What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's NBA Action
By Covers.com
Miami Heat at New York Knicks (5, 186.5)
THE STORY: The New York Knicks’ frustration is about to have an impact on the on-court product in a significant way. Amar'e Stoudemire punched a fire extinguisher case after a loss in Game 2, cutting his hand to the point that he will have to miss at least Game 3. With Iman Shumpert already out and Jeremy Lin not quite ready to return, the Knicks are now working without three starters against the Miami Heat, who have had little trouble in taking a 2-0 series lead.
ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami dominated at both ends in Game 1, getting most of their scoring from LeBron James while the entire team worked to hold the Knicks to 67 points. In Game 2, James handed off some of the scoring load to his teammates. Dwyane Wade led with 25 points and Chris Bosh scored 21 in a more balanced effort. The Heat, who went 18-15 on the road this season, should cruise into New York with plenty of confidence. Even the supporting cast, which had been the subject of some criticism prior to the postseason, has stepped up. Mike Miller and Shane Battier have delivered valuable minutes off the bench and Mario Chalmers is averaging 12 points and 7.5 assists.
ABOUT THE KNICKS: Stoudemire had surgery to repair a small muscle in his left hand on Tuesday and is doubtful for Game 4 on Sunday and the rest of the series, should New York be able to extend. Counting Shumpert (torn anterior cruciate ligament) and Lin (torn meniscus), the Knicks are down to just Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler from their projected starting five. Chandler, who was named the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year on Wednesday, has been battling the flu but rebounded from a scoreless Game 1 to collect 13 points and seven boards in a 104-94 Game 2 loss. Anthony went for 30 and nine but New York still did not have enough to stop the Heat. That setback marked the 12th straight playoff loss for the Knicks, tying the NBA record.
TRENDS:
- The under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
- Miami is 1-5 against the spread in its last six road games.
- New York is 20-6 against the spread in its last 26 home games.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The Knicks went 14-5 without Stoudemire during the regular season.
2. New York went 22-11 at Madison Square Garden in 2011-12, but suffered a 93-85 loss in their only home date against the Heat on Apr. 15.
3. Wade has gone for 20 or more points in a franchise-record 71 of his 89 career playoff games.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks (-3.5, 194.5)
THE STORY: The Dallas Mavericks have squandered two chances to steal home-court advantage – and potentially two wins – from the Oklahoma City Thunder. That puts the reigning NBA champions in a must-win position to avoid moving to the brink of elimination as the first-round series shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Thursday night. "Game 3 is Game 7," Mavericks guard Jason Terry said of his team's precarious position. Dallas has led inside the final minute in each game only to come up empty.
ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City has to feel fortunate to hold a 2-0 series lead despite the shooting woes of Kevin Durant, the league’s three-time scoring champion. Durant has gone just 15 of 44 in the two games, but he buried the game-winning jumper in Game 1 and hit the go-ahead free throws in Game 2. The Thunder got unexpected offensive contributions from starting center Kendrick Perkins and backup point guard Derek Fisher, who scored 13 and 11 points, respectively, in Game 2 after both were held off the scoresheet in the series opener. It was the highest offensive output for Perkins since March 25.
ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: Dallas beat the Thunder in five games last season, helped by a pair of fourth-quarter comebacks, but it was unable to close the deal in Oklahoma City. The Mavericks have been relying heavily on their outside shooting, launching 45 3-point attempts in the first two games and converting only five of 23 attempts in Game 2. Point guard Jason Kidd has hoisted up a team-high 12 in the series, making just three, and is 4 of 18 overall from the floor. Dirk Nowitzki may need to conjure up his magic of last season, when he burned the Thunder for a pair of 40-point outings.
TRENDS:
- Dallas is 1-3-1 against the spread in its last five playoff games as a favorite.
- The Thunder is 0-5 against the spread in their last five.
- The under is 12-5 in Oklahoma City's last 17 road games.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Oklahoma City has won five of six meetings with the Mavericks this season. The margin of victory has been four points or fewer in four of the victories.
2. Kidd reached a postseason milestone with 1,000 points, 1,000 assists and 1,000 rebounds. Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird and Scottie Pippen are the only others to accomplish the feat.
3. Thunder PG Russell Westbrook is averaging 28.5 points on 52.3 percent shooting in the series.
NBA Preview
Knicks @ Heat -- Stoudemire is gone after cutting his hand after Game 2 loss; NY lost Shumpert in Game 1, so now Bibby/Novak have to play more minutes, which won't work. Knicks are 0-5 vs Miami this season, losing by 10-8-14-33-10 points- they're 2-12 overall in last 14 series games, losing four of last five played here, with six points closest of the four losses. Heat lost 10 of last 15 road games; they've taken twice as many FTs (60-30) as NY in series so far, and are +15 in turnovers. Six of last seven series games stayed under total.
Mavericks @ Thunder -- Oklahoma City is up 2-0 after winning couple terrific games, decided by 1-3 points; as usual, shooting percentages in Game 2 dropped (for both teams) from Game 1, but unless Kidd/West make more than 7-22 they hit in Game 2, they'll continue to be given open shots. Durant is just 15-44 from floor in series, but has made big plays down stretch; Harden is giving OC 17 ppg off bench, but Ibaka was held to one hoop in Game 2, after scoring 22 points in opener.
Armadillosports.com
MIAMI (48 - 20) at NEW YORK (36 - 32)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 83-68 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 8-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 10-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY (49 - 19) at DALLAS (36 - 32)
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) against Southwest division opponents this season.
DALLAS is 94-74 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 126-93 ATS (+23.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
DALLAS is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in the first round of the playoffs over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 72-53 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 11-7 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 9-9 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI vs. NEW YORK
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing New York
New York is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 7 games when playing Miami
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. DALLAS
Oklahoma City is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Dallas's last 25 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Dallas is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Miami at New York
Miami: 36-19 Under after playing BB games as a favorite
New York: 11-3 ATS at home off a road game
Oklahoma City at Dallas
Oklahoma City: 4-13 ATS off win by 3 points or less
Dallas: 7-0 Over off BB road losses
Thursday's Playoff Notes
By Antony Dinero
VegasInsider.com
New York at Miami
Without Amar'e Stoudemire, Jeremy Lin and prized rookie stopper Iman Shumpert, the New York Knicks host their first playoff game in 2012 decidedly short-handed. In a perfect world, they would have LeBron James in uniform instead of leading the opposition, which would certainly be working out better for them than what's transpired to date.
Down 2-0, New York has had to watch James shut down Carmelo Anthony thus far in this series, as the team's top free agency target in 2010 has teamed with Shane Battier to hold him to 15-for-41 shooting. Anthony scored 30 points in Monday's 104-94 loss -- a push at most books -- but frustrated Stoudemire with his lack of ball movement enough to cause him to take his anger out on a fire extinguisher in the bowels of Miami's American Airlines Arena, causing hand lacerations that will keep him out of Game 3 and possibly this weekend's Game 4.
For New York, it's been that type of series. Miami sent a message that its minds were in playoff mode in Saturday's opener, winning 100-67 to alleviate concerns that stars James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh had rested too much down the stretch. Shumpert, who interim head coach Mike Woodson was counting on to help contain Wade, tore his ACL. Newly-crowned Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler has been rendered ineffective due to a bout with the flu.
Outside of J.R. Smith, Knick reserves are shooting 11-for-30 in the series. Despite all that, the Heat insist this series hasn't started since all they've done is simply hold serve at home. That's standard practice this time of year, but certainly, the defending Eastern Conference champs know the Knicks are ready for a knockout blow. After losing the final two meetings of the 2011 regular season to New York, the Heat has been on alert against their high-profile in rival in 2012, sweeping all three regular-season meetings. The 93-85 win engineered on April 15 at Madison Square Garden represents the only home loss for the Knicks since March 11, a stretch of 12 games. Among New York's victims during that run where the Bulls, Celtics, Pacers and Clippers, an indication of how well the team has responded to the pressure of performing in front of a packed house at the world's most famous arena.
Despite all the attrition, Spike Lee and a pack of vocal supporters will be in attendance hoping the Knicks can actually make this a series. Pulling that off will hinge on being able to execute against a defense that has clamped down by following the lead of James, a three-time All-NBA First Team defender who finished fourth behind Chandler, OKC's Serge Ibaka and Orlando's Dwight Howard in DPOY voting. James has been able to dominate his individual battle with friend and fellow All-Star Anthony while shooting 18-for-32 from the field himself. Dwyane Wade has been tremendously efficient, shooting 19-for-31 in the series.
Without Shumpert, New York has had to rely on team defense and has simply had too many holes to make up for his absence. J.R. Smith and Landry Fields simply can't match up. Miami is shooting over 50 percent in the series and has yet to be challenged, but enters Thursday's game with the mindset that they can't afford to let the Knicks find their footing, especially with Stoudemire and Lin hoping to rush back and make an impact in the series. Going up 3-0 would likely quench those fires. but the Heat may have to do without the services of All-Star forward Chris Bosh, who returned to Miami to be with his wife for the delivery of a new child.
Miami has covered or pushed in all five 2012 meetings, all but one of which has gone under the posted total. Dating back to the start of the 2010 season, New York and Miami have combined for unders in seven of nine showdowns. The combined 198 points in Game 2 did eclipse the closing total of 185 and oddsmakers have pushed the ‘over/under’ for Game 3 up to 186.
Senior odds consultant Mike Pierce of Sportsbook.com tells VegasInsider.com that this contest is getting major action. He said, “We’re going to have the biggest decision of the year in the NBA for tonight’s Heat-Knicks Game 3, and the volume is directly related to the days off between each playoff game.”
“Right now, over 90% of the action is on Miami -5 and 95% of the money-line bets are on the Heat (-240) as well.”
Oklahoma at City at Dallas
Oklahoma City will be filled with emotion as it heads back to the scene where last year's championship dreams painfully ended. The Mavericks clinched their ticket to the NBA Finals by eliminating the Thunder 4-1 in the 2011 Western Conference Finals, but are now simply attempting to get back into this first-round series after failing to close out two winnable games in OKC.
The Thunder actually won their only game of last year's series in Dallas and won big in their last regular-season visit (95-86) on Feb. 1, so they won't be shook by the change of venue, especially since they have won six of seven meetings with the Mavericks in 2011-12, including a pair of exhibition games before the start of this accelerated season. These teams know one another extremely well, but that's precisely why Dallas is such a dangerous foe for the team many expect to reach this year's finals.
Dirk Nowitzki has been a beast in both playoff showdowns, exhibiting the form that confounded Miami last June and helped deliver Dallas' first NBA championship. Shooting 18-for-37 from the field and 20-for-21 from the free-throw line, Nowitzki is averaging 28 points per game in the series and has proven that even Ibaka is no match for his offensive game. Tag-team partner Jason Terry has come off the bench to chip in an average of 16.5 points on 12-for-23 shooting, so considering how well he typically performs in the familiar confines of American Airlines Center, the Thunder have to anticipate they'll have their hands full once again.
As is forever the case with this Thunder squad, there's controversy regarding how often point guard Russell Westbrook shoots instead of distributes, especially since he's matched three-time scoring championship Kevin Durant with 44 field-goal attempts in the series. Westbrook is actually averaging a team-best 28.5 points per game, so don't expect him to alter his approach, especially with Jason Kidd as his primary defender. The crafty future Hall-of-Famer hasn't been able to make an impact against the more athletic Westbrook, who has been able to drive by him at will, getting into the teeth of Dallas' interior defense and generating breakdowns. James Harden, whose effectiveness was in doubt coming into the postseason after taking that nasty elbow from Metta World Peace a few weeks back, has looked like his normal self off the bench, averaging 17 points through the first two encounters. He's shooting 19-for-20 from the free-throw line.
Expect the outcome of Game 3 to hinge on how effective the Mavericks can be in controlling the paint. Brendan Haywood will start at center, but with Tyson Chandler now in New York, Rick Carlisle has had to rely on untested Ian Mahinmi and Brandan Wright to help make an impact against Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins. The Mavs held their own in the rebounding department in Oklahoma City but have to take that part of their game up a notch if they are to get back into this series.
Dallas has been an underdog in five of its last six meetings with the Thunder, covering every single time it has gotten points. Tonight, the Mavericks opened as one-point favorites and the number has been spiked up to 3 1/2-points at most betting shops. Ironically, Oklahoma City's lone cover against Dallas in 2012 came as a one-point 'dog in the aforementioned Feb. 1 visit to Dallas.
The first two games in Oklahoma City went ‘over’ the total with numbers closing at 192 1/2 and 193 points. For Game 3, the number is up 194½ points and bettors should know that the two meetings played in Dallas saw a combined 187 and 181 points posted.