proceeded to wrap up another 4-0 sweep in just six days. As a result, the Spurs enter the Western Conference Finals having played just eight times in a month's time, which in this lockout-shortened season, means everything.

Getting another full week to prepare for this series, the Spurs will obviously have fresh legs. Everyone is healthy. They've been getting after it in intense practices designed to keep them sharp and will open this series against second-seeded Oklahoma City at home, where they've beaten teams by an average of 19.8 points on this 9-0 run that makes up part of their epic 18-game-winning streak.

It should be no surprise that despite the inevitable Geritol jokes and AARP references, their betting backers have cashed in on the Spurs throughout the streak, only failing to cover in their two close-out games.

So if you've been wondering how a Thunder team making their second consecutive conference finals appearance behind three-time scoring champ Kevin Durant can be a -175 underdog here, it's because San Antonio has been that good.

Oklahoma City is plenty ready to take its next step. Age is unfortunately likely to be mentioned at nauseum in this series, but the Thunder have reached this level and learned plenty from a team that ended up winning it all. They're not inexperienced. Derek Fisher and Nazr Mohammed inflate their average age and bring a ring collection to the table. Don't paint them with the young brush. OKC's average age is 25.4, a tad younger than San Antonio's (27).

Durant is surging, while Russell Westbrook and James Harden have been explosive and efficient. The trio combined for 70 points in the clincher against the L.A. Lakers, while Serge Ibaka has achieved cult status by continuing his run as the NBA's premier shot-blocker, averaging 3.67 in the postseason. The Thunder have run through defending champion Dallas and L.A. with one sole blemish during their nine-game playoff run. The only starter with a championship ring, Kendrick Perkins, has held down the fort despite dealing with a nagging hip strain that should be improved.

OKC has the speed edge on the Spurs, whose strengths are depth and cohesion. Perkins and San Antonio's X-factor DeJuan Blair have had some drama in the past, so that's a physical battle worth watching, but unlike the Eastern Conference slugfests, this series should be pleasing to watch and can be counted on not to have fourth-quarter scores that resemble those at halftime.

Believe the hype. This is a series you can't miss. Down the road, we'll probably be grateful owners and the players union ended the lockout simply because it helped preserve this offering.

Head-to-Head Matchups: Oklahoma City held serve at home in January and San Antonio followed suit in February. In the most recent meeting, the Spurs notched a 114-105 road win. The Spurs' Manu Ginobili didn't play in any of the games, while Boris Diaw, Stephen Jackson and Derek Fisher had yet to suit up when they last played. All three games went over the posted total, which is why this first total is starting out over 200, a rarity at this stage of the season.

The Thunder are most concerned with the pick-and-roll game of point guard Tony Parker, who dropped a career-high 42 points and nine assists in the 107-96 victory on Feb. 4. It was a virtuoso effort where he called his own number 29 times and managed to still dish out nine assists, putting the danger he poses OKC on full display after an awful 1-for-8 night that where he subbed out early due to injury when the teams first met. Parker scored 25 points in the final meeting and will key the Spurs by making Westbrook work on both ends.

San Antonio's goal with Westbrook is to help turn him over and disrupt OKC's recent offensive harmony. Parker has rattled him in the past, but he's never been more efficient with the ball. Averaging just 1.6 turnovers this postseason after turning it over just four times in the entire Lakers series, Westbrook is excelling. The team that turned the ball over the most during the regular season has committed the fewest during these playoffs (10.7). Durant scored below his NBA-high 28.0 scoring average in each of the three games (22.8) but rebounded extremely well (9.3) and knows he has to be active. Harden also comes in with a lot of confidence about what he can do against San Antonio, averaging 19.3 off the bench. He'll be a problem for Ginobili.

Betting Notes: Most books put the opening line at 5, the lowest that's been available for a Spurs home game since Mar. 25, the third night of a back-to-back against Philadelphia. Each of the four postseason matchups at AT&T Center has featured double-digits spreads which have been covered... The last failed home cover doubles as San Antonio's last loss (Apr. 11)... Oklahoma City hasn't been as efficient at home against the spread, going 2-3 despite the 5-0 playoff SU mark at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Spurs handed Oklahoma City their largest home deficit of 2012 by going up 63-36 in the first half of the March matchup... For stats hounds, these were the No. 2 and No. 3 scoring teams in the regular season, each averaging 103 points. Both surrendered an average of just over 96. They are one-two scoring the ball this postseason, with the Spurs up 102.5-100. San Antonio was the top 3-point shooting team in the league (39.3), while Oklahoma City's free-throw shooting topped the 80 percent mark, also tops in the NBA. Those shooting trends have continued, as the Spurs (42.3) and Thunder (84.0) continue to lead the NBA in the aforementioned categories.

Series Outlook: This Spurs team has become renowned for their ball movement and shooting prowess, but has demonstrated the ability to clamp down for long stretches this postseason. An elite defensive rebounding team, San Antonio is unlikely to allow Ibaka and Perkins to keep too many extra possessions alive, putting extra pressure on OKC to score efficiently and make sure the pace is fast. That's a dangerous game to play with the Spurs, but Westbrook and Harden killed the Lakers bigs by abusing them on pick-and-roll switches and hope their speed and aggressiveness will be a critical factor. Odds are great that we'll get at least a few shootouts in this series since both are so confident in their ability to put the ball in the basket. That creates a tendency to relax on the defensive end. Expect Ibaka and Perkins to be have issues with foul trouble throughout the series. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see the series go the distance, which is where San Antonio is going to feel fortunate that resting veterans down the stretch never caught up with them, hosting that potential Game 7. Coach of the Year Gregg Popovich has been packing a Midas touch throughout this strike-shortened season, which is why that robust series price seems merited.

 
Posted : May 25, 2012 10:27 am
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Thunder at Spurs: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-5.5, 204.5)

THE STORY: Can two overcome 10? The Oklahoma City Thunder are about to find out when they face the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference finals. The Thunder will be banking on their 1-2 punch of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to KO the Spurs, who have swept both opponents on the way to the conference finals and have reeled off 18 consecutive victories behind a deep and balanced lineup that utilizes 10 players. San Antonio won two of three regular-season meetings.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City swept reigning league champion Dallas before taking out Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers in five games. Three-time scoring champion Durant and Westbrook have combined to average nearly 51 points in the postseason, giving the Thunder a lethal combination that no team north of the Miami Heat can match. Durant has four double-doubles in the postseason while Westbrook has committed only nine turnovers in the last eight games. As good as they are, Oklahoma City's hopes may hinge on super-sub James Harden, who averaged 16.8 points in the regular season and was named the league's Sixth Man of the Year. Big men Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins supply shot-blocking, rebounding and toughness, but both are limited offensively.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Tim Duncan has led San Antonio to four league titles since 1999, and at age 36 appears intent on adding another. He averaged 21.0 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting nearly 60 percent in the sweep of the Los Angeles Clippers. Point guard Tony Parker has had a sensational postseason, and had one of his best (season-high 42 points) and worst (4 points, 1-of-8 shooting) games against the Thunder this season. The Spurs have not faced Oklahoma City with sixth man Manu Ginobili or late-season acquisitions Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson in the lineup. San Antonio has been lighting it up from 3-point range, with Danny Green and rookie Kawhi Leonard each shooting better than 45 percent in the playoffs.

TRENDS:

*Spurs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
*Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings, and 5-2 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.
*Thunder is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games.
*Spurs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 conference finals games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Since the start of the 2009 season, San Antonio is 8-2 against the Thunder with an average victory margin of 9.6 points.

2. Durant is the seventh player in league history to win three straight scoring titles and the first since Michael Jordan (1995-98).

3. Since Diaw and Jackson both joined the Spurs, they are 28-2. San Antonio has not lost since April 11.

 
Posted : May 26, 2012 8:58 pm
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NBA Preview

Thunder @ Spurs -- Keep in mind Game 1's usually have best shooting percentages, since its first time teams have seen other team run its own offense-- over is 6-6 in Game 1's this spring, 24-28-1 in all other games. San Antonio won its last 18 games; their last loss was April 11, 46 days ago; they've won eight of last ten games against the Thunder, with eight wins by average if 9.6 points. Thunder is 8-1 in playoffs, with only loss to Lakers by 3 at Staples- they've won last seven road games that were not at Staples. Spurs won two of three vs OC this season, winning last two by 11-9 points.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : May 27, 2012 8:30 am
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OKLAHOMA CITY (55 - 20) at SAN ANTONIO (58 - 16)

Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 49-22 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 39-17 ATS (+20.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 88-61 ATS (+20.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 142-116 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 75-53 ATS (+16.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-3 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-2 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

OKLAHOMA CITY vs. SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City

Oklahoma City at San Antonio
Oklahoma City: 7-18 ATS after scoring 105+ points
San Antonio: 27-8 ATS in home games

 
Posted : May 27, 2012 8:31 am
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