NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, June 19

NBA Knowledge

Cleveland-Golden State

Last road team to win Game 7 on road in Finals was 1978 (Bullets @ Seattle). All six games in NBA Finals were decided by 11+, with home side winning four of the six. Cleveland scored 115-112-120 in its Finals wins, 89-77-97 in its losses- over is 3-0 in its wins, 0-3 in Warrior wins. How healthy are Curry/Iguodala? Golden State is 10-3 at home in playoffs, but only 4-3 in last seven home games. Cavaliers lost four of last six on the road.

In the playoffs this spring, under is 50-33-1

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31

Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9

Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1

Final: Favorites: 4-2, Over: 3-3

Armadillosports.com

Warriors look to avoid collapse
By Sportsbook.ag

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (72-30) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (88-17)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -5.0, Total: 207.5

The NBA title will be on the line when the Warriors host the Cavaliers in Game 7 on Sunday.

The Warriors looked like they were heading towards an easy repeat after defeating the Cavaliers in Cleveland in Game 4, but the team has been dominated since that victory. The Cavaliers have now won two straight games in this series and they have done so by a total of 29 points.

Cleveland has been outstanding on both ends of the floor, shooting 53.0% from the floor in Game 5 and 51.9% in Game 6. The Cavaliers also held the Warriors to just 36.4% shooting in Game 5 and 40.2% in Game 6. If Golden State does not find it’s touch offensively then it is almost a certainty that the team will be watching Cleveland celebrate a championship victory on the Oracle Arena hardwood.

One thing favoring the Cavaliers coming into this game is the fact that they are 21-9 ATS when playing only their second game in five days this season. That means that they respond well to rest and get the job done in the postseason.

The Warriors are, however, 12-4 ATS when revenging a loss this season and 23-9 ATS when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points over the past two seasons.

The Cavaliers will be at full strength coming into this game, but the Warriors are not going to have C Andrew Bogut (Knee). SF Andre Iguodala (Back) is also questionable for Golden State and he will likely not be able to play his best basketball even if he does suit up on Sunday.

The Cavaliers could have rolled over and come to peace with the fact that the Warriors were going to hoist their second straight Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy, but they turned things around and now head into Game 7 looking like the better team in this series.

SF LeBron James (26.3 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 7.5 APG, 2.4 SPG, 1.2 BPG in playoffs) has been the reason this team has been able to get back into the series, averaging 41.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 9.0 APG, 3.5 SPG and 3.0 BPG over the past two contests. With Andrew Bogut out for Golden State, James knows that he can attack the rim at will and he has been doing that these past few games. James has also shot 7-for-14 from three over the past two contests. His ability to shoot has made him unguardable in this series and he’ll likely be winning his third NBA title if he can knock down more shots on Sunday.

It’d be huge for James and the Cavaliers for PG Kyrie Irving (25.2 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) to show up in Game 7. Irving scored 30 or more points in Games 2 through 5 and it’d be big if he can do that again on Sunday. His shooting and ability to get to the rim takes a lot of pressure off of his teammates, but he needs to show up in what will be the biggest game of his career.

The Warriors won 73 games in the regular season, but none of that will matter if they do not win on Sunday. If Golden State is going to do that then it’s important that PG Stephen Curry (25.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) keeps his cool and plays smart in this one. Curry fouled out of Game 6 and was also ejected from the arena after throwing his mouthguard into the crowd. The Warriors are not going to be able to win this game if Curry isn’t keeping himself out of foul trouble. He needs to be disciplined on the defensive end and he’ll also need to knock down a ton of shots in this one.

SG Klay Thompson (24.7 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) must also hit his shots in this game. Thompson’s struggles in the first half were one of the main reasons that Golden State fell so far behind in Game 6. He needs to get off to a good start on Sunday or the Warriors may dig themselves too deep of a hole.

The last piece of the Warriors’ puzzle will be PF Draymond Green (14.7 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.9 BPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs). Green was a non-factor in Game 6, finishing with just eight points on 3-for-7 shooting. He also picked up five fouls and that can’t happen again on Sunday. He is the Warriors’ best defender and is now being counted on to protect the rim. Without Green on the floor, Golden State is not the same team that dominated the regular season.

Game 7 Props - Best Bets
VegasInsider.com

The NBA Finals concludes Sunday with Game 7 between the Warriors and Cavaliers from Oracle Arena. If you’re hesitant to back the side or total for the final contest in this series, then we suggest you take a closer look at the available player props.

Chris David

2 Units – Over Stephen Curry Total Field Goal Attempts 21.5 (-110)

I played this prop in Game 5 and Curry came through albeit it was tight. If the league’s MVP is on the court, he’s going to chuck and that’s not changing in Game 7. The key is 40 minutes and if Steve Kerr leaves him out there, he’ll get the job done. Even if the game gets out of hand one way or another, it’s rare to see the starters pulled until the last minute and I expect Curry to be hoisting all night.

2 Units – Over Richard Jefferson Total Points+Rebounds 9.5 (+100)

This 14-year NBA veteran continues be a key factor in this series and certainly a bit of a surprise. After averaging 16 minutes per game in the conference finals, Jefferson is up to 24 MPG against the Warriors and that time has increased his production. Outside of Game 1 when finished with three points and two boards while playing 12 minutes, RJ has come back with a combined 17, 17, 9, 9 and 9 points & rebounds in the last five games. With Kevin Love still shaky, I expect Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue to press the veteran in the finale which should give him a great chance to eclipse this number (9.5).

1 Unit – Over Draymond Green Total Rebounds+Assists (+100)

Even though we saw Green score 28 in Game 2 of this series, he’s a better job as a facilitator and the coaching staff should stress that role on Sunday. I don’t expect him to take as many shots in Game 7 and he’ll likely do whatever is needed to get the shooters involved. In the 15 playoff wins for the Warriors, Green is averaging 10.7 rebounds and 6.1 assists. If Golden State comes through, this prop should connect accordingly.

Kevin Rogers

2 Units - Kevin Love Under 11.5 Points (-120)

Not to state the obvious, but Love has been non-existent since suffering a concussion in the Game 2 loss at Golden State. He played only 12 minutes in the Game 6 victory at home, scoring seven points, while putting up a total of 20 points in the past three games. It's hard to think he'll bust out with the Cavaliers likely leaning on James and Irving in Game 7.

2 Units - J.R. Smith Under 2.5 Total Made Three-Point Field Goals (Even)

Smith has not shot the ball well at Oracle Arena in this series, hitting one three-pointer in each of the three games played in Oakland. He had just two attempts from downtown in the Game 5 victory, while making an average of 2.3 treys a game during this series. He hasn't had many attempts at Oracle Arena, so 'under' is the way to go.

1 Unit - Draymond Green What will he do first - Made Free Throw (-300)

Yes, this is some heavy wood to lay, but Green has made his last eight free throw attempts at Oracle Arena since going 5-of-9 from the line in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Green got the kinks out in Game 6 following his short suspension, as he should be able to knock out this prop easily.

Tony Mejia

2 Units - LeBron James Over 49.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)

He's been operating at an elite level over the past couple of games, scoring 41 points in back-to-back contests. While it's unlikely he tops 40 again, look for him to put together another strong effort.

1.5 Units - Stephen Curry Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115)

The Warriors are counting on his energy, which means he'll have to make plays and stay active even if his shots aren't falling. He's helped the Warriors all series with his rebounding, sticking his nose in there with the big boys.

1.5 Units - Draymond Green Over 1.5 Made 3-pointers (+120)

Opportunities will be there for Green, who is most comfortable shooting it at Oracle. Look for him to come up with a couple of long-range bombs.

NBA Finals Game 7 Preview
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Cleveland at Golden State (-5/207)

For the first time since 2013, the NBA Finals are going the distance.

Ray Allen’s heroic 3-pointer late in Game 6 spoiled the Spurs championship plans three years ago, forcing a Game 7 that the Heat captured 95-88 to win a second straight title. LeBron James tied Tommy Heinsohn’s NBA record for most points in a Game 7, pouring in 37 while grabbing 12 rebounds.

It’s going to take a similar effort to beat the Warriors in Oakland as the Cavs look to make history by becoming the first team ever to rally from a 3-1 deficit to win an NBA Finals.

It’s only the fourth time in 22 years that the title will come down to a single game and the first time in 50 years that a team has forced a deciding game after falling behind 3-1.

Golden State is hoping to repeat in order to validate its 73-win season, while the Cavs are looking to deliver Cleveland’s first championship of any kind since 1964.

This will be the 19th Game 7 in Finals history, and home teams have gotten the better of the matchups in 15 of 18, winning the last six times. A road team hasn’t won one of these since 1978, when the Washington Bullets beat the Seattle Supersonics, so yes, odds are certainly against the Cavs. Of course, that hasn’t stopped them from believing yet.

There’s not a lot we don’t know about the Cavs, a team that arrives as an underdog because the Eastern Conference is so much easier to navigate than the West. They’ve survived an in-season coaching change and Kevin Love’s obvious lack of cohesion with the rest of the group. They’re on the cusp of a championship.

In that sense, James has willed them like he said he would. Before last year, no player had ever averaged at least 30 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists in a Finals series. He’s on pace to do it for the second consecutive season. Add in his 2.7 steals and 2.2 blocks during this series, and his Finals 2016 production in these five statistical categories is unprecedented, according to the NBA. James has scored 41 points in each of the last two games. Michael Jordan is the only player with as many as three straight 40-point Finals games (he had four in a row in 1993). The only 40-point performances in a Finals Game 7 are from Jerry West (42 in 1969) and Elgin Baylor (41 in 1962).

In a postseason where it was openly debated whether he’d been surpassed as the face of the league by Steph Curry or in terms of production by the likes of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Kawhi Leonard, James has persevered and quieted all that talk. At 31 years old, he’s still the best player in basketball.

Unlike last year, he’s got the three highest-paid players on his roster, Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, and yes, Love, healthy and contributing. And yet, even though Irving has opened eyes, it’s still all on James. He’s the driving force. He’s the key to it all. If the Cavs win, he’ll avoid a gross 2-5 record in NBA Finals and re-enter the conversation as the best to have ever done it, getting halfway to Michael Jordan’s haul of six rings.

LeBron has scored 41 points in consecutive games. Does he have enough in the tank to pull off the unexpected? To become the first team to rally from a 3-1 deficit to win The Finals, Cleveland will have to hand Golden State a third consecutive loss – a streak the Warriors have never suffered in coach Steve Kerr’s two seasons.

The Warriors’ last three-game losing streak was Nov. 20-23, 2013, during the 2013-14 regular season. Golden State went through the entire 2015-16 regular season without losing back-to-back games before dropping Games 3 and 4 of the Western Conference Finals to the Thunder and Games 5 and 6 of The Finals to the Cavaliers. The Warriors are an all-time team. They’ve lost four games out of 53 at home. This next win, if they get it on Sunday, will be their 50th at Oracle Arena this season.

That’s why you can’t throw everything we’ve seen in the regular season out the window. Although we’ve seen throughout these Finals that the Cavs have been able to physically impose their will and ultimately knock a team that won 73 games down a few pegs, consistency is the key. It’s time to find out who is most strong-willed.

With that in mind, take a look at what Marreese Speights, who should play a role in Game 7 since Andrew Bogut is out, said about his MVP teammate.

“On Thursday night in Cleveland, during Game 6 of the NBA Finals, I saw something I’ve never seen before: Steph Curry … furious,” Speights wrote in the Players Tribune. “I mean, I’ve seen him get mad before. But when he got called for that sixth foul, that was, by far, the angriest I’ve ever seen him.

“You know what, though? I’m going to give you all some inside info. After the game, Steph wasn’t upset. He might have said one or two words, but then he got on his phone — he talks with his kids after the game, or his wife — and he moved on.

“And it was the same for the rest of us Steph’s gonna go off on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out and scores 50. With all the things the media has been saying about him, and everything on Twitter, I know he’s going to respond. I know it. And then all the other guys are going to fall into place. That’s how it works for us. Anytime anything happens with Steph — be it emotionally, or him getting hurt in the Houston series, or him getting ejected on Thursday night — that motivates us to take it to another level. So look out on Sunday.”

The Warriors will be facing immense pressure, but have been in must-win games all season due to their run at 73, which could pay dividends here. Keep in mind, the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award will be presented after Game 7. The award’s namesake is the king of winner-take-all games in championship series: Russell went 5-0 in Finals Game 7s, averaging 20.4 points and 32.0 rebounds. Can Curry, in his own way, be that great?

There’s no question Golden State will need him to be at his best. The reigning two-time MVP has neglected blame so far, but Game 7 revolves around his ability to impose his will on the game and promote a faster pace.

Total bettors watched the ‘over’ connect in Game 6 of the finals on Thursday and that outcome was helped with the pair combining for 65 points in the fourth quarter.

For the finale, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 207 and most betting shops have dropped the number to 206½ as of Saturday.

VegasInsider.com NBA totals expert Chris David believes you can handicap Game 7 with two different approaches.

“If you’re leaning to trends both this season and historically, the ‘under’ is an easy look on Sunday. The last four Game 7’s of the NBA Finals have all leaned to the low side and all of the outcomes were extremely tight with teams putting an extra emphasis on possessions. The argument to that angles is this series hasn’t seen a competitive game and that has created a looser style of play which has produced a few ‘over’ tickets,” explained David.

Depending where and when you’ve placed your wagers on the first six games, you could have differing results but most bettors have seen the ‘over/under’ go 3-3 in this series.

Another trend that could have you leaning to the ‘under’ is based on the Warriors’ total tendencies at Oracle Arena. The last two years, Golden State has seen the ‘under’ go 16-5-3 (76%) in the playoffs which includes an 8-4-1 (67%) record this postseason.

“Using angles and systems that have been documented are a part of my handicapping by I’m fully aware that trends aren’t always your friends,” said David. “Current form is a key factor and nobody can ignore what Cleveland has done recently. The Cavaliers have scored 120, 112 and 115 points in their three wins against a club that is known for its great team defense. Including those results, Cleveland is now 15-0 in the playoffs when they score over a 100 points. With Bogut out and Andre Iguodala not playing at 100 percent, the Warriors certainly aren’t the same team defensively.”

“I believe Cleveland will be able to carry over its offensive momentum to the Bay Area and even though Golden State shot poorly (36%, 40%) in the last two games, it still put up 97 and 101 points in those losses. If the Warriors shoot in the forties on Sunday, they’ll easily eclipse 100-plus points and I expect them to do so. In this particular matchup, I’m going to shy away from the Game 7 angles and lean to the ‘over’ (206½) in the final.

Iguodala’s back issue is worrisome, but the Warriors anticipate him being effective enough to rely upon for his normal of minutes. How well he feels and plays should be Game 7’s chief x-factor.

NBA Finals Game 7 Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-5, 207)

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one victory away from ending the city's 52-year sports championship drought when they visit the defending champion Golden State Warriors in Sunday's Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Cleveland is also looking to become the first team in NBA Finals history to recover from a 3-1 series deficit while Golden State strives to bounce back from two disappointing closeout failures, including an embarrassing performance in Game 6 in which two-time MVP Stephen Curry was ejected after throwing his mouthpiece and hitting a fan.

Cleveland's last sports title was won by the 1964 Browns - before the NFL's Super Bowl era - and forward LeBron James is doing his part to back up his vow to bring a championship to the city with back-to-back 41-point performances. The Warriors opened the door for the Cavaliers in Game 5 when stellar defensive forward Draymond Green served a suspension and the Game 6 meltdown marked a frustrating night for the Curry family as wife Ayesha accused the NBA Finals of being "absolutely rigged for money" before sinking into full retreat mode and deleting her social-media comments. Stephen Curry said Saturday that "if we come up short, we'll all be very, very disappointed," in regards to two opportunities already having been squandered while Cavaliers forward LeBron James is feeling confidence now that his squad has turned the series into a one-game winner-take-all. "You don't put too much more added pressure on it because it's a Game 7," James said at Saturday's press conference. "One thing we all know is it's the last game of the season, so it's not like you're preserving any energy, be out there saying, 'OK, I've got to keep my body ready for the next game.' There's no next game."

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 5-point home favorites for this huge Game 7. They were bet down to -4.5 for a short period of time before being quickly bet back to -5. The total open at 206 and has bet up to 207. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: James is averaging 30.2 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists in the series and rose his play to even higher levels with Cleveland facing elimination. Point guard Kyrie Irving also has performed well in the series with three 30-point outings - a high of 41 - while averaging 27.3 points, and he is attempting to put the long-discussed Cleveland championship drought out of his mind. "After the game, we can worry about the rest of that stuff," Irving said at Saturday's press conference. "History will be made either way, regardless of both teams, win or lose. But we're just really focused on what we can control, and (Sunday's) game is just living in the moment."

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State recorded an NBA-best 73-9 record in the regular season but things have been a bit different in the last two playoff series and the Warriors have dropped eight games overall in the postseason. "At the end of the day, we knew this wouldn't be a walk in the park," Green said at Saturday's press conference. "It's hard. It's hard to win a championship. But we've never really been a team to lack confidence. We feel like we can do anything. That's going to always be our mindset." Curry has recovered from a slow start in the series by averaging 31 points over the past three games but Golden State is getting practically nothing from small forward Harrison Barnes, who is averaging 2.5 points on 2-of-22 shooting over the past two games.

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on two days rest.
* Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0-2 in the last six meetings in Golden State.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Warriors last four home games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Cavaliers last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

CONSENSUS: It's close, but the public are giving the defending champs a very slight edge in Game 7, with 53 percent of wagers on the Warriors. When it comes to the total, bettors are hammering the Over, with 73 percent of bettors on it.