NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, May 7th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Main thing here is this: do Raptors even want to keep playing? Win here and they have to go back to Ohio. Cleveland won first three series games by 11-22-21 points, can end things here; Cavaliers won their last four games in Toronto. Over is 4-2 in last six series games. Cleveland is 7-0 in playoffs, covering its last five games; they’ll get a long rest if they win here, with Celtic-Wizard series looking like a long one. NBA teams are 0-123 in series when down 3-0 in games. Raptors split their last four home games. Over is 7-3 in last ten Cleveland games. Cavs’ bench outscored Toronto’s 30-9 in Game 3.
Washington held Thomas to 13 points in Game 3 win, after he torched them for 53 in Game 2. Home side won all three Celtic-Wizard games in this series and last seven meetings overall; Boston lost its last three games in this arena, by 25-15-27 points. Four of last six series games went over- favorites are 8-2 vs spread in last ten meetings. Wizards’ Game 3 win ended Boston’s 6-game win streak, both SU/ATS. Wizards won last four home games (3-1 vs spread); three of their last four games went over. Celtics shot 35.1% from floor last game.
Houston went 22-50 on arc in Game 1 upset in San Antonio; they’re 20-63 on arc in two games since, as Spurs’ defense has improved. Spurs won Game 3 without injured PG Parker (out for year); they’re 8-2 in last 10 games with the Rockets, winning last four games in Houston, by 10-6-2-11 points. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Game 3 loss snapped a 4-game home win streak for the Rockets. Harden scored 43 points in Game 3; other four Rocket starters scored 39- obviously they need more balance. Mills played 30:00 off bench to offset Parker’s absence.
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Eastern Conference First Round
No. 2 Cleveland at No. 3 Toronto
LeBron James was extremely confident his Cavs would figure things out in the playoffs. Remember when everyone was worried about their non-existent defense and turnover woes, looking for another team in the Eastern Conference potentially ready to take advantage?
Toronto was on that short list. Barring a home upset on Sunday afternoon, the Raptors will be the second consecutive victim of a Cavs sweep en route to the Eastern Conference finals. After being handled by a combined 33 points in Cleveland, Toronto hung around at home and actually entered Friday night's fourth quarter down just 79-77 before the Cavs opened it with a 20-3 run that essentially put this series away.
As head coach Dwane Casey even said, now the Raps are playing for pride, which can only get you so far against the defending champs. Making matters worse, All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry considers himself "doubtful" to play following an ankle injury suffered in Game 2. Although he suited up and hoped to play on Friday, he left the court in the pre-game and couldn't go. Lowry averaged 20 points and 8 assists per game in the first two, shooting a team-best 56 percent from the field.
Cory Joseph started as he did for most of the regular season's final few weeks and did a nice job helping contain Kyrie Irving, who shot just 7-for-21. Joseph, however, went 2-for-12 from the field and missed all four of his 3-point attempts. For the game, the Raptors shot 2-for-18 from beyond the arc, a puzzling development in their own building when you consider that the Cavs haven't exactly set the world on fire with their perimeter defense.
Toronto did some positive things in Game 3, including getting DeMar DeRozan going after he was non-existent in the first two games, averaging just 12 points and shooting just over 30 percent from the field. He went 12-for-23 and made all 13 of his free throws in scoring a game-high 37 points.
Jonas Valanciunas was again effective despite finding himself back in the starting lineup. Casey has started three different lineups and could unveil a fourth variation if Lowry returns since Norman Powell and Valanciunas are likely to stay in the mix. More than anything, the head coach would love to see his team rediscover their accuracy from beyond the arc.
"It's something we've done, knocking down 3s all year, and for whatever reason, it's escaping us right now," Casey said. "At one point, we were one of the better offensive team s in the league, depending on the 3s, knocking down the 3, and now we have to transfer it from regular-season basketball to playoff basketball."
It's disappointing for Toronto that he's saying that entering Game 4, especially since James has elevated his level in the manner he has, averaging 36.3 points and shooting over 60 percent from the field.
Since evening up last year's Eastern Conference finals at 2-2, Toronto has lost eight of its last nine games against the Cavs, winning only a meaningless regular-season game late last month. It has gone 0-4 at the Air Canada Centre in that span. Cleveland is favored on the road for the fourth time in as many road playoff games and is 2-0-1 against the number thus far, beating Indiana twice. Toronto is 0-4 straight up as a home underdog (0-3-1 ATS).
The Cavs won 10 consecutive games to open last year's postseason and are looking to move to 8-0 here, buying themselves additional rest and practice time. The 'under' hit for the first time in this series on Friday but is just 2-5 over Cleveland's last seven contests.
Eastern Conference First Round
No. 1 Boston at No. 4 Washington
You'll get little resistance saying that this has been the liveliest second-round playoff series to date. Not only did a fight almost break out in Game 3, but the first two games were among the most exciting we've seen in these entire playoffs.
Considering the teams have a history dating back a few seasons, making no secret of their dislike for one another, we've got a budding rivalry developing as the Wizards look to utilize their homecourt advantage to even things up 2-2.
The Celtics won't have to deal with Washington backup wing Kelly Oubre, arguably its top on-ball defender, following his one-game suspension for his running shove of Kelly Olynyk in retaliation for what he felt was a dirty elbow thrown at his face. Oubre was ejected for Game 3 and disciplined again here, likely pushing Bojan Bogdanovic into the sixth man role.
"We've had a next-man-up mentality all year," head coach Scott Brooks said Saturday. "We've got options. We can move some people around. But not having (Oubre), it's not ideal, but it is what it is."
Oubre came off the bench and helped frustrate Isaiah Thomas and Boston's wings with his length, so there's no question that is sure to affect Washington's defense. Thomas scored just 13 points after exploding for 53 in the overtime win in Game 2. More than anything, the team did a better job on the pick-and-roll and didn't give Thomas room to get comfortable. They were up in his personal space, which is a work of diligence more than anything else since he's so small and slippery.
As things stand, the Celtics are undeniably fortunate to be up 2-1 in the series. Washington scored the first 16 points in Game 1 and were up when Markieff Morris severely sprained his ankle by landing on Al Horford's foot, missing the rest of the contest. The Wizards let countless opportunities to win Game 2 slip out of their hands, having led by six points with 2:43 to go in regulation. John Wall and Beal each missed great looks before the final buzzer, and the Celtics dominated the extra five minutes after that.
Brad Stevens consistently repeated the phrase "Washington played well" like a revenge-seeking robot after Thursday's 116-89 win. Maybe he was frustrated his team was involved in a game featuring eight technical fouls and three ejections, but anyone who watches that team regularly during the regular season will tell you that's as animated and frustrated as he's ever been during a game. Stevens normally has the look of a fantastic poker player, so something rattled him in that Game 3. His team struggled through a 22-0 run, so maybe Boston no-showed because they had little left to give. We'll find out today.
Avery Bradley scored just seven points after suffering through a hip issue, so the extra day of rest could be vital for him. Because the Celtics essentially stole a game at home, they've got a free roll in this one. The Wizards have been fantastic at home all season, but face a must-win where all the pressure is on them given how difficult it would be to take three in a row when two of the games would be played in Boston. The Celtics can let it fly, which is how they managed to rally in Game 1 with their 19-for-39 3-point shooting. They outscored the Wizards 71-42 in the second and third quarters of that game, putting together the only significant run they've had over a lengthy stretch in the series.
In contrast, the Wizards have dominated first quarters, winning all three by a margin of 119-70, an average of nearly 40-23. John Wall hasn't been bothered by anything the Celtics have thrown at him, while Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat have set excellent screens to help Washington dominate against the Boston starting five. It will be interesting to see whether Stevens makes an adjustment to try to mix it up.
"We'll make adjustments as a team," Thomas said. "I'll watch film and see where I can pick them apart."
Fouls could be a major part of this one since the team have been at odds so often this season and come in off a volatile Game 3. We could see physical play curbed early, which could lead to game-altering foul trouble and would likely favor the deeper Celtics. Of course, landing in the bonus quickly could also be beneficial to Wall given how unstoppable he can be in pushing pace and getting out in transition.
Game 3 produced the first 'under' of the series, but Boston won the last four games against Chicago in lower-scoring games and would prefer to slow down a Wizards offense averaging 115.7 points thus far.
Western Conference First Round
No. 2 San Antonio at No. 3 Houston
It was puzzling to watch a team that is so intent on pushing tempo consistently walking the ball up the floor in playing right into San Antonio's hands, but that is what most stood out in the Spurs 103-92 upset win in Game 3.
James Harden scored 43 points as the Spurs switched things up and kept the ball in his hands as opposed to sagging off teammates and shading their defense. Nobody else got off. Only Clint Capela, who hit 6-of-9 shots at the rim, shot better than 40 percent as Harden was held to just five assists after averaging 12 over the first two games. Mike D'Antoni opined that "nothing they did should have bothered us. We just didn't play well."
Popovich started rookie Dejounte Murray insted of Patty Mills in Tony Parker's spot at the point, so we'll see if he uses that wrinkle again since it didn't backfire. Still, it is a gamble to throw him out there against a cagey defender like Patrick Beverley and not risk disrupting the rhythm of the other starters, so perhaps Manu Ginobili could get the nod.
Harden's 43-point night featured 5-for-13 3-point shooting, but his teammates were just 7-for-26 around him from beyond the arc and each of Trevor Ariza's makes came in the first half, helping lift an offense that was otherwise held to 39 points. It's obvious that the strategy for San Antonio is to dare Harden, MVP frontrunner, to be efficient enough scoring the ball in one-on-one situations because they're not going to let him get teammates going. Since he was held to just 13 points and had scored 20 or fewer in three of the four games prior to Friday, the assumption is that wrist and ankle injuries, nagging issues he's been playing through, can keep him from dominating as he otherwise would. After opening the postseason by averaging 38.7 points over the first three games against Oklahoma City, he'd shot under 40 percent in three of the last four contests, entering Game 3 in a 22-for-81 shooting slump. He went 14-for-28 on Friday, which marked only the second time he'd shot 50 percent or better this postseason. His best game of the season against San Antonio, a 39-point, 12-assist night where he shot 65 percent, resulted in a 112-110 loss.
The Spurs may be on to something with daring him to beat them.
He's made just 12 of his last 50 3-pointers.
Popovich and his staff have had a history of slowing Harden and forcing him out of his comfort zone with the likes of Leonard and Danny Green as primary defenders.
The Spurs closed out the Grizzlies in Memphis and are looking for their third straight playoff road win. They won Game 3 outright in an underdog role for the first time all postseason. They did sweep both regular-season meetings in Houston and would put themselves in position to go 4-0 and not return to the Toyota Center if they can pull off another upset. Including this series, Houston is just 2-11 against their Southwest Division, in-state rival since Dec. 2014.
The under is 3-2 over Houston's last five games, but just 2-9 over San Antonio's last 11. The under went 3-0-1 during the four regular-season meetings.
Sunday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+6, 214.5)
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (58-31 SU, 41-45-3 ATS, 52-36-1 O/U): LeBron James has operated at will against the Raptors by averaging 36.3 points and shooting 60.4 percent from the field in the three victories. He has been superb overall in seven games this postseason with averages of 34.3 points, nine rebounds, 7.3 assists and 2.4 steals. "We just want to try to get better every game," James said after the victory. "We did that once again. We knew we were coming into a hostile environment. We knew they were going to give us everything they had no matter who was in the lineup and we just had to weather the storm."
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (55-36 SU, 48-42-1 ATS, 48-43-0 O/U): Kyle Lowry averaged 20 points and eight assists in the first two games but injured his ankle in Game 2 and his Saturday comments paint him as highly unlikely to see the court on Sunday. Not having Lowry would be a burden under any circumstance but was magnified even more when backup Cory Joseph was unable to step up and had just four points (on 2-of-12 shooting) and six assists in 33 minutes. Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan registered a career playoff-best 37 points in Game 3 after he tallied just five points on 2-of-11 shooting in Game 2.
LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 6-point home pups for Game 4 and the number has been bumped up to 6.5 with Kyle Lowry calling himself ‘doubtful’. The total hit the betting board at 214 and came down a full point to 213 Saturday afternoon.
INJURY REPORT:
Cavaliers - PG Kay Felder (Out Indefinitely, leg).
Raptors - PG Kyle Lowry (Questionable, ankle).
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Toronto.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards (-4.5, 216)
ABOUT THE CELTICS (59-32 SU, 46-43-2 ATS, 44-43-4 O/U): Boston start point guard Isaiah Thomas went off for 53 points in Game 2 but was limited to 13 in 29 minutes in Game 3 and did not start the second half while staying in the locker room undergoing dental work. Thomas, who lost a tooth and suffered damage to others after running into Otto Porter's elbow in Game 1, is dealing with temporary teeth and bridge work that won't be made permanent until after the season ends but is fighting through the issue and looking for ways to attack the Washington defense. "We'll make the adjustments as a team, I'll watch film, I'll make the adjustments myself and see where I can pick them apart," Thomas told reporters after the loss. "They did a really good job (Thursday), though. On both ends of the floor they set the tone."
ABOUT THE WIZARDS (54-37 SU, 46-44-1 ATS, 56-34-1 O/U): The tension between the teams goes back to the regular season, and shooting guard Bradley Beal is trying to keep his Washington teammates under control. “We know that they’re going to be chippy," Beal told reporters. "We know they want to talk trash, get us out of our game a little bit, be physical with it. We did a good job just keeping our poise." Beal is trying to find his own game while shooting 37 percent from the floor in the series and slumping to a playoff-low 11 points on 4-of-12 shooting in Game 3.
LINE HISTORY: The Wizards opened as 4.5-point home chalk for Game 4 and hasn’t moved off that opening number. As for the total, it hit the board at 215 and was quickly bet up to 216.
INJURY REPORT:
Celtics - Isaiah Thomas (Probable, mouth).
Wizards - SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (Questionable, possible suspension).
TRENDS:
* Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 13-3-2 in Celtics last 18 road games.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets (-5.5, 212)
ABOUT THE SPURS (67-24 SU, 47-42-2 ATS, 50-39-2 O/U): Small forward Kawhi Leonard was solid in Game 3 with 26 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists but the bigger development was power forward LaMarcus Aldridge emerging from his two-game funk. Aldridge scored 26 points on 12-of-20 shooting in Game 3 after averaging just 9.5 points on 8-of-22 shooting over the first two games of the series. "This was his best game, obviously," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told reporters of Aldridge. "He felt good. He was loose as far as his physical nature, his legs and everything. He wasn't too stiff, and it showed. He moved up and down the court well, he was able to push off on the block, he felt good shooting the ball."
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (60-30 SU, 46-44-0 ATS, 45-44-1 O/U): James Harden broke loose for the first time in the series with a 43-point effort in Game 3 after averaging 16.5 on 9-of-30 shooting over the first two games. Even with his big effort, the Houston offense wasn't clicking on all cylinders as only forward Trevor Ariza (17 points) and center Clint Capela (12 points, 16 rebounds) joined Harden in double figures. "We've got to drive it," Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters, referencing the Spurs keeping the Rockets off the 3-point line. "We've got to make an extra pass. We've got to get it to the next guy. We've got to move the ball a little bit better. It's been easy all year. The first shot's there - now it might be like the third pass, and we've got to do a better job moving it."
LINE HISTORY: The Rockets opened 5.5-point home favorites in a must-win Game 4 and that number has yet to move. The total hit the betting board at 211.5 and was bet up slightly to an even 212.
INJURY REPORT:
Spurs - Tony Parker (Out For Season, Quadricep).
Rockets - No injuries to report.
TRENDS:
* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Spurs last seven overall.
* Spurs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Houston.
* Road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors
Here's what we know about King James and his Cavaliers'. They're on a 17-1 SU, 11-7 ATS stretch vs the conference in second season with a winning margin of 14.1 points/game.
Cavaliers have won/covered five straight and seven of nine vs Raptors in post season. Cavaliers have shown a habit of keeping pedal to metal off back-2-back round-2 wins going 8-1 SU, 7-2 against the betting line.