NBA Knowledge
Atlanta-Cleveland
Cavaliers won their last ten games (9-1 vs spread) vs Hawks, covered last four played here, winning by 2-12-8-13 points. Six of last series tilts in series went over total. Cleveland made 21-39 on arc in Game 3, have made a ridiculous 61-115 on arc so far in series. Hawks went 16-34 from arc Friday night, led by six after third quarter, still lost by 13. Atlanta won six of last seven home games, but they're just not good enough here.
Oklahoma City-San Antonio
San Antonio won eight of its last 12 games with Oklahoma City, but Spurs lost two of last three games in Oklahoma, losing by 19-6 points; Westbrook was 10-31 in Game 3; Thunder ench held its own, but Spurs hit 10-19 on arc and took back home court edge. Six of last eight series games stayed under total. Spurs won eight of their last nine games, with four wins in row on road- they covered six of their last eight. Thunder is now 21-72 on arc in this series.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 7-5, over: 6-6
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Antonio at Oklahoma City
San Antonio is a slight favorite (-1.0) for game four of the Conference Semifinals vs Oklahoma City. Intriguing, Spurs have been know to sputter on enemy hardwood laying two or less ponts. In the last seven situations the Spurs are 1-6 against the betting line. Add the fact Spurs haven't exactly been lining bettors' pockets in Oklahoma City at just 3-11 ATS you bet San Antonio at some risk.
Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Cleveland at Atlanta
After setting an NBA record with 25 baskets from 3-point land in Game 2 last Wednesday, the Cavaliers followed up that effort with 21 bombs from downtown on Friday as they defeated the Hawks 121-108 in Game 3 as 2½-point road favorites.
The game was closer than the final score indicated and much tighter than the 25-point blowout in Game 2 but a loss is a loss and the Hawks are all too familiar with this result versus the Cavaliers. Including Friday’s setback, Atlanta has now dropped 10 straight to Cleveland and it’s a dreadful 1-9 against the spread in those losses.
The series isn’t over yet but with Cleveland opening as a 5½-point road favorite for Game 4 on Sunday, it appears the oddsmakers have lost hope in Atlanta.
Including Friday’s setback, the Hawks are now 1-3 both SU and ATS as home underdogs this season and all three losses were 10-plus points.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers believes it's hard to go against Cleveland when they're ready to advance, especially lately.
He explained, "The Cavaliers are 1-0 in close-out games in this year's postseason, plus they went 3-0 both SU and ATS in close-out games of the 2015 playoffs. Three of those victories occurred on the road -- Detroit in the first round this year plus victories against Boston and Chicago last year. Since 2011, LeBron James-led teams have compiled a 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS mark when trying to clinch a series, but two of those losses came with his team (Heat) leading 3-0 on the road in the first round in 2011 and 2012."
It should also be noted that in his playoff career, LeBron has been in 10 series where his team has built a 3-0 series lead. Those teams finished off the sweep eight times while capturing victories in five games in the other two series.
Atlanta has dropped three consecutive games during the regular season four times. After the third loss, the Hawks rebounded with four emphatic wins and three came by double digits while the offense posted 112, 103, 127 and 103 points.
The team total on the Hawks for Game 4 is 99½ while the Cavaliers have a number of 104. After watching Cleveland put up 123 and 121 points, it’s hard not to go against them, especially when a guy like Channing Frye hits 7-of-9 from 3-point land for the Cavs and finishes with a career-high 27 points.
The Hawks got a great performance from an outsider in Game 1 when backup point guard Dennis Schroder erupted for 27 points in 29 minutes. Since then, he’s only played a combined 26 minutes while posting 13 points. I know Jeff Teague has played better in the last two games but Schroder has a different gear and will likely be the starter in Atlanta next season.
After two straight ‘over’ tickets in this series, oddsmakers opened Game 4’s total at 202 and it’s been bet up to 203. Despite Friday’s shootout, Atlanta has watched the ‘under’ go 12-3 in 15 home playoff games under Mike Budenholzer. And since LeBron rejoined the Cavs, the club has watched the ’under’ go 8-3-2 in road playoff games. Even though the trends could have you leaning low, the recent offensive fireworks can't be ignored.
The Cavaliers have played at 3:30 p.m. ET six times this season and have posted a 6-0 mark in these spots, which includes a 106-101 win over Detroit in Game 1 of their first round series. Atlanta has gone 2-2 in afternoon games.
For those believing the Hawks can become the first team in the NBA to win a best-of-seven series after losing the first three games, then check out 5Dimes.eu and grab a generous return of 65/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $6,500).
If necessary, Game 5 will take place on Tuesday from Quicken Loans Arena.
San Antonio at Oklahoma City
San Antonio opened this series with a wire-to-wire blowout in Game 1 but it’s been nothing but close calls in the last two games. The Spurs earned a 100-96 victory on Friday against Oklahoma City as 2½-point road favorites and the outcome came down to the final quarter.
The Thunder led 81-77 with seven minutes remaining in the fourth but were outscored 23-15 and San Antonio earned 11 of those points from the free throw line. OKC couldn’t buy a shot from 3-point land (0-for-5) during this span and turned the ball over three times while looking stagnant on offense.
Looking at the big picture, this best-of-seven matchup has become a game of 2 on 2 with Leonard and Aldridge clashing with Durant and Westbrook.
San Antonio won that battle Friday as Kawhi Leonard led the team with 31 points and 11 boards, which came after a 14-point effort in Game 2’s loss. LaMarcus Aldridge dropped in 24 points on Friday and he’s averaging 34.3 points per game in this series. Those numbers are much needed for San Antonio since it appears that “Father Time” has caught up with Tim Duncan (4 PPG, 4 RPG) a bit earlier than most expected.
All of the blame for OKC is usually pointed at Russell Westrbook, and that criticism is sometimes deserving. He finished with 31 points in Game 3 but he took 13 more shots than Kevin Durant (18) and that includes an ugly 3-of-10 performance from 3-point land. KD finished with 26 and only took six attempts in the fourth quarter.
Westbrook owned his play in Game 3. "Execution. That starts with me," Westbrook said. "I've got to do a better job of executing and putting guys in position to score the basketball, especially late. And especially against good defense. You've got to find ways to move the ball around and that starts with me, so I've got to do a better job leading into the next game."
Fast forward to Sunday’s key matchup and the Spurs have been installed as short road favorites (-1) over the Thunder and that’s a real tricky number to handicap.
Oklahoma City has gone 2-0 both SU and ATS off a loss in this year’s postseason and it should feel confident at home versus the Spurs. The Thunder have gone 11-3 against San Antonio in their last 14 meetings at Chesapeake Energy Arena and that includes a 5-2 record in the playoffs.
However, the Thunder are underdogs and their numbers when catching points haven’t been great at the betting counter. OKC is 2-12 as an underdog this season and that includes a 0-2 mark at home.
Even though this venue hasn’t been kind to San Antonio, Gregg Popovich’s team is 8-2 in its last 10 playoff games on the road which includes three victories in this year’s postseason.
The total for the first three games in this series closed at 200 and the ‘under’ has cashed in the last two games. Overall, the ‘under’ has cashed in six of the past eight meetings between the pair. Sunday’s number is hovering around 198 and that’s the lowest total that these teams have seen since a Christmas Day affair in 2014. That game went ‘over’ the number, easily.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has adjusted their series odds to San Antonio at minus-900 (Bet $100 to win $11) while the takeback on Oklahoma City has ballooned to plus-600 (Bet $100 to win $600.)
After this game, the series heads back to San Antonio on Tuesday for Game 5.
Sunday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks (+5, 203)
The Cleveland Cavaliers are putting on a 3-point shooting show and are on the verge of sweeping the Atlanta Hawks for the second straight postseason. Cleveland made 21 3-pointers on Friday - four shy of its record-setting performance in Game 2 - and looks to finish off the host Hawks in Sunday's Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series.
Backup forward Channing Frye knocked down seven 3-pointers and scored 27 points in Friday's 121-108 victory, which marked the Cavaliers' 11th consecutive postseason win over the Hawks. Cleveland has made 61 3-pointers in the series -- the most through three games of any playoff series in NBA history. "We have some great shooters," Cleveland forward LeBron James told reporters. "The reason why we have great shooters is because that ball is popping - the ball has energy behind it, and guys feel confident when the ball gets to them that they can just let it go." Atlanta was outrebounded by a 55-28 margin in Game 3 but coach Mike Budenholzer downplayed the differential by saying "we outrebounded them in the first game and lost. I think what matters more is who scores the most."
LINE HISTORY: With their backs up against the wall, the Hawks have opened as 5-point home pups for Game 4 and the line has yet to move off that number. The total opened at 202 and has been bet up to 203. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (64-25, 42-44-3 ATS, 45-44 O/U): Frye's performance was easily the best postseason showing of his career as his previous best effort was 20 points in 2010 when he played for the Phoenix Suns. He said teammate James Jones told him to shoot more because he's not a good passer and James has also been urging him to hoist more long-range shots. Three other Cavaliers topped 20 points - James had 24 points and 13 rebounds, point guard Kyrie Irving scored 24 points and power forward Kevin Love made five 3-pointers while contributing 21 points and 15 rebounds.
ABOUT THE HAWKS (52-39, 45-45-1 ATS, 41-50 O/U): Atlanta attempted to shake things up in Game 3 by inserting Thabo Sefolosha into the starting lineup and bringing shooting guard Kyle Korver off the bench. The move helped Korver as he made five 3-pointers while scoring 18 points - he averaged five points over the first two contests - while center Al Horford also had a breakout performance with 24 points on 11-of-15 shooting and expressed that more moves are necessary. "We're fighting for our playoff lives right now," Horford told reporters. "At this point, we have to do some changes, because what we've done hasn't worked."
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.
* Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last five road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Hawks last five when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (+1, 198)
Oklahoma City small forward Kevin Durant could be playing his final home game as a member of the franchise when the Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs in Sunday's Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals. Durant has been coy about his postseason free-agent intentions and an Oklahoma City loss on Sunday would present the Spurs with the opportunity to close out the series at home in Game 5.
Durant isn't interested in discussing whether or not he will return to the Thunder and also scoffed at questions pertaining to how the team will need to win at least one more time in San Antonio to win the series. "We play Sunday," Durant said at Friday's postgame press conference. "We play Sunday. We can't worry about going to San Antonio. We've got another game here." Spurs small forward Kawhi Leonard was the Game 3 hero with 31 points and 11 rebounds in a 100-96 victory while power forward LaMarcus Aldridge continued his strong series with 24 points and eight rebounds. Aldridge is averaging 34.3 points and shooting 63.1 percent in the series.
LINE HISTORY: The Thunder have opened Game 4 as slight 1-point home pups and have remained at that number. The total has been bet down one point from its opening number of 199 to the current 198. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE SPURS (73-16, 49-40 ATS, 37-50-2 O/U): Veteran point guard Tony Parker scored 19 points in Game 3 after averaging 4.5 over the first two games and also contributed eight rebounds and five assists in a strong all-around effort. "It was great," Parker told reporters. "I got a couple of more shots than usual. Just have to be aggressive. It's all about the team. Kawhi and LaMarcus, they were unbelievable. I just had to do my part." Leonard's 30-point outing was his second of the postseason and he is averaging 23.3 points in the Oklahoma City series.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (60-30, 41-48-1 ATS, 43-47 O/U): Standout point guard Russell Westbrook had 31 points, nine rebounds and eight assists in Game 3 but his five turnovers and porous 10-of-31 shooting stood out in a four-point loss. "Too many shots," Westbrook told reporters. "I've got to do a better job getting guys shots. I've got to get other guys involved, especially to beat this team. Even though I had some shots I usually make, I've got to read and find ways to get guys shots. I take the blame." Durant only took 18 shots (making 10) while scoring 26 points and red-hot power forward Serge Ibaka (15 points on five 3-pointers) could have received more attempts (eight overall, six from 3-point range).
TRENDS:
* Spurs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Conference Semi finals games.
* Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 14-2 in Spurs last 16 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Cavaliers (-5, 205) at Hawks
Cleveland has dominated this series, and they can close it out this afternoon. The Cavaliers have beat Atlanta in ten consecutive meetings, and after the way the last three games have gone, it’s hard to see the Hawks snapping their losing streak. Cleveland’s 55.4% (51-92) 3-point shooting is certainly due to regress sharply, and that sets them up for a mediocre performance, but despite the extra line value today, Atlanta is simply hard to trust considering how poorly they match-up against the Cavaliers.