Game of the Day: Knicks at Heat
By Covers.com
New York Knicks at Miami Heat (-7, 187)
Sitting on the periphery of the Eastern Conference playoff race, the New York Knicks can't afford another loss the rest of the way. They'll be in for one of the biggest challenges of the season Sunday afternoon as they face the conference-leading Heat in Miami. New York is coming off a 90-89 heartbreaker to the Washington Wizards on Friday night and enters Sunday's action one game behind the Atlanta Hawks for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East.
Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony indicated that he will play against the Heat after suffering what was termed a "deep bruise" in his right shoulder in the contest against Washington. Miami is in a battle of its own, sitting mere percentage points ahead of the Indiana Pacers in the race for the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Heat lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves 122-121 in double overtime on Friday night despite 34 points from LeBron James.
LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened as 6.5-point home faves and are currently at -7. The total opened at 189 and is down to 187.
INJURY WATCH: New York: F Carmelo Anthony - probable Sunday (shoulder). Miami: G Dwyane Wade Doubtful Sunday (hamstring), C Greg Oden questionable (back)
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-5.3) - Miami (-13.8) + home court (-3) = Miami -11.5
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "If they were to finish first in the Eastern Conference, the Heat would be a shoo-in for the NBA Finals, no? Their last four wins have come by an average of 21 PPG," says Covers Expert Bryan Power.
WHY BET THE KNICKS (34-43 ATS): New president of basketball operations Phil Jackson may clean house at the end of the season - and the first to depart may be head coach Mike Woodson. While Jackson goes on a "talent hunt," according to a report in the New York Post, he has apparently done little talking with Woodson, who is expected to take the fall for the team's struggles. "We haven't had any conversations," Woodson said. "My focus mainly has been on getting the team in the playoffs and when that time comes, it will happen."
WHY BET THE HEAT (35-38-2ATS): James has had to carry the bulk of the scoring load while swingman Dwyane Wade continues to recover from hamstring and Achilles injuries. Wade remains without a timetable to return, but James said his teammate is "looking better and better every day" and believes that "probably within the next week he should be back on the floor." Wade has been limited to 51 games this season but has been effective in limited action, averaging 19.2 points, 4.8 assists and 4.6 rebounds.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Miami.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings.
* Knicks are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings in Miami.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-five percent of the wagers are on the Heat -6.5.
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Memphis at San Antonio
In what could be a preview of a first round matchup the Spurs and Grizzlies collide Sunday at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. When NBA Handicappers research this matchup they'll find that Spurs have owned the series vs. Grizzlies winning all three meetings this season (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) and hit the hardwood 13-2 (11-4 ATS) the past fifteen encounters. Those breaking down series numbers further will find Spurs have a 9-0 (5-3-1 ATS) winning streak hosting Grizzlies and are 18-2 (10-9-1 ATS) the past twenty clashes in Alamo City. These same folks will have also unearthed that Grizzlies are currently ridding a 4-5 SU road skid with a cash draining 1-8 ATS mark at the betting window and enter the contest a brutal 3-11 SU/ATS facing a division opponent. Those numbers in hand easy to see why Spurs have opened 8-point favorites. But, before jumping in with both feet there are hidden gems among a sea of basketball betting numbers that one should consider. Spurs have been better at cashing on the road laying 7 or more (72.7%, 8-3 ATS) than at home (51.9%, 14-13 ATS). Spurs are 4-8 ATS after scoring =<95 points including 0-5 ATS as home favorite. Final betting nugget. League wide, winning teams with a .700 mark or above are just 18-23-2 ATS following a double digit loss which includes 4-4 ATS by Spurs.
Inside the Paint - Sunday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Most bettors were focused on the Final Four last night which saw UConn and Kentucky advance to the championship game on Monday. The Huskies pulled off the 63-53 upset of No. 1 seed Florida as six-point underdogs and even though the Badgers lost to Kentucky 74-73, they managed to cover as 1 ½-point ‘dogs.
The results in the NBA were very similar on Saturday as the underdogs went 3-3 straight up and 6-0 against the spread.
Will those trends continue Sunday?
Today’s card offers up on nine games on the hardwood, which includes three late-night battles on the West Coast and that’s where we’ll focus. Also, make a note that the Association is off tomorrow due to the NCAA Tournament finale between UConn and Kentucky.
Utah (24-52 SU, 31-39 ATS) at Golden State (47-29 SU, 36-37 ATS)
The Warriors are currently sitting in the sixth spot in the Western Conference but they don’t have a strong hold on that position. Fortunately, five of the final six games for Golden State will be against teams not playing in this year’s postseason.
Most books have Golden State listed as a 12-point favorite over Utah. The Warriors are coming off an easy 102-69 win against Sacramento on Friday, easily covering as an 8½-point home favorite. Including this win, Golden State has gone 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games.
Golden State has gone 25-13 SU at home this season, but only 17-19 ATS. As a double-digit home favorite, Mark Jackson’s team has gone 8-1 SU and 4-4-1 ATS this season. Total players should note that the ‘under’ has gone 7-2 in these situations.
Utah snapped a five-game losing skid on Friday after defeating New Orleans 100-96 at home. Despite the win, the Jazz are 2-9 in their last 10 and they’ve dropped five straight on the road.
Our friends at Doc Sports believe a cover for Golden State is doable based on current form and tendencies for both clubs. They explained, “This Utah team is particularly bad on the road, and even with some very favorable lines they have covered only 3 of their last 11 road games. They really have trouble scoring on the road, and their defense is very inconsistent. This is a team the Warriors can score a lot of points on, and their defense, which has been playing very well lately, should be able to hold Utah down to a real low score.”
Golden State has won all three meetings against Utah this season but it’s only managed to cover just one of the victories. However, the Warriors missed ATS victories by 1½ and a ½ point in the non-covers. The Jazz have scored 88, 87 and 90 points which has helped the ‘under’ cash in all three games.
Oklahoma City (55-20 SU, 40-33 ATS) at Phoenix (45-31 SU, 49-26 ATS)
Oddsmakers sent the Thunder out as one-point road favorites and the number quickly jumped up to 2½ and even three at some outfits. Everybody knows Oklahoma City is a serious contender while Phoenix is hoping to earn one of the final playoff spots in the Western Conference.
These teams met a month ago in the desert and Phoenix dropped Oklahoma City 128-122 as a six-point underdog. Both clubs shot over 50 percent and they combined for 28 bombs from 3-point land.
In the only other meeting between the pair, Oklahoma City stopped the Suns 103-96 at home on Nov. 3 and that line was 12 ½-points. We mention that because you can see how the oddsmakers have adjusted their power ratings on the Suns.
At home, Phoenix has gone 25-14 SU and 22-16 ATS this season.
Despite the great play by the Suns this season, VegasInsider.com expert Stephen Nover points out some key angles that could have you leaning to the visitor. He said, “Oklahoma City is 11-5-2 ATS following a defeat and 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times when playing on one day's rest. The Suns haven't been able to contain Kevin Durant, who is averaging 33.5 points in the first two games this season against Phoenix. Oklahoma City has an excellent track record against the Suns despite losing to them last time covering six of the past eight in the series and going 6-1 ATS during its last seven visits to Phoenix.”
The total for tonight’s matchup opened at 212 ½ and has held steady.
New Orleans (32-44 SU, 32-28 ATS) at Portland (49-28 SU, 42-35 ATS)
Portland and New Orleans have played to three entertaining games this season with all three outcomes decided by single digits. The Trail Blazers captured two of the first three, which includes a 110-107 home win on Dec. 21. Portland failed to cover the eight-point spread but the ‘over’ (213) was never in doubt in this game and the other two encounters as well.
The Trail Blazers had their four-game winning streak snapped on Friday as the team lost to Phoenix 109-93 as 4½-point home favorites. At home, Portland has gone 27-10 SU and 18-19 ATS.
Oddsmakers expect the club to bounce back tonight, listing Portland as a 10-point favorite and that number could go up if New Orleans All-Star forward Anthony Davis (back) doesn’t suit up. He played limited minutes on Friday as the team lost at Utah, 100-96.
The Pelicans were producing some decent profits in March but they’ve dropped four straight games and appear to be running out of gas late in the season.
Portland has a firm hold on the fifth seed in the West and including tonight’s game, the next three matchups are against non-playoff clubs.