NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, June 4th, 2017

NBA Finals Game 2 Preview
By Tony Mejia
Vegasinsider.com

Cleveland at Golden State

Complaints over the NBA playoffs not being competitive got no reprieve on Thursday. The opening quarter of Finals Game 1 was riveting, but Golden State covered as a first-half favorite and then put a 1-0 series lead in its pocket with a 33-20 third-quarter edge fueled by a 13-0 start after action tipped for the break.

Both teams threw down spectacular dunks and dished out deft passes. Only one turned the ball over and failed to consistently play lockdown defense, forfeiting any chance of keeping things interesting.

The Warriors beat the Cavs 113-91 and were never seriously challenged after Kevin Durant ended a run that had cut their lead to 80-68 with under three minutes left in the third by draining a jumper that restored order.

Trust that the stretch of basketball the Cavs focus most on in preparation for Game 2 will be those three minutes where they went on an 8-2 run to threaten to make it a game again. Richard Jefferson was in there and created opportunities. Kevin Love mixed it up and battled on the offensive boards to generate second chances. Things slowed down some and Stephen Curry threw the ball away twice, making half of the four miscues the Warriors committed in tying an NBA Finals record for fewest turnovers.

Love was essentially the center looking to defend Zaza Pachulia in a group that had LeBron James and Jefferson at the forwards and Irving and J.R. Smith at the guards. While you'll likely see that group take the floor at some point, keep in mind Draymond Green wasn't in the game for that stretch.

One of the most impressive things about Game 1 for Golden State was that it was able to survive the periods where the Defensive Player of the Year candidate who doubles as its emotional leader was off the floor due to foul trouble. Green ended up a plus-12, while the player who best helped atone for his absences, Andre Iguodala, ended up a plus-14. Both make James work for every inch whenever they're out there, often bottling Cleveland up.

James' pick-and-rolls and perhaps more of those involving Kyrie Irving will likely be the Cavs' weapon of choice in Game 2, but Golden State simply doesn't allow for a halfcourt game due to the pace of its offense. The Warriors are going to scoot, which means the Cavs will have to either get stops to disrupt their rhythm or get into their own sets faster in an effort to hang with the pace.

Jefferson can serve as the primary defender on Durant, taking some of the burden off James, but that seems like a temporary fix. At this point, those who went in on Durant as Finals MVP (2/1) are sitting pretty as the clubhouse leaders since it doesn't appear like the Cavs have a decent answer for him.

Constant double-teams will create wide-open opportunities, but Cleveland may indeed have to sell out defensively and force Klay Thompson, Green and Iguodala to beat them from the perimeter with those clean looks. That group went 2-for-11 in Game 1, highlighted by Iggy's make on his lone attempt to close out the first quarter.

Durant set the tone by not settling for jumpers and attacking every time there was even the hint of a window. He used the respect for his shot to buy attention and used his pump fake to immediately dash towards the bucket with his wide strides. He scored 38 and shot 3-for-6 from 3-point range, while Stephen Curry added 28 points and 10 assists while making 6-for-11 from beyond the arc.

It should definitely be disconcerting that Thompson and Green combined to shoot 1-for-10 and the Warriors still won by 22. Ian Clark came off the bench and missed all three great opportunities. Golden State shot 12-for-33 (36.4 percent), which is a clip that the Cavs would live with in every game of the series, yet the aggressiveness with which Durant and others attacked the rim, selflessly passing it when drawing defenders carved up their interior defense.

Although they only had him for one possession this season, the Cavs missed ex-Warrior Andrew Bogut, who they signed once he accepted a buyout. Bogut was injured immediately and no Plan B featuring the likes of Larry Sanders and Edy Tavares. Channing Frye didn't even get off the bench.

The Warriors dished out 31 assists and forced 20 turnovers while holding Cleveland to 35 percent. Defensively, it's not likely they'll have a better game. Durant's six dunks were a career-high.

It will be interesting to see what side bettors line up on since the Cavs are likely to get a better effort from the likes of Tristan Thompson, whose excellent postseason show met with turmoil in a scoreless performance over 22-plus minutes where he managed just three rebounds and was neutralized. There's also the angle that James is well-versed in rebounding from early deficits.

"LeBron has struggled to win NBA Finals openers in his career, falling to 1-7 following the blowout loss in Game 1," said VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers. "However, his teams have found a way to rebound in Game 2’s of the NBA Finals by winning four of the past five. Granted, the only loss came in last year’s Finals to Golden State, but that was an anomaly as James’ teams are 3-1 on the road in his last four Game 2’s in the NBA Finals, including an overtime win at Golden State in 2015."

The Warriors won Game 2 last year 110-77 despite Cleveland succeeding in slowing down tempo, winning the first 12 minutes 21-19. The Cavs were held to 33 points after halftime that night and come off an opener where they managed to score just 39 after the break. The total, as a result, was never threatened.

Despite a high-scoring first quarter that saw a combined 65 points posted, the game turned very sloppy and wound up easily going ‘under’ the closing number of 225.

For Game 2, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 222½ and that number is now listed as low as 220½ at a few betting shops.

VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David leaned to the ‘under’ on Thursday and believes we’ll see that trend continue in Game 2.

He explained, “Golden State’s defense is overshadowed by the juggernaut of its offense but it’s the main reason why the team has gone 13-0 in the playoffs. The Cavaliers were completely shut down for 3½ quarters on Thursday and the lone bright spot for Cleveland came in the first when Draymond Green was yanked five minutes into the game after picking up his second foul. After he left, the Cavs scored 22 points and finished with 30 in the quarter. For the rest of the game, Cleveland couldn’t break 22 in a quarter and a lot of that had to with Green, Thompson and Iguodala.”

“I don’t see that changing and while some pundits believe the Cavaliers will get going on Sunday, I would disagree. If Tyronn Lue wants to avoid a sweep, he needs to slow the game down, bleed the clock and hope his team is still within striking distance come the fourth quarter. It’s easier said than done against Golden State but that’s the recipe for success. Over the last two finals, Cleveland held Golden State to 93.5 PPG in its six wins and the ‘under’ went 5-1 in those games. Meanwhile, Golden State has gone 8-1 in its last nine playoff games against Cleveland when scoring triple digits. Even though the number has dropped, I would lean to the ‘under’ in Game 2 and I would also play the Cavaliers team total ‘under’ (106 ½) as well.”

Including the result from Game 1, the ‘under’ has gone 7-5-1 in the last 13 postseason meetings between these teams.

Warriors looking for 2-0 lead
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com

The Cavaliers will be hoping to even up the series in Sunday’s Game 2 against the Warriors.

After a long wait for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the Warriors absolutely destroyed the Cavaliers. Golden State won the game 113-91 as a seven-point favorite, and it was pretty much a blowout once the second quarter started. The Warriors could have been up around 20 at the half, but they ended up missing a ton of layups and open looks. They still shot 42.5% on an absurd 106 shots from the floor, yet the Cavaliers were just 30-for-86. Cleveland also turned the ball over a miserable 20 times, which is something that the team absolutely needs to clean up heading into Game 2. The Cavaliers also need to find a way to make plays defensively, as they recorded zero steals in the entire game. The Warriors, meanwhile, had 12. The trends in this game don’t necessarily favor Cleveland either. The Cavaliers were just 13-18-1 ATS this season when coming off of a regular season loss. They’ll need to find a way to bounce back. Fortunately for them, they are 12-2 SU and 7-5-2 ATS in the postseason. They’ve consistently been excellent and will still be confident in their ability to execute here.

If the Cavaliers are going to find a way to tie this series with the Warriors on Sunday then they will need more from their supporting cast in this one. SF LeBron James (32.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 7.1 APG, 2.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG; all player stats are postseason stats) did everything he could in Game 1, finishing with 28 points, 15 rebounds, and eight assists in the loss. PG Kyrie Irving (24.5 PPG, 5.4 APG, 1.3 SPG) wasn’t great, but he still scored 24 points. PF Kevin Love (17.0 PPG, 11.1 RPG), meanwhile, was a monster on the glass, but can definitely afford to play better offensively. But the story in this game was Cleveland’s role players failing to show up. C Tristan Thompson (8.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and SG J.R. Smith (6.4 PPG) scored just three points combined in the first game of this series. Those are two of the team’s starters, and that simply cannot continue. The Cavaliers also need SG Kyle Korver (5.9 PPG) to get it going moving forward. He was 0-for-3 from the outside in Game 1, and his looks were all open ones. And while you can say the team didn’t lose the game because of three missed shots from a bench player, the Cavaliers can’t afford to miss out on any opportunities to steal momentum. Also, Cleveland needs to find a way to defend better overall. The team was miserable in transition and also switched too often. The Cavaliers can’t afford to let smaller defenders switch onto guys like Kevin Durant, as that will pretty much be an automatic bucket.

I think it’s safe to say that SF Kevin Durant (26.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.1 BPG) missed playing in the NBA Finals. Durant was the best player on the court in Game 1, finishing with 38 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists in 38 minutes of action. Durant was 3-for-6 from the outside in the game, and he really didn’t take many contested looks either. A lot of that had to do with the attention that PG Stephen Curry (28.5 PPG, 5.9 APG, 5.5 RPG, 2.0 SPG) commands. The Cavaliers were constantly sending extra defenders in Curry’s direction when the Warriors were in transition, and that resulted in a couple of wide-open paths to the basket for Durant. Cleveland knows that leaving Curry at any point is probably the most dangerous thing that the team can do. Despite Durant’s insane numbers, Curry also had 28 points and 10 assists on 11-for-22 shooting from the floor and 6-for-11 shooting from three. His explosiveness from last season is back, and he does not look like the injured player he was during last year’s playoffs. Expect him to continue to play well in this series. Also look for SG Klay Thompson (13.8 PPG) and PF Draymond Green (13.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 6.8 APG, 2.0 BPG, 1.9 SPG) to play better offensively. Both guys did not do much on that end in Game 1, but they are too good to continue to struggle. And they also were both responsible for playing shutdown defense, which is actually more important for this Warriors team.

NBA Finals Game 2 Betting Preview: Cavaliers at Warriors
Covers.com

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 220.5)

The Golden State Warriors sent a harsh message to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and will try to take a 2-0 lead in the series when they host Game 2 on Sunday. The Warriors thrashed the Cavaliers 113-91 in Thursday's opener as Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry had little trouble navigating the Cleveland defense.

Durant is making his first Finals appearance since losing to LeBron James and the Miami Heat as a member of the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2012, and he certainly looked right at home in his return trip with 38 points, eight rebounds, eight assists and zero turnovers in the win. "To have a game like that when he's playing that way, it's tough to beat," Golden State forward Draymond Green told reporters. "Thirty-eight, eight, eight, zero turnovers? I mean that's -- we're real tough to beat when he's doing that. ... We're going to seek him out, get him the ball, and guys got to defend him. He was amazing (in Game 1), and I expect nothing less in the rest of the games." The Cavaliers lost Game 1 at Golden State last spring and fell down 3-1 before coming back to win the series, and James is not panicking. "Just get focused on Game 2," James told reporters. "We made a lot of mistakes. There's nothing really needs to be said. We know we're capable of playing a lot better. We didn't play as well as we know we're capable of, so we look forward to the next one."

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 8-point home chalk for Game 2 and, was bet up as high as 9 until fading down half-point to 8.5. The total sit the betting board as 221.5 and has dropped down to 220.5. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Quality teams off a blowout loss normally bounce back in the next game, but that was not the case last year. Cleveland lost Game 1 of the 2016 NBA Finals by 15 points at Golden State last season and then the Cavaliers lost Game 2 by 33 points. Despite that, Cleveland won Game 3 by 30 points and overcame a 3-1 series deficit to still win the championship. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself this year. Golden State is a different team now with Kevin Durant on board. The betting market does not think Cleveland will bounce back in Game 2 on Sunday night. The line is a full basket higher than Game 1." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - C Edy. Tavares (Out For Season, hand)

Warriors - SF Kevon Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip)

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (63-33 SU, 44-48-4 ATS, 56-39-1 O/U): Cleveland imported talent during the regular season in an effort to get James the help he desired but point guard Deron Williams, shooting guard Kyle Korver and power forward Derrick Williams combined to go scoreless on 0-of-9 shooting off the bench in Game 1. James contributed 28 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists but also committed eight of the team's 20 turnovers. "I know we will play better," Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "When we're not making shots and they get off in transition off of rebounds and stuff like that, they're tough to guard. So, I know we can play better. We will play better."

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (80-15 SU, 49-43-3 ATS, 41-54-0 O/U): Golden State committed just four turnovers in the romp and pulled away easily despite All-Stars Green (3-of-12) and Klay Thompson (3-of-16, 0-of-5 from 3-point range) enduring tough shooting nights in the opener. Durant (14-of-26) and Curry (11-of-22, 10 assists) picked up the scoring slack while the team defensive effort held Cleveland to 34.9 percent shooting. "Our defensive effort allowed us to work through that struggle on the offensive end and keep a lead and just build the flow up," Curry said during an ESPN interview. "As the game went on we got more comfortable, shots started to fall and the ball was hopping, and that's the formula for us to be successful against this Cavs team. We have to defend, try to make it tough, knowing they have great scorers."

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.
* Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 9-1-2 in the last 12 meetings in Golden State.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent are siding with the road underdog Cleveland Cavaliers and 62 percent are on the Over.

Game 2 Props - Best Bets
VegasInsider.com

The 2017 NBA Finals continues Sunday with Game 2 between the Cavaliers and Warriors from Oracle Arena. If you’re hesitant to back the side or total for the second installment in this series, then we suggest you take a closer look at the available player props.

With a little bit of luck, our trio of NBA experts produced a 6-3 overall record for Game 1 and those winners produced over five units of profit.

Game 1 Results

Chris David: 3-0 (+500)
Kevin Rogers: 1-2 (-135)
Tony Mejia: 2-1 (+285)

Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 2 below.

Chris David

2 Units – Over Kyrie Irving Total Points 26 (-105)

Even though he’s been better at home in this year’s postseason, I believe Irving is the only Cleveland player with a distinct advantage over the Golden State defense and I’m including LeBron. He matched up with the athleticism of the Warriors and led the Cavaliers with 22 attempts from the field while finishing with 24 points and he hardly played in the fourth quarter. Defensively, he’s not a great player but he can finish above the rim and I would expect him to be even more aggressive on Sunday. He only took one free throw attempt which came on a chuck from 3-point land. That number should increase in Game 2 and his point total will as well.

1.5 Units – Under Kyle Korver Total Points 6.5 (-120)

I rode the Korver ‘under’ in the opener and I’m going to come back with it on Sunday after he put up a bagel in Game 1. He finished 0-for-3 from the field and all of his attempts were from 3-point land. I was a little surprised that he saw 20 minutes of action in Game 1 but the contest got out of hand and the reserves were deservingly used. Barring another blowout, his minutes should decrease and his ability to get a clean look versus this defense will again be difficult. In 14 games in this year’s playoffs, Korver has eclipsed this number (6.5) just five times and I’m expecting it to go ‘under’ again.

1.5 Units – Under Klay Thompson Total Points 17 (-115)

Playing the ‘due’ factor in betting can tear your bankroll to shreds and for those of you expecting Klay Thompson to get going, I wish you luck. He’s one of the best shooters in the game but he’s in a serious funk and Golden State can afford to live without his offense, as long as his defense is at a high level. He’s only averaging 13.8 PPG in the playoffs and he’s managed to tie or eclipse this number (17) just four times in 13 playoff games and all of those results took place outside of the Bay Area. I would expect his struggles to continue Sunday but look for a breakout at Cleveland.

Kevin Rogers

2 Units - Under Kevin Durant Total Points 29.5 (-110)

It's seem to easy to go against what Durant accomplished in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Durant stepped up in his Golden State Finals debut by scoring 38 points, with many of those points coming on easy dunks. Discounting Game 2 of the first round against Portland since he sat out, in three other playoff games in which he scored at least 30 points, he scored 18 or fewer twice in the following game.

2 Units - Over Tristan Thompson Total Points + Rebounds Over 17.5 (-120)

Thompson was non-existent in Game 1 for Cleveland by not registering a point and pulling down only four rebounds in 22 minutes of action. The forward posted three double-doubles in last year's Finals, while not putting together consecutive single-digit scoring performances.

1 Unit - Under Kevin Love Total 3-Point Attempts 6.5 (Even)

Love hoisted up six three-point attempts in the Game 1 loss, knocking down three treys. The key to this number staying 'under' the total is Cleveland being competitive so Love isn't just throwing up three-pointers in a blowout. In last year's Finals, Love never attempted more than five three-pointers in any of the seven games against the Warriors.

Tony Mejia

2 Units – Over Kyrie Irving Total Points + Rebounds + Assists 34 (-105)

The Cavs will likely call for LeBron to expend more energy on the defensive end, which means there should be more opportunities for Irving to be the offensive catalyst. One of the better iso players in the league, expect him to be heavily involved creating shots and should also be featured heavily in pick-ad-rolls. He'll scoop up a few rebounds to aid the cause and should be even more productive than he was in a solid performance in the series opener.

2 Units – Over Richard Jefferson Total Points + Rebounds 9 (-120)

The Cavs made a bit of a run in the second half when he entered the fray to take some pressure off James by defending Durant. It would be surprising not to see him again get extended minutes, so we should see him put together a productive Game 2 where he'll hit the boards and be challenged to keep the Warriors defense honest by taking his clean looks and getting into the paint.

1 Unit – Over Klay Thompson Total Points 17 (-115)

Despite an 0-for-5 night from 3-point range, Thompson remained locked in defensively and didn't allow his 3-for-16 shooting to factor into the other parts of his game. Because of the adjustments that the Cavs will have to make on their end to limit Durant and Curry, he's going to have to remain aggressive and take his looks. All it takes him is one make to get warm. Thompson has averaged just 13.8 points this postseason, but averaged over 22 during the regular season. Look for a strong bounce-back game where he reaches the 20-point mark for the first time since May 8, when the Dubs closed out Utah.