Thursday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns (-3.5, 200.5)
Before the Phoenix Suns went into the All-Star break, coach Alvin Gentry left them with some choice words.
The Suns gave up 39 points to Golden State in the first quarter last week and even though they crawled back into it later thanks to 21 points and 15 rebounds from Marcin Gortat, they still fell 106-104 as 4-point favorites.
"That game was lost in the first ten minutes," Gentry told reporters. "We got an opportunity to do something good and to come out like that is just ridiculous. It's unfair to the fans in the stands. The way we approached the game (stunk).”
The Suns haven’t given their hometown supporters much to cheer about all season. They are just 7-9 straight up and 6-10 against the spread as hosts.
That said, the Timberwolves will be playing their third game in three nights, so you have to wonder how much they’ll have left in the tank.
Pick: Suns
Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings (3.5, 201.5)
Los Angeles has had a bad habit of blowing leads late in games and tanked again in a 109-97 loss to Minnesota on Tuesday.
The Clippers have lost three of four and will try to right the ship when they start a six-game trip Thursday night at Sacramento.
The Clippers have not had much luck in Sacramento, losing seven of eight and 23 of their past 26 there. They’re 2-4-1 against the spread in their last seven versus the Kings.
“We’re going to have to play on a higher level, especially on the road now, but maybe that will help us come together more,” coach Vinny Del Negro told reporters.
We think the best value here is with the under.
Pick: Under
Thursday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Thursday NBA card showcases four games, including a pair of important interconference matchups. The Heat starts a three-game road trip in Portland against the Blazers, looking for their 28th victory in 35 contests. We'll begin in central Florida with a rematch of opening night as Oklahoma City heads to Orlando.
Thunder at Magic
Back on Christmas night, Oklahoma City took care of Orlando at home, 97-89 as 8½-point favorites. The Thunder led by as many as 22 points in the victory, while Kevin Durant poured in a game-high 30 points. Oklahoma City looks for the season sweep on Thursday, as the Thunder heads to the Amway Center following Wednesday's game at Philadelphia.
The Magic is also playing with no rest after Wednesday's contest at Washington, as Orlando owns a 5-2 ATS record on the second of back-to-backs. Stan Van Gundy's team is at home for the first time since a February 17 comeback victory over Milwaukee, while scoring the final 17 points of that game to cash as 7½-point 'chalk.' Orlando has put together a 2-2 SU/ATS record when playing with revenge this season, as one of those losses came at home to Boston as 10-point favorites on January 26.
Oklahoma City isn't great against the number when playing without rest, going 5-7 ATS, but the Thunder won nine of those 12 games straight-up. The Thunder has split their last six opportunities in the road favorite role against the number, while losing twice at Houston and Sacramento over the last three weeks.
The home team has won each of the last six meetings in this series, while the Magic has taken each of the previous home matchups by an average of 18.2 points per game. Orlando routed Oklahoma City last February, 111-88 as six-point favorites, as Dwight Howard dropped 40 points and 15 rebounds in the blowout.
Heat at Blazers
Miami is the last team to take the court after the All-Star break as the Heat heads to the Pacific Northwest for a battle with the Blazers. Portland returns to the Rose Garden following Wednesday's division showdown with the Nuggets, as the Blazers seek consistency after a shaky finish to the first half of the season.
Nate McMillan's club has won just five of their last 12 games after beating down the Bobcats by 44 points on February 1. The Blazers are 2-4 SU/ATS the previous six home contests, including losses to the Wizards and Rockets. Portland is listed as a home underdog for the third time this season, as the Blazers have lost to the Clippers and Thunder by a combined seven points.
The Heat has won and covered five consecutive road games, all in the favorite role. In fact, Miami's previous six victories on the highway have all come by double-digits, while beating Indiana, Atlanta, and Philadelphia handily. The Heat owns teams playing with no rest by putting together a 4-1 SU/ATS record against these clubs, as the lone defeat came at the Clippers in overtime.
The road team has taken six of the last seven meetings, including both matchups last season. The Heat pulled out an overtime triumph at the Rose Garden, 107-100 as five-point 'chalk' last January, as LeBron James scorched Portland for 44 points and 13 rebounds. The Blazers avenged that loss two months later with a 105-96 win as nine-point 'dogs in Miami, as Portland had six players score in double-figures.
Hot Teams
-- Thunder won last six games, is 8-3-1 in last dozen games as a road favorite. Orlando won and covered four of last five home games.
-- Minnesota covered six of last eight games as a road underdog.
-- Sacramento won/covered four of its last five games.
-- Miami won its last eight games (7-1 vs spread).
Cold Teams
-- Suns lost five of their last seven games.
-- Clippers lost three of their last four games.
-- Portland lost seven of its last eleven games.
Back-to-Back
-- Oklahoma City is 2-4-1 vs spread on road if it played night before. Orlando is 3-4 vs spread if it won night before.
-- Minnesota is 5-3 vs spread on road if it played night before; dogs are 8-7 vs spread if playing for third night in row.
-- Portland is 3-2 vs spread at home if it played night before.
Wear-and-Tear
-- Thunder: 2nd nite in row. Magic: 2nd nite in row.
-- T'wolves: 3rd nite in row. Suns: 1st game in eight nites.
-- Clippers: 2nd game/3 nites. Kings: 2nd game/3 nites.
-- Heat: 1st game in a week. Trailblazers: 2nd nite in row.
Totals
-- Thunder's last three road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-3 in Minnesota's last eleven road games.
-- Three of last four Clipper games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Portland home games went over total.
Armadillosports.com
OKLAHOMA CITY (28 - 7) at ORLANDO (23 - 13) - 3/1/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 122-97 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 65-46 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (18 - 18) at PHOENIX (14 - 20) - 3/1/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 33-49 ATS (-20.9 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 61-40 ATS (+17.0 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHOENIX is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 7-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA CLIPPERS (20 - 12) at SACRAMENTO (12 - 22) - 3/1/2012, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 32-49 ATS (-21.9 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 183-231 ATS (-71.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 4-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 4-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MIAMI (27 - 7) at PORTLAND (18 - 17) - 3/1/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. ORLANDO
Oklahoma City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando's last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
MINNESOTA vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Phoenix is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
LA CLIPPERS vs. SACRAMENTO
LA Clippers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games on the road
LA Clippers are 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Sacramento is 22-3 SU in their last 25 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
MIAMI vs. PORTLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Portland
Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Portland
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Portland is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
OKLAHOMA CITY at ORLANDO
OKLAHOMA CITY: 12-4 ATS off road game
ORLANDO: 0-8 ATS off 4+ road games
MINNESOTA at PHOENIX
MINNESOTA: 15-6 ATS as an underdog
PHOENIX: 0-10 ATS if home favorite L2 games
LA CLIPPERS at SACRAMENTO
LA CLIPPERS: 0-8 ATS if favored L2 games
SACRAMENTO: 11-1 Over at home if total is 200 to 204.5
MIAMI at PORTLAND
MIAMI: 13-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points
PORTLAND: 12-4 ATS off SU loss
Hoop Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The League is 9-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since February 26, 2008 on the road after a home loss in which they attempted at least 10 fewer three pointers than their season-to-date average. Active on LA Clippers.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Heat are 10-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since November 05, 2010 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Magic are 0-8 OU (-10.0 ppg) since May 14, 2009 after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Dwight Howard had more rebounds than points.
CHOICE TREND:
The Kings are 9-0 OU (19.3 ppg) since January 16, 2009 at home after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Trailblazers are 8-0 OU (14.4 ppg) since February 19, 2008 off a road loss in which they never led.
The Thunder are 9-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since December 29, 2010 when facing a non-conference team they beat as a favorite in their first match-up of the season.
NBA TNT Doubleheader: What Bettors Need to Know
Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic (+1.5, 192)
THE STORY: The Oklahoma City Thunder opened their abbreviated 2011-12 season with a hard-fought victory over the Orlando Magic on Christmas Day. They'll look for a season sweep of the Magic on Thursday as they pay a visit to Orlando. The Thunder have won six consecutive games, including a 92-88 come-from-behind win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday to open the second half of their season. The Magic have also been strong of late, beating Washington 102-95 Wednesday for their third win in four games.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (28-7, 20-15 ATS): Orlando fans are quite familiar with the Thunder's two superstars, point guard Russell Westbrook and small forward Kevin Durant. The two electrified Sunday's All-Star Game at the Amway Center; Durant took home MVP honors with a 36-point performance in the 151-149 Western Conference victory, while Westbrook added 21 points on an array of dazzling shots and thunderous dunks. Westbrook was sensational against the Sixers on Wednesday, scoring 22 points and adding 13 rebounds. Durant scored 23 points in the win.
ABOUT THE MAGIC (23-13, 20-16 ATS): With the buzz of the midseason showcase now in the rearview mirror, Magic supporters can get back to the business of cheering their team to a spot in the playoffs. Which spot Orlando will secure is still very much in doubt. The Magic enter Thursday's action sitting fifth in the East, meaning they would have to do without homecourt advantage in the opening round of the postseason. The upcoming schedule doesn't offer many easy matchups, with the Magic facing Miami and Chicago twice each over their next 11 contests.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Orlando.
* Under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.
* Thunder are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings in Orlando.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The teams have split their last six encounters, with the home team winning each time.
2. Magic superstar Dwight Howard averages 20.9 points, 13.9 rebounds and 2.8 blocks in 15 career games against the Thunder.
3. Orlando F Ryan Anderson has knocked down at least two 3-pointers in each of his last eight games. He leads the NBA with 103 made 3s.
PREDICTION: Thunder 105, Magic 95
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers (+5, 196.5)
THE STORY: The Miami Heat were the hottest team in the NBA heading into the All-Star break. With the Big Three healthy and dangerous as ever, the Heat will try to extend their winning streak to nine games as they kick off a West Coast trek Thursday night against the Portland Trail Blazers. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade nearly led the East to a come-from-behind win over their West counterparts in Sunday's midseason showcase; now, they'll refocus on their goal of finishing atop the conference standings. Portland is hovering around the .500 mark following a 104-95 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night.
ABOUT THE HEAT (27-7, 18-16 ATS): Miami isn't simply stringing together victories; it's rolling over every team in its path. Each of the Heat's eight consecutive wins have been by 12 points or more, a run of dominance that has the club ahead of Chicago by the narrowest of margins in the race for Eastern Conference supremacy. March should present a reasonable challenge for the Heat, who will play 10 of their 16 games this month away from Miami. That begins with Thursday's game against the Trail Blazers, the opener of a three-game road swing.
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (18-17, 18-16-1 ATS): Portland came out flat in their first game of the second half, falling behind by 17 points at halftime against the Nuggets and never getting back into the game. The Blazers find themselves in a logjam in the Northwest Division, a half-game back of second-place Denver and just 1 1/2 games out of last place. Thursday marks the beginning of a three-game homestand for Portland, and building momentum will be critical with a grueling eight-game road trip kicking off in less than a week.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Over is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in Portland.
* Heat are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Portland.
* Heat are 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The road team has won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings.
2. The Heat lead the NBA at 103.7 points per game, and have averaged nearly 107 points over the course of their winning streak.
3. James averages 29.6 points. 9.6 rebounds and 7.6 assists in 16 career games against the Trail Blazers.
PREDICTION: Heat 111, Trail Blazers 97