Thursday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (-5.5, 205)
Indiana won by six when these teams met in Indianapolis last Saturday.
That loss hurt the Bucks, but not as much as Wednesday's did. Losing to the Wizards in humiliating fashion, Milwaukee now finds itself 2 1/2 games back of Philly for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
The Bucks will be desperate coming into Indy, which has won six straight.
"It's an absolute must-win for us," coach Scott Skiles said. "We have to find a way to get that game.
The road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Pick: Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons (-5.5, 196)
Detroit took the East-leading Chicago Bulls to overtime on Sunday and unleashed a dominating performance in a 116-77 win over Cleveland on Tuesday. The lead was 100-50 after the third quarter. But after shooting 60 percent in that contest, the Pistons shot 34.8 percent from the floor in a 116-84 loss at Atlanta on Wednesday. Brandon Knight, who led the way with 28 points against Cleveland, slumped to five points on 2-of-9 shooting against the Hawks.
The good news is that everyone is well rested. No one on the roster logged more than 30 minutes in either of the two contests.
The Minnesota Timberwolves may not be tanking, but they sure are fading fast.
The Timberwolves have lost Kevin Love and 11 straight games. After the first week in March, the Timberwolves were battling for a playoff spot. Now they are staring at another winless April. Ricky Rubio’s injury began the downfall, and a handful of games missed by Nikola Pekovic and Michael Beasley accelerated the drop.
The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite.
Pick: Pistons
Hot Teams
-- Indiana won its last six gams, covered last five.
-- Hornets won six of last eight home games (8-0 vs spread).
-- Bulls won four of their last five games. Miami won its last four tilts (3-1 vs spread).
-- Clippers won last five games, covered last three on road. Phoenix won 11 of its last 14 home games; they're 2-3 in last five overall.
Cold Teams
-- Bucks lost four of their last five games.
-- Minnesota lost its last 11 games (2-9 vs spread). Pistons lost six of their last eight games.
-- Rockets lost their last five games (0-5 vs spread).
Wear-and-Tear
-- Bucks: 2nd nite in row after three off. Pacers: 5th game/7 nites.
-- T'wolves: 3rd game/4 nites. Pistons: 3rd in row, 6th game/8 nites.
-- Rockets: 4th game/5 nites. Hornets: 4th game/5 nites.
-- Bulls: 4th game/5 nites. Heat: 6th game/8 nites.
-- Clippers: 5th game/7 nites. Suns: 3rd game/4 nites.
Totals
-- Last four Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Minnesota road games went over.
-- Five of last seven Houston games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Chicago road games stayed under.
-- Six of last nine Phoenix home games went over total.
Back-to-Back
-- Bucks are 0-3 vs spread when playing 2nd nite in row on road.
-- Pistons are 1-5 vs spread at home if they played on road nite before.
-- Houston is 4-8 vs spread on road if it played nite before. Hornets are 10-6 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Miami is 6-8 vs spread if it won the night before. Bulls are 5-3 vs spread on road if they played nite before.
-- Clippers are 4-2 vs spread on road if they played nite before. Phoenix is 6-3-1 vs spread at home if they played night before.
Armadillosports.com
MILWAUKEE (29 - 32) at INDIANA (40 - 22) - 4/19/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
MILWAUKEE is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MILWAUKEE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 66-48 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after scoring 105 points or more this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 4-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 6-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (25 - 38) at DETROIT (23 - 39) - 4/19/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 31-44 ATS (-17.4 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 50-80 ATS (-38.0 Units) in home games when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (32 - 30) at NEW ORLEANS (19 - 43) - 4/19/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-21 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
HOUSTON is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 85-46 ATS (+34.4 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
HOUSTON is 50-21 ATS (+26.9 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
HOUSTON is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 7-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 6-3 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CHICAGO (47 - 15) at MIAMI (44 - 17) - 4/19/2012, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-7 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-7 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA CLIPPERS (39 - 23) at PHOENIX (32 - 30) - 4/19/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 391-458 ATS (-112.8 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 133-182 ATS (-67.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PHOENIX is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
PHOENIX is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
PHOENIX is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 7-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 9-2 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE vs. INDIANA
Milwaukee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Milwaukee is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indiana's last 12 games
Indiana is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
CHICAGO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Miami's last 21 games when playing Chicago
Miami is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
HOUSTON vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games on the road
New Orleans is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Houston
LA CLIPPERS vs. PHOENIX
LA Clippers are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Phoenix's last 9 games at home
Phoenix is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home
Milwaukee at Indiana
Milwaukee: 2-10 ATS revenging home loss
Indiana: 13-4 ATS after scoring 100+ BB Games
Minnesota at Detroit
Minnesota: 17-8 Over as road underdog
Detroit: 13-4 ATS at home off loss by 15+
Houston at New Orleans
Houston: 10-1 Over Away off 4+ ATS losses
New Orleans: 21-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Chicago at Miami
Chicago: 19-7 ATS playing 3rd road game in 5 nights
Miami: 1-5 ATS after allowing 80 pts or less
LA Clippers at Phoenix
LA Clippers: 13-5 Under playing on back to back days
Phoenix: 4-17 ATS revenging double digit road loss
Hoop Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Pacers are 16-0-1 ATS (10.1 ppg) since April 07, 1999 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a road win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Bucks are 0-10 OU (-14.8 ppg) since December 21, 2010 as a road dog after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Hornets are 11-0-1 ATS (5.7 ppg) since February 23, 2011 after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Trevor Ariza was not the Hornets’ high scorer.
CHOICE TREND:
The Suns are 0-9 OU (-18.3 ppg) since November 14, 2001 at home with no rest when their opponent has averaged fewer than 13 turnovers per game on the road season-to-date.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Pistons are 8-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since April 13, 2008 as a favorite when seeking revenge for a loss in which they led at the half.
The Bulls are 8-0 OU (16.5 ppg) since November 30, 2009 after winning the previous matchup at home in which Derrick Rose played fewer than 30 minutes.
The Suns are 0-7 OU (-12.2 ppg) since January 07, 2011 after a loss at home in which Steve Nash took fewer than 10 shots.
Bulls - Heat Preview
Sportspic.com
The Chicago Bulls are still more likely than not to gain the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but recent struggles have prevented them from closing the door against the Miami Heat.
Why Chicago Will Win
The professional basketball pundit class has been divided on the matter of whether Chicago has the stuff to beat Miami if the two teams meet in the playoffs. Some commentators would claim that the ranks of online bettin analysts are giving too much credence to the Heat and their reputation, based on what happened in last year's postseason, when Miami beat Chicago in five games to win the Eastern Conference finals. Other pundits are very much of the opinion that the Heat will indeed be able to flip the switch and play the level of ball they exhibited last May, when they did indeed outfox the Bulls in a best-of-seven postseason series. Which way will the pendulum swing in this game, the final regular-season meeting between the two teams? Chicago has the better collection of ten players.
Yes, Miami has the two best players on the court – LeBron James and Dwyane Wade – but this is a team game, and Chicago has the deeper team of skilled basketball players. The Bulls' bench has towered over the Heat's bench… it did so last week when Chicago scored an overtime win over Miami in the Windy City. Chicago, down by three points in the final seconds, received a tying triple from reserve C.J. Watson with 2.2 seconds left on the clock. The Bulls took that momentum and ran with it in the overtime to lock down the victory.
Chicago's bench scored almost as many points and grabbed almost as many rebounds as its starting five did on that night. Guys like Taj Gibson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, and Omer Asik provide a great deal of energy on defense and on the glass while contributing enough jump shooting to give the Bulls scoring punch at the offensive end of the floor. Miami's bench has not been able to come close to Chicago's all season long, and with Miami's starters logging so many minutes, Chicago can stay fresher over the course of a game, putting more active bodies on the floor. This is the blueprint for a Chicago win.
Why Miami Will Win
When you do your homework and assess your sports bet on this specific game, you will likely come to the realization that the Bulls' limitations might catch up with them. Derrick Rose has barely played over the past three weeks due to lingering back injuries plus an injured ankle, while Luol Deng missed Chicago's game this past Monday against Washington due to ongoing issues with his left (non-shooting) wrist. Chicago is in a position where it is trying to get healthy for the playoffs, and it's hard to see the Bulls winning on the road in Miami under these conditions.
Who Will Win
It’s not as though Miami is a lot better than Chicago – it isn't – but the Bulls are banged up, and the Heat had to feel stung by their inability to beat the Bulls on the road a week ago. Expect Miami to play with more passion and urgency. The Heat know that they need to send a message to the Bulls before the playoffs begin; they will take this game seriously and not let up.
Pick: Miami
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Yesterday’s card in the Association featured an eye-opening 14 games and if you played the favorites, then you’re probably still out celebrating. The ‘chalk’ went 12-2 straight up and 11-3 against the spread yesterday and most of the results were never in doubt. It’s fair to say that Houston was the worst underdog beat of the night as it was outscored by 13 points against Dallas in the fourth quarter. And if you bet on the Bobcats or Raptors, then shame on you.
Total players watched the ‘over’ go 10-4 and that could’ve easily been 11-3 if Oklahoma City and Phoenix put up any points in the last two minutes. Then again, who would’ve expected Portland and Utah to combine for 62 points in the final quarter, right?
It’s been a wild season, especially for bettors, and the action continues tonight with five more matchups. Let’s break ‘em down!
Milwaukee at Indiana: This is a must-win spot for the Bucks, who are coming off a huge loss at Washington (112-121) last night. The Bucks now trail the 76ers by 2½-games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Indiana will clinch the No. 3 seed in the East with one win or one Boston loss. These teams met last Saturday in Milwaukee and the Pacers captured a 104-99 victory as 3½-point underdogs. They also met in late March and Indiana posted a 21-point (125-104) win at home. The Pacers are only giving 5½-points here which seems low considering they’ve won six straight and 10 of 11 (8-3 ATS). Meanwhile, Milwaukee has dropped four of five and the defense has allowed 109, 111, 105 and 121 points in those setbacks. Do you take the desperate team or the better team?
Minnesota at Detroit: Betting on a meaningless game between non-playoff teams doesn’t bode well for your bankroll. Can you really consider taking the Timberwolves with the points knowing that they’ve lost 11 straight (3-8 ATS) games? Or do you give the number with Detroit, who is coming off a 32-point whitewashing in Atlanta (84-116) last night. The Pistons have been respectable (8-12 SU, 10-10 ATS) on zero days rest this season. Delving into the numbers further, the ‘over’ has gone 15-5 (75%) in those 20 games, which could be the look tonight. The total opened 194 at BetOnline.com and has jumped up to 197. The Pistons have seen the ‘over’ go 10-1 in their last 11 due to a lack of defense and up-tempo style, plus they have some gunners on the outside. Minnesota’s offense isn’t as consistent, which could put this number in jeopardy. The pair met on Jan. 18 and the Wolves stopped the Pistons 93-85 as nine-point favorites.
Houston at New Orleans: Here we have another matchup where one team (Houston) faces the must-win situation. If Houston wins, it will be tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West with Utah. The public has backed the Rockets here, which has moved the line from 3 to 5 at most betting shops. A rule of thumb in gambling is to never bet on a slumping team and that’s exactly what Houston is these days. The Rockets are 0-5 in their last five, plus they’re playing on no rest after last night’s collapse in Dallas (110-117). New Orleans doesn’t have as much talent as Houston or a lot of other teams in the Association, yet it’s managed to produce a 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS mark in April. Eric Gordon is listed as ‘probable’ for the Hornets and if you believe it matters, this is the last home game of the season for NOLA. The Rockets nipped New Orleans 90-88 in overtime on Jan. 18, but failed to cover as 9½-point home favorites. Make a note that Houston is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite this season.
Chicago at Miami: Even though these teams will most likely be squaring off in the upcoming Eastern Conference Finals, tonight’s matchup won’t have much buzz. The Bulls need to win two of their final four games to get the top seed in the East and three games for the top overall seed. Point guard Derrick Rose (foot) is ‘doubtful’ and most would expect Luol Deng (ribs) to take another day off too. Chicago is playing in a back-to-back spot after destroying Charlotte (100-68) last night, but none of the starters played over 24 minutes. Miami is coming off a layup win over Toronto (96-72) on Wednesday and it did so without the duties of Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. The Heat lost to Chicago 96-86 last Thursday in overtime and the game never sees the extra session if LeBron James makes a free throw. Miami is only giving 5½ points tonight, which seems like a bargain for a team that has gone 26-4 at home and has routinely posted double-digit wins. However, this Chicago team has been tough without Rose (14-10) and it should be noted that the reigning MVP played the most minutes against the Heat when Miami beat Chicago 97-93 on Jan. 29. This game is set for 8:05 p.m. ET, with TNT providing national coverage.
L.A. Clippers at Phoenix: Very tough game to handicap here and coincidentally we have another matchup between a hot team and a desperate team. The L.A. Clippers started the season strong and now they’re finishing it even stronger. The Clips are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 and they bring a five-game win streak into the desert tonight. Last night, the Nuggets earned an impressive win at Denver (104-98) which was preceded by Monday’s home victory over Oklahoma City (92-77). The Clippers control their own destiny for the No. 3 seed but they’ll need to win their final four games or hope the banged-up Lakers give them some help. Similar to Houston, Phoenix can put itself into a tie with Utah for the final playoff spot in the West with a win here tonight. The Suns have played great lately too but they’re thriving more as bullies. Phoenix is 7-4 both SU and ATS in its last 11 with the four setbacks coming to quality clubs (Nuggets, Grizzlies, Spurs, Thunder) and it’s safe to say the Clippers are in that group. Fatigue could be a factor but both the Clippers (10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS) and Suns (11-8 SU, 11-8 ATS) have been decent on zero days rest this season. The two clubs played three times and March and the Suns won and covered two of the three. Total players should note that the ‘under’ cashed in all three yet tonight’s number (197.5) is higher than the previous games. TNT will provide national coverage at 10:35 p.m. ET.