Heat at Thunder Game 2: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5, 196)
THE STORY: The Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder gave fans exactly what they were expecting in the opener of the NBA Finals: an action-packed, end-to-end game featuring sensational plays at both ends. Kevin Durant emerged as the hero in Game 1 and will look to lead the Thunder to victory in the second game of the best-of-seven Thursday night. Durant poured in 17 of his game-high 36 points in the fourth quarter as the Thunder rallied from 13 points down to secure the victory.
ABOUT THE HEAT: LeBron James didn't have the kind of game that lifted Miami to victories over Boston in Games 6 and 7 of the East finals, but he was still solid in defeat. James reached the 30-point plateau in a Finals contest for the first time in his career, but it wasn't enough as he fell to 2-9 all-time in championship games. The Heat were badly outscored in transition and had no answer for Durant, who knocked down one shot after another in the pivotal final frame. James credited Oklahoma City with playing near-perfect basketball over the final 12 minutes. "They didn't make many mistakes in the fourth quarter," he said.
ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City looked nervous in the early going, but didn't take long to shake off the jitters. Durant became the fourth-youngest player in NBA history to surpass the 35-point plateau in a Finals game, knocking down four 3-pointers and adding eight rebounds. He had plenty of help - particularly from point guard Russell Westbrook, who scored 27 points and added 11 assists and eight rebounds. The two of them outscored the Heat 41-40 in the second half. Thabo Sefolosha excelled on the defensive end, limiting James to seven points on 29 percent shooting when he was guarding him.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Westbrook became the first player to record 25 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds in a Finals game since Charles Barkley accomplished the feat for the Phoenix Suns in 1993.
2. Going into this season, the team that wins the opening game of the Finals has gone on to claim the NBA championship 72 percent of the time.
3. Oklahoma City is 9-0 at home in the postseason.
TRENDS:
Heat are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Heat are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Over is 6-1 in Heat last 7 overall.
Over is 11-2 in Thunder last 13 games as a favorite.
PREDICTION: Thunder 102, Heat 98.
Game 2: Heat-Thunder
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Thunder needed a massive rally to clinch the Western Conference championship over the Spurs, as Oklahoma City nearly repeated that effort in its Game 1 victory in the NBA Finals over Miami. After the Heat built a 13-point advantage halfway through the second quarter, the Thunder slowly crept back before pulling away for a 105-94 triumph to cover as five-point favorites. OKC leaned on its two young guns to take home the first franchise win in the NBA Finals since 1996.
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 63 points, while scoring 23 points in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback. The Heat led 54-43 with a minute remaining in the first half before the Thunder pulled off a mini 4-0 run to cut the halftime deficit to 54-47. Miami cashed as three-point underdogs in the first half, while the 'over' of 97 ½ hit. LeBron James put together his most productive quarter in the second with 15 points, but finished with 30 points on 11-of-24 shooting from the floor.
Oklahoma City easily covered as six-point favorites in the second half by outscoring Miami, 58-40 in the final 24 minutes. The legs fell apart for Erik Spoelstra's team, playing their eighth game since Memorial Day, as Miami shot 3-for-16 from three-point range after drilling five of its first six attempts from downtown. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh each struggled from the floor by making 11 of 30 shots for 30 points, even though Shane Battier picked up the slack with an impressive 17-point effort.
The Thunder won their ninth playoff game in nine tries at Chesapeake Energy Arena, as OKC improved to 6-3 ATS at home this postseason. Even though the third member of Oklahoma City's young trio, James Harden, scored just five points, Nick Collison put together a strong game off the bench by tallying eight points and pulling down 10 boards. The 'over' has hit in four consecutive contests for the Thunder, as Scott Brooks' club has eclipsed the 100-point mark in eight of the last nine games.
Obviously the biggest question is whether or not the Heat can bounce back in Game 2. Recent history says there's not a good chance at that, even though Miami was on the wrong side of a 95-93 loss to Dallas last June, as the Mavericks rebounded from a series opening loss. Over the last eight Finals, teams that lose the opener are just 3-5 SU and 3-4-1 ATS in Game 2's, while the 'over' is a strong 5-2-1 in this span.
Listed in bold below are the teams that lost the NBA Finals openers and how they fared in Game 2.
Game 2 of the NBA Finals (2004-2011)
2011 Dallas (+4.5) 95 @ Miami 93 PUSH 188
2010 Boston (+6) 103 @ L.A. Lakers 94 OVER 192.5
2009 L.A. Lakers 101 vs. Orlando (+6.5) 96 UNDER 202
2008 Boston 108 vs. L.A. Lakers (-1.5) 102 OVER 191.5
2007 San Antonio 103 vs. Cleveland (+7) 92 OVER 175.5
2006 Dallas 99 vs. Miami (+4.5) 85 UNDER 189
2005 San Antonio 97 vs. Detroit (+4.5) 76 OVER 171.5
2004 L.A. Lakers (-8) 99 vs. Detroit 91 OVER 171
The Thunder improved to 3-7 ATS the last 10 home games off a home victory in Game 1, while winning all four times in this situation in the playoffs. Miami has put together a poor 3-8 SU/ATS record since March on the road off a loss, while going 0-3 SU/ATS as an away underdog overall.
VegasInsider.com's Chris David says it's easy to follow the favorite train right now, "This year's postseason has allowed gamblers to ride some waves to the cashier. San Antonio's 20-game winning streak was incredible for bettors. Also, you know the books weren't happy that the favorites were incredible in the second round (17-5 SU, 15-7 ATS) against the number. Those runs were solid, but the last hot streak of the playoffs might be the best yet and it's quietly putting the old adage that 'Defenses win Championships' to rest."
The Thunder are putting up consistent offensive numbers, as David points out that the Thunder and 'over' is the way to go, "In this year's playoffs, Oklahoma City has watched the 'over' go 12-4 (75%) and that includes a lucky ticket in Game 1. The Heat and Thunder had a nice pace at the half with a combined 101 points but the game slowed down as the margin got close. Despite the half-court play, 'over' bettors caught 21 late points in the final three minutes and celebrated - again."
"The total for Game 2 is hovering between 195 and 196 points. Based on OKC's red-hot offense, you either pass on the rest of this series or play OKC and the 'over.' The Thunder has put up triple-digits in 11 of their 16 playoff games and the worst effort came in a 77-point performance against the Lakers in Game 2 of their second round series. I mention that affair because that's the only time gamblers would've lost both ends of the OKC-OVER combination."
David mentions the fact that there was money to be made on the Western Conference champions throughout this postseason, "If you've blindly bet Oklahoma City and the 'over' in all 16 of its playoff games for one-unit ($100), you would be sitting on a profit of $1,420. I like to believe that all things balance out in the long run but going against this current streak would take a serious argument."
The series price on the Thunder rose to -280 (Bet $280 to win $100) after their Game 1 win, while the Heat sits at +260 (Bet $100 to win $260). Basically, OKC has split the next six games to win this bet, with three of those contests at home where they are unbeaten in the playoffs.
The Thunder is listed as a slightly higher favorite in Game 2 by laying 5 ½ points after opening up as five-point 'chalk.' The game tips off at 9:00 PM EST on Thursday and can be seen nationally on ABC.
NBA Preview
Miami @ Oklahoma City (1-0) -- Thunder bench was +17 in 71:00 on floor in game 1; Collison had 10 boards in 21:00, five on offensive end, as Miami's bench was -19 in only 46:00 on floor. Collison was +13 in his 21:00. Home side won all three series meetings this year, with Heat losing by 16-11 in two visits here. Old hand Derek Fisher has won five rings; he had a steadying hand when Miami was up double digits in first half. Oklahoma City is 9-0 at home in playoffs (6-3 vs spread); to me, the key for them is Westbrook being a facilitator and making sure Durant has the ball in key spots. Miami will give a better effort here, its natural after losing Game 1, but Oklahoma City has more good players, it could be as simple as that. Six of last seven Miami games went over the total.
Armadillosports.com
MIAMI (58 - 27) at OKLAHOMA CITY (60 - 22)
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-35 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 39-31 ATS (+4.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami at Oklahoma City
Miami: 6-14 ATS on the road after a game where they failed to cover the spread
Oklahoma City: 20-8 ATS against Southeast division opponents
Thunder Look To Take Two-Nothing lead
Sportspic.com
The Oklahoma City Thunder has won all nine of their home games in these playoffs. With the chance to go up two-games-to-none on the Miami Heat in the NBA finals, you can expect Kevin Durant and company to do everything in their power to extend their perfect sports betting online record at home. Durant finished game one with a game-high 36 points, eight rebounds, and four assists, another illustration of just how dominant of an offensive player he has become.
The fact that Durant was once again the most dominant player in an Oklahoma City playoff game only adds to his reputation as one of the best in the game, if not the best. Lebron James finished game one with six less points than Durant despite taking four more shots, and will need to be that much better with both Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh struggling to find their form.
There is no doubt that injuries have played a significant role in both Wade and Bosh struggling from the field in game one, but the bottom line is that with another NBA title on the line the Heat are going to have to find a way to win with what they have. Lebron was absolutely dominant with Miami facing elimination in the Eastern conference finals against the Boston Celtics, and he will have to find a way to lead his team to victory on the road in this series if he is going to avoid becoming the first three-time NBA MVP to lose in his first three trips to the NBA finals.
While Durant’s numbers were better than Lebron’s in game one, he did have the luxury of getting 27 points from Russell Westbrook, even though Westbrook did take more shots overall. It is hard to compare Lebron and Durant as long as the latter continues to get more from his supporting cast, but the bottom line is that with Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and James Harden continuing to get the job done, the Thunder simply have more options. Harden only had five points on six shots off the bench in game one, but if Oklahoma City needs more from him, he will be there.
The Thunder got the better of Miami despite not needing much from Harden and Ibaka at the offensive end, and that could be a sign of major trouble ahead for the Heat. Betting fans saw what Lebron could do when he takes over a game in the Eastern conference finals, but with Wade and Bosh continuing to struggle, Oklahoma City could take its second straight win even if James is able to duplicate that effort.
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder