Thursday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (1, 211)
The Denver Nuggets have dropped four of their last five against the spread, but at least the club’s supporters are seeing a bit of progress.
Danilo Gallinari finally looked more like himself after recovering from his foot injury in a 118-117 overtime win against Atlanta on Tuesday.
After failing to crack 10 points in his first three game back in the lineup, he scored 19 points and hit a key trey near the end of regulation.
"I think it's trying to get him into easy opportunities where you get more layups and easy shots, rather than trying to play one-on-one and get into the teeth of the defense," coach George Karl about Gallinari. "It's trying to get more actions by playing before the defense gets set, running the court, maybe getting some offensive boards and get confidence from easy opportunities."
With Oklahoma City sputtering, we like the Nuggets in this spot.
Pick: Nuggets
Washington Wizards at New Orleans Hornets (-3, 193)
If the Washington Wizards don’t make any moves ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline, it won’t be for lack of effort.
Rumors continue to fly around that Andray Blatche – among others – may have already played their last games with Washington when the Wizards dropped a 107-98 decision to the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday.
Still, coach Randy Whittman is happy with the progress his group is making.
“We came here and I thought we fought them tooth and nail,” Wittman told reporters. “Against good teams like this, your margin for error of us, being what we are as a young team, is small. We’ve just got to keep fighting like that, and keep improving. Making steps in the improvement defensively we need to make.”
Tough to make a call on this one before the deadline, but each of the last three meetings between these teams have played under.
Pick: Under
Hot Teams
-- Dallas won seven of last nine home games, but is 3-8-1 vs spread in its last dozen home games.
-- Denver won six of its last eight games, but is 2-6 vs spread in its last eight home tilts. Thunder are 7-2 against spread in game following a loss.
-- Minnesota is 9-5 in its last 14 games; they covered five of their last seven on the road. Utah won/covered four of its last five at home.
-- Suns won/covered six of their last eight games.
Cold Teams
-- Wizards lost 10 of last 12 games (4-8 vs spread). New Orleans is 2-9 vs spread in its last eleven home games.
-- Charlotte covered once in its last six road games.
-- Clippers are 3-5 in last eight home games (2-6 vs spread).
Wear-and-Tear
-- Wizards: 3rd game/4 nites. Hornets: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Bobcats: 7th game/10 nites. Mavericks: 2nd game/5 nites.
-- Thunder: 2nd game/5 nites. Nuggets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- T'wolves: Had last two nites off. Jazz: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Suns: 3rd game/4 nites. Clippers: 4th game/5 nites.
Totals
-- Last five Washington games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Charlotte road games went over total.
-- Four of last five Oklahoma City road games stayed under.
-- Over is 10-4 in Minnesota's last fourteen road games.
-- Four of last five Clipper home games stayed under total.
Back-to-Back
-- Hornets are 6-4 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Bobcats are 4-8 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Jazz is 2-6 vs spread if they lost the night before.
-- Suns are 7-4-1 vs spread if they played the night before. Clippers are 7-4 vs spread if they played the night before.
WASHINGTON (9 - 32) at NEW ORLEANS (10 - 33) - 3/15/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-30 ATS (-15.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CHARLOTTE (6 - 35) at DALLAS (24 - 20) - 3/15/2012, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA CITY (32 - 10) at DENVER (24 - 19) - 3/15/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 71-56 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 125-101 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 66-47 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-6 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-5 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (22 - 21) at UTAH (20 - 22) - 3/15/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 23-38 ATS (-18.8 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 5-5 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 6-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHOENIX (20 - 22) at LA CLIPPERS (24 - 17) - 3/15/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 258-309 ATS (-81.9 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 6-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 8-1 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
Washington is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games at home
CHARLOTTE vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Charlotte's last 15 games on the road
Charlotte is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games
Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
MINNESOTA vs. UTAH
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Utah is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Denver
Denver is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
PHOENIX vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Phoenix is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
LA Clippers are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games at home
WASHINGTON at NEW ORLEANS
WASHINGTON: 6-15 ATS after one or more consecutive overs
NEW ORLEANS: 17-6 ATS against Southeast division opponents
CHARLOTTE at DALLAS
CHARLOTTE: 24-48 ATS against Southwest division opponents
DALLAS: 33-17 UNDER after having lost 2 of their last 3 games
OKLAHOMA CITY at DENVER
OKLAHOMA CITY: 61-42 OVER after playing a game as a home favorite
DENVER: 27-15 OVER when playing 8 or more games in 14 days
MINNESOTA at UTAH
MINNESOTA: 21-36 ATS after one or more consecutive overs
UTAH: 28-15 ATS after allowing 110 points or more
PHOENIX at LA CLIPPERS
PHOENIX: 64-40 ATS after allowing 105 points or more
LA CLIPPERS: 13-28 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite