Heat at Celtics Game 6: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (+1.5, 179.5)
THE STORY: The Boston Celtics are one victory away from being a surprise entrant in the NBA Finals The Miami Heat are one loss away from being stamped huge underachievers. Boston has won three consecutive games to take a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference finals as its veteran group seemingly finds an extra competitive gear when needed. Miami has lost 15 of its last 16 games in Boston and is hopeful of forcing a Game 7 on Saturday.
ABOUT THE HEAT: Forward LeBron James is averaging 31.8 points and 10 rebounds in the series but the pressure is on with Game 6 being do or die. The three-time MVP has a reputation of wilting in these situations, meaning the contest presents a big opportunity for him to deliver a statement-type performance. Forward Chris Bosh returned from a lower abdominal strain to play 14-plus minutes in Miami’s Game 5 loss and is expected to play a bigger role in Game 6. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra called for his team to avoid listening to outsiders leading into the pivotal game. “This is what the playoffs are all about,” Spoelstra said. “It tests your collective character and your resolve. And this is the journey that we have to be on right now for whatever reason.”
ABOUT THE CELTICS: The veteran trio of post player Kevin Garnett, forward Paul Pierce and guard Ray Allen were said to be on their last stand entering the series and are on the verge of making it highly memorable if it indeed turns out that way. Garnett had 26 points and 11 rebounds in Game 5 for his fourth double-double of the series and Pierce made a clutch late-game 3-pointer to highlight a 19-point performance. Allen is persevering while dealing with an ankle injury that hinders his shooting. “You have to leave it to fate – whatever is going to happen will happen,” Allen said of the future. “Right now is what you have to be concerned with. We’ll look back over these years at all the opportunities we had, all the great games we played and the big shots that we made. We’ll talk about the tough games. Right now, we are in the present moment and that’s the most important.”
TRENDS:
- Heat are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Boston.
- Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Celtics' last four overall.
- Celtics are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games as a home underdog.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Heat guard Dwyane Wade scored a series-high 27 points and has four 20-point outings in the series despite shaky first-half play.
2. Boston point guard Rajon Rondo had just seven points on 3-of-15 shooting in Game 5 but recorded 13 assists to break Bob Cousy’s franchise record for career playoff double-digit assists performances with his 39th such game.
3. Miami forward Udonis Haslem has averaged 15.5 rebounds over the past two games and has three double-digit rebound games in the series.
Game 6, Heat-Celtics
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Celtics were two losses away from having their season end and the window nearly slam shut on the Big Three of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen. However, Boston has stormed back with three consecutive victories, while looking to end Miami's season in tonight's Game 6 at TD Garden. The Heat has cooled down after taking the 2-0 lead, but the most disappointing defeat came in Tuesday's 94-90 home setback in Game 5.
Miami led by 13 points early on in the crucial Game 5, but Boston rallied to cut the deficit to two at the half. Interestingly enough, that was the first time the Heat held the advantage at halftime in any of the first five games of this series, but Miami failed to cash as 4½-point favorites in the first half. Pierce and Rajon Rondo combined to make three field goals in the first two quarters, while LeBron James paced the Heat with 18 points and Chris Bosh returned from an abdominal injury to score nine early points.
The Celtics managed to tie the game at 50-50 with less than eight minutes remaining in the third quarter, but Miami looked like it was ready to pull away with a quick 9-0 spurt. Boston's defense stepped up by limiting Miami to one point in the final 5:41 of the third period, while reeling off a 15-1 run, putting Heat -7 ½ tickets in doubt.
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In this back-and-forth affair, Erik Spoelstra's club put together a 16-4 run to regain a 78-72 advantage halfway through the fourth quarter, thanks to 13 points from James and Dwyane Wade. The Celtics pulled through with a pair of huge three-pointers from Pierce and Mickael Pietrus in the final minutes, as Boston not only cashed as 7½-point 'dogs, but also on the money-line at +350.
As the series shifts back to Beantown, that spells trouble for the Heat, who has dropped 14 of the last 15 trips to TD Garden. The only victory in this span came in overtime in Game 4 of the second round last postseason, as Miami is just 1-10 ATS the previous 11 games in Boston. Also, the C's own an 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS home playoff record, but this will be only the second time that Boston is listed as a home underdog this postseason.
Since so much of the Heat's focus usually falls on James, it's interesting to note that the three-time MVP hasn't won an elimination game on the road in four tries (Cleveland went 1-3 ATS), while this is the first time James' back is against the wall in a Miami uniform on the highway.
From the player props standpoint tonight, Sportsbook.ag lists total points for James at 31 (shaded to the 'over' at -130) and 24½ for Wade (shaded to the 'over' at -135). Wade has started slow in the first half in each of the five games so far in the series, averaging a shade above six points. Even though Rondo struggled in Game 5 by scoring just seven points, Sportsbook.ag has set the Boston's point guard's points, rebounds, and assists total at 36½ tonight (shaded to the 'over' at -125).
VegasInsider.com's Chris David take a look at several total notes for tonight's Game 6, "Total players have seen the 'over' cash in four of the five games in this series and you can make an argument that the number has been too low. None of the closing totals have been higher than 180 and Game 6's number is hovering right around 179 points. The 'under' should've cashed in Game 5 and was definitely the right side but the game turned into a free throw shooting contest and we saw 25 combined points scored in the final three minutes, 10 from the charity stripe."
"The first-half finally went 'under' on Tuesday, which was the first time it occurred in this series. But the second-half 'over' cashed as the two teams combined for 102 points. Based on the pace of this series, I would lean 'under' again and hope neither team blows up offensively. If you get the tight game, you could have bonus points put up at the end but you can also have possession basketball and that's great for any 'under' ticket."
David points out that even though the Celtics can close tonight, betting Boston to advance hasn't worked yet in this situation, "While fading Boston at home in the playoffs has been a poor investment, you have to be aware that this team didn't put away Atlanta and Philadelphia when it had the opportunity. The word 'comfortable' comes to mind with the Celtics, but maybe knowing that a possible Game 7 on the road in South Florida will have Doc Rivers stressing urgency at home."
The Celtics have won only three of 13 times in the Big 3 era in their first opportunity to close a series, including an 0-2 mark this postseason. However, David notes that nine of those losses came on the highway, as Boston is 2-1 at home in the first shot of these closeout contests. Meanwhile, since the All-Star break, the Celtics have two losses at TD Garden and both came by exactly one point.
The Heat is set as two-point road favorites, as the last team to trail 3-2 and to be listed as 'away' chalk was Orlando in 2011, but the Magic fell to the Hawks and got eliminated. Tonight's Game 6 tips off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.
NBA Preview
Heat @ Celtics (3-2) -- Miami has to win here (they're 0-4 in this arena this season) or else its another playoff failure. Home teams are now 9-2 in this round, after the Thunder won last night; tremendous pressure on the Heat here, to win as expected, but Boston PG Rondo has kicked the Miami guards' butts, with 84 points, 48 assists last four games. James/ Wade were 21-47 from floor last game, rest of team 11-35. James has taken total of 21 foul shots in last three games, after taking 24 in Game 2 alone. Over is now 8-3 in 11 Celtic playoff wins; under is 4-2-1 in their losses, so containing Rondo is job #1. And #2. And #3.
Armadillosports.com
MIAMI (56 - 26) at BOSTON (50 - 34)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
BOSTON is 39-65 ATS (-32.5 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 18-8 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 17-9 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
16 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston
Miami is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami at Boston
Miami: 5-14 ATS away off an ATS loss
Boston: 15-7 ATS at home off an Over
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
After an uninspiring series win over Philadelphia and a pair of opening losses in the Eastern Conference Finals the Boston Celtic were all but written off. But, three games later the Celtics are one win away from clinching a trip to the NBA finals. Plenty of reasons to back Boston as Celtics' have had great success against Miami in Beantown winning 15-of-16 encounters with a profitable 12-4 mark at the betting window including a 6-1 SU/ATS stretch in second season. If that were not enough, consider that Celtics' are on a 15-6-1 ATS stretch on home court and that Heat are on a 2-6 ATS slide these playoffs off a game scoring <100 points. The betting market has Celtics' 1.5 to 2.0 underdogs depending on locale with the total set at 179.5.