Thursday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings (6.5, 204)
Even though Monta Ellis grabbed the spotlight Tuesday night, the Oklahoma City Thunder had the last laugh.
Ellis went off for 48 points, hitting 18 of his 29 attempts from the floor, but the Thunder hung around and Kevin Durant banked in a trey with 14.2 seconds left on the clock to give Oklahoma City a 119-116 win to cover as a 2-point favorite.
"It's one of those things where you shoot it and you're like, 'Aw, that's a terrible shot.' When it went in, I was kind of surprised," Durant told reporters.
It’s been that kind of season for the Thunder, who are averaging better than 101 points per game and are 9-6 against the spread on the road this season.
Sacramento has looked better lately, but we don't think they'll be up to this kind of challenge yet. The Thunder have covered in four of their last five meetings with the Kings.
Pick: Thunder
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns (-3, 200.5)
Steve Nash knows what you were thinking when his Suns nearly blew a 21-point lead in the third quarter in Tuesday’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks, the club’s second in as many nights.
"I'm sure Vegas looks at that and says, 'Scheduling loss,'" Nash told the Arizona Republic Tuesday. "For us to go from up 21 to down four, that was a pretty memorable win."
The Suns did manage to come back for 107-105 win as 8-point underdogs, with Nash hitting the game-winning bucket with five seconds left in the fourth quarter. He finished with 18 points and 11 assists to cap off a pretty impressive 38th birthday.
Phoenix has now won four of its last five and look like they’ll be competitive as long as Nash keeps playing like he’s a decade younger than he is.
These are two of the best under teams in the Association and this total looks a little high to us.
Pick: Under
Thursday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Thursday NBA card gives bettors four games to wager on, including two of the league's oldest rivals getting together in Boston. The Lakers continue a six-game road swing against a Celtics' team that is suddenly getting on track. The Kings and Thunder hook up for late-night action in Sacramento, as Oklahoma City is coming off consecutive close victories on the West Coast.
Lakers at Celtics
Both these second-place teams each have put up 14 wins through the first six weeks of this condensed season, as the two squads meet for the first of two matchups over the next month. The Lakers slipped up late at Philadelphia on Monday, 95-90 as 3½-point underdogs, dropping their second straight game. The Celtics are riding a five-game winning streak, even though Boston failed to cover as 14-point 'chalk' in a 94-84 win over hapless Charlotte on Tuesday.
Boston began the season at 5-9 and was labeled as an "old, beat-up" team, but that suddenly changed with a 9-1 run the previous 10 games. The only hiccup in this hot stretch came in a home loss to Cleveland in which the Celtics blew a late 11-point lead in an 88-87 defeat as 6½-point favorites. Boston's defense has stepped up recently by allowing less than 100 points in nine consecutive games, while going 12-5-1 to the 'under' the last 17 contests.
The Lakers aren't helping themselves on the highway with a 2-7 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog, including consecutive losses at Utah and Philadelphia. Mike Brown's team has broken the 100-point mark only three times this season, while the Lakers are 3-6 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 90 points or less. The road squad won each meeting last season, including a 92-86 triumph by Los Angeles at TD Garden as two-point 'dogs last February.
Warriors at Nuggets
Golden State makes a quick trip to the Pepsi Center on Thursday after a disappointing three-point setback to Oklahoma City. Despite Monta Ellis scoring 48 points, the Warriors couldn't hold on as they failed to cash as two-point underdogs in a 119-116 loss to the Thunder. Golden State looks to rebound at Denver, as the Nuggets try to put enough healthy bodies on the floor following Wednesday's game against the Mavericks.
Mark Jackson's club is starting to resemble old Warriors' basketball by cashing the 'over' in five of the last six games after beginning the season 7-1 to the 'under.' Golden State is playing only its ninth road game of the season, while owning a 4-4 ATS record in the first eight games away from Oracle Arena. The Warriors haven't had the best luck against the Nuggets by dropping eight of the last nine meetings, including six consecutive losses in Denver.
The Nuggets are without leading scorer Danilo Gallanari for at least a month with an ankle injury, while getting center Nene back against Dallas after missing two games with a heel injury. Denver has been cold recently from an ATS standpoint by failing to cash in five of the last six games, including three straight at home. George Karl's team is 5-3 ATS when playing with no rest, while picking up two overtime wins in this situation against the Knicks and 76ers.
Thunder at Kings
Who would have thought that the only team to cover every February game is Sacramento? The Kings try to extend their cover streak to seven games when the top team in the league invades Power Balance Pavilion. The Thunder heads from Oakland to Sacramento after rallying past the Warriors on Tuesday, 119-116 as short road favorites, the second straight close-shave victory for Oklahoma City. Now, the Thunder plays their fifth game in seven nights, while trying to cover three straight games for the first time since mid-January.
Oklahoma City is in the midst of a 7-1 'over' stretch, including five of the last six on the highway. The Thunder owns a 7-3 ATS record away from home with rest, while Scott Brooks' club looks to improve its defense after allowing over 100 points in each of the first three games of this road swing. Oklahoma City swept the four-game season series in 2010-11, as the Kings covered just once in a two-point home defeat last February.
The last time the Kings failed to cover was a 29-point home loss to the Nuggets on January 25, as Sacramento has split the last six games with the three setbacks all coming by three points or less. Keith Smart's team is coming off a 1-1 road trip against New Orleans and Minnesota, as the Kings needed late comebacks each time to cash tickets. Sacramento has profited at home with a 6-4 ATS mark, including underdog wins over the Lakers, Blazers, and Pacers.
Hot Teams
-- Celtics won last five games, but are 3-7 vs spread in last ten games as a home favorite.
-- Phoenix won four of its last five games- they're 2-5 as a home favorite. Rockets won three of last four games, covered six of last eight on road.
-- Sacramento won three of last four games, covered last six. Thunder won eight of its last ten games.
Cold Teams
-- Lakers are 3-8 vs spread away from Staples Center.
-- Denver lost four in row, six of last seven games. Warriors are 2-6 on the road, 4-4 as road underdog.
Wear and Tear
-- Lakers: Had last two nites off. Celtics: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Warriors: 2nd game/5 nites. Nuggets: 6th game/8 nites.
-- Rockets: 5th game/7 nites. Suns: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Thunder: 5th game/7 nites. Kings: 3rd game/4 nites.
Totals
-- Three of last four Laker games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Golden State games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Houston games stayed under total.
-- Five of Thunder's last six road games went over total.
LA LAKERS (14 - 11) at BOSTON (14 - 10) - 2/9/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 98-122 ATS (-36.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=91 points/game since 1996.
BOSTON is 69-89 ATS (-28.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 9-30 ATS (-24.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 41-70 ATS (-36.0 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-5 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GOLDEN STATE (8 - 14) at DENVER (15 - 11) - 2/9/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 62-48 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 127-171 ATS (-61.1 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 5-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 6-1 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (15 - 11) at PHOENIX (11 - 14) - 2/9/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 6-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 6-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA CITY (20 - 5) at SACRAMENTO (9 - 16) - 2/9/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 116-93 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 63-44 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-1 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Lakers last 7 games when playing Boston
LA Lakers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Boston's last 18 games
GOLDEN STATE vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing Denver
Golden State is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
HOUSTON vs. PHOENIX
Houston is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Phoenix is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Houston
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. SACRAMENTO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
Sacramento is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Hoop Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Celtics are 0-13 ATS (-7.0 ppg) since November 01, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a game in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Suns are 11-0 OU (10.5 ppg) since March 26, 2010 at home after a win in which Channing Frye played fewer than 30 minutes.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Kings are 0-11 OU (-13.2 ppg) since March 23, 2011 after a loss on the road in which Demarcus Cousins was not the Kings’ high scorer.
CHOICE TOP TREND:
The Kings are 0-10 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since December 04, 2006 with at most one day of rest off a loss of four points or fewer in which they trailed by 15+ points.
LA LAKERS at BOSTON
LA LAKERS: 1-9 ATS after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games over
BOSTON: 17-7 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more
GOLDEN STATE at DENVER
GOLDEN STATE: 34-20 UNDER in road games after allowing 105 points or more
DENVER: 14-4 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite
HOUSTON at PHOENIX
HOUSTON: 17-6 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog
PHOENIX: 8-18 ATS against Southwest division opponents
OKLAHOMA CITY at SACRAMENTO
OKLAHOMA CITY: 50-37 OVER as a favorite
SACRAMENTO: 10-0 OVER in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points