NBA Knowledge
Oklahoma City-Golden State
Warriors led by 14-8 at half of first two games; they scored 61 in second half of Game 2, after being held to 41 in Game 1. Golden State won seven of last nine games with Oklahoma City; both games in this series stayed under. Warriors split last four visits here; three of those four games went over total. OC split pair in Oakland even though Westbrook/Durant combined to go 33-83 from floor. Thunder won three of last four home games. Golden State split its last four road games.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 3-2, over: 1-3-1
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Golden State at Oklahoma City
The defending champion Golden State Warriors stunned in the opener of this best-of-seven Western Conference Final vs Oklahoma City rebounded nicely spanking Thunder 118-91 as -9 point home favorite in game-two.
Warriors with a 54.0 effective field goal percentage in the Western Conference Finals netting 110.7 points per 100 possessions while holding Thunder to a 48.8 effective field goal percentage and 99.3 offensive effeciency rating have opened - 2.5 to -3.0 point road favorites for game-three scheduled Sunday evening at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City.
When handicapping this contest a few betting nuggets to ponder. The Warriors have been poor bets as favorite in Oklahoma City (0-3-1 ATS) and terrible bets in game three of a postseason series on the road (1-5 ATS). On the other side, Thunder are a sparkling 4-0 against the betting line off a posteason loss the previous effort.
Game 3 - Warriors at Thunder
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The 2016 Western Conference finals shift to Oklahoma City on Sunday night with the series knotted at 1-1. The Thunder overcame a 13-point intermission deficit to win Game 1 by a 108-102 count as a 7.5-point underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a payout in the +325 range (risk $100 to win $325). Then in Game 2, Golden State (82-12 straight up, 53-39-2 against the spread) responded by smashing OKC 118-91 as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’
For Game 3, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened the Warriors as 2.5-point road favorites. As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Steve Kerr’s team favored by three points. The total was 219.5 on the send-out at the Westgate, but that number has been adjusted up to 220.5 points. Golden St. is -150 on the money line, leaving Billy Donovan’s squad as the +130 underdog (risk $100 to win $130) to win outright.
Let’s go back to the series opener. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were the catalysts in the comeback victory. Durant had 26 points to go with 10 rebounds, three assists and three steals. It was far from a vintage KD performance, however, as he made only 10-of-30 shots from the field and committed five turnovers.
Westbrook overcame a disastrous first half to heat up in the third quarter. He finished with 27 points, 12 assists, seven steals and six rebounds. Steven Adams contributed 16 points, 12 boards and a pair of blocked shots. Serge Ibaka produced a double-double with 11 points and 11 rebounds, while Dion Waiters tallied 10 points and four assists without a turnover. He drained 4-of-6 shots, including both of his launces from long distance.
In the losing effort, Steph Curry finished with 26 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and three steals, but he also committed seven turnovers. The Davidson University product went 9-of-22 from the field. Klay Thompson added 25 points, nine boards and four assists, while Draymond Green tallied 23 points, five boards, four assists, two blocks and one steal. Harrison Barnes was the only other Warrior in double figures with 12 points.
Curry responded in Game 2 with a much more efficient outing. He scored 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting, including a 5-of-8 performance from 3-point range. Seven Warriors scored in double figures, including Thompson (15), Andre Iguodala (14), Mo Speights (13), Festus Ezeli (12), Barnes (11) and Green (10).
Green stuffed the stat sheet as usual, finished with eight rebounds, seven assists, two blocked shots and one steal. Speights scored 13 despite playing only nine minutes. The University of Florida product, who has won a ring in college and the NBA, hitting 5-of-6 shots, including both from downtown.
A late first-half run built Golden St.’s lead up to nine at halftime. Then the Warriors poured it on in a dominant third quarter, outscoring the Thunder 31-19. The blowout was on from there with both coaches resting their starters for the majority of the final stanza.
Even though he played only 35 minutes, Durant scored 29 points on 11-of-18 shooting. However, he had an atrocious 1/8 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Westbrook had 16 points and 12 assists.
After a split at Oracle Arena in Oakland, Sportsbook.ag has the Warriors as a -340 favorite for the updated series price. Gamblers can take OKC on the comeback for a lucrative +270 return (risk $100 to win $270).
As for the futures to win the NBA Championship, Golden St. is the -125 ‘chalk.’ Cleveland has the second-shortest odds (+160), followed by the Thunder (+750) and Raptors (200/1).
Oklahoma City (64-31 SU, 45-49-1 ATS) has been a home underdog only twice this season, producing a 0-1-1 spread record. The Thunder dropped a 100-96 decision to San Antonio as a 2.5-point home underdog in Game 3 of the West semifinals. The only other home ‘dog spot came in the regular season on Feb. 27 when the Warriors rallied to force overtime and then captured a 121-118 victory as three-point road ‘chalk.’
Golden St. owns a 36-9 SU record and a 25-18 ATS mark in its 45 road assignments this year. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has posted a 36-11 SU record and a 23-23-1 ATS ledger in its home outings.
As VegasInsider.com’s Chris David points out, Golden State remained undefeated in bounce-back spots with its Game 2 win. OKC has been equally effective in such situations in these playoffs, albeit over a shorter span of time.
David said, “Golden State improved to 12-0 this season off a loss after defeating Oklahoma City in Game 2. What’s more impressive is that the Warriors have gone 8-3-1 ATS in those victories. To be fair to the Thunder, we should make a note that they haven’t dropped back-to-back games in the playoffs. OKC has gone 3-0 both straight up and against the spread and they’ve won those games by an average of 14.6 points per game and the offense has averaged 133.3 PPG in the victories.”
The ‘over’ is 50-43-1 overall for the Warriors, 25-20 in their road games.
The ‘under’ is 50-45 overall for the Thunder, 28-19 in its home contests.
After cashing in the first two games of this best-of-seven set, the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the five head-to-head meetings between these clubs this year. The combined scoring outputs have been 224, 239 (in overtime, 206 at the end of regulation), 227, 210 and 209.
VI’s David had this opinion on the Game 3 total: “The ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in the first two games of this series in totals that have ranged from 223 to 225. Game 3 opened at 219 ½ and has been bumped up to 220 ½ at most betting shops and the number is very doable, needing 55-56 points in every quarter. The pace for an up-tempo game was there in the opener but Oklahoma City tapped on the breaks in Game 2, only attempting 78 shots from the field and just 19 free throws. I’d expect Billy Donovan and company to be very aggressive on Sunday and that should increase both numbers. Whether the shots fall or not is anybody’s guess but the last two games played in OKC between the pair saw a combined 239 and 242 points, with one of those games going into overtime. Just based on the pace, I’d lean to the high side on Sunday.”
Sunday's NBA Conference Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5, 220)
The Oklahoma City Thunder accomplished one goal by taking Game 1 at Golden State to begin the Western Conference finals but saw a different Warriors team in a Game 2 loss. The Thunder will try to protect home court when the series shifts to Oklahoma City for Game 3 on Sunday.
The Thunder dominated on the glass and at the free-throw line in Game 1, effectively keeping Golden State out of its offense in the second half as they surged to a 108-102 victory. The Warriors were the more aggressive group in Game 2 and made the necessary adjustments on the glass and on the offensive end to free up Stephen Curry for a third-quarter barrage that stunned Oklahoma City and propelled Golden State to a 118-91 triumph. "We've got to deal in the reality and the truth," Thunder coach Billy Donovan told reporters. "The reality and the truth is, OK, here are the things that went wrong (in Game 2). Here are the corrections we need to make. Here are the adjustments we need to make. Here's what we need to do and the series right now is 1-1. That's the truth right now coming out of it.” Oklahoma City star Kevin Durant bounced back from a tough shooting performance in Game 1 by going 11-of-18 from the field on Wednesday but watched most of the fourth quarter from the bench with the game already decided.
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 2.5-point road favorites and, as of publication time of this preview, the line has not moved. The total hit the board at 219 and has been bumped up a full point to 220. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (82-12, 53-39-2 ATS, 50-43-1 O/U): Curry dove into the stands trying to save a loose ball in the first quarter of Game 2 and landed hard on his right elbow, leaving a giant knot that swelled out during the game. The knot didn’t seem to bother him much as he was scoring 15 points in under two minutes in the third quarter to finish with 28 points in 30 minutes for the game, and Curry doesn’t believe the injury will hamper his shooting moving forward. "It's sore, just because of the impact, but the spot it's at doesn't affect the range of motion, so I can shoot and dribble and do all I need to do," Curry told reporters after practice on Friday. "It's uncomfortable, but it's not necessarily painful."
ABOUT THE THUNDER (64-31, 45-49-1 ATS, 45-50 O/U): Oklahoma City was demolished 124-92 at San Antonio in Game 1 of its second-round series before bouncing back to win the series in six games, and the team fully believes it will recover against the Warriors. “It helps with our confidence knowing that we’ve been in this position before,” Durant told reporters. “It’s not foreign land to us. But the last series, we can’t really worry about that too much, we’ve got to focus on who we’ve got in front of us right now. We know it’s easier said than done. Just because we did it last time doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen again. We’ve got to make it happen.” Durant will try to “make it happen” by cutting down on the turnovers after committed eight of the team’s 16 in the Game 2 setback.
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
* Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 Conference Finals games.
* Under is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 Conference Finals games.
* Home team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
CONSENSUS: As usual, the Warriors are picking up the majority of the betting action - even as road favorites. 62 percent of the Consensus picks are on the Dubs. Picks on the total are a little bit closer with 57 percent of the wagers coming in on the Over.