NBA Knowledge
Miami-Toronto
Heat lost seven of last 10 games with Toronto, losing four of last five played here. Home side won 11 of last 15 series games overall- three of last four series games here went over total. Eight of last 11 Miami games stayed under total, as have 10 of last 14 3 Raptor games. Lowry had 33 points in Game 3 but is 33-98 in other five games. Dragic erupted with 30 points in Game 6 to help even series. Miam is 6-3 all-time in Game 7's, Toronto is 1-2
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 12-8, over: 11-9
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Miami at Toronto
Toronto Raptors unable to close it out in South Beach Friday evening dropping a 103-91 decision to the Heat return to the comfort of Air Canada Center for a do-or-die Game-7. NBA oddsmakers have Toronto Raptors a -4.5 point home favorite.
Home-court is certainly something Toronto can tap into. Raptors have been tough nuts to crack on Air Canada Center hardwood this season winning at a 77.1% clip (37-11 SU) including 4-of-5 hosting Miami. Raptors who haven't lost back-2-back games this post season (5-0 SU) and carry a sparkling 8-0 SU record since March following a defeat move into a Conference Final for the first time in the team's 21-year history in what should be a nail-bitter.
That said, you back Toronto at some risk. Raptors are a money burning 6-17-1 against the betting line in postseason including 2-11-1 ATS handing the opponent points. Additionally, Purple Dinos' have been poor bets following a postseason loss posting a 2-8-1 record overall at the betting window, 2-6-1 mark as chalk.
Sunday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors (-4.5, 189.5)
The Miami Heat are embracing small ball in ways rarely seen in the NBA and are on the verge of taking it to the Eastern Conference finals. The Heat will once again operate without a traditional center when they visit the Toronto Raptors for Game 7 on Sunday.
Miami didn’t just leave the center out of the lineup in Game 6 with starter Hassan Whiteside sidelined, it left power forwards Amar’e Stoudemire and Udonis Haslem on the bench the entire game as well while small forwards Luol Deng, Justise Winslow and Joe Johnson started and got the bulk of the playing time in the frontcourt. "Sometimes unconventional works," veteran guard Dwyane Wade, who scored 22 points in the 103-91 triumph, told reporters of the lineup. The Raptors received solid play from the backcourt pairing of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry but failed to contain the Miami guards and the waves of perimeter players the Heat sent at them on the defensive end. “They did an excellent job of setting the tempo and the style of play early and we didn’t adjust to it as far as guarding the basketball, containing the basketball, keeping it in front of us,” Raptors coach Dwane Casey told reporters.
LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 4.5-point favorites and the total hit the board at 189.5. At the time this preview will be published on Saturday evening, neither number has moved. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE HEAT (55-40, 51-43-1 ATS, 39-55-1 O/U): Miami, like Toronto, is playing a Game 7 for the second time already in this postseason and is confident it can get the job done on the road. "It's different than a normal game," Wade told reporters. "It's not a Game 1, where you have a Game 2 the next day. You have to give a little more. You have to do a little more. You have to give everything you have. There's no tomorrow." The Heat are at their best when point guard Goran Dragic is playing aggressively and attacking the basket, and the 30-year-old posted his playoff high with 30 points in Friday’s triumph.
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (63-32, 49-46 ATS, 46-48-1 O/U): Toronto was without its starting center as well (Jonas Valanciunas, ankle) but elevated reserve center Bismack Biyombo into the starting lineup and tried to play a more traditional style on offense. The Raptors lamented their struggles with one-on-one defense after the loss, with Lowry in particular noting the difficulty of containing Dragic, but are excited for Game 7 at home. “This is going to be fun,” Lowry told reporters. “It’s Game 7, (No. 2 seed) versus No. 3 and a good opportunity to play on one of the biggest stages there is. Time to just go out there and hoop.”
TRENDS:
* Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 7-2 in Heat last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Over is 23-5 in Raptors last 28 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
CONSENSUS: The public is favoring the Raptors as home favorites at 55 percent and the Over is getting 60 percent of the action in early wagering.
Game 7 - Heat at Raptors
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The only series headed to a decisive Game 7 in the conference semifinals takes place in Toronto on Sunday between the Raptors and Heat. This series hasn’t lived up to any kind of aesthetic standards, but the winner of Sunday’s contest will likely be the sacrificial lamb to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Miami extended its second straight postseason series to a seventh game after pulling away from Toronto in Friday’s Game 6 at American Airlines Arena, 103-91 as 3½-point favorites. Goran Dragic scored a season-high 30 points, while reaching double-digit scoring for the 12th time in 13 playoff games. Miami had to employ a smaller lineup with center Hassan Whiteside sidelined, as 6’7’’ rookie Justise Winslow stepped up at the 5-spot and held his own by scoring 12 points, a career-high. Dwyane Wade struggled from the floor by shooting 8-of-21, but hit several key shots and finished with 22 points to improve Miami to 5-2 SU/ATS at home in the playoffs.
Toronto’s backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan combined for 59 of the Raptors’ 91 points in the Game 6 defeat, as no other Toronto players scored in double-figures. Lowry and DeRozan posted inefficient shooting numbers once again, going 20-of-48 from the floor, but the two guards combined to convert 16-of-17 free throws attempts. Backup center Bismack Biyombo scored in double-figures in his first two starts for the injured Jonas Valenciunas, but was limited to four points in Game 6, although he pulled down 13 rebounds.
Following three consecutive ‘unders,’ the ‘over’ has cashed in each of the last two games, as the Heat and Raptors eclipsed the ‘over’ of 188½ in Game 6. Miami became the first team to bust the 100-point mark in regulation in this series on Friday, while Toronto’s highest output in this series was 99 points put up in Game 5. The middle two quarters in Game 6 helped cash the ‘over,’ as the two teams combined for 56 points in the second quarter and 57 points in the third. In each of the first two games in Toronto, there was not one quarter in which the teams combined for over 50 points, but in Game 5, the second and fourth quarters saw 50+ points put up between the clubs.
The Heat and Raptors are both playing their second Game 7 of this postseason. Miami blasted Charlotte, 106-73 in the seventh game of the opening round, the fourth consecutive Game 7 victory for the Heat dating back to 2011. The last time that Erik Spoelstra’s team lost a Game 7 came in the first round of the 2009 playoffs at Atlanta, 91-78. Toronto held off Indiana in Game 7 of the conference quarterfinals, 89-84, but failed to cover as six-point favorites. The Raptors own a 1-2 record in three Game 7’s in franchise history, which includes a one-point setback to Brooklyn in the 2014 first round.
Both centers remain out for Game 7, as Whiteside’s sprained MCL suffered in Game 3 has not improved enough, while Valenciunas is on the mend for an ankle injury as the status moving forward for the Toronto center is uncertain. Since both centers have been sidelined, the rebounding numbers haven’t skewed one way or the other, as the biggest rebounding difference came in Game 5 as Miami out-boarded Toronto, 44-39.
Since the start of 2014 playoffs, home teams own an 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS record in Game 7’s with the only defeat suffered by Toronto in the 2014 opening round against Brooklyn. Only two underdogs have won outright in this stretch of Game 7’s with the Rockets knocking out the Clippers at home last season in the conference semifinals as 2½-point ‘dogs.
When this series began, Sportsbook.ag issued exact game odds as Toronto was listed at 5/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $250) to win in seven games, while Miami had 6/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $600) to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in seven games. Toronto started the series at -160 odds (Bet $160 to win $100) to advance regardless of games played according to Sportsbook.ag, while Miami was +140 (Bet $100 to win $140) to reach its first Eastern Conference Finals since 2014.
Sunday's Playoff Action
By Sportsbook.ag
MIAMI HEAT (55-40) at TORONTO RAPTORS (63-32)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Toronto -4.5, Total: 189.5
Both the Heat and Raptors will be playing for a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals when the teams meet in Toronto for Game 7 on Sunday.
The Heat were facing elimination in Game 6 and ended up coming away with a 103-91 victory as 3.5-point home favorites. Miami played its best offensive game since Game 2 in that one, shooting 47.6% from the floor and turning the ball over just seven times as well. The Heat will need to bring that type of efficient play into Toronto for this Game 7.
The Raptors, meanwhile, have now shot less than 44% from the floor in three straight games and four of their past five. If they can’t find a way to make some easier shots then they could be eliminated on Sunday.
One trend favoring Miami is that the team is 15-7 ATS after five straight games forcing an opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. The Heat are just 3-13 ATS after covering in six or seven of their past eight games over the past three seasons.
C Hassan Whiteside (Knee) is out for the Heat, who are already without PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) for the season. The Raptors will only be without C Jonas Valanciunas (Ankle), but that is a big loss for them.
If the Heat are going to win Game 7 then they will need big performances from both SG Dwyane Wade (21.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.4 APG in playoffs) and PG Goran Dragic (16.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.6 APG in playoffs).
Wade had a solid Game 6, finishing with 22 points, six boards, five assists, three blocks and two steals in the victory. He was getting it done on both ends of the floor and will need to bring the same effort in Toronto on Sunday. He is still at his best when he is going to the basket, but he was settling for contested jumpers in a Game 5 loss in Toronto. He’ll need to show the same aggressiveness on the road as he has at home for his team to win this one.
Dragic will also need to show that he can get it done in this big road spot for Miami. He had 30 points, seven rebounds and four assists in the Game 6 victory and really had it going for the Heat in that one. He did have just 13 points in Game 5 and can’t afford to disappear like that again on Sunday.
The Raptors are going to be playing with a ton of emotion in front of their home crowd, but they’ll need to find a way to remain calm in the game. One guy that must come out and set an example for his team is PG Kyle Lowry (17.4 PPG, 6.5 APG, 4.6 RPG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs). Lowry is the leader of this Toronto group and has been playing very well over the past two contests. He’s averaging 30.5 PPG over the past two games and will need to come through with another big offensive performance in this one. He’s been at his best when driving to the rim, but he also must continue to knock down his threes. He’s shooting just 24.7% from the outside in the playoffs, but he has knocked down seven of his past 14 threes.
SG DeMar DeRozan (19.4 PPG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs) is also going to need to play well for the Raptors. He had 23 points in Game 6, but he was just 8-for-21 from the field in that one. The Raptors will need him to shoot at least 40% from the floor in this game, as he can’t afford to keep missing so many shots for Toronto. It’d also be big if he can step it up on defense. DeRozan can give the Heat a lot of issues by locking up Dwyane Wade on Sunday. He’ll need to do everything in his power to do that in this one.