NBA Betting News and Notes Sunday, June 5

NBA Knowledge

Cleveland-Golden State

Warriors won last six games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; Curry/Thompson combined to score 20 points in Game 1, their lowest total of season, and they still won easily. Golden State has had time to rest now; they're 10-1, 9-2 vs spread at home in playoffs. Cleveland is 12-3 in playoffs, losing three of last four road games. Guards on Cleveland aren't as long, athletic as Thunder's, a problem against Curry-Thompson, when they get warmed up again. Warriors' bench was +55 in Game 1. JR Smith played 18:00 before he took his first shot in last game- they obviously need a lot more from him

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31

Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9

Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1

Final: Favorites: 1-0, Over: 0-1

Armadillosports.com

NBA Finals Game 2 Preview
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Cleveland at Golden State (-6.5/208.5)

Every playoff series is about adjustments. Thursday night’s Game 1 reaffirmed the superiority of Golden State’s depth, a huge reason it won the 2015 NBA Finals over the depleted Cavaliers.

Losing a game where they limited Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to 20 combined points could be viewed as disconcerting by the Cavs behind closed doors, but there is actually plenty for the to build on in spite of a 104-89 loss that saw them outscored 30-21 in the fourth quarter.

With an extra day to prepare for Game 2, head coach Tyronn Lue and his staff can now devise some new strategies to try and ensure that Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa, who combined for 31 points on 13-for-15 shooting, don’t go off again. Cleveland coaches have examined what worked lineup-wise and what didn’t, so we’ll likely see a far different substitution pattern out of Lue.

Channing Frye, who had played a major role in the sweep of Atlanta and conference finals win over Toronto, got just seven minutes and took one shot. He averaged 13.8 points in 19.3 minutes per game against the Hawks in the series where the Cavs looked their best, firing up 3-pointers and opening things up with a faster pace. Against the Raptors, he shot 63 percent and averaged 9.0 points per game, so Lue lamented being unable to get him more minutes to allow him to impact the game more. The first-year head coach has already divulged that Frye will be out there more often on Sunday, hoping his ability to space the floor will punish double-teams the Warriors consistently sent at LeBron James.

James will have to make adjustments himself. Despite 23 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists, there were instances where he could’ve been more aggressive. He looked to put the ball on the ground and get to the rim at times, but also had instances where he was isolated against the much smaller Curry and failed to get a bucket. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love combined for 43 points on 39 field goal attempts in part because James made an effort to get both going, but since the Cavs didn’t get their desired result, it remains to be seen whether their approach changes.

J.R. Smith attempted just three shots, all 3-pointers, despite playing 36 minutes. Only Matthew Dellavedova (-19) and Iman Shumpert (-15) had a worse plus/minus than Smith (-13), as none of James wing partners were able to get it going. Richard Jefferson, who is expected to play a large role in this series due to his versatility, was also just 1-for-3. Better ball movement must lead to one of those guys breaking out to help field a more balanced offense.

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers expects to see changes yield results for Cleveland given recent history in Game 2.

“A split through the first two games of the NBA Finals has been the norm recently as each of the past seven years we haven’t seen a team go up 2-0 in this round. In four of those instances, the team that won Game 2 actually lost the series opener by double-digits, so there is value in Cleveland on the money-line at +230,” Rogers said.

“LeBron James-led teams have done a solid job of rebounding from a loss in playoff series openers. As a member of the Heat and Cavaliers, James has won nine straight Game 2’s of a playoff series after dropping Game 1, including three straight victories in this situation in the NBA Finals. In fact, all three wins came in the role of a road underdog, winning at Golden State (2015), San Antonio (2014), and Oklahoma City (2012).”

Although this is not a must-win considering the series shifts to Cleveland for games on Wednesday and Friday, James wants this Game 2 in Oakland badly and was able to steal it in OT last year in spite of the absence of Irving and Love. Since Game 1 got away from the Cavs late in the third quarter and early in the fourth with James on the bench, perhaps we’ll see him tell Lue that he wants to play closer to all 48 minutes here.

LeBron played a season-high 46 minutes in the Game 4 loss in Toronto during the Eastern Conference finals, but averaged 45.8 minutes against the Warriors in the 2015 Finals, which included playing 50 minutes in last year’s Game 2. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him sit just a few minutes here, so keep that in mind when handicapping any James-related props.

Steve Kerr is looking to become only the second head coach in NBA history to win titles in his first two tries, a feat that dates back to 1948-49 when John Kundla won with the Minneapolis Lakers. Despite Thursday’s victory, he saw plenty that can be tweaked and improved upon, starting with the Splash Brothers shooting a combined 8-for-27, including 4-for-13 from 3-point range. Sure, both Curry and Thompson had off nights, but Kerr always feels he can do more to make their job easier, ensuring cleaner looks.

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David is counting on the Warriors being more efficient as they look to end LeBron's Game 2 reign.

“The NBA Finals haven’t seen a team go up 2-0 since the 2008 postseason when the Boston Celtics captured the first two games at home against the L.A. Lakers. While that angle is hard to ignore, it’s tough to dismiss the fact that the Warriors are 10-1 at home in the playoffs. More importantly, they’ve covered nine of those games,” said David. “Golden State opened as a higher favorite in this game and based on the respect from the oddsmakers, I’d go against the split (1-1) trend and look for the Warriors to go up 2-0 on Sunday.”

It’s impossible to envision Golden State will have a 45-10 edge in bench points against the Cavs again, so the defending champs must get a better effort out of all their starters. One positive from Game 1 was that Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut each got easy looks that they were able to turn into points as a result of excellent ball movement. Barnes got off to a fast start and ended up 6-for-10 from the field, while Bogut shot 5-for-7, getting his buckets right at the rim in matching his second-highest scoring output of the postseason despite playing only 15 minutes.

Bigs Bogut, Festus Ezeli, Anderson Varejao and Marreese Speights played just 30 combined minutes as the Warriors opted for small ball more often than not. Despite often being without a true rim protector, the Warriors limited Cleveland’s opportunities at the rim, forcing nine missed layups that the Cavs could and should’ve made, by Lue’s count.

With Frye set to get more minutes and both teams hoping to shoot better than the 33 percent each managed from beyond the arc in Game 1, we could see a higher-scoring contest on Sunday after the ‘under’ came in rather easily in the opener, staying well below 210.

The total on Game 2 has been adjusted and opened at 207, getting bet up to 208.5 since according to VI’s David, that outcome was directly attributed to poor shooting.

”Golden State’s defense is vastly underrated and their effort on that side of the court has helped the ‘under’ go 7-4 at Oracle Arena in the playoffs. The Warriors have held six opponents under 100 during this span and four under 90 points. It’s easy to think Cleveland will turn it around on Sunday but it just doesn’t match up well with the Warriors,” David explained. ”Dating back to last year’s finals, the Cavs are averaging 91.7 points per game versus the Warriors and two of the better efforts (100, 95) were helped with overtime. I believe Cleveland will get on track at home offensively but would fade the offense again in Game 2 and take its team total ‘under’ (101).”

Thursday’s broadcast was the most-watched Game 1 in NBA Finals history, so since the start time moves up an hour for Sunday’s primetime start, you can bet there’s going to be a ton of attention being paid to this one. Neither team played the series opener they hoped for, but both know there’s a ton of time left and work to do. The Cavs hope to steal homecourt advantage. The Warriors are out to hold serve. Both will look to settle in and make the shots they normally would, something that eluded the finalists in Game 1.

NBA: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Cleveland at Golden State

Cavaliers strategy was pretty clear in game-one, let anyone but Steph Curry (11 pts), Klay Thompson (9 pts) beat you. However, it backfired as Golden State’s supporting cast lead by Shaun Livingston scoring a personal postseason best 20 points off the bench took the opener 104-89. Warriors have now beaten Caves six straight times (5-1 ATS) since last June and have improved to 10-1 at Oracle Arena in these playoffs with a 9-2 mark against the betting line. The Warriors are currently 6.5 point favorites at Bovada.lv.

A Cleveland backer ? Here’s one reason to feel confident about Cavaliers chances. James' teams are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in NBA Finals after losing game-one including a 95-93 overtime win as 7.5 point underdogs in Oakland last year.

NBA Finals Game 2 Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-6.5, 208.5)

Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry combined for 20 points on 27 shots and the Golden State Warriors still took Game 1 of the NBA Finals by 15 points. The Cleveland Cavaliers, who visit the Warriors for Game 2 on Sunday, are searching for answers after being outscored on the bench and outworked on the offensive end in the setback.

Cleveland is down one game to Golden State in the Finals for the second straight season but came away from Game 1 pleased with how it played on the defensive end and confident going forward. “Game 2 will be different,” Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. “Gotta make a couple of adjustments and do a few things better, but overall if you have a chance to hold Steph and Klay to 20 points combined and outrebound this team also, get to the free-throw line double the amount of times they get to the free-throw line. Those are some good things that we did so we’ve just got to build off of that.” The Warriors’ motto for the playoffs is “strength in numbers,” and the team showed off their depth with big games from reserves Shaun Livingston, Leandro Barbosa and Andre Iguodala. “Those guys have an ability to elevate their game to the situation, which is hard for many players on the bench,” general manager Bob Myers told the San Francisco Chronicle. “It’s harder to rise up in the bigger moments. That’s usually left to the stars. But they’re pros, they’ve been in the league a long time and they’ve been through a lot, so they’re aware of the situation.”

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 6.5-point home favorites over the Cavs for Game 1 and have yet to move off that number at publication time of this preview. The total hit the board at 207 and has been bet all of the way up to 208.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (69-28, 46-48-3 ATS, 48-49 O/U): LeBron James went for 23 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists in Game 1 but committed four turnovers and was honest in his assessment the team’s performance. "When you're outscored 45-10 in bench points and give up 25 points off turnovers, you're not winning that game," James told reporters. The Cavaliers are averaging 13.9 made 3-pointers in the playoffs – tops in the NBA – but went 7-of-21 from beyond the arc in Game 1 as Channing Frye (0-of-1 in seven minutes off the bench) and J.R. Smith (1-of-3 in 36 minutes) struggled to get into the flow on offense.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (86-14, 57-41-2 ATS, 52-47-1 O/U): Golden State held the Cavaliers to 38.1 percent from the field and only turned the ball over nine times in Game 1, with just one of those turnovers coming from the reserves. Iguodala, Livingston and Barbosa combined to shoot 18-of-24 from the field to pick up the slack for their star teammates, who appreciated the effort. “Regardless of how the night’s going shooting for me or Klay, we definitely get a boost when our bench guys come in and change the game,” Curry told reporters. “We rely on that pretty much every night, whether it’s 45 points off the bench or just playing aggressive and continuing what we start.”

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NBA Championship games.
* Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NBA Championship games.
* Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. Western Conference.
* Under is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Warriors are picking up 59 percent of the Consensus wagering as of Saturday night. In totals picks, Over is grabbing 58 percent of the action.

Game 2 Props - Best Bets
VegasInsider.com

The NBA Finals continues Sunday with Game 2 between the Cavaliers and Warriors from Oracle Arena. If you’re hesitant to back the side or total for the second contest in this series, then we suggest you take a closer look at the available player props.

Our trio of NBA experts produced a 6-3 overall record for Game 1 and those winners produced over six units of profit.

Game 1 Results

Chris David: 2-1 (+285)
Tony Mejia: 2-1 (+270)
Kevin Rogers: 2-1 (+85)

Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 2 below.

Chris David

3 Units – Under Andre Iguodala Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 18 (-120)

Iguodala had a combined 23 total points, rebounds and assists in Game 1 and was praised for his great defensive play. What helps any player on defense is the referees, especially when they swallow their whistle. He was only called for one foul in the opener and while I’m not going to preach conspiracy theories, I do believe LeBron will get more calls in Game 2. And when Iggy gets in foul trouble, his game and numbers have struggled. In this year’s playoffs, he’s been whistled for three fouls or more in four games and his combined numbers on this prop is 12, which includes 4.8 PPG. Look for fouls and look for this ‘under’ to connect.

2 Units – Over Shaun Livingston Total Points 9.5 (-120)

Nobody expected Livingston to drop 20 points in the opener and while many believe that effort was a fluke, I’ll make the case that his production comes down to playing time. In this year’s playoffs, he’s averaging close to 12 PPG when he plays at least 20 minutes. He’s shooting 53 percent in the playoffs and after playing against two solid defensive backcourts in the Trail Blazers and Thunder, squaring off against the Cavaliers appears to be a luxury. If he logs the minutes, he’ll get close to 10 shots and that will help this wager go ‘over’ on Sunday.

Kevin Rogers

3 Units – Under Klay Thompson Total Made 3-Point Field Goals 3.5 (+105)

Thompson struggled from the floor in Game 1 by shooting 4-of-12, including 1-for-5 from three-point range. Against Cleveland in the Finals, the Warriors’ shooting guard hasn’t fared well from downtown, making exactly one three-pointer in four straight Finals games. Golden State didn’t shoot well as a team from three-point range, going 9-of-27 in Game 1, as it’s tough to think Thompson will duplicate his success from the Oklahoma City series.

2 Units – Over Kyrie Irving Total Made Free Throws 4.5 (-110)

Irving got to the foul line 12 times in the series opener, making 11 free throws. The Cleveland point guard is shooting 85% from the free throw line in the playoffs, which means this bet can be likely cashed if he attempts six free throws. Irving has made more than four free throws only four times in the playoffs, while knocking down exactly four foul shots four times. As long as the Cavaliers continue to stay aggressive, Irving has an excellent chance to cash this prop.

Tony Mejia

2 Units – Over LeBron James Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 44.5 (-110)

I'd expect James to play no fewer than 44 minutes in this contest, so he'll have plenty of opportunities to fill up his score sheet.

2 Units Klay Thompson will NOT miss a free throw (-115)

He missed his only attempt in Game 1 and isn't likely to get there much, but since NO wins if he doesn't get to the line and he's likely to get into a better rhythm, we're riding with the 87 percent shooter in spite of the fact he's missed a free throw in three of the past four games.

1 Unit Stephen Curry will have more assists than rebounds (-0.5, -120)

Curry has had more assists than boards in each of the last two games and will be more effective than in the series opener, which means the Cavs will look to make him a passer whenever possible.

Cavs look to avoid 0-2 hole
By Sportsbook.ag

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (69-28.) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (86-14)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -6.5, Total: 208.0

The Cavaliers will be looking to avoid a 2-0 series deficit when they face the Warriors on Sunday.

Cleveland looked miserable in Game 1, losing 104-89 as a six-point road favorite on Thursday. The Cavaliers shot a miserable 38.1% from the floor and turned the ball over 15 times in the game.

They will need to be a lot better offensively on Sunday, but they also need to do buckle down defensively as well. The Cavaliers allowed the Warriors to shoot 49.4% from the floor in Game 1 and it’s hard to imagine Cleveland winning a game without holding Golden State to 45% or worse from the field.

The Warriors, meanwhile, will be feeling excellent about the way they played. Golden State’s bench outscored Cleveland’s 45-10 and the team now gets to play at home once again in Game 2.

The Warriors are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS when hosting the Cavaliers over the past three seasons, so Cleveland will be tasked with winning somewhere where the team hasn’t been great in the past. Fortunately for the Cavaliers, they are 18-7 ATS when playing only their second straight game in five days this season.

The Warriors are, however, 21-7 ATS after a non-conference game this season. Both teams will be at full strength coming into this game, so injuries will hopefully not factor into the outcome of this one.

The Cavaliers looked horrible on Thursday and one guy that must step it up in Game 2 is SF LeBron James (24.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 7.1 APG, 2.2 SPG in playoffs). Although James didn’t have much help from his teammates in Game 1, he did shoot just 9-for-21 from the floor and turned the ball over four times.

This team is at its best when James is playing mistake-free basketball and he must be more efficient for the remainder of this series. He also took far too many jumpers on Thursday and will need to make it his goal to get more shots around the rim on Sunday.

PG Kyrie Irving (24.4 PPG, 5.0 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) is going to need to be a lot better defensively moving forward for Cleveland. He had 26 points in Game 1, but his deficiencies on the defensive end were what stood out. The Warriors kept attacking him on Thursday and he’ll need to show a lot more effort on that end in Game 2.

PF Kevin Love (17.3 PPG, 9.8 RPG in playoffs) also needs to be better in this series. He had 17 points and 13 boards in Game 1, but he was 7-for-17 from the floor and that is not a very good percentage for somebody with his size. He’ll need to start getting some more out of his touches around the basket, as it would really give him some more space to utilize his jumper moving forward.

The Warriors dominated the Cavaliers in Game 1 and the guys that were responsible for that were PG Shaun Livingston (8.8 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.1 RPG in playoffs) and SF Andre Iguodala (8.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs).

Livingston and Iguodala came off the bench to combine for 32 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. Both of them were excellent on defense and the Warriors are going to be unstoppable if they can continue to provide this type of offensive production.

PG Stephen Curry (25.4 PPG, 6.1 APG, 5.8 RPG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) and SG Klay Thompson (25.2 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs), meanwhile, combined for just 20 points in Game 1.

The two of them were really off with their jumpers, but that is actually a reason for the Warriors to be even more confident about the way this series will go.

It’s unlikely that Curry and Thompson will combine to score less than 40 in many games in this series, so the Cavaliers are going to have to deal with them going off eventually.