Thursday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
New Orleans Hornets at Houston Rockets (-10, 186)
All things considered, the Houston Rockets have to be pretty happy with their start to the season.
They started the year with seven games on the road in their first 10 contests and head into Thursday’s game having won six of their last seven. They’re now at 7-7 straight up and 9-5 against the spread after pounding Detroit 97-80 on Tuesday.
Six different Rockets scored in double-figures, while Samuel Dalembert led the way with 14 points and 12 rebounds.
"It was a big win for us to get back to .500," Rockets coach Kevin McHale told reporters. "I told our guys that schedule we had to start off the year was brutal, the hardest in the league. I didn't know when we'd get back to .500. We got back to .500 pretty quickly."
Houston’s depth should be too much for New Orleans to handle.
Pick: Rockets
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz (-2.5, 184)
The L.A. Clippers might be known as Lob City, but the Utah Jazz looked like the real high fliers in Tuesday’s 108-79 blowout win over the Clips.
Utah got 20 points from Paul Millsap and a host of highlight-reel dunks from reserve Jeremy Evans to upstage Blake Griffin. More importantly, it was the seventh time the Jazz have covered the number in their last eight games.
“I guess people know who we are now (and) we’re going to continue to try to fight (and) continue to try and get better,” Millsap told reporters following the win.
This is a tough spot for the Mavericks, who visit those Clippers Wednesday before traveling to Utah for this one.
With the Jazz putting up at least 100 points in three of their last four, Dallas might have a tough time keeping up in a track meet on short rest.
Pick: Jazz
Thursday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Thursday NBA card involves just three contests to wager on, but it includes a battle of two of the biggest stars in the league hooking up in South Florida. The Lakers and Heat each bring plenty of pizzazz heading into Thursday's matchup, the first of two between these elite squads. The night concludes in Salt Lake City with the Jazz looking for another home victory against the resurgent Mavericks.
Lakers at Heat
The star power will be down one with Dwyane Wade likely sitting out again due to a sprained ankle, but that won't slow down one of his teammates. LeBron James attempts to move this Miami squad atop the Southeast Division with a win, but the task won't be easy against Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. Los Angeles begins a two-game Sunshine State trip that concludes in Orlando on Friday, as the Lakers play their first game east of the Rockies this season.
Wade missed Tuesday's 120-98 blowout of the Spurs as seven-point favorites, snapping a three-game losing streak. Miami erased a 14-point deficit by outscoring San Antonio, 39-12 in the third quarter, while Mike Miller knocked down all six of his three-point attempts in the win. James overcame a slow start by scoring 33 points and dishing out 10 assists, as the Heat hit 16 treys for their fourth victory in four tries without Wade this season.
The Lakers bounced back from an 0-2 start to the season by winning 10 of the next 13 games to take over first place in the Pacific Division. Bryant caught fire with four consecutive games of 40 or more points, including a season-high 48-point effort in a 99-83 home triumph over the Suns last Tuesday. The streak came to a close by scoring just 14 points in Monday's close-shave victory against Dallas, as the Lakers failed to cover as four-point 'chalk' in a 73-70 win.
Los Angeles is certainly adapting to Mike Brown's defensive style of play by allowing 100 points or more just three times this season, while cashing the 'under' in 11 of 15 games. The Lakers own a 1-4 ATS record on the road (including a loss to the Clippers), as the only win came in overtime at Utah last Wednesday. Miami is a solid 8-5 to the 'over' this season, including 10 times in which the Heat eclipsed the 100-point plateau.
Mavericks at Jazz
The defending World Champions started the season at 1-4, but Dallas has rebounded nicely with seven victories in the past nine contests to climb above .500. The Mavericks play their third game in four nights with a trip to Utah to battle a Jazz club that owns a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS mark at home this season. Tyrone Corbin's team begins play on Thursday right in the middle of the Northwest Division race with four of five teams owning at least eight victories.
The Jazz continue a four-game homestand after routing the Clippers on Tuesday, 108-79 as five-point favorites. Utah has sailed over the 100-point mark in four of the previous five contests, while limiting eight of its last nine opponents to below 100 points. The Jazz is 4-1 SU/ATS the last five games against unrested opponents, as Utah is being led by forward Paul Millsap of late, who is averaging 22.1 points per game over the last five contests.
The Mavericks looked to be in disarray after a pair of home blowout losses to the Heat and Nuggets to kick off the season, but that seems like a distant memory. Dallas has not allowed 100 points in 11 consecutive games, while compiling a solid 8-1 ATS record the past nine contests. During this strong defensive stretch, the Mavericks are helping 'under' bettors by cashing 10 times in the last 11 games. Dallas wrapped up last season as one of the top road underdogs in the league, as the Mavs haven't missed a beat in that department with a 3-1 ATS ledger when receiving points on the highway.
This series belonged to the Mavs last season as Rick Carlisle's club won and covered all four games against the Jazz. Granted, Utah fell apart after the All-Star break, but Dallas snapped a five-game skid at EnergySolutions Arena with a 12-point victory last December as four-point 'dogs.
Hot Teams
-- Lakers won six of last seven games, but are 1-3 outside of LA.
-- Rockets won five of their six home games (6-0 vs spread).
-- Jazz won seven of eight at home, covering five of last six.
Cold Teams
-- Heat lost three of last four games, but they're 4-1 at home.
-- Hornets lost last five games, but they're 4-2 as road underdogs.
-- Mavericks lost last two games by combined total of five points.
Totals
-- Six of last seven Miami games went over the total. Under is 3-1 in Lakers' games outside of Staples Center.
-- Six of Hornets' last eight games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Dallas road games stayed under the total.
Wear and Tear
-- Lakers: Didn't play the last two nites. Heat: 2nd game/6 nites.
-- Hornets: 5th game/7 nites. Rockets: 7th game/10 nites.
-- Mavericks: 7th game/10 nites. Jazz: 4th game/6 nites.
LA LAKERS (10 - 5) at MIAMI (9 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-0 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS (3 - 10) at HOUSTON (7 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games in January games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 6-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 6-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS (8 - 6) at UTAH (9 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 71-44 ATS (+22.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 44-21 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 5-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Lakers last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the LA Lakers last 13 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home
NEW ORLEANS vs. HOUSTON
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against New Orleans
DALLAS vs. UTAH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games at home
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Hoop Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since March 09, 1999 as a dog after a loss in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Jazz are 12-0 OU (12.4 ppg) since December 22, 2010 as a favorite after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
PLAYER BASED TREND OF THE DAY:
The Mavericks are 8-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since November 25, 2009 with no rest after a loss in which Dirk Nowitzki was the Mavericks’ high scorer.
SBB’S CHOICE TREND:
The Rockets are 0-9 OU (-14.3 ppg) since November 19, 2003 as a home favorite with at least one day of rest after a win in which they had more turnovers than assists.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Jazz are 8-0-2 ATS (6.7 ppg) since February 17, 2009 as a home favorite after a home win in which they outshot their opponent by at least 10 percent.
LA LAKERS at MIAMI
LA LAKERS: 19-8 Under playing w/ 2 days rest
MIAMI: 1-7 ATS after scoring 120+ pts
NEW ORLEANS at HOUSTON
NEW ORLEANS: 12-1 Under Away off division game
HOUSTON: 6-25 ATS at home playing 5th time in 7 days
DALLAS at UTAH
DALLAS: 8-0 Under playing 3rd time in 4 days
UTAH: 21-9 Under at home vs. Dallas
Game of the day: Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat
By Covers.com
Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat (-5.5, 193.5)
THE STORY: The NBA’s two top scorers will go head-to-head when the Los Angeles Lakers travel to South Florida to take on the Miami Heat on Thursday. Despite a ligament issue in his right wrist, Kobe Bryant is averaging a league-best 30.8 points per game. In fact, some would argue that the 33-year-old hasn’t been better. Bryant has scored 40 or more points in four of his last five games, but South Beach hasn’t been kind to the Lakers as of late. They’ve lost six of their last seven visits to Miami and are looking to avoid a fourth straight loss to the Heat. LeBron James has been a Laker killer as of late. Not only is his 29.8 points per game second-best in the league, but he’s 9-2 in his last 11 meetings with L.A.
INJURIES: LeBron James is a game-time decision for Thursday matchup according to an ESPN.com Heat beat writer. Brian Windhorst tweeted that James was excused from the Thursday morning shootaround because of flu-like symptoms. LBJ has been feeling under the weather for most of the week but he lit up San Antonio for 33 points on 12 of 21 shooting. The King would have to be pretty sick to avoid a showdown with Kobe, especially with All-Star teammate Dwyane Wade already ruled out.
LINE: Many books are holding the line due to James' status. Some books have opened at -5.5 in favor of the Heat. The total opened at 193.5.
ABOUT THE LAKERS (10-5, 7-8 ATS): With the game tied at 70 apiece and 9.9 seconds remaining, the Lakers inbounded the ball to Kobe Bryant who, after being double-teamed at the top of the arc, found Derek Fisher for the game-winning three-point field goal with 3.1 seconds to give Los Angeles a 73-70 victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Monday. The Lakers sputtered in the third quarter with just seven points, the franchise’s second-lowest scoring quarter in the NBA’s shot clock era.
ABOUT THE HEAT (9-4, 6-7 ATS): The Heat exploded to score a season-high 71 points in the second half of a 120-98 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday. James led the way scoring 17 points in the third quarter, en route to 31 in the game. It's a safe bet bet James will be determined to continue his recent success when he squares off against his former coach, Mike Brown. One of the biggest concerns right now for Miami is the health of Dwyane Wade. The point guard sat out Tuesday’s game and is day-to-day with a sprained right ankle.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Miami.
* Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
* Lakers are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.
* Lakers are 0-6 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The Heat are averaging a league-high 107.2 points per game.
2. The Lakers have played 10 of their first 15 games at home and are just 1-4 on the road this season.
3. The Lakers lead the all-time series 29-17.
PREDICTION: Heat 110, Lakers 97