NBA on ABC: Heat at Celtics, Thunder at Lakers
By Covers.com
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (+3.5, 188)
The Boston Celtics are heading toward oblivion and their next opponent could speed up their journey. The skidding Celtics will attempt to avoid a seventh consecutive loss when they host the Miami Heat and ex-teammate Ray Allen in a Sunday matinee. Boston saw its losing streak reach six games in stunning fashion, blowing a 27-point lead in Atlanta and falling in double overtime to the Hawks on Friday night. The skid, coming on the heels of a six-game winning streak, dropped the Celtics three games below .500.
Miami, which owns the best record in the Eastern Conference, has ripped off four straight victories after steamrolling the Detroit Pistons 110-88 on Friday night. The Heat have been rather ordinary away from home with a 10-9 record, but they won their last two road games in impression fashion by knocking off Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers on back-to-back nights. Boston is the first stop of a four-game road trip for Miami, which will have played 10 of 12 games away from home when it's over.
ABOUT THE HEAT (28-12, 20-20-0 ATS): Allen played a pivotal role in Boston's run to a championship in 2008, but the sight of him in a Miami uniform has to be galling for Celtics fans - particularly after he turned down a more lucrative offer from Boston to sign with the Heat in the offseason. Content to be a role player with Miami, Allen is averaging 11.4 points and shooting 44.6 percent from behind the arc. He told the Sun-Sentinel of South Florida he doesn't know what kind of greeting to expect. "I have great memories. ... I'll always cherish those moments," he said. "Regardless of how they respond to me, it won't change how I feel."
ABOUT THE CELTICS (20-23, 14-26-3 ATS): Guard Avery Bradley may feel a little extra pressure due to Allen's return. He replaced Allen in Boston's starting lineup last season, leading to speculation that was among the reasons Allen's opted to take his shooting talents to South Beach. Known as one of the league's better on-ball defenders, Bradley has his second-highest output with 14 points on 6-of-11 shooting against Atlanta. It was only the third time in 12 games that Bradley scored in double figures. He missed the first two months while recuperating from two shoulder surgeries.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 19-8-1 in the last 28 meetings in Boston.
* Home team is 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings.
* Heat are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Boston.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Miami beat the Celtics in seven games in the Eastern Conference finals last season, winning Game 6 in Boston behind 45 points from LeBron James.
2. Celtics PG Rajon Rondo is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles for Boston, which last lost six straight from April 4-15, 2007.
3. Allen, the NBA's career 3-point leader, scored 19 points in a 120-107 season-opening win over Boston.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (+3, 207)
The Los Angeles Lakers finally squeezed out a win on Friday to snap a four-game slide. If they want to make it back-to-back triumphs, the host Lakers will have to figure out a way around the NBA-best Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Los Angeles found a formula against the Utah Jazz on Friday with Kobe Bryant acting mainly as a distributor on offense while the team played strong defense.
The Thunder are making the final stop in a six-game road trip and have taken three of the first five after easily dispatching the Sacramento Kings on Friday. Oklahoma City is the top scoring team in the NBA and will test Los Angeles’ new-found defense with two of the best scorers in the league in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Lakers have won their last five games when allowing less than 95 points.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (34-10, 26-16-2 ATS): Oklahoma City has shown signs of fatigue on the current trip but had a day off on Saturday to rest up for the Lakers. The Thunder squandered a late lead in a loss at Golden State on Wednesday and got off to a sluggish start at Sacramento on Friday before busting out and pushing the lead to as much as 25 points in the third quarter en route to a 105-95 triumph. Sunday marks the end of a stretch of 11 of 13 games on the road for Oklahoma City, which included a 116-101 victory over the Lakers at Staples Center on Jan. 11. Durant went for 42 points and Westbrook added 27 and 10 assists as the Thunder shot 50.6 percent in the easy victory.
ABOUT THE LAKERS (18-25, 17-25-1 ATS): For all the talk of Los Angeles’ issues on offense, the team ranks among the top scoring teams in the NBA at an average of 102.3 points. The overlooked problem has been on the defensive end, where the Lakers rank in the bottom five in points allowed. They made a much stronger effort on that end against Utah on Friday, holding the Jazz to 37 points in the first half. Bryant handed out a season-high 14 assists while matching a season-low with only 10 field goal attempts in the 102-84 victory. Los Angeles held a team meeting before a loss to Memphis on Wednesday to air some grievances and looked like a more cohesive unit on Friday. The Lakers are still seven games below .500 but will face four straight teams with losing records after the Thunder exit Staples Center.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.
* Thunder are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Oklahoma City has taken each of the first two meetings this season and have won four straight and eight of the last 10 in the series.
2. Los Angeles coach Mike D’Antoni was reportedly given a vote of confidence by team management.
3. Lakers C Dwight Howard (shoulder) collected 17 points and 13 rebounds on Friday after leaving the previous game with the injury.
Inside the Paint - Sunday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Three seasons ago, the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Boston Celtics 4-3 in the 2009-10 NBA Finals. The championship was the second straight for the “Purple and Gold” and it was also their third consecutive trip to the finals for the club. In the 2007 season, Boston humbled Los Angles in six games of the finals.
Fast forward to the 2012-13 season and both teams are barely clinging on to that recent history. If you follow the Association daily, you obviously know these teams have no shot of winning this season or to be brutally honest, not in the near future either. Unless some serious changes are made!
It took them a couple months but the oddsmakers have finally noticed how listless these teams have performed. Despite losing in Game 7 of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals to Miami, Boston (20-23 straight up, 14-26 against the spread) is a 28/1 choice at Sportsbook.ag to win the finals this season.
Los Angeles (18-25 SU, 17-25 ATS) is listed at a 40/1 price and that number is still too low. It should probably be 100/1 but the oddsmakers don’t want to put at risk. However, they’re four games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and it’s an uphill battle here on out.
On Sunday, the two most recognizable franchises in the NBA can make a statement with home victories against the two teams that squared off in last year’s finals, Miami (28-12 SU, 20-20 ATS) and Oklahoma City (34-10 SU, 26-16 ATS).
Let’s take a closer look at the two nationally televised matchups on ABC, which tip at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Miami at Boston: The Heat opened as a 3½-point road favorite and bettors could be hesitant to back the defending champions because their road record is 10-9 SU and 8-11 ATS. However, Miami is facing a Boston team that has dropped six straight games. Three of those setbacks occurred at TD Garden, where the team has gone 13-9 SU and 8-12 ATS this season. As an underdog this season, Boston is just 5-11 against the number.
Miami beat Boston 120-107 at home in the season opener on Oct. 30 and it covered as a 6½-point favorite. This was a tight game down the stretch and a lot closer than the 13-point margin. Ray Allen sparked the Heat with 19 off the bench and the former Celtic will be making his first return to Boston on Sunday.
Including last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, the ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run between these teams. Sunday’s ‘over/under’ is hovering around 188 points. The Heat offense has started to click, posting 100-plus points in their last two games albeit against the Raptors and Pistons.
However, Boston has only eclipsed the century mark once during its current six-game slide and that came in Friday’s 123-111 overtime loss at Atlanta. Also, the ‘under’ has cashed in seven of the last eight games played at TD Garden and the lone ‘over’ ticket snuck in during an overtime loss to Chicago (99-100) on Jan. 18.
Oklahoma City at L.A. Lakers: The Thunder opened as a 3 1/2-point road favorite and the number dropped to three, which could seem a little low. Just over two weeks ago, Oklahoma City blasted Los Angeles 116-101 as a six-point favorite from the Staples Center. The Lakers didn’t have All-Star center Dwight Howard in the lineup but is he worth three points? If you’ve seen this guy play, you’re aware that he’s lost a step defensively and his offensive game doesn’t fit, which explains the daily trade rumors out of Los Angeles.
When the Lakers did have Howard suited up against OKC on Dec. 7, he had 23 points and 18 rebounds. Guess what? The Thunder failed to cover the number (7½) but they still notched a 114-108 win at home and that’s with L.A. outscoring the Thunder 33-25 in the final 12 minutes. To be fair, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol didn’t play in that loss and they’re both expected in action on Sunday.
Including Kobe Bryant, all four played on Friday and they cruised past Utah 102-82 as a five-point home favorite. The victory snapped a four-game losing skid for the Lakers. The Jazz aren’t a bad team but they don’t have a talented point guard to attack the Lakers, which is their major weakness on defense. Oklahoma City has that type of player and his name is Russell Westbrook. The All-Star out of UCLA scored 33 in the first meeting at home and 27 two weeks ago in Los Angeles.
The Thunder will be playing the final game of their six-game road trip, which has seen the team go 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in the first five contests. Including these outcomes, OKC has gone 15-7 SU and 12-8 ATS on the road this season.
The total is hovering around 207 points, which is down from the opener of 210. The Lakers have seen the ‘under’ go 13-9 at Staples Center and the Thunder are 13-9 to the ‘under’ on the road.
MVP Odds and Future Props
If you’re looking for a tightly contested wager, then you should turn your attention to this year’s Most Valuable Player award. Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant is now the 5/6 (Bet $120 to win $100) favorite at Sportsbook.ag while Miami’s LeBron James is a 7/5 (Bet $100 to $140) choice. After those two All-Stars, the Clippers’ Chris Paul and the Knicks’ Carmelo Anthony are next in line at 10/1 odds. In case you’re wondering, Kobe Bryant is listed at 25/1 (Bet $100 to win $2,500) and the Celtics’ Rajon Rondo has the same odds as well.
Another betting option at Sportsbook.ag that has value is the 2013 NBA Finals Possible Matchups prop. If you believe Oklahoma City and Miami will meet again, then take advantage of the 3/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $300). I personally don’t see anybody beating the Heat in the East and if you believe that statement, then perhaps check out these other options, which can create some nice hedge bets come the postseason.
Heat vs. Clippers (9/2)
Heat vs. Spurs (11/2)
Heat vs. Grizzlies (20/1)
Heat vs. Lakers (28/1)
Heat vs. Nuggets (32/1)
Heat vs. Warriors (65/1)
NBA Point Spreads and Betting Guide
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
The Celtics (20-23) host the rival Heat (28-12) in an afternoon matchup on network television. Despite the Celtics struggles of late (they have dropped 12 of their last 20), the Heat are not a lock to run away in this one, as they are only 10-9 away from home. Considering the recent history between these two teams and the players involved, both teams should be ready to put their best on the floor. The Heat’s best at this point is superior to the Celtic’s best though, and should be enough for them to cover the spread.
The Celtics and Heat aren’t the only two teams engaging in a premier matchup. The Lakers (18-25) vs. Thunder (34-10), and Knicks (26-15) vs. Hawks (25-18) are also scheduled to air on network television and cable, respectively. Finally, the Clippers (32-13) will look to avenge last night’s loss against the Blazers (22-21).
NBA Trends:
* The Heat have only covered two of their last eight games against Eastern Conference teams. The Celtics have failed to cover their last seven games. The Celtics have stayed UNDER the total in seven of their last eight home games. The Heat are 4-point road favorites with a total of 188.
* The Thunder have covered five of their last games against Pacific Division teams. The Lakers have covered only two of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Lakers have stayed UNDER the total in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. The Thunder are 3.5-point road favorites with a total of 206.5.
* The Pistons have covered seven of their last nine road games against teams with a losing home record. The Magic have failed to cover their last eight home games against teams with a road winning percentage of .400 or less. The Magic have gone OVER the total in 15 of their last 21 games. The Magic are -1.5 with a total of 194.5.
* The Hornets have covered eight of their last 11 games. The Grizzlies have covered four of their last five, but only once in their last six against Southwest Division teams. The Grizzlies have stayed UNDER the total in 12 of their last 17 games. The Grizzlies are -7.5 with a total of 177.5.
* The Hawks have covered their past four games against Eastern Conference teams. The Knicks have covered seven of their last nine games played on Sunday. The Knicks have stayed UNDER the total in their past five games. The Knicks are -5.5 with a total of 193.
* The Suns have covered five of their last seven games against teams with a losing record. The Mavericks have covered seven of their last eight games. The Suns have stayed UNDER the total in 21 of their last 30 games. The Mavericks are -8 with a total of 202.
* The Blazers have covered their past four road games. The Clippers have covered their last seven games played on Sunday. The Clippers have gone OVER the total in their last five on the back end of back-to-back games. The Clippers are -8.5 with a total of 191.5.
NBA Injuries:
* Clippers guard Chris Paul (knee) is OUT indefinitely.