Heat at Celtics Game 4: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (+1, 180.5)
THE STORY: The Boston Celtics attempt to even the best-of-7 Eastern Conference finals at 2-2 when they host the Miami Heat on Sunday. Boston ensured it wouldn’t be swept by posting a 101-91 victory on Friday in a contest that it led for the final 37 minutes. LeBron James has been sensational for Miami with three 30-point games in the series but teammate Dwyane Wade has been inconsistent. The Heat expect to again be without forward Chris Bosh.
LINE: Books opened the Celtics as 1-point home favorites but bettors have moved the spread past a pick'em and currently have Boston as a 1-point home underdog. The total opened at 180.5 points.
ABOUT THE HEAT: Bosh (lower abdominal strain) is making progress but not enough to return to action and is slated to miss his eighth consecutive playoff game. What has become clear during his absence is that the Heat badly miss Bosh as James has often been a one-man act with Wade struggling. “Probably the biggest confidence-builder for our basketball team was the mere fact that the last two years we simply couldn’t win without Chris,” Spoelstra said. “We couldn’t play effectively without Chris. He was our most important player.” Wade is averaging 21 points in the series but his points have come in bunches and he didn’t shoot a single free throw in 41-plus minutes in Game 3.
ABOUT THE CELTICS: Point guard Rajon Rondo evolved back from scoring machine to stellar distributor in Boston’s Game 3 victory. Rondo, who had 44 points in Game 2, contributed 21 points and 10 assists and fueled Kevin Garnett’s strong game (24 points, 11 rebounds) with numerous pinpoint passes in the interior. Coach Doc Rivers repeatedly told Rondo to look for the mismatches. “He kept preaching to just throw it up to him,” Rondo said. “They went small, and no one can jump as high as Kevin. He stood up to the rim and he went up and got most of them.” Rondo is averaging 27 points and nine assists in the series.
TRENDS:
- Home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.
- Under is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Boston.
- Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
- Heat are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.
- Heat are 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. James is averaging 33.3 points and 10.3 rebounds in the series and has eight 30-point outings in the postseason.
2. Boston forward Paul Pierce is averaging 18.7 points but shooting just 34.5 percent from the field.
3. Miami forward Mike Miller showed life off the bench in Game 3 with 11 points and three 3-pointers for his third double-digit outing of the postseason.
NBA Preview
Heat (2-1) @ Celtics -- Home teams are now 7-0 in this round; favored team has won like 20 NBA games in a row, not covered spread, but won game SU. Miami is now 0-3 in this building this year; they survived OT home win in Game 2, with James 18-24 from foul line by himelf- he's not getting 24 FTs in a road game. James/Wade combined to shoot 21-35 in Game 1, 15-35 in Game 2, 25-46 last game, but Lebron only got to the foul line five freakin' times. Boston is 5-3 at home in playoffs. Fact of matter is that over in Celtics' nine playoff wins, over is 6-3- they only scored 79 points in Game 1, 99 in regulation in Game 2, 101 last game. Under is 4-2-1 in Boston's seven playoff losses. Rondo had 64 points, 20 assists last two games; he's kicking Miami's butt.
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
The Celtics' playing solid defense and getting a combined 68 points from Garnett, Pearce, Rondo spanked Heat 101-91 in Game-Three Friday night and now have a chance to turn the Eastern Conference Final into a best-of-three affair with another victory on TD Garden hardwood. Plenty of reasons to back Boston as Celtics' have had great success against Miami in Beantown winning 14-of-15 encounters with a profitable 11-4 mark at the betting window including a 5-1 SU/ATS stretch in second season. If that were not enough, consider that Celtics' are on a 14-6-1 ATS stretch on home court and that Heat are on a 1-4 ATS slide these playoffs off a game scoring <100 points, 5-12 ATS road skid vs a team winning 60% of their games at home. Sportsbooks opened Boston 1-point favorite but the betting market has moved Celtics' to 1.0 to 1.5 underdogs depending on locale.
MIAMI (56 - 24) at BOSTON (48 - 34)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) on Sunday games this season.
BOSTON is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 19-37 ATS (-21.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 16-8 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 15-9 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
14 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami at Boston
Miami: 5-13 ATS away off an ATS loss
Boston: 12-3 ATS on Sundays
Game 4, Heat-Celtics
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Celtics were either going to fold heading back home down 2-0, or put things together to get back into the Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat. Boston chose the latter as the C's overcame a strong first quarter by LeBron James to drill Miami, 101-91, while covering for the second straight game. However, Doc Rivers' team is going from a 2½-point favorite in Game 3 to 1½-point underdog in Game 4, as the Celtics try to snap an incredible run by favorites in these playoffs.
Following last night's Game 4 victory by the Thunder, 'chalk' in the past 20 games of the postseason has won straight-up, while covering 16 times. Boston won for the seventh time in eight games at TD Garden in the playoffs, as the C's used a 25-14 second quarter to take a 13-point lead at the half. The Celtics built the advantage to 24 in the second half, thanks to a complete scoring effort from Kevin Garnett (24), Paul Pierce (23), and Rajon Rondo (21). The Heat came all the way back to cut the deficit to eight points in the final minutes, but it wasn't enough as Miami fell to 3-3 on the road in the playoffs.
James continued his postseason domination with a 34-point performance in Game 3, while Dwyane Wade did most of his damage in the second half with 18 points. The biggest issue by far for the Heat in the series besides Chris Bosh remaining out with an abdominal injury, is free throw shooting. Miami shot an abysmal 50% from the line on Friday (10-20), while going 31-47 from the charity stripe in the Game 2 overtime victory at home.
Heading into tonight's Game 4, the Heat has to overcome a below-average record on the road off a loss. This season, Erik Spoelstra's club put together a 4-8 SU/ATS mark away from South Florida off a defeat, but one of those victories came in the Game 4 at Indiana in the conference semifinals. The Heat is 14-8 SU and 13-9 ATS the last 22 games as a road favorite, which basically means pick the winner since the lone SU win and ATS loss came at New Jersey on April 16.
The Celtics have dominated the Heat in Beantown over the years by compiling a 9-1 SU/ATS record the last 10 home meetings. The only victory by Miami came in last year's Game 4 of the conference semifinals, a 98-90 overtime triumph to give the Heat a commanding 3-1 series lead, following a blowout loss in Game 3. Does that situation sound familiar?
The 'over' has hit in each of the last two games of this series, thanks to a 58-point first quarter to set the pace in Game 3. For the first time all postseason, Boston scored 100 points or more in consecutive games, while looking to drill the 'over' for the third straight contest since Games 3-5 in the Philadelphia series. Miami continues to score in bunches by sailing 'over' the total in five of the previous six games.
Sportsbook.ag lists several interesting player props for tonight, as James' points and assists total is set at 37 (shaded to the 'over' at -125). The three-time MVP has eclipsed that total in four of the last six games, while scoring at least 30 points five times in this stretch. The expectation is Wade will rebound after slow starts in each of the last two games with his point total tonight set at 24 (shaded to the 'over' at -140). Wade scored 22 points or less in four of six road playoff games, but put up 30 and 41 points in the other two away postseason contests.
The Heat is listed as a 1½-point favorite tonight, while the total is set at 180. The game tips off at 8:30 PM from TD Garden and can be seen nationally on ESPN.