NBA Knowledge
Indiana-Toronto
Raptors are 9-4 in last 13 games against Indiana, they shot 40% from floor in three series wins, under 40% in three losses. Toronto is 12-4 vs spread in last 16 series games- seven of last nine series games stayed under total. Lowry/DeRozan were combined 7-27 in Game 6; they've won/covered four of last five games vs Indiana that were played here. Indiana blew a 13-point 4th-quarter lead in last game here.
Charlotte-Miami
Charlotte lost chance to clinch series at home in Game 6, now return to South Beach, where they're 2-3 in last five visits, 1-2 in this series. Heat scored 97+ points in its three series wins, 88 or less in its three losses. Last four series games stayed under the total. After having great balance in Game 5 upset win, Walker took 30 shots in Game 6 and Hornets had only two starters score more than 7 points, while bench was combined -36 in 59:00 played.
Portland-Golden State
Remember, no Steph Curry here. Warriors won six of last seven against Portland, covered eight of last ten Trailblazers are 0-4 vs spread last four times they came to Oakland. Portland got here ebcause Paul/Griffin got hurt for the Clippers, now Curry is out; Blazers are 7-3 in last 10 games, with six of last eight staying under the total. Golden State won seven of last nine games, covered six of last seven- under is 6-2 in their last eight.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 25-17, Over: 13-29
Second round: Favorites: 1-0, over: 1-0
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Indiana at Toronto
Indiana Pacers limiting the Toronto Raptors to 36.7% shooting in Game-6 walked off with a decisive 101-83 victory as -1.5 point home favorites tying the best-of-seven series 3-3 and forcing winner-take-all Game-7 on Sunday in Toronto. Sports Interaction has opened Toronto Raptors 6.5 point home favorites with the total set at 190.5.
Might be a touch generous. Although, Toronto is 9-4 (8-5 ATS) against Indiana, including 5-1 (4-2 ATS) on Air Canada Center hardwood since the first meeting of the 2014-2015 season the Raptors enter this decisive Game 7 a money burning 4-12-1 against the betting line its last 17 quarterfinal games, 2-6-1 ATS following a round-one loss.
Hornets at Heat
By Sportsbook.ag
CHARLOTE HORNETS (51-37) at MIAMI HEAT (51-37)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Miami -6.5, Total: 191
The Heat host the Hornets in a win or go home Game 7 at American Airlines Arena on Sunday.
Charlotte had a chance to closeout this series at home, but the team was unable to put away a desperate Miami team. The Heat were two-point underdogs in the game, but they ended up winning 97-90. One of the big differences in the game was that Miami outrebounded Charlotte 52-43. The Heat also shot 45.8% from the floor and held the Hornets to just 42.1%.
Miami will be confident coming into this one, as the team is 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS when hosting Charlotte over the past three seasons. The Heat are also 15-7 ATS after having lost two of their past three games this season.
Charlotte, however, is 9-1 ATS in road games revenging a SU loss as a favorite versus an opponent over the past two seasons.
SF Nicolas Batum (Ankle) is listed as questionable for the Hornets, who are without C Spencer Hawes (MCL) and SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Shoulder) for the rest of the season. The Heat remain without PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) indefinitely.
The Hornets are going to be kicking themselves after having a chance to win this series on Friday night. Now they’ll need to turn around and find a way to beat the Heat in Miami once again on Sunday.
One guy that will be ready for this one is PG Kemba Walker (25.0 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs). Walker had 37 points and five assists in Game 6 and was truly outstanding for his team. He was hitting all of his jumpers and blew by Miami’s defenders to finish at the rim whenever he wanted. He’ll need to be aggressive as a scorer once again in Game 7.
C Al Jefferson (14.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG in playoffs) could be the guy that steps up and helps Walker in this one. He played well in Game 6, finishing the game with 18 points and nine boards in 30 minutes of action. The Heat have more athletic bigs than Jefferson, but he is a lot stronger than them and knows how to use his body around the basket. He’ll need to come away with a solid performance on both ends of the floor.
The Heat desperately needed a victory on Friday and SG Dwyane Wade (20.2 PPG, 5.7 APG, 5.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG in playoffs) delivered it for the team with a huge performance. Wade had 23 points, six boards, four assists, three blocks and two steals in Game 6. He was finishing around the rim, but he was also knocking down jumpers and that was something that he did not do this season. Miami will need Wade to come through once again on Sunday.
C Hassan Whiteside (13.7 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 3.2 BPG in playoffs) will also be big for this Heat team in Game 7. He had 12 points, seven boards and four blocks in Game 6 but he did foul out of that one. He’ll need to stay on the floor in this one, as he is important on both ends of the court for Miami.
Sunday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Sunday is chalk full of great NBA action with a pair of Game 7's in the East sandwiching the second West semi final. We break down all the action so you can cap the games like a pro.
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-6.5, 191)
The Charlotte Hornets had a chance to close out the series at home but ran into a vintage performance from Dwyane Wade in Game 6. Now it’s the Miami Heat with a chance to clinch the best-of-7 series in front of their home fans, and they host the Hornets in the decisive Game 7 on Sunday.
Wade scored 10 of his team-high 23 points in the fourth quarter of Friday’s 97-90 triumph, including a pair of rare 3-pointers that helped seal the win. “I trust my teammates and I love them, but if we were going to lose, I was going out shooting it,” Wade told reporters. “At this point in my career, I play for these moments. ... It’s what makes you feel alive.” Kemba Walker tried to carry his team in the same manner and finished with 37 points on 14-of-30 shooting in the losing effort for the Hornets. “It’s always tough to lose, obviously,” Walker told reporters. “We made so many mistakes. We just have to be better. Of course I wish it had gone our way, but they just made great plays down the stretch, and they deserved to win.”
LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened as 7-point home favorites for their winner-take-all Game 7 versus the Hornets. The line has been bet down to -6.5. The total has yet to move off the opening number of 191. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE HORNETS (51-37, 45-42-1 ATS, 42-44-1 O/U): Walker scored 14 of the team’s 20 points in the fourth quarter on Friday and could use a more consistent effort from the other perimeter players on the team. Small forward Marvin Williams and guards Courtney Lee, Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lin have shined at times in the series but combined to go 4-of-22 from the floor in Game 6, and Batum missed the second half with ankle and foot injuries that already forced him out of two games in the series. “I tried everything,” Batum told the Charlotte Observer. “I tried hard, but I can’t push side to side. I was hurting the team much more than I was helping the team. So I told coach, ‘if you need me in the second half, call me.’ But it’s tough.”
ABOUT THE HEAT (51-37, 46-41-1 ATS, 36-51-1 O/U): Wade is getting more of a boost from his teammates, and Loul Deng continued a strong series with 21 points on 9-of-14 shooting in Game 6. The veteran forward is averaging 19.7 points in the series (up from 12.3 in the regular season) while shooting 51.4 percent from 3-point range (up from 34.4). “The best thing about (Game 7) is we’re at home,” Deng told reporters. “We gave ourselves another chance to fight. We have to come out with a lot of energy. It’s going to be a great game. I’m glad we’re home.”
TRENDS:
* Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Hornets last six road games.
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 209.5)
The Portland Trail Blazers benefited from some injury luck in the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers and are hoping for some more when they visit the top-seeded Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Sunday. Warriors MVP guard Stephen Curry (knee) will miss Game 1 and could miss several games in the series.
Curry was diagnosed with a grade 1 strain of his right MCL after falling awkwardly in Game 4 of the first round against the Houston Rockets on Apr. 24 and was given a timetable of two weeks before being evaluated again. “Feeling better but just got a ways to go," Curry told reporters on Friday. "I always have an optimistic view, no matter what it is. I hope to get back sooner. I haven't talked to the doctors, athletic training staff, all the experts. That two-week timeline was, as (Golden State general manager) Bob (Myers) says, an educated guess." The Trail Blazers certainly wouldn’t mind if he missed the whole series and just got done wrapping up a first-round win over a Clippers squad that was without stars Chris Paul and Blake Griffin for the final two games. “We thought (Los Angeles) was tough without (Paul) and Blake, but (the Warriors are) a championship team,” Portland guard Damian Lillard told reporters. “Even without Steph, they’re still a championship team. We’ve got to keep our mind right, compete and play together. … We’ve just got to keep improving on the things we’ve done well and be locked in defensively.”
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened Game 1 as 7.5-point home favorites and even without Steph Curry bettors have felt that wasn't enough with the line already moving to -8.5. The total has been bet down a point and a half from 211 to 209.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (48-40, 47-41 ATS, 46-42 O/U): Portland lost the first two games in the first round before winning four straight and were immediately turning the page to Golden State after clinching the series on Friday. “They pose a lot of problems,” Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum told reporters of the Warriors. “Historically speaking, they had a really good year breaking the record for wins, losing (two games) at home I believe this year, so you know it’s going to be a tough environment. Offensively, even without Steph, they do a great job of moving the ball.” McCollum was a key to the first-round win, averaging 12.5 points in Games 1 and 2 before exploding for 23.3 over the final four contests.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (77-10, 49-36-2 ATS, 46-40-1 O/U): Golden State dominated the Houston Rockets in the final six quarters of the first-round series after watching Curry go down just before the half in Game 4, outscoring them 179-119 over the final 1 1/2 games. “(We’re) doing a few things different with Steph out,” Warriors forward Andre Iguodala told reporters. “We don’t have that explosive, MVP-type player. But we did a really good job of getting into that mode, making a couple extra passes per possession. The ball had to move quicker. Klay (Thompson) has to move a little bit more than normal. Get the ball in the post a little bit more.” Golden State has two more All-Stars in Thompson and Draymond Green to go along with a solid supporting cast that will hold the fort until Curry returns.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Trail Blazers last six games following a ATS loss.
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors (-5.5, 190.5)
All the pressure is on the second-seeded Toronto Raptors when they host the Indiana Pacers on Sunday in the finale of the best-of-7 Eastern Conference first-round series. Toronto hasn't won a postseason series since 2001 - the longest drought in the NBA - and is being severely tested by a seventh-seed team that won 11 fewer regular-season games.
Indiana remained alive with a solid 101-83 victory in Game 6 to even the series and Raptors All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan doesn't need to be reminded what a Game 7 home loss will mean. "The season would be a failure if we don't get out of the first round and give ourselves a chance to play in the second round," DeRozan told reporters. "We understand that." DeRozan scored just eight points on Friday for the second time in three games and the shaky performances from him and point guard Kyle Lowry - the first player to shoot below 40 percent in each of the first six games of the postseason - have the Pacers on the brink of pulling off the improbable series victory. "I believe we can play with this team," Indiana coach Frank Vogel said after Game 6. "We have great respect for them, but I really believe we're hitting our stride at the right time and playing our best basketball of the season when it matters."
LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 6.5-point home favorites for this winner-take-all Game 7, but bettors are siding with history and the Pacers as the number has moved down to -5.5. The total opened at 190.5 and has yet to move that number. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE PACERS (48-40, 45-41-1 ATS, 38-50 O/U): All five Indiana starters scored 12 or more points in Game 6 as the team gave All-Star forward Paul George some much-needed support. George has been carrying the team by averaging 27.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals in the series and he had 21 points, 11 rebounds and six assists in Friday's victory. "We just had a fight in us," George told reporters. "As a group, collectively, we knew that this could be the end of our season. We just did a great job of battling."
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (59-29, 47-41 ATS, 43-44-1 O/U): DeRozan is averaging 15.8 points and shooting 32.1 percent from the field, while Lowry is faring even worse at 14.3 points and 31 percent. Forward Patrick Patterson, who is shooting 31 percent over the past four games after starting off the series by making 9-of-11 shots, said the Raptors need to take a long at themselves in the mirror. "Do we want to be the team that won 56 games? Do we want to be the team that got two All-Stars to the All-Star Game, set new records, went on long winning streaks and played great defense in the first half of the season?" Patterson rhetorically asked reporters. "Or do we want to be the team that has come into Indiana the past two times and got blown out of the water? We have to decide what we want to be."
TRENDS:
* Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.
* Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss.
* Under is 6-1 in Raptors last seven overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Pacers last eight overall.
Sunday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Charlotte at Miami (-6.5/190.5)
The Heat survived a critical Game 6 in Charlotte thanks to the heroics of Dwyane Wade, who prevented a late collapse with a pair of contested shots down the stretch face after the Hornets had whittled down a large fourth-quarter lead as Kemba Walker scored 12 consecutive points for his team to trim the deficit to a bucket.
The Heat dominated the first two games in this series, setting a franchise-record by scoring 123 points in Game 1, then following it up with a 115-103 rout to go up 2-0. Whiteside made 17 of 19 shots as Miami shot over 57 percent in both victories. Then the series shifted to Charlotte, where everything changed.
Back home in South Florida, Miami will look to avoid consecutive home losses for the first time since Feb. 9, just before the All-Star break. Including the postseason, the Heat have are 30-14 at American Airlines Arena, but did split their regular-season meetings at home with Southeast Division rival Charlotte and are 2-1 in this series. Although Wade’s leadership has been invaluable, Luol Deng has been the most consistent member of the Heat, shining on defense in whatever role he’s been called upon, defending everyone from Walker to Nicolas Batum to Charlotte bigs.
Charlotte head coach Steve Clifford has made adjustments in starting Al Jefferson and bringing Nicolas Batum off the bench while keeping Frank Kaminsky in the lineup after Batum returned from a foot injury. He's questionable for this one with a foot injury. Defensively Charlotte has left rookie defensive standouts Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson open for 3-point looks, taking their chances that they won’t be able to take advantage. Winslow went for 1-for-9 from beyond the arc at Time Warner Cable Arena after taking just two 3-pointers in Miami over the first two games. Goran Dragic has also been baited into more shots, finally finding a rhythm in the second half of Game 6.
The ‘under’ has come in three straight times in the series, but the Heat scored at will at home in the first two games, easily cashing ‘over’ tickets. Including those winners, the ‘over’ has gone 10-3 in the last 13 playoff games at American Airlines Arena. Ten of the last 11 encounters in South Florida between the Heat and Hornets have all gone ‘over’ the number. The WestgateLV Superbook has props set on this game regarding largest lead (17), total 3-pointers made (15) and points scored by Walker (23.5) and Wade (21.5)
Portland at Golden State (-9.5/209)
This is a matchup straight out of the Twilight Zone, because you wouldn't have found anyone predicting that the Steph Curry-less Warriors would be playing the Trail Blazers here. Portland lost the first two games at Staples Center before winning Game 3 and taking advantage of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin leaving Game 4 with season-ending injuries.
Although the Clippers fought hard with Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers at the controls, the Trail Blazers defeated a depleted group and will face a team whose motto is "Strength in Numbers," something they're clinging to even more with the reigning MVP out for at least a few games in this series.
After a Grade 1 MCL sprain that could've been far worse than it ended up being, Curry will be re-evaluated late this week and hopes to be back sooner than later if he's cleared by team doctors. Without him, the Warriors obviously aren't as prolific offensively without the league's best shooter spreading out a defense, but they do have a competent replacement in Shaun Livingston who allows them to create mismatches and lock in on the defensive side of the ball. His length should be a factor against Damian Lillard, who scored 51 points on 18-for-28 shooting in a 137-105 home win against Golden State coming out of the All-Star break.
Lillard is an Oakland natve who won't be intimidated by the atmosphere at Oracle Arena, where the Warriors have won 42 of 44 times this season. Upset-minded Portland will hope the strides made by Miles Plumlee, who became an invaluable x-factor and playmaker last series, and Al-Farouq Aminu, who has been invaluable as the team's top two-way player. Mo Harkless and Ed Davis have been dependable off the bench up front, while shooter Allen Crabbe has been a weapon. The Warriors won three of four regular-season meetings between the teams, including a 136-111 result on April 3
The WestgateLV Superbook has props available on the largest lead for either team being 20 points, a total of 21.5 3-pointers made, 24.5 points for Lillard, 20 for CJ McCollum and 25.5 for Klay Thompson. They've also set a prop on Draymond Green being able to top 24.5 with combined points and rebounds
VI's NBA expert Chris David weighs in: "While Golden State may be short-handed, I don’t see any reason to back Portland on the road in Game 1. The Trail Blazers closed the season with a 2-12 record on the road and the two wins came against non-playoff teams. They were outclassed in the first two games against the Clippers at the Staples Center and if it wasn’t for a barrage of 3-point bombs in Game 5, Portland might not even be playing in this spot. The line is short due to the Curry injury and I have no problem laying the wood knowing that Golden State went 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS when favored by nine points or less this season.
Indiana at Toronto (-6/190)
The Raptors are looking to take care of business at home in order to clinch only the second playoff series victory in franchise history. They're out to reverse a trend under head coach Dwane Casey that has seen them get bounced from the first round of the postseason despite being the higher-seeded team each of the past few years.
Toronto would already be eliminated in this series if it hadn't come back from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit in Game 5, rallying as Paul George sat to open the final 12 minutes. The Raptors hung around early in Indianapolis but were ultimately overwhelmed in the second half as the Pacers played their most complete game of the series.
George has dominated his individual matchup with DeMar DeRozan and likely won't leave the floor in this elimination game since he's by far his team's top player at both ends. Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey have slumped in supplying scoring punch, but point guard George HIll has really stepped up in answering the challenge of guarding Kyle Lowry while running the Indy offense. Center Ian Mahinmi has also been an x-factor, supplying a presence down low alongside talented rookie Myles Turner to help quell a rebounding disadvantage that was present early in the series.
Center Jonas Valanciunas was excellent early on and has owned the boards when he's been out there, but foul trouble has consistently compromised him, limiting his effectiveness. The dream scenario for the Raps would be him avoiding the whistle early so he can get in a rhythm. Both Lowry and DeRozan have struggled to efficiently put the ball in the basket, but the All-Star backcourt is certainly capable of getting off at home, where the Raptors have gone 34-10 including these playoffs.
The WestgateLV Superbook has props available on the largest lead for either team reaching 17 points, 16.5 combined 3-pointers, and set the bar at 25.5 points from George and Lowry.
"After watching the last two games of this series, I’m surprised that Toronto is laying six points in Game 7," commented VI's David. "I thought the line would hover around 4 or 4½ and I believe the value is with the underdog. The Raptors have been a horrible investment at home in the playoffs, going 1-7-1 in their last nine games. The lone cover came in Game 2 of this series in a contest and this is the same core of players that dropped a Game 7 at home two years ago to Brooklyn. When you have the better coach and the best player on the court in Paul George, grabbing the points seems justified."
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Hornets at Heat (-6, 191)
Miami won the first two games in this series in dominating fashion, and then they lost three straight to Charlotte before winning Game 6 on the road. Game 1 and Game 2 were high-scoring shootouts, but the scoring has dropped off significantly over the last four games, resulting in a 4-0 run to the Under. Tonight’s posted total is the lowest of the series, so there is some value on the Over, but critical Game 7's are often a bit lower scoring on average. Game 7 home teams normally win, however the price on Miami is too high considering how the last four games have played out.
Trail Blazers at Warriors (-9.5, 208.5)
Portland was fortunate to play an injured Los Angeles squad in their last series, and they once again will play a team without their best player. Despite winning their series 4-2 against the Clippers, Portland had a -2 point differential in those six games. That won’t cut it against the Warriors. This was the highest scoring series in the NBA this season with 965 total points scored in four games (241 points per game), but that was with Stephen Curry on the court.