Thursday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (-1, 201)
There’s never a dull moment with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Andrew Bynum became the latest Laker to find himself in coach Mike Brown’s doghouse after he put up an ugly trey attempt in Tuesday’s win over Golden State.
Bynum only played 5:17 in the second half after the miss and the Lakers ended up dropping the cash as 7-point favorites in the 104-101 win.
"I don't know what was bench-worthy about the shot, to be honest with you," Bynum told reporters after the game "I made one (vs. Memphis) and I wanted to make another one. I swear, that's it. I guess he took offense to it, so he put me on the bench."
Brown is obviously trying to put his stamp on the team and this tough love might be good for the Lakers down the road. However, they’ve covered only once over the last seven and it’s tough to back them here with the Thunder riding a four-game winning streak.
Pick: Thunder
New Orleans Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers (-8.5, 184.5)
While the Portland Trail Blazers are still hanging around in the playoff hunt, they’re still very much a work in progress.
Oklahoma City emphasized that with 109-95 blowout Tuesday night after jumping out to a quick start.
“A 32-point first quarter, a 33-point second quarter,” Portland coach Kaleb Canales told reporters of the Thunder’s early attack. “We didn’t bring our hard hats in the first half to defend, and Durant and Westbrook played like all-pros.”
The good news for the Blazers is that Raymond Felton is expected to return to the team after visiting with his mother while she underwent a heart procedure.
Portland has also covered the number in each of its last three meetings with the lowly Hornets.
Pick: Trail Blazers
Thursday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Thursday NBA card showcases just four games this week, but the two TNT contests are ones to watch. The Heat and Mavericks meet up in South Florida, while the night-cap takes place at Staples Center with the Thunder taking on the Lakers. We'll start with the NBA Finals rematch at the American Airlines Arena between Miami and Dallas.
Mavericks at Heat
Miami looks to snap a two-game losing streak as the Heat returns home for a crucial showdown with the Mavs. Dallas has won six of its previous eight games after capturing a home-and-home sweep of Houston. The Heat didn't receive the same fortune following consecutive losses at Oklahoma City and Indiana, as Miami dropped two straight games by double-digits for the first time all season.
Rick Carlisle's club won the franchise's first championship last summer in six games over the Heat, but Miami picked up a modicum of revenge in this season's opener. The Heat blitzed the Mavs early in a Texas-sized Christmas Day blowout, 105-94 as 4 ½-point favorites. The final score was not indicative of how the Heat played, grabbing a 15-point lead after one quarter, while taking a 97-65 advantage into the final quarter.
LeBron James led the Heat in the opener with 37 points, but the former MVP is dealing with a dislocated ring finger (ironic) on his left hand suffered in Monday's loss at Indiana. James is expected to play on Thursday, as the Heat attempts to win their 21st home game in 23 tries this season. Miami has held six straight opponents to below 100 points at home, while all six games finished 'under' the total.
Dallas has underachieved on the highway by putting together a 10-14 record away from the American Airlines Center. The Mavs are riding a 2-8 SU stretch on the road since February 19, but Dallas managed pointspread covers at Houston, Denver, and Oklahoma City. Winning in South Florida hasn't been an issue for Dallas in this series, taking seven of the last eight meetings, including the NBA Finals clincher last summer as five-point 'dogs.
Thunder at Lakers
The Derek Fisher reunion takes place at Staples Center, less than two weeks after the Lakers dealt the veteran point guard to the Rockets. Following a buyout from Houston, Fisher latched on to the young Thunder squad as a backup to Russell Westbrook. Not only is this a big game emotionally for Fisher, but for this Oklahoma City team who looks to make a statement with a win over Los Angeles.
The Thunder goes for their fifth consecutive victory after cruising past the Blazers, 109-95 as 4½-point 'chalk.' Oklahoma City has dominated on the road with a 16-8 SU and 14-10 ATS mark, but the Thunder is listed as an underdog for just the third time this season (1-1 SU/ATS). Scott Brooks' club is in the midst of an important stretch here after beating the Heat on Sunday, while returning home to host the Bulls on Sunday.
The Lakers own one of the top home records in the league at 20-4, but Mike Brown's team has failed to cover in each of its last six opportunities in the favorite role at Staples Center. The Purple and Gold is helping 'over' bettors by cashing in 11 of their previous 13 games, including three of the last four at home. Los Angeles isn't profiting off a road victory by posting a 3-7 ATS mark, including non-covers at home against Cleveland, Minnesota, and Memphis.
In the lone meeting this season, the Thunder beat the Lakers at Chesapeake Energy Arena prior to the All-Star break, 100-85. OKC cashed as seven-point favorites, while Kevin Durant led the way with a game-high 33 points. The Lakers shot just 38% from the floor, only the second loss for L.A. in the last six meetings with Oklahoma City.
Game of the day: Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
By Covers.com
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat (-8, 189)
THE STORY: Dallas and Miami meet for the second time this season in a rematch of last season’s NBA Finals. The Heat got a bit of revenge with a 105-94 win over the Mavericks on Christmas Day. If they want to make it two in a row over their Western rivals, they'll need to snap an offensive funk and overcome a finger injury to LeBron James. James is expected to play despite dislocating the middle finger on his non-shooting hand Monday.
ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (29-22): Back-to-back wins over Houston has Dallas on track. The Mavericks have won six of their last eight games to jump to fifth in the Western Conference standings. Dallas got a big boost from its bench Tuesday, with the reserves contributing 48 points and outscoring the starters by six. Dirk Nowitzki was the only member of the starting five in double figures, scoring 21 points. He’s been red hot in recent games, averaging 25.6 points in his last nine outings.
ABOUT THE HEAT (35-13): Even before injuring his finger in Monday’s loss to Indiana, James wasn’t playing his best basketball. He’s averaging just over 18 points and shooting 39 percent from the field in his last five games. The finger injury, along with a sore ankle and nagging right elbow could be the cause for his drop in production. Miami is averaging only 89.8 points over the last six games after leading the league in scoring for most of the season. Coach Erik Spoelstra denies that his team is running on empty and says that the decline is more about defenses stiffening with the playoffs around the corner. Miami is in danger of losing three straight games for just the second time this season.
TRENDS:
- Dallas is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 road games.
- Miami is 0-4 against the spread in its last four vs. the Western Conference.
- Dallas is 13-3-1 against the spread in its last 17 games in Miami.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Miami has taken back-to-back double-figure losses - the first time it has done so since adding James and Chris Bosh.
2. Dallas center Brendan Haywood and guard Delonte West could both return from injury Thursday.
3. Dwyane Wade became just the second player in NBA history 6-foot-4 or shorter to recorded 600 career blocks, stuffing four shots in Monday’s loss.
Hot Teams
-- Mavericks won six of last eight games, but lost eight of ten on road; they're 5-1 as road underdogs of 4+ points.
-- Hornets won three of their last four road games; they're 16-9 as road underdogs this season.
-- Oklahoma City won its last four games; they're 6-0 vs spread on road in games where spread is 2 or less points. Lakers won 11 of last 13 at home, but are 0-5 vs spread in last five home games.
Cold Teams
-- Pacers are 2-6 as home favorites of 8+ points. Washington is 5-11-1 as a road underdog of 8+ points.
-- Heat lost last two games, by 16-15 points; they're 5-1 as home faves of less than nine points.
-- Trailblazers lost 11 of their last 16 games.
Wear-and-Tear
-- Wizards: Had last 2 nites off. Pacers: 6th game/8 nites.
-- Mavericks: 2nd game/5 nites. Heat: Had last two nites off.
-- Hornets: 6th game/9 nites. Blazers: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Thunder: 3rd game/5 nites. Lakers: 3rd game/5 nites.
Totals
-- Last eight Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Miami home games stayed under. Four of last five Dallas road games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Portland home games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Thunder games went over the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Pacers are 2-6 vs spread if they lost the night before.
-- Hornets are 4-0 vs spread when playing second straight nite on road.
Armadillosports.com
WASHINGTON (11 - 38) at INDIANA (29 - 20)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 18-30 ATS (-15.0 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 65-87 ATS (-30.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 7-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS (29 - 22) at MIAMI (35 - 13)
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 86-65 ATS (+14.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 137-103 ATS (+23.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 54-30 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 7-4 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 8-3 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS (13 - 37) at PORTLAND (23 - 27)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-4 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-4 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY (38 - 12) at LA LAKERS (31 - 19)
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 107-69 ATS (+31.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 130-104 ATS (+15.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 68-48 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 62-79 ATS (-24.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 52-67 ATS (-21.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-6 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 9-5 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MARCH 29, 7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. INDIANA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Indiana
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing Washington
DALLAS vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 10 games
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Miami is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
Miami is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
NEW ORLEANS vs. PORTLAND
New Orleans is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
New Orleans is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Portland's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. LA LAKERS
Oklahoma City is 5-18 SU in their last 23 games when playing LA Lakers
Oklahoma City is 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
LA Lakers are 18-5 SU in their last 23 games when playing Oklahoma City
WASHINGTON at INDIANA
WASHINGTON: 0-4 ATS at Indiana
INDIANA: 12-26 ATS playing on BB days
DALLAS at MIAMI
DALLAS: 12-0 ATS off division win
MIAMI: 0-9 ATS at home playing w/ 2 days rest
NEW ORLEANS at PORTLAND
NEW ORLEANS: 16-7 ATS as road underdog
PORTLAND: 5-10 ATS in March
OKLAHOMA CITY at LA LAKERS
OKLAHOMA CITY: 29-16 ATS as road dog of 6 pts or less
LA LAKERS: 19-8 Over off ATS loss
Hoop Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Wizards are 0-10 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since January 19, 2009 as a road dog after a game at home in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The League is 0-11 OU (-12.0 ppg) since December 06, 2010 after a double digit win in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted. Active on LA.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Pacers are 0-10 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since December 20, 2010 with no rest after a loss in which Danny Granger had more turnovers than assists.
CHOICE TREND:
The Heat are 0-11 OU (-16.3 ppg) since November 30, 1996 at home with two or more days of rest after a game in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Trailblazers are 0-12 OU (-13.4 ppg) since December 07, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Wizards are 0-9 OU (-19.7 ppg) since December 02, 2003 on the road with at least one day of rest after a home loss in which their DPS was minus 15 points or less.