NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, April 30th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Wizards won Game 6 in Atlanta Friday nite, have quick turnaround here in Boston, where they lost last four visits (0-4 vs spread). Home side won eight of last ten series games; under is 3-2 in last five meetings. Washington lost three of last four road tilts; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games overall. Celtics were down 2-0 to Bulls, then Rondo broke his thumb and Boston won four straight. C’s are 2-3 vs spread in last five home games; three of their last four games stayed under total. This is first time Boston is past 1st round since 2012; Celtics are 4-3 in last seven 2nd round series.
Utah bench was -48 in Game 6 home loss, shooting 8-29 from floor, when they could’ve finished off series; they had outscored Clipper subs 102-53 in Games 4-5, but were outscored 26-20 last game- Crawford had 12 points for LA. Road team is 4-2 SU in this series; under is 4-2. Gobert turned his ankle late in game, his status here is ??able. Underdogs covered four of six series games; Utah split last four games here vs Clippers- they covered their last four road tilts overall. LA is 4-2 in last six first round series. Jazz last won a playoff series in 2010; this is first time they have been even been in playoffs in five years. Griffin is out for the Clippers.
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Eastern Conference Semifinals
No. 4 Washington at No. 1 Boston
2016-17 Regular Season (Tied 2-2)
Nov. 9 Celtics at Wizards (-1.5) 118-93 (Under 212.5)
Jan. 11 Wizards at Celtics (-5.5) 117-108 (Over 218)
Jan. 24 Celtics at Wizards (+1) 123-108 (Over 216.5)
Mar. 20 Wizards at Celtics (-4) 110-102 (Under 216.5)
The Celtics fell into a 2-0 hole against the Bulls in spite of finishing as the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Following a pair of flat performances at home, Boston rebounded in a big way when heading to the Windy City by grabbing a pair of victories at the United Center to even the series at 2-2. The Celtics finished off the feisty Bulls with consecutive double-digit wins to advance past the first round for the first time under head coach Brad Stevens.
In the first two losses to Chicago, the Celtics yielded 106 and 111 points. However, Boston’s defense stepped up in the final four games (aided by former Celtic Rajon Rondo being sidelined for Chicago) by limiting the Bulls to 97 points or fewer in victories from Game 3-6. Celtics’ leading scorer Isaiah Thomas didn’t have a great series by posting 24 points or fewer in four games, while scoring 12 points in the series clincher on Friday.
Washington advanced to the second round for the third time in the last four seasons by knocking out Atlanta in six games. The home team won the first five contests, but the Wizards broke that trend in Game 6, led by All-Star guard John Wall, who torched the Hawks for 42 points on 16-of-25 shooting. Washington held off Atlanta in the series clincher, 115-99 as three-point underdogs to improve to 11-3 ATS as a postseason road ‘dog since 2014.
The Wizards topped the 109-point mark in each of the first two victories against the Hawks before scoring 101 points or less in the two losses at Philips Arena. Washington’s best offensive output in the series came in Game 6 with 115 points as Scott Brooks’ club cashed the OVER in two of three road games at Atlanta.
Boston and Washington split its four-game season series as the home team won each time. The Wizards routed the Celtics in the first meeting at the Verizon Center in November, 118-93, highlighted by a 34-8 first quarter. Wall and Bradley Beal struggled from the floor by combining for 22 points, but Washington managed to shoot 50% from the field. The Celtics picked up revenge in the next meeting at TD Garden in January with a 117-108 win as Thomas came out on top with a 38-point effort.
Two weeks later back in D.C., the Wizards continued their mastery at home by picking up their 14th straight win at the Verizon Center by cruising past the Celtics, 123-108. Wall and Beal put up their best combined game against Boston with 58 total points, while the Wizards shot a scorching 57% from the field. Boston captured the finale with Washington in late March, 110-102 as four-point home favorites, as the C’s outrebounded the Wizards, 58-39.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia points out Wall’s struggles against Boston this season, “Wall averaged just 17.8 points and shot just 37.3 percent against the Celtics, who frustrated him like few have. Only four teams held Wall to a worse shooting clip, and he shot 15 percent from 3-point range against the Celtics, so this series will test whether he can carry over his groove.”
Meanwhile, Mejia mentions Wall’s backcourt mate can make a major impact in this series, “Beal was much more effective, averaging 22 points against the Celtics. Since a 6-for-20 effort in a Game 3 loss to the Hawks, Beal averaged 30 points per game and should have advantages since he'll see a lot of the smaller Isaiah Thomas since they typically utilize Avery Bradley on Wall. The backcourts will decide this series.”
Sportsbook.ag opened the Celtics as -165 favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals (Bet $165 to win $100), while the Wizards are set as +145 underdogs to win this series. Both Boston (9/2) and Washington (8/1) are behind Cleveland to capture the Eastern Conference championship.
Western Conference First Round
No. 5 Utah at No. 4 L.A. Clippers
2016-17 Posteason (Tied 3-3)
Apr. 15 Jazz (+5.5) at Clippers 97-95 (Under 198)
Apr. 18 Jazz at Clippers (-9) 99-91 (Under 199.5)
Apr. 21 Clippers (-1.5) at Jazz 111-106 (Over 197.5)
Apr. 23 Clippers at Jazz (-5) 105-98 (Over 196)
Apr. 25 Jazz (+3) at Clippers 96-92 (Under 196)
Apr. 28 Clippers (+5.5) at Jazz 98-93 (Under 193.5)
Only one series in the opening round will reach the limit as the Clippers and Jazz return to Staples Center tied at 3-3. This series has seen many twists and turns with injuries to key players, notably Clippers’ forward Blake Griffin, who is sidelined with a toe injury. Los Angeles is playing in its first Game 7 since its meltdown to Houston in the 2015 conference semifinals after leading that series, 3-1. The Clippers last hosted a Game 7 that same season by edging the Spurs on a late Chris Paul layup in the final seconds.
The Jazz were in a prime spot to close out the Clippers on Friday in Game 6 back in Salt Lake City, but Los Angeles did enough to hold off Utah, 98-93 as 5½-point underdogs. Paul paced the Clippers with 29 points, while Los Angeles limited to 41% shooting from the floor. Jazz forward Gordon Hayward led all scorers with 31 points, but Utah struggled from downtown by hitting only 7-of-26 attempts.
Utah won’t be intimidated by playing a Game 7 on the road as the Jazz have won twice already at Staples Center in this series. In all three games in L.A., Quin Snyder’s club has limited the Clippers to 99 points or fewer, but Paul has dominated Utah by averaging 27.3 points per game.
Last postseason, home teams in Game 7 posted a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record as the only squad to lose in this situation was Golden State to Cleveland in the NBA Finals. The last road team to win a Game 7 on the road in the opening round was Brooklyn back in 2014 when the Nets edged the Raptors, 104-103.
Mejia checks in with his view on Game 7, “Even though L.A. gets this deciding game at home, the absence of Griffin gives them an underdog feel since it looks to be such a chore for them on offense. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute gave the Clips a scoring boost in the first half and Austin Rivers proved invaluable, validating Doc's decision to start his son by playing nearly 35 minutes as more asset than liability. Those two become the Game 7 X-factors since they're also tasked with defending Utah's larger wings in Hayward and Joe Johnson.”
Sunday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics (-4.5, 215)
ABOUT THE WIZARDS (53-35 SU, 45-42-1 ATS, 54-33-1 O/U): John Wall scored a postseason career-high 42 points in Friday's closeout game at Atlanta and drew raves for his defensive effort, especially a chase-down block in the fourth quarter that helped cut off a Hawks run. "It’s really not fair - a point guard being able to do what he does," Washington coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "It’s only one player in the league who does that, and we all know who that is. But (Wall) does it every game. That’s a sign of a champion. You chase down plays. You stay in plays." Wall, who averaged 29.5 points and 10.3 assists in the first round, was held to 17.8 points on 37.3 percent shooting in four meetings with Boston in the regular season.
ABOUT THE CELTICS (57-31 SU, 44-42-2 ATS, 42-42-4 O/U): Isaiah Thomas averaged 28.9 points in the regular season but watched his shooting numbers take a dip as he averaged 23 points in the six games against Chicago and went a combined 3-of-26 from 3-point range in the final three games of the series. Boston's other players picked up their hurting leader over the final four games, with Avery Bradley emerging as the hero of Friday's 105-83 Game 6 triumph. "I was really proud of our guys for how they treated each other, how they stood together, stuck together, and how nobody pointed fingers," coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "They were just a great support network for one another, and especially for Isaiah."
LINE HISTORY: The Celtics opened as 4.5-point home chalk in this opening game of the Eastern Conference semifinals and that number has held. The total hit the betting books at 214.5 and has gone up slightly to 215.
INJURY REPORT:
Wizards - C Ian Mahinmi (Out Indefinitely, calf).
Celtics - No injuries to report.
TRENDS:
* Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Wizards last 4 road games.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Celtics last 4 home games.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
* Wizards are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5, 189.5)
ABOUT THE JAZZ (54-34 SU, 40-44-4 ATS, 44-44-0 O/U): Utah hasn't won a playoff series since 2010 and it squandered a big opportunity by losing Game 6 at home. The Jazz received poor shooting performances from series star Joe Johnson (nine points on 3-of-9 shooting) and backup shooting guard Rodney Hood (four points on 2-of-10 shooting) and that sabotaged their ability to score. "I'm not sure if we got tired or got tired of missing," Utah coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "(The Clippers) were the more energetic team. Their physicality on the defensive end, we didn't respond offensively the way that we needed to, or as forceful as we needed to be. When you're not aggressive enough with your frame of mind, I don't think you shoot the ball as well."
ABOUT THE CELTICS (54-34 SU, 42-45-1 ATS, 46-41-1 O/U): Los Angeles held a 91-77 edge with 3:58 left in Game 6 and had to hold off a frantic Utah charge to even the series. Chris Paul helped quell the comeback attempt and will again be counted on heavily Sunday in a series in which he is averaging 27.3 points and 10 assists and topped 20 points in all six games. "He's so unselfish he wants to get other guys going, but sometimes we need him to get going," Jordan told reporters of Paul. "He's been able to do that in this series and just take advantage of whatever they're giving him and then still be able to get other guys involved and keep everybody engaged. As one of the leaders of this team, he's done a great job of that all season and even more in the playoffs."
LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as 3.5-point home favorites in this single elimination game and some early action on the chalk bumped that number to -4 before returning to the opening number of -3.5 Sunday morning. The total opened at 193 and has been bet all of the way down to 189.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Jazz - SG Alec Burks (Doubtful Friday, knee).
Clippers - PF Blake Griffin (Out for Season, toe), C Diamond Stone (Out Indefinitely, knee).
TRENDS:
* Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.
* Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 5-0 in Jazz last five road games.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.